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DAY FIVE.

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SEPTEMBER 10,  2011

SHORT TAKES ON THE DRIFTING WRECKAGE – AT 9:18 P.M. ET:

IS IT REAL? – Some U.S. intelligence officials have started to push back against the stories, which we've cited, about a possible terror attack timed for the 9-11 ten-year commemoration.   While remaining anonymous, they say that the plot may actually not exist, and that there's no real evidence to support the warnings.  Of course, these officials may well be right.  That's happened before.  But still, we've also been told that the source of the report has a record of accuracy, and has, reportedly, never been wrong.  Some have suggested that the source himself may have been fed inaccurate information by those who knew he was passing on intelligence to Washington.  We'll see.  Meanwhile, New York and Washington remain on high alert, which is the wise thing to do.

TROUBLING – Some 14,000 rounds of ammunition are missing from Fort Bragg, North Carolina, the Army says.  Fort Bragg is known as the Army's paratrooper center.  No one is under suspicion.  Obvious, any missing ammo is cause for concern, especially as we worry about weapons falling into the wrong hands.  A lockdown of the relevant unit at Bragg failed to turn up any cartridges or information. 

GRAY HAIR FOR DEMS – Democrats are expressing increasing concern over President Obama's chances for reelection.  They see a weak economy growing even weaker.  And they feel the Republican field may be much stronger than they'd previously believed.  Both Rick Perry and Mitt Romney have executive experience and are centering their campaigns on job creation.  It is clear that the 2008 passion for Obama has evaporated, and that the most the president can hope for is an election victory based largely on scaring the public about the GOP.  Of course, such scare tactics often work in politics.

SILENCE WORKS – Political eyes are on New York's 9th Congressional District, where a special election will be held Tuesday to replace Congressman Anthony "Gypsy Rose" Weiner, whose online striporama forced him out of politics.  A Republican upset may actually happen, producing a political earthquake in New York.  But the national GOP, although supporting the Republican candidate, Bob Turner, with cash, is remaining otherwise silent.  Republicans openly acknowledge that their national brand doesn't play well in New York, or indeed, in most other places, and it is best not to remind voters that Turner is a Republican.  This is something the party had better work on.  Despite Obama's unpopularity, Republicans, as a group, often rank even lower in the polls.

September 10, 2011       Permalink

THREAT UPDATE – AT 11:54 A.M. ET:  We are continuing to follow the "credible" terror threat against the U.S., linked to tomorrow's 9-11 anniversary.  New information is being reported all the time.  From the New York Post:

The tip on the terror threat that had New Yorkers on high alert yesterday came from a reliable CIA informant in Pakistan who “has not been wrong before,” sources told The Post.

The informant told the agency that new al Qaeda boss Ayman al-Zawahiri personally recruited three terrorists -- at least two of whom are believed to be US citizens or have US traveling papers -- to launch car bomb attacks in the city or Washington, DC, to avenge the killing of terror lord Osama bin Laden.

US authorities suspect one American “is here” already, a counter-terrorism source told The Post.

Officials also believe the plot calls for the bombers not to commit suicide -- as the 9/11 hijackers did -- but to flee after setting the explosives as those who pulled off the 1998 attacks on two US embassies in Africa did, the source said.

The informant told US intelligence the trio may attempt an attack similar to Faizal Shahzad’s failed Times Square car bombing last year, according to an FBI bulletin.

“This person has not been wrong before,” an official said. “That source has been reliable in the past.”

The trio “may have met up with a small cell or other suspects” in the United States, a source told the iPad news mag The Daily.

COMMENT:  I was struck by one assessment that concluded that the team was instructed that, if they could not pull off the kind of attack that was planned, they were to create as much mayhem as possible.  That could mean simply planting a suitcase somewhere, or even firing at random from a concealed position, from which escape is possible.

I'm also concerned that a terror team, if blocked in New York and Washington by high security, might simply travel to another location.  Los Angeles and Chicago are said to be on increased alert as well.

September 10, 2011       Permalink

THE CONTINUING NIGHTMARE – AT 11:30 A.M. ET:  As security forces hunt for a possible terror team in the U.S. to stage its own commemoration of 9-11, we're reminded that terrorists might soon get their hands on far more deadly weapons than they've had up to now.  The Christian Science Monitor has an excellent report from Libya:

As Libya’s National Transitional Council (NTC) hunt for and collect the weapons that fueled Muammar Qaddafi's war machine, they are quickly learning that some choice pieces of his vast stockpile of mines, mortars, and explosives are missing.

