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SUBSCRIPTION DRIVE - SLUGGISH

DAY FOUR.

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SEPTEMBER 9,  2011

SHORT TAKES ON THE DRIFTING WRECKAGE – AT 10:02 P.M. ET:

THIS MIGHT BE SERIOUS –  There is a sense, gleaned from administration and law-enforcement sources, that the terror threat surrounding the 9-11 observance might be quite serious.  Today Secretary of Defense Leon Panetta warned enemies not to "mess with" the United States, the kind of warning typical of George W. Bush, but not typical of the current administration.  The mayor of New York has also urged New Yorkers to be especially alert.  We are following this closely.

AN ANGRY PRESIDENT – I thought it was just me last night, but now pundits are buzzing about how angry the president seemed during his speech.  I'd also add that when the camera turned to Michelle Obama, she looked absolutely furious.  These are two angry people, and that is not healthy in the national leadership of the United States.  We've had fury in office before.  Jimmy Carter became the national scold, and flopped badly.   Hillary Clinton, as first lady, was known as hell on wheels.  Americans admire optimism in their leaders, as this is an optimistic country.  Another performance like last night, and the Obamas might find the welcome mat withdrawn.

WEATHER BULLETIN FROM THE LAND OF POLITICAL CORRECTNESS – Sweden is one of those countries that is obsessed with political correctness and trendiness, while at the same time a good part of the country seems a mess.  Sweden, of course, accepts the "science" of global warming.  Now, though, forecasters are predicting another bitter, freezing winter, following two other bitter, freezing winters.  And we now learn that weather patterns in Sweden seem to change, on average, every 3.5 years.  It was very bitter during World War II, then mild afterward.  But wait.  If those temperatures are changing in a regular pattern, what does that say about the "human" contribution to global warming?  Never mind.  I'm sorry I asked.  I didn't mean to be offensive.

DANGER IN CAIRO – In another sign that the "Arab spring" is going south, a mob in Cairo broke into the Israeli embassy, ransacked part of it, burned documents, and, according to some reports, roughed up some of the staff.  Egyptian police stood by and did nothing.  Embassies are considered inviolate, and mob rule is not a good thing.  There have been a number of disturbing signs coming out of Egypt, and indeed some bad signs from Libya.  It is far from clear that the people replacing the overthrown dictators of Mideast countries will be any better.  We should get a good idea in the next year, in time for us to judge Obama's policies in the region at the next election.

September 9, 2011       Permalink

POLITICAL STUNNER – AT 10:30 A.M. ET:   As readers know, we've been following the contest in New York's 9th Congressional District, formerly represented by Anthony Weiner before his internet striptease. 

There'll be a special election in this "safe" Democratic district on Tuesday, and, incredible, the Republican candidate has just pulled ahead, according to late polling.  From the National Journal:

Republican Bob Turner holds a six-point lead in next week's special election to replace disgraced former Rep. Anthony Weiner, D-N.Y., according to a new Siena College poll released early Friday that shows voters in the overwhelmingly Democratic district are poised to deliver a stinging rebuke to President Obama and his party.

Turner leads Democratic Assemblyman David Weprin in the poll, 50 percent to 44 percent. Six percent of likely voters in the Sept. 13th election are undecided.

Discontent with Washington and the president is at the heart of Turner's shocking upset bid. In a district he won by 11 points just three years ago, Obama's favorability rating is now upside down in the Siena poll, with 54 percent having an unfavorable opinion of Obama and only 43 percent viewing him favorably. A remarkable 38 percent of Democrats and 68 percent of independents hold an unfavorable view of the president.

The Republican also has all the momentum: A Siena poll conducted four weeks ago showed Weprin with a six-point advantage. Turner's lead does fall barely within the margin of error, but the poll shows that the GOP is on the verge of a most unlikely victory in the Outer Boroughs-based district, where Democrats hold a three-to-one advantage on the voter rolls.

But the Democratic registration advantage is tempered by the poll's crosstabs. Turner runs much stronger among Republicans, holding 90 percent of the vote, than Weprin does among Democrats, taking just 63 percent. Independents are overwhelmingly lined up behind the Republican, with 65 percent of them supporting Turner and 27 percent choosing Weprin.

COMMENT:  If Turner wins Tuesday it will be a major political event, equivalent to Scott Brown's Senate victory in Massachusetts.  New Yorkers, though welded to the Democratic Party at birth, can sometimes show an independent streak, as they have by not electing a Democratic mayor since 1989.  But this is Anthony Weiner's district.  This was Chuck Schumer's district, before he went on to the Senate.  This district has no history of going rogue.  It may – let's be cautious about it – go rogue on Tuesday. 

How do we tell the president?  Or Chris Matthews?

September 9, 2011       Permalink

SNIPPET OF THE DAY – AT 9:54 A.M. ET:

From The Wall Street Journal:   The fashion industry has its knickers in a twist over "manties."  A contraction of "man" and "panties," the wordplay is meant to describe certain undergarments for males.  It's part of a special lexicon that has emerged, over the past decade, as a sort of shorthand for men's fashion. Men can also wear "mandals" (male sandals), "murses" (purses), "mantyhose" (pantyhose) and "mankinis" (swimsuit variants)—though not necessarily all at the same time.  At first, the neologisms were a kind of secret language among the fashion industry, etymologists say. Yet they're going mainstream. Now, editors of the prestigious Oxford English Dictionary are tracking them for possible inclusion.

Let me assure readers that I have no intention of wearing manties or mantyhose.  And the day I consider it should be the day you stop reading this blog.  As for the Oxford English Dictionary, it seems determined to be part of British decline.  Give me Webster's or give me death.

