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THURSDAY,  NOVEMBER 5,  2009

THE REAL WORLD INTRUDES - AT 11:05 P.M. ET:  Well, the real world intruded at Fort Hood today.  The killer wasn't, apparently, affected by President Obama's outreach to the Muslim world. 

And the real world has now intruded somewhere else.  Palestinian President Abbas, on whom the Obama administration had staked a great deal in the Mideast "peace process," has decided not to stand for reelection in January, throwing the future of the Palestinian territories into chaos.  The New York Times reports: 

RAMALLAH, West Bank — The Palestinian president, Mahmoud Abbas, warned on Thursday that he would not seek re-election, the latest sign that the Obama administration’s drive to broker a Middle East peace accord, one of President Obama’s key foreign policy goals, has fallen into disarray.

Mr. Abbas, 74, has threatened to step aside before, but coming immediately after Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton’s visit to the region aimed at reviving a peace process between Israel and the Palestinians, his announcement laid bare the deepening tensions over the administration’s failure to extract an Israeli settlement freeze or any concessions from Arab leaders.

Mrs. Clinton’s visit, which she characterized as a success, sowed anger and confusion among Palestinians and other Arabs after she praised as “unprecedented” the offer by the Israeli prime minister, Benjamin Netanyahu, to slow down, but not stop, construction of Jewish settlements in the West Bank.

In a televised speech from his office in Ramallah, Mr. Abbas, who replaced Yasir Arafat five years ago as president of the Palestinian Authority, said, “I have told my brethren in the P.L.O. that I have no desire to run in the forthcoming election,” referring to the Palestine Liberation Organization.

It was not clear whether Mr. Abbas, considered a moderate, pro-Western leader, was determined to quit, although he said his decision was final. He may stay in his post regardless, because it is far from certain that elections he has called for January will be held then and there are few alternatives to him as leader.

COMMENT:  This is the irrational, unstable regime that Obama expects will sign some kind of peace agreement.  Not anytime soon.

November 5,  2009

COMMENT ON FORT HOOD - AT 10:16 P.M. ET:  The shootings at Fort Hood are a culmination of a number of incidents recently in the United States - arrests in Texas, Illinois, Colorado, and New York for planned or contemplated terrorist acts.  All these things, and especially the tragedy today, show how vulnerable we are, even though today's outrage is not being described, officially, as a terrorist act.

And these events follow others of recent years - a deranged Muslim breaking into a community center in Seattle and killing a worker; another misguided Muslim running down students at the University of North Carolina, an incident desperately covered up by politically correct campus authorities; the Muslim who acted as the Beltway killer in and around Washington, D.C.; the murder of an American soldier by a fellow soldier, a Muslim, just before the Iraq War; the killing of an agent at an Israeli airline counter in Los Angeles. 

Every time there's an "incident" we're told it's "isolated."  Well, maybe these individuals aren't members of the same group, and maybe they haven't taken the same oath or have the same secret handshake.  But, frankly, there are too many "isolated incidents" for my comfort. 

The great majority of American Muslims, of course, aren't involved in terrorism.  We have Muslim communities near me.  I patronize their stores without hesitation.  It's wrong to paint the entire Muslim population as tainted.

But there is something terrible going on in the Muslim world - a diseased ideology that must be confronted and discussed openly.  The forces of political correctness have been far too successful in covering up every incident and labeling any discussion as "racism."  Oscar Hammerstein II, in "South Pacific," wrote that "you've got to be taught to hate."  That is correct, and too many Muslims are accepting the mentality of hate.  And the chic and fashionable in our "intellectual" classes will do nothing about it except beg for "understanding" of "other cultures."

We have work to do.  We now learn that today's shooter, who leaves behind eleven mourning families, posted suspicious items on the internet six months ago.  He's an Army officer, yet nothing was done about it.  Hell must be raised.

FORT HOOD UPDATE - AT 9:30 P.M. ET:  The brief press conference held by Lt. Gen. Cone, commanding officer at Fort Hood, is over.  He said there was a single shooter, now in custody.  He said there was no evidence of a terrorist act, although I have no idea how he knows this, since the shooter isn't talking.  We didn't learn much at the press conference, except that the shooter is alive. 