At newly discovered weapons-storage sites, thousands of shoulder-held surface-to-air missiles (SAMs) are unaccounted for. At one unguarded facility, empty packing crates and documents reveal that 482 sophisticated Russian SA-24 missiles were shipped to Libya in 2004, and now are gone. With a range of 11,000 feet, the SA-24 is Moscow’s modern version of the American “stinger,” which in the 1980s helped the US-backed Afghan mujahideen turn their war against the Soviet Union.

This is the first I've read that modern shoulder-fired SAM's (surface-to-air missiles) are missing.  We'd been told before that the missing SAM's were older, 1970s vintage Soviet models.  The newer ones are far more deadly and reliable.  Teh great fear is that a terrorist can jump out of a car near an international airport and bring down an airliner landing or taking off.  And, with a missile range of 11,000 feet, he wouldn't even have to be close to the airport any longer. 

The usual suspects in journalism are urging that we "move on" from the war on terror, concentrating on our domestic needs.  (They always want to "move on."  They've even named a movement "moveon.org.") 

There is no moving on.  We're in it, and it will take a long time.

September 10, 2011      Permalink

MIDEAST TRAUMA – AT 10:51 A.M. ET:  Nothing is more important to American diplomacy in the Mideast than the Israel-Egypt peace treaty.  Although it's a cold peace, it has prevented a Mideast conflagration for three decades.  That treaty is now under the worst threat in its history.

The Arab spring in Egypt is turning into an Arab winter, with some of the worst elements coming to the fore.  This would never have been possible under Hosni Mubarak who, although he was an authoritarian, undemocratic leader, was at least sane in his foreign policy, and was considered pro-American.  However, he got pushed out quickly by President Obama, who has a way with our allies.

The New York Times has the story of the latest blow to peace, the storming of the Israeli embassy in Cairo and the evacuation of the Israeli ambassador.  This is going downhill very fast:

CAIRO — Israel flew most of its diplomatic staff out of Egypt on Saturday after thousands of protesters the day before tore down a protective wall around the Israeli Embassy and broke into its offices the day before.

Prime Minister Essam Sharaf of Egypt called an emergency cabinet meeting to deal with the aftermath of the attack and the Egyptian government put its police on alert to guard against more violence.

The Egyptian Interior Ministry said Saturday that at least two people had died in the clashes, one from a bullet wound and the other from a heart attack, while as many as 1,200 had been injured in overnight clashes with the police, mostly around the Israeli Embassy. Protesters scaled the walls of the embassy to tear down its flag, broke into offices and tossed binders of documents into the streets.

The rioting began after large groups of protesters split off from what had been a peaceful protest in Tahrir Square. Thousands attacked the Israeli embassy while others converged on the Interior Ministry, defacing its headquarters. Dozens were also injured in clashes with the police there.

Israeli officials signaled Saturday that they considered the breach of their embassy’s security a significant blow to relations between the two allies. Israeli officials placed several calls to their American counterparts, including from Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to President Obama, and from Defense Minister Ehud Barak to Defense Secretary Leon Panetta, to try to apply pressure on Egypt to resolve the crisis, Israeli and American officials said.

On Saturday morning, Israel had evacuated its Cairo ambassador and embassy, sending two air force jets to bring home 86 diplomats and family members at dawn.

COMMENT:  The fact that Israel Air Force jets can still land in Cairo is a sign that at least there's some civilized control left.  The Egyptian military is widely seen as a force for rationality, but it will be replaced after "elections" are held later. 

Egypt is the most important Arab country, and the one that traditionally wields the most influence.  Cairo is where President Obama delivered his now famous (infamous, actually) outreach speech to the Muslim world.  We're getting nothing in return for that outreach, for Obama is seen as a weak president.  And, as the late Osama bin Laden observed, it's the strong horse who wins in his part of the world. 

The evacuation of the Israeli embassy in Cairo is, symbolically, a very bad moment. 

September 10, 2011        Permalink

WHERE OBAMA STANDS – AT 10:35 A.M. – It is stunning.  The president continues to sink in the polls.  There are many surveys, some good, some less so, but we depend mostly on Rasmussen because he polls likely voters, which is the most useful and accurate measurement.

