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SUBSCRIPTION DRIVE - FINAL WEEK!

DAY 15

We enter our subscription drive's final week, following a strong weekend. 

But we still have a way to go to reach our goal.  

URGENT AGENDA SERIOUSLY NEEDS SUBSCRIPTIONS AND DONATIONS TO CONTINUE OUR WORK AT A HIGH LEVEL.

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But publishing Urgent Agenda is costly, and we count on subscribers and donators to keep us going.  Without you, we're history.  Our first two years showed dramatic growth, but this last year has been tougher.  Clearly, the economy is a factor.   But we must have a stable financial base in order to continue.

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We hope to have you aboard.

I appeared on Silvio Canto Jr's Dallas talk show last night.  It's here.

SEPTEMBER 19,  2011

SHORT TAKES ON THE DRIFTING WRECKAGE – AT 10:43 P.M. ET:

RETURN MATCH – Linda McMahon, defeated by Democrat Richard Blumenthal in last year's Senate race in Connecticut, will announce her candidacy this week for the Senate seat being vacated by Joe Lieberman next year.  McMahon is a former CEO of WWE, the wrestling folks, an organization she ran with her husband Vince.  Her wrestling background proved more than controversial in her 2010 bid for the Senate, as professional wrestling is not seen as a pristine sport.  Figure skating it ain't.   But McMahon could finance her own campaign, which sold her to the party.  Her primary opponent this time will probably be former Republican Congressman Chris Shays.  We don't know who the Democratic candidate will be, but he (or she) will be heavily favored in Connecticut.

FORGET SATURDAY MAIL – President Obama has endorsed a Postal Service idea to end Saturday mail deliveries to help close the service's massive deficit.  The USPS lost 8.5 billion last year.  That's dollars, not letters.  The service is losing out to e-mail, a decline in advertising mail due to the recession, and competition from faster package carriers.  It is also burdened by an excess number of post offices, kept open at the insistence of members of Congress.  It is the only business forced by law to keep unprofitable stores open.  Right now the USPS does not get any tax dollars.  It's hard to see how it can function without subsidies.  There just isn't enough business, and even that is likely to decline.

THE PHONINESS OF IT ALL – Saudi Arabia is contributing $10-million for a new counterterrorism center at the UN in New York.  That's like a society of sex offenders building a new headquarters for the Girl Scouts.  I suspect, and I think with good reason, that this "gift" has little to do with counterterrorism, but much to do with getting the emphasis away from Islamic extremism.  Some 15 of the 19 hijackers of 9-11 were from Saudi Arabia, and Saudi Arabia is the leading exporter of very extreme interpretations of Islam.  But the powerful, and vastly wealthy, Saudi lobby in America continues to portray the Saudis as wonderful fellas.  See much reporting on that lobby?

BAN THEM, BAN THEM! – A new academic study says that about 1,000 pedestrians are injured by bike riders each year in New York State.  Bikes, of course, are one of the darlings of the greenies, who would like to see us all on two-wheelers to avoid those awful, sinful automobiles.  New York City for years has tried to encourage bike riding, creating bike lanes in congested Manhattan.  (I have dodged more than my share of bikes, especially those piloted by messengers.)  I wonder what the new statistic will do to the promotion of bike riding.  Will six-year-old Johnnie have to get a bike license?  Appear in court?  Of course, we could ban bikes, but then only the outlaws will have them.

September 19, 2011       Permalink

MR. CANDIDATE TACKLES THE ECONOMY – AT 8:26 P.M. ET:  Barack Obama, the perpetual candidate who is happiest running for something and unhappiest when actually doing the job, proved again today that candidacy is his game, his only game.

Al Smith, the late governor of New York and the Democratic candidate for president in 1928, was called "the happy warrior."  But, as a candidate, he was absolutely glum-faced when compared to battlin' Barack.  The president put forward his deficit-reduction plan today, and even his partisans declared it primarily a campaign document.  From Dan Balz at the Washington Post:

Rarely has this president been as blunt in his challenges to the other party as he was on Monday. Rarely has he been so willing to draw lines in the sand. Rarely has he waved the threat of a veto with such emphasis...