FORT HOOD NEWS CONFERENCE - AT 9:19 P.M. ET:  Incredibly, the Army has just announced at a press conference that the Fort Hood shooter is not dead, but is in custody.  This is a terrible blunder by the Army.  The story of the shooter being killed was out there for hours, and the Army surely knew it wasn't accurate.  It should have been corrected earlier.

We're monitoring the press conference now. 

FORT HOOD - AT 8:27 P.M. ET:  We are still awaiting that Fort Hood press conference.  There are now wide reports of a person in custody in connection with the killings today.  The main shooter, of course, was killed by police officers.

One item that's come out repeatedly is that the shooter got a poor evaluation when he worked as a military psychiatrist in the Washington, D.C. area.  If that's the case, why was he assigned to treat troops returning from combat at Fort Hood?  Clearly, this will have to be investigated. 

There are also reports that the shooter expressed the open belief that Muslims had a right to kill their "oppressors" - meaning American troops in Muslim countries.  He was also disenchanted with the US Army, which had educated him in medicine, and was fighting deployment to a Muslim country.

FORT HOOD - AT 7:54 P.M. ET:  The congressman representing the Fort Hood area says that a new person has been taken into custody.  There are also multiple reports - unconfirmed - that there was shooting during the massacre that involved rifles and possibly automatic weapons.  Initially, we were told that the shooter only had handguns.  We emphasize again that reports of larger weapons are unconfirmed.  Many reports made in good faith during incidents like this turn out to be wrong.  We are awaiting a press conference.

FORT HOOD - AT 7:40 P.M. ET:  We're now being told that the two soldiers held in connection with today's shooting have been released, and were apparently not involved.

FORT HOOD SHOOTER - AT 7:18 P.M. ET:  Fox News has now interviewed an associate of the dead shooter.  We learn that the murderer, a Muslim, had views hostile to American foreign policy.  We stress that we cannot make a connection at this point between political views and action, but at least Fox is dealing with the issue, and it is dealing with it in a responsible, restrained way.  Maybe that's why Fox is so successful.   

FORT HOOD - AT 7:08 P.M. ET:  I'm now beginning to see, and I'm not shocked by it, some reporting on the Fort Hood killings that borders on the vulgar.  Some TV types, on CNN and MSNBC, are discussing the slaughter as if it were just a mental-health incident.  They're talking about the multiple deployments of troops.  There is no evidence whatever that this had anything to do with today's horror.  We do not have information.  But the usual suspects will be out in force on the tube and in print "explaining" the killings in terms that push the viewer away from dealing with ideology.  (And I don't even know if ideology was involved.)  Discipline, people.  Discipline.

FORT HOOD SHOOTER - AT 6:52 P.M. ET:  We now learn that the Fort Hood shooter, killed by police officers during his rampage, was an Army psychiatrist.

BULLETIN - AT 6:15 P.M. ET: The shooter at Fort Hood has been identified as US Army Major Malik Nadal Hasan, described as a mental health professional.  Clearly, that is a Muslim name, and this will cause considerable anger and trouble.  We don't know the names of the other others in custody.  We do not know if there was actually a conspiracy.

Just before the Iraq War, a Muslim soldier in the US Army, Sgt. Asan Akbar of the 101st Airborne Division's 326th Engineer Battalion, threw hand grenades into an Army tent in Kuwait, killing Capt. Christopher Scott Seifert, 27, of Easton, Pa.

LATEST ON FORT HOOD - AT 5:41 P.M. ET:  With the understanding that we cannot independely confirm this, TV reporters are saying that they now have the name of the Fort Hood shooter.  Several reporters say that the name itself hints at a motive.

Obviously, that is code language.  We must be careful here.  This could get very volatile, and ideology may be involved.  In the American tradition, guilt is individual unless proved otherwise.  There is going to be an extensive investigation.  We will report facts here today as we learn them.