Also, Scott Rasmussen publishes what he calls the Presidential Approval Index, measuring passion.  It reports the gap between those who strongly approve of a president's performance and those who strongly disapprove.  Since August 30th, Mr. Obama has had an approval index of worse than -20 every day, and that is no ornament to his presidency.  Today's report:

The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Saturday shows that 20% of the nation's voters Strongly Approve of the way that Barack Obama is performing his role as president. Forty-three percent (43%) Strongly Disapprove, giving Obama a Presidential Approval Index rating of -23.

It is incredible that 43% of respondents strongly disapprove of this president. 

Overall, 42% of voters say they at least somewhat approve of the president's performance. Fifty-five percent (55%) at least somewhat disapprove.

Rasmussen is now moving closer to the Gallup Poll's rating of the president, which has been in the low 40s, and has dipped several times into the high 30s.

Again we stress that a poll is a snapshot in time.  We also stress that weak numbers do not guarantee the president's defeat next year.  Political resurrections occur all the time, especially as the Republican Party has found the most creative ways to lose elections.  So let us work.

September 10, 2011     Permalink

SEPTEMBER 9,  2011

SHORT TAKES ON THE DRIFTING WRECKAGE – AT 10:02 P.M. ET:

THIS MIGHT BE SERIOUS –  There is a sense, gleaned from administration and law-enforcement sources, that the terror threat surrounding the 9-11 observance might be quite serious.  Today Secretary of Defense Leon Panetta warned enemies not to "mess with" the United States, the kind of warning typical of George W. Bush, but not typical of the current administration.  The mayor of New York has also urged New Yorkers to be especially alert.  We are following this closely.

AN ANGRY PRESIDENT – I thought it was just me last night, but now pundits are buzzing about how angry the president seemed during his speech.  I'd also add that when the camera turned to Michelle Obama, she looked absolutely furious.  These are two angry people, and that is not healthy in the national leadership of the United States.  We've had fury in office before.  Jimmy Carter became the national scold, and flopped badly.   Hillary Clinton, as first lady, was known as hell on wheels.  Americans admire optimism in their leaders, as this is an optimistic country.  Another performance like last night, and the Obamas might find the welcome mat withdrawn.

WEATHER BULLETIN FROM THE LAND OF POLITICAL CORRECTNESS – Sweden is one of those countries that is obsessed with political correctness and trendiness, while at the same time a good part of the country seems a mess.  Sweden, of course, accepts the "science" of global warming.  Now, though, forecasters are predicting another bitter, freezing winter, following two other bitter, freezing winters.  And we now learn that weather patterns in Sweden seem to change, on average, every 3.5 years.  It was very bitter during World War II, then mild afterward.  But wait.  If those temperatures are changing in a regular pattern, what does that say about the "human" contribution to global warming?  Never mind.  I'm sorry I asked.  I didn't mean to be offensive.

DANGER IN CAIRO – In another sign that the "Arab spring" is going south, a mob in Cairo broke into the Israeli embassy, ransacked part of it, burned documents, and, according to some reports, roughed up some of the staff.  Egyptian police stood by and did nothing.  Embassies are considered inviolate, and mob rule is not a good thing.  There have been a number of disturbing signs coming out of Egypt, and indeed some bad signs from Libya.  It is far from clear that the people replacing the overthrown dictators of Mideast countries will be any better.  We should get a good idea in the next year, in time for us to judge Obama's policies in the region at the next election.

September 9, 2011       Permalink

POLITICAL STUNNER – AT 10:30 A.M. ET:   As readers know, we've been following the contest in New York's 9th Congressional District, formerly represented by Anthony Weiner before his internet striptease. 

There'll be a special election in this "safe" Democratic district on Tuesday, and, incredible, the Republican candidate has just pulled ahead, according to late polling.  From the National Journal:

Republican Bob Turner holds a six-point lead in next week's special election to replace disgraced former Rep. Anthony Weiner, D-N.Y., according to a new Siena College poll released early Friday that shows voters in the overwhelmingly Democratic district are poised to deliver a stinging rebuke to President Obama and his party.

Turner leads Democratic Assemblyman David Weprin in the poll, 50 percent to 44 percent. Six percent of likely voters in the Sept. 13th election are undecided.

Discontent with Washington and the president is at the heart of Turner's shocking upset bid. In a district he won by 11 points just three years ago, Obama's favorability rating is now upside down in the Siena poll, with 54 percent having an unfavorable opinion of Obama and only 43 percent viewing him favorably. A remarkable 38 percent of Democrats and 68 percent of independents hold an unfavorable view of the president.