...With his own political standing weakened and his base in near-revolt, the president may have had no choice other than to reappraise both his economic and his political strategy. Attempting to stay above the fray and appealing for at least a temporary cessation in the partisan wars in Washington was no longer an option.

Gone is any illusion that he and Boehner can really make a deal along the lines discussed during the summer — a deal that would take a serious bite out of entitlements, particularly Medicare, and include some new taxes. Gone too is his willingness to offer anything that would make his base even more estranged that it already is. Instead, Obama is under pressure to produce a program that can produce jobs and to reassert his standing as the leader of Democrats...

...With more force than at any time in his presidency, Obama pressed his argument of mutual sacrifice, with a significant share of it aimed at the wealthiest Americans. His call for an end to the Bush tax cuts for the wealthiest Americans and a millionaires’ tax (in the name of billionaire Warren Buffett) on top was greeted by charges of class warfare from his Republican critics. “This is not class warfare,” he said. “It’s math.”

Finally...

Obama’s speech was obviously anything but a blueprint designed to produce bipartisan consensus. For now, those days are over. Instead, the president has decided he must win the battle for public opinion in the debate between his vision and that of the Republicans if he hopes to win a second term in office.

He believes the American people are with him on the broad outlines and values he espoused Monday. The campaign that began on Sept. 8 in the House chamber continued Monday in the Rose Garden, with a weakened president fighting to win that battle.

COMMENT:  Say what you will, these boys know their politics.  The president's proposals today, a combination of tax increases on the wealthy, corporations, and other unpopular entities, cuts in tax breaks for oil companies, and some deficit reduction, will play well in many constituencies out there, and will help solidify the Democratic base.  The president also defends Social Security and Medicare, two very popular programs. 

The Republicans naturally declared the plan dead on arrival.  But in so doing they appeared to be reinforcing their image as the party that exists primarily to protect certain economic classes.  This may be unfair, but politics isn't about nice rules for nice people.

The ball is in the Republican court.  They could begin by attacking crony capitalism, as Sarah Palin and an increasing number of conservatives have done, realizing that corruption in the free enterprise system grates on Americans, infuriates them, and weakens pro-capitalism arguments.  Then the GOP must come up with an economic plan that works, actually creates jobs, and has about it the sense of fairness.  It is not easy, but the future of this country will be heavily influenced by next year's election, and I fear the Republicans, never a swift party, might be left at the starting gate by an unpopular president whose greatest ability is counting votes.

September 19, 2011      Permalink

SNIPPET OF THE DAY – AT 6:09 P.M. ET:

When Hurricane Irene swept over the Northeast, it washed away pumpkin patches, leaving retailers scrambling to find pumpkins from other parts of the U.S. to stock for consumers. Wet, rainy weather continues to offer the threat of mold that could decimate crops that initially survived Irene. To add insult to injury, an early frost may have put the icing on the proverbial cake for the pumpkin crops in the Northeast. With 2011 already seeing corn shortages that were made worse by weather conditions during the year, another crop shortage is not a good thing.

Since we all know that global warming caused Hurricane Irene, as well as heat waves, blizzards, and a shortage of good comedy writers, we can now expect Al Gore to say that those who deny global warming are also anti-Halloween.  What horrible people!  When your child can't get a pumpkin, just sit down with her, or him, and relate how the bad people won't invest in Al Gore's companies.  But if they did, more pumpkins!  Isn't the world simple? 

WHAT A TURKEY – AT 10:45 A.M. ET:  Ah, for the good old days, when Turkey was a secular nation, a firm ally of the United States, and a reliable member of NATO.

Turkey even fought with us in Korea, and its fighters were among the best.

But in the last ten years Turkey has become increasingly Islamic, and nutty.  Turkey borders on Iraq, but Turkey refused to help our efforts there.  It has enjoyed a good, and productive, relationship with Israel.  That is in shreds.  And, while still a member of NATO, one wonders why.  At one time Turkey was a bulwark against the Soviet Union, which hasn't existed for two decades. 