FORT HOOD UPDATE - AT 5:27 P.M. ET:  The shootings occurred at the readiness center, where soldiers are prepared for overseas deployment.  There is some borderline irresponsible speculation going on about gang activity at Fort Hood, lower standards for entrance into the Army, and post traumatic stress syndrome among troops returning from Iraq and Afghanistan.  We emphasize that, at this hour, we know absolutely nothing about the background or motivation of the perpetrator or perpetrators

FORT HOOD - AT 5:04 P.M. ET:  We are following the news from Fort Hood, Texas, the largest US Army base in the world.  As many of you know, a shooting has occurred in which 12 people, including an attacker, have been killed, and at least 31 have been wounded.  We do not know definitively whether all the casualties are military personnel. 

The gunman, using a handgun or handguns, was a soldier, or at least in military uniform.  Two others individuals believed to be soldiers have also been apprehended, although their role, if any, is not yet known.

There will, of course, be wild speculation.  We don't know the names of the alleged assailant or possible co-conspirators, or their motivation.  Stand by.

November 5, 2009

DIDN'T THEY NOTICE THE ELECTION? - AT 10:23 A.M. ET:  In the midst of the most severe economic downturn since the great Depression, in the face of increasing skepticism from many scientists, and despite the results of Tuesday's elections, stalwarts of the flaky party moved forward with environmental legislation to save the world, the Universe, even local neighborhoods:

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - The U.S. Senate Environment and Public Works Committee on Thursday approved a Democratic climate change bill that would require industry to cut emissions of carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases 20 percent by 2020 from 2005 levels.

With Republicans boycotting the committee's work saying more analysis of the legislation was needed, 10 Democrats voted to approve the legislation and one Democrat, Senator Max Baucus, voted against it.

The bill will now become one of several initiatives aimed at attacking global warming. Senator John Kerry is leading an effort with some Republicans and the White House to craft a compromise bill, which likely would not be voted on by the full Senate until next year at the earliest.

COMMENT:  Although some similar legislation will probably get through the House, there's a good chance it can be stopped in the full Senate, although Al Gore may fly in aboard a private jet to lobby for it and show movies about the Senate gym sinking into the mud of global warming.  Dems do not have in the Senate the kind of hard-line liberal base they have in the House.

November 5, 2009   Permalink 

AND YET, THE LEADERSHIP PUSHES ON - AT 8:52 A.M. ET:  Despite the new fears of moderates - see the story just below - the Dem leadership in the House is trying to keep the vote on health-care "reform" on the calendar for Saturday.  Their belief, apparently, is that this is their moment.  Their moment for what is another story.  The Washington Times reports:

Leaders and at least a handful of pro-life Democrats appear to be close to a deal on language that would assure them that taxpayers would not have to pay for abortions, which is the most significant hurdle to final passage.

The 10-year, $1.2 trillion House bill would establish a government-run insurance plan, require individuals to obtain insurance and employers to provide it, and provide tax subsidies to help the poor and middle class obtain coverage.

But can they pass it?

It's not clear yet whether Democrats have the votes required to pass the bill. House Majority Leader Steny H. Hoyer, when asked whether he has the 218 votes, simply said, "We'll see."

Not a great vote of confidence.

Republicans are not silent, but have been for too long:

Republicans hope to be able to offer their reform plan, released Wednesday, which would allow insurance companies to sell across state lines, establish high-risk insurance pools and limit medical malpractice awards. They rebuffed the idea that Democrats would try to pass the bill with one day of formal debate.

"The idea that Congress would enact a government takeover of one-sixth of the American economy and debate it for half a working day would be deeply offensive to the millions of Americans would cherish limited government," said Rep. Mike Pence of Indiana, chairman of the House Republican Conference.

Okay, guys, where have you been?  Introducing a GOP plan three days before the final vote is the kind of thinking that got the party defeated last year. 

And as far as a debate taking only half a day being "deeply offensive" to millions of Americans, forget it.  The people running this show don't care, and they've made it clear.  Got that message, Republicans?

The first objective should be to delay the vote.  Polls show that Americans are already against this bill.  The better informed they are, the more against it most will become.