The Republican also has all the momentum: A Siena poll conducted four weeks ago showed Weprin with a six-point advantage. Turner's lead does fall barely within the margin of error, but the poll shows that the GOP is on the verge of a most unlikely victory in the Outer Boroughs-based district, where Democrats hold a three-to-one advantage on the voter rolls.

But the Democratic registration advantage is tempered by the poll's crosstabs. Turner runs much stronger among Republicans, holding 90 percent of the vote, than Weprin does among Democrats, taking just 63 percent. Independents are overwhelmingly lined up behind the Republican, with 65 percent of them supporting Turner and 27 percent choosing Weprin.

COMMENT:  If Turner wins Tuesday it will be a major political event, equivalent to Scott Brown's Senate victory in Massachusetts.  New Yorkers, though welded to the Democratic Party at birth, can sometimes show an independent streak, as they have by not electing a Democratic mayor since 1989.  But this is Anthony Weiner's district.  This was Chuck Schumer's district, before he went on to the Senate.  This district has no history of going rogue.  It may – let's be cautious about it – go rogue on Tuesday. 

How do we tell the president?  Or Chris Matthews?

September 9, 2011       Permalink

SNIPPET OF THE DAY – AT 9:54 A.M. ET:

From The Wall Street Journal:   The fashion industry has its knickers in a twist over "manties."  A contraction of "man" and "panties," the wordplay is meant to describe certain undergarments for males.  It's part of a special lexicon that has emerged, over the past decade, as a sort of shorthand for men's fashion. Men can also wear "mandals" (male sandals), "murses" (purses), "mantyhose" (pantyhose) and "mankinis" (swimsuit variants)—though not necessarily all at the same time.  At first, the neologisms were a kind of secret language among the fashion industry, etymologists say. Yet they're going mainstream. Now, editors of the prestigious Oxford English Dictionary are tracking them for possible inclusion.

Let me assure readers that I have no intention of wearing manties or mantyhose.  And the day I consider it should be the day you stop reading this blog.  As for the Oxford English Dictionary, it seems determined to be part of British decline.  Give me Webster's or give me death.

THIS, FROM THE NEW YORK TIMES? – AT 9:22 A.M. ET:  This is a historic day in American journalism, so mark your calendar for next year's commemoration.  On this day The New York Times said something favorable about Sarah Palin. 

In fact, the column is excellent, pointing out that Sarah just made an excellent, idea-filled speech that was promptly ignored by the media.  Consider:

CAMBRIDGE, MASSACHUSETTS — Let us begin by confessing that, if Sarah Palin surfaced to say something intelligent and wise and fresh about the present American condition, many of us would fail to hear it...

...But something curious happened when Ms. Palin strode onto the stage last weekend at a Tea Party event in Indianola, Iowa. Along with her familiar and predictable swipes at President Barack Obama and the “far left,” she delivered a devastating indictment of the entire U.S. political establishment — left, right and center — and pointed toward a way of transcending the presently unbridgeable political divide...

...She made three interlocking points. First, that the United States is now governed by a “permanent political class,” drawn from both parties, that is increasingly cut off from the concerns of regular people. Second, that these Republicans and Democrats have allied with big business to mutual advantage to create what she called “corporate crony capitalism.” Third, that the real political divide in the United States may no longer be between friends and foes of Big Government, but between friends and foes of vast, remote, unaccountable institutions (both public and private).

Yes, Sarah did make those points, and made them well, and this Times article is well worth reading.  (I wonder if the writer will ever get promoted.)  In fact, one could argue that Sarah's speech was the most intelligent of the campaign season thus far.

Many have turned on Sarah Palin, and sometimes for good reason.  She seemed to throw away her seriousness when she resigned as governor of Alaska, a poor decision that did her substantial damage.  Then she became more of a celebrity than a serious political actor.  Has she decided to try for a comeback?  I don't know.  I do know that the usual suspects will wonder whether she wrote her speech herself.  I'm guessing that she did.  She's actually, when she wants to be, a very bright woman who had a fine reputation as governor.  She might be wise to skip this year's presidential campaign and work on restoring her image.  She's young.  She has plenty of time. 

The column concludes:

Ms. Palin may be hinting at a new political alignment that would pit a vigorous localism against a kind of national-global institutionalism.