Now Turkey is developing illusions of grandeur.  And these illusions can hurt America in the Mideast.  From the Jerusalem Post:

Turkish Foreign Minister Ahmet Davutoglu said that Ankara is seeking a partnership between Turkey and Egypt that will create a new axis of power in the Middle East at a time when US influence in the region is waning.

Isn't it great to read that American influence is waning.  Another contribution by Barack Obama.

“This will not be an axis against any other country — not Israel, not Iran, not any other country, but this will be an axis of democracy, real democracy,” Davutoglu said in an interview published in Monday's New York Times. “That will be an axis of democracy of the two biggest nations in our region, from the north to the south, from the Black Sea down to the Nile Valley in Sudan,” he added.

Just what the region needs – an increasingly Islamist Turkey allied with an unstable and unpredictable Egypt. 

Turkey's ambitions are driven by its prime minister, Recep Tayyip Erdogan, who sees himself as the head of a new Arab empire, a modern-day reflection of Turkey's Ottoman Empire. 

But, analysts say Erdogan’s regional ambitions can only come at the cost of Egypt’s standing as the Arab world’s leading power. Faced with a slumping economy and an uncertain political future, Cairo may be in a weak position to compete with Ankara, but it is likely to resist becoming the junior member of a partnership.

“This isn’t going to be an easy relationship to manage. These countries have been competitors in the game of regional influence, with Egypt wanting to play a lead role in the Arab world and Turkey trying to increase its influence,” Sinan Ulgen, director of Turkey’s Centre for Economic and Foreign Policy Studies (Edam) and a visiting scholar at the Carnegie Institution, told The Media Line.

COMMENT:  President Obama's weakness, and his appeasement-style "outreach" to the Muslim world, is creating a power vacuum in the Mideast, and those stepping forward to fill it are a pretty unsavory lot. 

And what is incredible is that Obama's standing in the region has declined, despite all he has done to win friends there.  Bottom line, what is appreciated in the Mideast is power, the "strong horse" as Osama bin Laden correctly said.  We are increasingly seen as a weak horse.  If our defense budget is slashed substantially, we'll be a weak puppy.  And the wild dogs might just take over.

September 19, 2011     Permalink

SOME GOOD NEWS ON CRIME – AT 9:29 A.M. ET:   The FBI has just released crime statistics for last year.  There's progress here:

According to the figures released today by the FBI, the estimated number of violent crimes in 2010 declined for the fourth consecutive year. Property crimes also decreased, marking this the eighth straight year that the collective estimates for these offenses declined.

The 2010 statistics show that the estimated volumes of violent and property crimes declined 6.0 percent and 2.7 percent, respectively, when compared with the 2009 estimates. The violent crime rate for the year was 403.6 offenses per 100,000 inhabitants (a 6.5 percent decrease from the 2009 rate), and the property crime rate was 2,941.9 offenses per 100,000 persons (a 3.3 percent decrease from the 2009 figure).

COMMENT:  There is something quite fascinating here.  The decline is coming at a time of substantial economic stress.  Now, how many times have you heard that "poverty causes crime"?  It's one of the chiseled-in-stone talking points of the political left.  In fact, the crime rate actually went down during the Great Depression.  I don't know why this is so, but it calls into question much of what is taught by trendy sociologists.

The fact is that, over the last 20 years, crime in New York City has declined dramatically, largely due to vast improvements in policing.  It may well be that the national decline in offenses reflects the fact that other areas are learning New York's lessons.  When the criminal has a high expectation that he will be caught, and successfully prosecuted, he might choose another endeavor, like work. 

Crime is best studied on a locality-by-locality basis.  Some places never seem to improve much, others improve dramatically.  Examine carefully the quality of local leadership and its attitude toward law enforcement.

September 19, 2011      Permalink 

MICHELE, WE HARDLY KNEW YE – AT 9:06 A.M. ET:  Is Michele Bachmann toast?   Frankly, that is the growing opinion of political observers, who have watched her campaign tank since Rick Perry entered the race.  They both appeal to the same constituencies, and it was expected that Bachmann would take some backers from Perry.

But the problem is deeper.  When she entered the race, Bachmann carried some real baggage.  Known as intelligent and well prepared, she also was known as a shoot-from-the-hip speaker who often "misspoke," got facts wrong, and often had to backtrack – not the traits you want in a president.