November 5, 2009   Permalink

AH, FINALLY, THE LIGHT GOES ON - AT 8:29 A.M. ET:  The Politico reports that Democrats in Congress are looking around, deciding that they like the furniture and dining room, and figuring out ways to keep their jobs: 

Election Day losses in Virginia and New Jersey have congressional Democrats focused like never before on jobs — their own.

While the White House and party leaders are urging calm, Democratic incumbents from red states and Republican-leaning districts are anything but; Tuesday's statehouse defeats have left them acutely aware that their votes on health care reform and other major Obama initiatives could be career-enders in 2010 or beyond.

“I should be nervous,” said Rep. Parker Griffith, a freshman Democrat from Huntsville, Ala.

I would say so.  Alabama isn't known as Pelosi country.

House Democrats, forced to take a tough vote on a controversial cap-and-trade climate change bill in June, may have to vote as earlier as this weekend on the even more controversial health care bill.

And...

Democratic Sen. Jim Webb — who watched Republican Bob McDonnell and other statewide candidates erase years of Democratic gains in his home state of Virginia — said Tuesday’s results show that Republicans are “energized from what happened last year” but also that “people up here on our side need to get their message straighter, too.”

"Slow down" seems to be the message that moderate Democrats are sending to their leaders, some of whom are far more sensitive to the party's left wing:

As Pelosi’s office ordered members to stay in town for a possible Saturday night House vote on health care, other Democrats were suggesting that it's time to take the foot off the gas.

As members came to grips with the election returns, Rep. Frank Kratovil Jr. (D-Md.) said he wants “as much time as I possibly can [have] to review both sides and make the best decision I can make” on the health care bill.

In other words, he's got to be against the current version.  Not good news for Nancy.

Maine Sen. Olympia Snowe, the lone Republican to vote for a health care bill, said Tuesday’s results should slow Democrats down on health care — and “certainly gives pause on how you approach things.”

If they've lost Olympia...

Sen. Joe Lieberman (I-Conn.), who’s threatened to filibuster the health care bill if it isn’t changed before it goes to a vote, said he’s sensing that public fears over the rising national debt “may affect” the Democrats’ broader agenda, noting that there’s been “a very large and quick move of independents” away from the Democratic Party and that public fears of the rising debt are at a “tipping point.”

COMMENT:  The House vote on health care, if it actually comes this Saturday, will be the first post-election test of the moderates' fears.  I wouldn't be shocked if the vote is postponed.  If it's held, that means that Nancy Pelosi believes she has the numbers to win.

Historically, moderates have often caved in to the leadership at the last minute.  Watch the action during the next two days.  It could tell us a great deal about the fate of the Obama agenda.

November 5, 2009   Permalink

AMERICAN IDEALS? - AT 8:13 A.M. ET:  The Iranian opposition is marching, and the American response is, well, un-American.  The Wall Street Journal issues a powerful indictment of the Obama White House, which has gone out of its way not to make any emotional connection with the democracy demonstrators who've once again taken to the Tehran streets, this time to break up an anti-American march: 

Tens of thousands of protestors yesterday braved police batons and tear gas canisters in the streets of Iranian cities to denounce their theocratic rulers and call for a change of regime. In spite of repression by the Basiji thugs and the West's short attention span, the Green Revolution lives on.

On this, the 30th anniversary of the hostage taking at the U.S. Embassy, their message was to a large degree intended for America and President Obama. The opposition hijacked the day, usually an occasion to denounce the Great Satan, to declare their desire to break with that past and build a free Iran. They marched alongside state-sanctioned rallies, before their protests were broken up violently.

And the response from Mr. Obama?  Not exactly, "Tear down this wall!"

Knowing the opposition was planning to march, Mr. Obama issued his own statement the night before that instead chose to reach out to the regime. America, he said, "seeks a relationship with the Islamic Republic of Iran based upon mutual interest and mutual respect. We do not interfere in Iran's internal affairs." He went on to list the Administration's various efforts to appease the regime. So far and on all counts, the mullahs have rebuffed these entreaties.