On one side would be those Americans who believe in the power of vast, well-developed institutions like Goldman Sachs, the Teamsters Union, General Electric, Google and the U.S. Department of Education to make the world better. On the other side would be people who believe that power, whether public or private, becomes corrupt and unresponsive the more remote and more anonymous it becomes; they would press to live in self-contained, self-governing enclaves that bear the burden of their own prosperity.

No one knows yet whether Ms. Palin will actually run for president. But she did just get more interesting.

COMMENT:  A fair-minded comment on Sarah Palin.  She says she's still deciding whether to enter the race.  The smart money says she won't.   The smart money might also read her speech.  There is a future for her, if she can discipline herself to play it right.

September 9, 2011       Permalink 

MORE ON THE REPORTED TERROR PLOT – AT 8:59 A.M. ET:  Brian Ross, at ABC, is developing the story of the reported terror plot linked to the 9-11 anniversary.  From ABC News:

U.S. authorities are scrambling to sort through information that the CIA developed in the past 24 hours indicating that at least three individuals entered the U.S. in August by air with the intent to launch a vehicle-borne attack against Washington, D.C. or New York around the anniversary of 9/11, according to intelligence officials.

Officials say the alleged terror plot was initiated by new al Qaeda chief Ayman al-Zawahiri, Osama bin Laden's successor, who had pledged to avenge bin Laden's death earlier this year in a U.S. raid.

Intelligence and law enforcement officials told ABC News that at least one of the individuals is a U.S. citizen and one official said that two of the individuals may have had U.S. documentation -- whether green cards or passports was unclear.

The threat was described as specific and credible by federal officials. "Al Qaeda has shown an interest in important dates and anniversaries. In this instance it is accurate that there is credible, specific but unconfirmed information," said Janice Fedarcyk, FBI Assistant Special Agent in Charge of the New York office, at a Thursday evening press conference.

And...

Although authorities said they had not yet identified the suspects, they are looking at multiple names of individuals who entered the U.S. after mid-August. The operatives are believed to have embarked on their journey to the U.S. from the tribal areas of Pakistan, according to two senior officials. One official said the route may have taken them through Dubai.

The information on the plot was "very specific " said one official, adding " It seems like the information has been worked for a while." A second and third official confirmed the specifics of the possible plot added that a declassified bulletin is expected to be issued shortly.

COMMENT:  We've noticed in the last few days that some "sophisticates" in the press have been downplaying terror warnings, pointing out that there have been no large-scale attacks on the U.S. since 9-11.  They are so wrong.  Some attacks have been foiled.  No doubt others have been discouraged.  Our regular attacks on Al Qaeda have disrupted the organization.  But an individual or small group can still get through. 

I'd take the warnings seriously, then hope the authorities remain on the case and that the potential terrorists back down.  But I'd point out to the "sophisticates" of the press that no newspaper column ever stopped a terrorist attack.

September 9, 2011       Permalink

QUOTE OF THE DAY – AT 8:35 A.M. ET:  From Andrew Malcolm at the L.A. Times's Top of the Ticket blog:

Speaking on behalf of millions of Americans who've grown angry and frustrated over the president's 32-month ineffective inactivity on the job creation front, President Obama on Thursday told members of Congress they really have to do something about the crummy employment situation -- and do it quickly.

Citing the plight of millions of struggling Americans whose wishes for jobs Obama ignored for most of the 961 days he's been in office while chasing shinier healthcare and financial reforms, Obama said it was time that Congress stop blaming others. He said it was time members take responsibility for their inaction and halt their phony partisan games and political circus acts that pervade Washington culture.

Because the Americans Obama hasn't been listening to are really hurting now. And -- who's....

....counting, but it's only 424 days until Nov. 6, 2012. No plan yet to pay for Obama's ideas. But he wants immediate passage of his American Jobs Act anyway.

COMMENT;  Yeah, that pretty much says it.  Last night's speech, with its put-on urgency, came a little late, or a lot late, for most Americans.  Reaction this morning remains mixed.  Some people feel there are elements of the plan that have merit.  No one sees it as a magic bullet. 

AT the same time, the Dems can argue that at least the president put something on the table.  Republicans must now come up with, and publicize, their own ideas.  Romney did that earlier this week, but no challenger has the bully pulpit that the president has.

Mr. Obama will use that pulpit, and the inherent power of the presidency, to help win reelection.  I wouldn't be shocked if he does a Truman, and runs a whistlestop campaign across the country.  Do not count this man out.

September 9, 2011     Permalink