Last week, in attacking Rick Perry, Bachmann may well have gone too far, and there's been a backlash.  As governor, Perry once tried to order girls in Texas to be vaccinated with Gardasil, a drug that could prevent cervical cancer.  Perry now concedes that he should have proceeded more carefully, and in consultation with the legislature, but even critics concede his heart was in the right place.

Look, required vaccinations are a fact of life all over America, and in our armed forces.  In most school districts, you can't go to school without first getting "your shots."  It's a public health issue.  But Bachmann, in a way over-the-top attack, suggested that Perry was some kind of monster, preying on "innocent" little girls.  It did not go down well.  Later, she passed on a story from a mother who claimed Gardasil caused mental problems in her daughter.  There is absolutely no evidence to back that up, but Bachmann hasn't apologized. 

One piece of advice I'd give to politicians:  Don't give medical advice. 

Columnist Michael A. Walsh, in the New York Post, puts it this way:

The way Bachmann chose to go after Perry -- berating him for “government injections” of “innocent little 12-year-old girls” -- made it sound like the Texan was ordering up fiendish medical experiments instead of responding to legitimate public-health concerns.

Further, there is nothing wrong with states ordering vaccinations -- they do it all the time with infectious diseases like polio, and save millions of lives.

It’s fine for Bachmann to raise the issue of possible “crony capitalism” -- Perry’s former chief of staff was a lobbyist working for the vaccine’s manufacturer, Merck. But she went way over the line when, after the debate, she repeated the evil lie that vaccines can cause autism.

Bachmann, wrote former Bush speechwriter Michael Gerson, “seems prone to a serious condition: the compulsive desire to confirm every evangelical stereotype of censorious ignorance.”

COMMENT:   Sadly, I have to agree.  When Michele Bachmann entered the race we bent over backwards at Urgent Agenda to be fair to her.  This angered some readers, and one, a prominent individual and subscriber, canceled his subscription.  But our view here is that we come to conclusions after we see the evidence, not before.  Our growing feeling is that Michele Bachmann, in many respects a wonderful woman, bright and passionate, needs further work as a candidate.  This is not her year.  We hope she will grow, and become a force for responsible conservatism in the future.

September 19, 2011       Permalink

ANOTHER RUMBLE, ANOTHER SHOW – AT 8:33 A.M. ET:  There will be another Republican debate this week, Thursday night to be exact.  It will be on Fox, and will mark the third outing for Rick Perry.

Perry was less than overwhelming in his last debate, often failing to present a coherent picture of his views, and appearing to lose steam as the debate progressed.  But he is known as a fast learner in campaigns, and we will be looking to see an improved performance.

Perry continues to lead in GOP polls, but we sense, in stories across the internet, that he's now beginning to get greater scrutiny, both positive and negative.  On the positive side, Perry comes off as genuine, strong-willed, and, yes, often compassionate.  On the negative side, both pundits and Republican insiders wonder about his electability.  He is, on paper, easy to run against – with a series of controversial statements about Social Security and Medicare, and a tendency to wear religion on his sleeve.  For many independents that may, unfairly or not, mark him as "strictly Texas."  From The Politico:

Last weekend, at a meeting of Pennsylvania Republicans in Harrisburg, there were unmistakable concerns that Perry atop the ticket could make life harder for candidates running down-ballot in the southeast region of the state, which encompasses Philadelphia and its vote-rich suburbs.

Most agreed that Romney would be an easier sell to the fiscally conservative, socially liberal voters who play an outsize role in deciding both statewide and swing district congressional races.

“I don’t think Rick Perry is going over real well in the southeast,” said suburban state Sen. John Rafferty, who’s running for state attorney general. “Romney would do better.”

Michael Meehan, the Philadelphia GOP leader and influential state party southeast caucus chairman, deadpanned of a Perry-leading ticket: “It wouldn’t be the first time that it’s every candidate for himself.”

Other Republicans from traditionally competitive states echo these concerns — but are hesitant to say so on the record out of fear of offending the potential nominee.