The President made no mention of democracy or reference to the opposition directly, though in the last paragraph he did allow that "the world continues to bear witness to [Iranian peoples'] powerful calls for justice." Is this what he meant when he talked, at the start of his Presidency, about "restoring U.S. moral leadership"?

COMMENT:  I'm afraid that Mr. Obama comes from that class of left-wing "intellectuals" who regard democracy as simply one "narrative," no better or worse than any other "lifestyle choice."  So far, his has been the most freedom-indifferent American administration that we can recall. 

Mr. Obama's stark refusal to go to the Berlin Wall this week to commemorate the 20th anniversary of its fall proves the point.  Not interested.  Not important.  Old Reagan-era stuff. 

This is America?

November 5,  2009   Permalink

WEDNESDAY,  NOVEMBER 4,  2009

POLITICAL SUICIDE? - AT 10:24 P.M. ET:  Apparently, last night's results won't deter Field Marshal Pelosi and her loyal brigades.  Right off the cliff they run:

Nov. 4 (Bloomberg) -- Undeterred by Republican election triumphs in Virginia and New Jersey, Democratic leaders put the U.S. House on a path to vote as early as Saturday on the most sweeping overhaul of health-care policy in four decades.

The election of Republican governors in New Jersey and Virginia won’t affect how the House proceeds on legislation to extend insurance to 36 million people and create a government- run program to compete with private insurers, lawmakers said.

Party leaders signaled they’re ready for the House to begin debating the legislation and vote on its final passage by filing a 42-page amendment that made last-minute changes to the bill. The filing last night triggered a 72-hour waiting period that Democrats pledged to give Republicans before a vote.

“We are on the verge of doing something great,” House Speaker Nancy Pelosi told reporters today after meeting with lawmakers in Washington. “From my perspective, we won last night,” she said, pointing to Democratic wins in two House races to fill vacancies in California and New York.

COMMENT:  She will be cheered in Aspen, San Francisco, Manhattan and Beverly Hills.  Everywhere else?  Do you hear the silence?

November 4, 2009   Permalink

 
SARAH'S MONTH - AT 7:46 P.M. ET:  The elections are over, and the next bit of big political news this month will be the re-launch of Sarah Palin.  Her book comes out in two weeks.  There'll be a major book tour.  She'll be on "Oprah."  At some point I suspect she'll answer questions from the press.

The key question of course, is whether Sarah will be ready.  I like her, always have, but I've conceded before that she was not ready for a national campaign a year ago, and certainly not ready to handle the despicable behavior of some media outlets.  I hope she's done her homework.  She has psychological momentum from last night's election results, and people are endlessly fascinated with her.  Now she must position herself beyond the level of a political curiosity.  She has to be a stateswoman.

Reader Joseph J. Gallick alerts us to a piece about the speeches that the McCain operatives wouldn't let Sarah deliver on election night last year.  Fascinating stuff.  Recommended reading.

November 4, 2009   Permalink

IRANIANS IN THE STREETS - AT 7:02 P.M. ET:  This has been a day of major anti-government demonstrations in Iran.  Notice, please, the intense interest (yawn) on the part of the Obama administration, where the term "human rights" has about as much appeal as "Sarah Palin." 

Planet Iran, guided by our friend, Banafsheh Zand-Bonazzi, has been live-blogging the action here.  Remarkably, many of the demonstrators are chanting, "Obama, Obama, are you with us or with them," meaning the hated regime.  Again, no answer from the White House.  Must be planning the next party, or campaign trip.

This comes on the same day when Israel intercepted a huge Iranian arms shipment to Syria and Syria's chorus boys, Hezbollah.  It comes two days after Iran's supreme leader openly insulted America and its president.

Fox News is now running a segment called "Turmoil in Iran."  This is a time for intense pressure on a regime that defies international rules and is despised by its own people.  The president shows, as usual, no sense of urgency.