“I think Perry is just too hot,” said a longtime Ohio strategist, suggesting that Obama couldn’t scare swing voters about Romney the way he could with the Texan.

And yet, on the other hand, some Republicans say this is a "big theme" election, and that Republicans must nominate a man who paints with broad strokes, as Ronald Reagan did in 1980.  They point out that the Republican establishment was afraid of Reagan as well.

The problem, of course, is that Perry isn't Reagan.  Whether he can grow during the primaries is an open question.

As for Romney, he is on the attack, and he comes off well.  One thing about Romney, he is well prepared.  This will be a fascinating debate, with Romney hoping to level the field and Perry hoping to hang onto his lead.  Neither man, at this stage, has a lock on anything.

September 19, 2011     Permalink

SEPTEMBER 18,  2011

SHORT TAKES ON THE DRIFTING WRECKAGE – AT 9:51 P.M. ET:

IT'S GREEK TO US – Greece is on the financial edge.  A default by the major nation would create an even greater economic crisis in Europe.  The Greeks are pressured by other nations to reduce their spending.  But, internally, the Greek people, brought up in a welfare society, are demanding a continuation of the welfare state.  The president of Greece, George A. Papandreou, has cancelled a trip to Washington to deal with the crisis.  Europe's problems, which extend well beyond Greece, could affect us here, dramatically so, if European nations start to default. 

ANOTHER WONDERFUL ALLY – Fox News, in a new report, presents evidence that Pakistan spread nuclear technology around the world for years, in exchange for cash and help with its own program.  The recipients of the technical aid were China, Iran, North Korea, and Libya.  We have taken our eye off the ball here.  Iran isn't even on the front pages any longer, and neither is North Korea.  But both continue with the nuclear weapons program.  North Korea already has the bomb, and Iran is moving toward it.  When they have a nuclear weapon, the face of the Mideast could be changed.  Of course, President Obama will reach out to them.

ANYONE NOTICING? – Some 26 people were killed by government forces in Yemen today, and more Syrians were killed on Friday.  Does anyone care?  The so-called Arab spring, now stretching into fall, continues, and we have a responsibility to be apprehensive over what is happening.  There is no country going through upheaval in which we can be sure that the rebels are any better than the corrupt dictators they want to replace.  President Obama does not seem terribly engaged.  What else is new?

MITCH MIFFED – Governor Mitch Daniels of Indiana, himself a hot property in the GOP presidential sweepstakes until he pulled himself out of the running, now says he's dissatisfied with the Republican field, and that there's still time for others to get into the race.  It's impossible to know if he was hinting that he might reconsider, but at this point I wonder if anyone cares.  You can play coy only so long before people get disgusted at the maneuvering.  Ditto for Sarah Palin and Rudy Giuliani.  I, too, think there's room for someone else, but have no idea who it could be...unless it's Marco Rubio.  Whoever comes in at this stage has to swing a mighty bat. 

September 18, 2011       Permalink

WHEN LOONIES MEET – AT 11:26 A.M. ET:  Ah yes, what really is wrong with Obama is that he's not liberal enough.  If only he was more liberal, he'd surely be way out front in all the polls.

And there are people who really believe that.   The Washington Post has their exciting, inspiring story:

Liberal activists and academics displeased with the Obama administration’s handling of several issues popular with progressives say they are seeking candidates willing to mount a primary challenge against President Obama next year.

The group, led by consumer advocate Ralph Nader and scholar Cornel West, said it faults Obama for the escalation of military campaigns in Afghanistan and Pakistan, for extending tax cuts first enacted by George W. Bush and for his actions during the recent debt ceiling negotiations.

The group said Saturday it is seeking six “recognizable, articulate” candidates who would not mount serious challenges to Obama, but “rigorously debate his policy stands” on issues related to labor, poverty, foreign policy, civil rights and consumer protections.

The group’s efforts come as Democrats are growing increasingly pessimistic about the country’s direction. Fewer than three-quarters of Democrats approve of Obama’s job performance, and less than a third believe the nation is headed in the right direction, according to the most recent Washington Post-ABC News poll.

But Obama is building a formidable reelection campaign that is easily exceeding quarterly fundraising goals and is on course to raise more than $1 billion. Campaign aides last week defended the president’s slipping approval numbers by noting that more than a year before the election, he is attracting thousands of volunteers and small-dollar donors.

Nader said Saturday it is “very unlikely” he would challenge Obama, and that he is gauging the interest of former lawmakers and governors, academics, authors and labor leaders.

COMMENT:  How stimulating.  Actually, President Obama may be wishing for the kind of debate that Nader and West are trying to encourage.  Then he could come out looking like a moderate again, which is the bill he sold us in 2008. 

The Nader/West crowd calls itself "progressive," when in fact it's actually regressive.  It dreams of a return to the 1960s, and they'd probably look great in tie-dyed jeans.   The rest of us would, politely, like to get beyond their out-of-date fantasies.

September 18, 2011      Permalink

HEAVY HITTERS SNUB CALIFORNIA GOP MEET – AT 10:54 A.M. ET:  One of the greatest weaknesses in the Republican Party is that its state organizations, if they exist at all, are often seen as bad jokes.  In New York the party is basically a skeleton, a paper power, which waits for some major Republican figure to put some meat on the bones.  In California, the most populous state, the party is...well, get this, from The Politico:

LOS ANGELES - The front-runners in the GOP presidential race were nowhere to be found as California Republicans met in Los Angeles over the weekend, giving underdog candidates a chance to press their argument that the nation will recover from its economic malaise only by shrinking government to the bounds of the Constitution.

The crowd at the state party convention - as usual dominated by the more conservative elements in the GOP - warmly received U.S. Reps. Michele Bachmann of Minnesota and Ron Paul of Texas.

When the frontrunners won't even show up at a state convention in the most populous state, a message is being sent.  This isn't the California GOP of Ronald Reagan.  Ron Paul won its straw poll. 

California is now a reliably Democratic state.  That won't change until the party broadens its base, and understands that, as one of my professors taught, a major purpose of a party is to "organize the electorate."  Making ideological points is fine for movements and social clubs. 

To add insult to injury, Mitt Romney was campaigning in California while the convention was on.  Talk about a snub.  Rich Perry was in Iowa. 

California, once the golden state, is a mess in so many ways.  An eccentric Republican Party, which should be winning elections from the incompetent Democrats, isn't making things any better.

September 18, 2011       Permalink

THE TRUTH ABOUT TAXES – AT 10:39 A.M. ET:  Taxes are a hot issue on both sides of the political aisle, and no subject generates more mythology than the issue of who gets what in the tax system.  President Obama is trying to convince Americans that corporations are stealing the country blind.  But, incredibly, the liberal Washington Post runs a piece today that, in effect, says, "No so fast, Barack."

As President Obama and congressional Republicans argue over how to rewrite the U.S. tax code, the debate has revolved around “loopholes” for corporate jets and ending “carve-outs” for well-heeled special interests. But if the goal is debt reduction, that’s not where the money is.

Broad tax breaks granted to millions of families at all income levels dwarf the corporate giveaways. Over the past two years, largely because of these popular benefits in the federal income tax code, the government has reached a rare milestone in tax collection — it has given away as much as it takes in.

The number of tax breaks has nearly doubled since the last major tax overhaul 25 years ago, with lawmakers adding new benefits for children, college tuition, retirement savings and investment. At the same time, some long-standing breaks have exploded in value, such as the deduction for mortgage interest and the tax-free treatment of health-insurance premiums paid by employers.

All told, federal taxpayers last year received $1.08 trillion in credits, deductions and other perks while paying $1.09 trillion in income taxes, according to government estimates.

Only about 8 percent of those benefits went to corporations. (The write-off for corporate jets equals about .03 percent of the total.) The bulk went to private households, primarily upper middle-class families that Obama has vowed to protect from new taxes.

COMMENT:  That doesn't mean there can't be improvements, but I wish Obama would stop scapegoating corporations.  There are good corporations and corporations that don't measure up.  There are tax benefits for corporations that make sense, and some that don't.  The issues of fairness in the tax system, and the level of taxation, require serious discussion and a rational examination of the nation's needs.  The demagogues, including the president, are not helpful. 

September 18, 2011     Permalink