November 4, 2009   Permalink

THE ELECTIONS AND YOUR HEALTH - AT 2:27 P.M. ET:  It appears that the first impact of last night's elections will be felt in congressional attitudes toward Obamacare, the mammoth, 2,000-page health "reform" bill now sitting in the House.  Dick Morris believes the elections may mark the end for Obamacare:

...Virginia results are the most important. More than 80 Democratic congressmen and twenty senators come from states that John McCain carried in 2008. For them, the sudden switch in Virginia, a swing state that Obama actually carried, heralds tough political times ahead.

And...

Until last night, Democratic moderates, the so-called blue dogs, could bask in the light of their candidate’s success in 2008. But now they must hear hoof beats behind them. The party discipline on which Obama depends to pass a health-care program that Americans reject by 42 percent for, 55 percent against (Rasmussen again) will only work if beleaguered Democratic incumbents can wrap themselves in Obama’s cloak and tough out the popular criticism. But the limits of Obama’s drawing power are readily apparent in the Republicans’ 20-point victory in Virginia and the race in New Jersey.

And...

In the coming weeks, House Speaker Nancy Pelosi and Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid will be asking their troops to cast potentially career-ending votes for health-care changes, Medicare cuts, higher taxes, and fines on the uninsured. Whether they take that risk depends on their faith in Obama’s drawing power.

But the votes in Virginia, in particular, show the limits of Obama’s appeal. The winner, Bob McDonnell, won the attorney general’s race in the last election by a few tenths of a percent over the same opponent. That he coasted to so huge a victory in the swing state of Virginia now has to send a message to red-state Democratic congressmen: Obama may be able to survive in the deep water into which he is leading his party, but you can’t.

COMMENT:  In the past, the so-called Blue Dog Democrats have caved in to leadership pressure, facing a bit of heat back home.  But asking a Blue Dog to commit political suicide may just be too much for most of them.  Very interesting few months ahead as the Dem leaders, who'd walk off the cliff as liberals,  try to ram through their signature legislation on (cough) health care.

November 4, 2009   Permalink

QUOTE OF THE DAY - AT 1:19 P.M. ET:  From, natch, Nancy Pelosi, who was taught by daddy to put a good face on everything, so the neighbors would never know.  She assesses last night's elections:

"From our perspective we won last night," Pelosi told reporters during a Wednesday morning photo opportunity. "We had one race that we were engaged in, it was in northern New York, it was a race where a Republican has held the seat since the Civil War and we won that seat, so from our standpoint, no, a candidate was victorious who supports health care reform, and his remarks last night said this was a victory for health care reform and other initiatives for the American people."

COMMENT:  It is rumored that Speaker Pelosi is reincarnated from a Japanese admiral who told the Emperor, "Hey, if we hit Pearl Harbor, we got it licked." 

November 4, 2009   Permalink

AND IN THE REAL WORLD - AT 8:57 A.M. ET:  Now the president must get back to work and start dealing with Iran.  Yesterday, Iran's supreme leader essentially laughed out loud at the United States, stating that it was insane for Iran to negotiate anything with Washington.  Today, there is action at sea involving Israel and Iran, as The Jerusalem Post reports:

Special Navy forces discovered weapons and ammunition on a cargo ship overnight Tuesday, after boarding the Francop some 100 nautical miles west of Israel flying an Antiguan flag.

Defense officials said the 140-meter long Francop, captured near Cyprus, was carrying arms sent by Iran and destined for Syria and Hizbullah.

More than 60 tons of weaponry were on board, in dozens of containers. The Francop carried hundreds of containers.

A significant amount of 122 mm. Katyusha rockets, likely made in Iran, assault rifles, mortar shells and grenades were found on board.

Israel Radio reported that advanced anti-aircraft platforms not before found in the region were also on board.

COMMENT:  The New York Times, by the way, is downplaying this report, insisting that Israel provided no "proof" that the ship carried Iranian arms.  I guess the arms came from Shangri-La. 

By the time the "proof" is delivered, those arms will be in action against Western targets and Israel.

There has been no change in Iran's behavior since Obama took office.  No change whatsoever.

November 4,  2009   Permalink

BARONE ON THE ELECTIONS - AT 8:26 A.M. ET:  If there's one person we can depend on after an election to report the key points that often elude others, it's Michael Barone.  Some of his findings are pretty startling, and, at least for now, encouraging:

First, in the governor elections in Virginia and New Jersey, the Democratic candidate ran far behind Barack Obama’s percentages in 2008 and the Republican candidates ran ahead of George W. Bush’s percentages in 2004. The numbers are pretty daunting. In Virginia Creigh Deeds won 41% of the votes, way behind Barack Obama’s 53% in 2008. And in New Jersey Democratic incumbent Jon Corzine won 45% of the votes, way behind Obama’s 57% in 2008.

And...

In contrast, the Republican candidates won higher percentages than Bush won in the recent high-water mark of the Republican party in 2004. Republican Bob McDonnell won 59% in Virginia, well ahead of Bush’s 54%. And Republican Chris Christie won 49%, ahead of Bush’s 46%. On the basis of these numbers you could say—in races where the issues were reasonably congruent though not identical to national issues—that Democrats were performing far below their recent optimal levels and Republicans were performing well above them.

Ah, sunshine amidst the gloom of the age of Obama.

October 4, 2009

Second, and here I want to credit for this observations longtime Democratic pollster and political analyst Pat Caddell, affluent suburban voters moved sharply toward Republicans in 2009.

That's a key constituency, often critical.

Finally, third, what will be the impact of these elections on forthcoming votes in Congress on the Democratic leadership’s controversial and unpopular health legislation?  The Virginia Board of Elections give us some hints when it aggregates the results by congressional district. In the 2008 elections three Democrats captured three previously Republican congressional districts in Virginia, giving Democrats six or the eleven-member delegation.

The results of the gubernatorial election show that at least some of these Democrats are imperiled.

Finally...

The 2009 election results are certainly not going to make it easy for Speaker Nancy Pelosi to round up the needed 218 votes for Democrats’ health care bills.

COMMENT:  Republicans can win, and win big.  It is no time to mope about 2008.  Get ready for 2010.  Good messages and good candidates prevail.

October 4, 2009   Permalink

AND NOW THE BRILLIANT ANALYSIS - AT 8:12 A.M. ET:  The 2009 mini-election is over.  The profound analyses are about to begin.  My suggestion is to ignore most of them and start thinking about 2010.  There's nothing as old as yesterday's election.

A few points about elections:  First, the only thing that counts is who wins.  There are no prizes for second place.  So, in New York City, there are substantial ahems this morning over the fact that challenger Bill Thompson lost to Mayor Mike Bloomberg by only five points, when a larger gap had been expected. 

That's nice.

Mike Bloomberg will take the oath.  Bill Thompson will not.

In New York's now-fabled 23rd Congressional District, insurgent conservatives can gloat that amateur politician, and personality-deprived Doug Hoffman, almost defeated the Democrat, Bill Owens.  But Bill Owens is going to Washington, Hoffman goes back to accountancy.  And it isn't even tax time.

Second point about elections:  There are lessons, but they may not apply next year.  We certainly learned that Barack Obama's coattails have been neatly removed by the great electoral tailor known as the American people.  He tried desperately to help Jon Corzine in New Jersey, and, indeed, we'd expected a long count on election night.  It was over in a few hours, ending in a GOP triumph.  (We'd also expected cries of "fraud" from Republicans.  But, when you win, you don't have to cry anything.)

Third point:  There are no permanent victories.  Nothing looked sweeter to Dems a year ago than the Commonwealth of Virginia.  Now the Dems are secretly thinking that the state is back in "Gone With the Wind" days.  They probably expect to see Vivien Leigh and Clark Gable on the streets of Richmond.

Conditions will change over the next year.  Today the voters are angry, they aren't listening much to the wit and wisdom of Barack Obama, and the mainstream media can't tell them how to vote.  They may have taken a swing toward the exotic in the 2008 presidential election.  But last night they elected an evangelical Christian as governor of Virginia, and, in the heart of blue country, a disturbingly overweight basic Republic as governor New Jersey.

As the great political scientist, V.O. Key, once observed, the voters aren't idiots.

October 4,  2009   Permalink