THIS, FROM THE NEW YORK TIMES? – AT 9:22 A.M. ET:  This is a historic day in American journalism, so mark your calendar for next year's commemoration.  On this day The New York Times said something favorable about Sarah Palin. 

In fact, the column is excellent, pointing out that Sarah just made an excellent, idea-filled speech that was promptly ignored by the media.  Consider:

CAMBRIDGE, MASSACHUSETTS — Let us begin by confessing that, if Sarah Palin surfaced to say something intelligent and wise and fresh about the present American condition, many of us would fail to hear it...

...But something curious happened when Ms. Palin strode onto the stage last weekend at a Tea Party event in Indianola, Iowa. Along with her familiar and predictable swipes at President Barack Obama and the “far left,” she delivered a devastating indictment of the entire U.S. political establishment — left, right and center — and pointed toward a way of transcending the presently unbridgeable political divide...

...She made three interlocking points. First, that the United States is now governed by a “permanent political class,” drawn from both parties, that is increasingly cut off from the concerns of regular people. Second, that these Republicans and Democrats have allied with big business to mutual advantage to create what she called “corporate crony capitalism.” Third, that the real political divide in the United States may no longer be between friends and foes of Big Government, but between friends and foes of vast, remote, unaccountable institutions (both public and private).

Yes, Sarah did make those points, and made them well, and this Times article is well worth reading.  (I wonder if the writer will ever get promoted.)  In fact, one could argue that Sarah's speech was the most intelligent of the campaign season thus far.

Many have turned on Sarah Palin, and sometimes for good reason.  She seemed to throw away her seriousness when she resigned as governor of Alaska, a poor decision that did her substantial damage.  Then she became more of a celebrity than a serious political actor.  Has she decided to try for a comeback?  I don't know.  I do know that the usual suspects will wonder whether she wrote her speech herself.  I'm guessing that she did.  She's actually, when she wants to be, a very bright woman who had a fine reputation as governor.  She might be wise to skip this year's presidential campaign and work on restoring her image.  She's young.  She has plenty of time. 

The column concludes:

Ms. Palin may be hinting at a new political alignment that would pit a vigorous localism against a kind of national-global institutionalism.

On one side would be those Americans who believe in the power of vast, well-developed institutions like Goldman Sachs, the Teamsters Union, General Electric, Google and the U.S. Department of Education to make the world better. On the other side would be people who believe that power, whether public or private, becomes corrupt and unresponsive the more remote and more anonymous it becomes; they would press to live in self-contained, self-governing enclaves that bear the burden of their own prosperity.

No one knows yet whether Ms. Palin will actually run for president. But she did just get more interesting.

COMMENT:  A fair-minded comment on Sarah Palin.  She says she's still deciding whether to enter the race.  The smart money says she won't.   The smart money might also read her speech.  There is a future for her, if she can discipline herself to play it right.

September 9, 2011       Permalink 

MORE ON THE REPORTED TERROR PLOT – AT 8:59 A.M. ET:  Brian Ross, at ABC, is developing the story of the reported terror plot linked to the 9-11 anniversary.  From ABC News:

U.S. authorities are scrambling to sort through information that the CIA developed in the past 24 hours indicating that at least three individuals entered the U.S. in August by air with the intent to launch a vehicle-borne attack against Washington, D.C. or New York around the anniversary of 9/11, according to intelligence officials.

Officials say the alleged terror plot was initiated by new al Qaeda chief Ayman al-Zawahiri, Osama bin Laden's successor, who had pledged to avenge bin Laden's death earlier this year in a U.S. raid.

Intelligence and law enforcement officials told ABC News that at least one of the individuals is a U.S. citizen and one official said that two of the individuals may have had U.S. documentation -- whether green cards or passports was unclear.

The threat was described as specific and credible by federal officials. "Al Qaeda has shown an interest in important dates and anniversaries. In this instance it is accurate that there is credible, specific but unconfirmed information," said Janice Fedarcyk, FBI Assistant Special Agent in Charge of the New York office, at a Thursday evening press conference.

And...

Although authorities said they had not yet identified the suspects, they are looking at multiple names of individuals who entered the U.S. after mid-August. The operatives are believed to have embarked on their journey to the U.S. from the tribal areas of Pakistan, according to two senior officials. One official said the route may have taken them through Dubai.

The information on the plot was "very specific " said one official, adding " It seems like the information has been worked for a while." A second and third official confirmed the specifics of the possible plot added that a declassified bulletin is expected to be issued shortly.

COMMENT:  We've noticed in the last few days that some "sophisticates" in the press have been downplaying terror warnings, pointing out that there have been no large-scale attacks on the U.S. since 9-11.  They are so wrong.  Some attacks have been foiled.  No doubt others have been discouraged.  Our regular attacks on Al Qaeda have disrupted the organization.  But an individual or small group can still get through. 

I'd take the warnings seriously, then hope the authorities remain on the case and that the potential terrorists back down.  But I'd point out to the "sophisticates" of the press that no newspaper column ever stopped a terrorist attack.

September 9, 2011       Permalink

QUOTE OF THE DAY – AT 8:35 A.M. ET:  From Andrew Malcolm at the L.A. Times's Top of the Ticket blog:

Speaking on behalf of millions of Americans who've grown angry and frustrated over the president's 32-month ineffective inactivity on the job creation front, President Obama on Thursday told members of Congress they really have to do something about the crummy employment situation -- and do it quickly.

Citing the plight of millions of struggling Americans whose wishes for jobs Obama ignored for most of the 961 days he's been in office while chasing shinier healthcare and financial reforms, Obama said it was time that Congress stop blaming others. He said it was time members take responsibility for their inaction and halt their phony partisan games and political circus acts that pervade Washington culture.

Because the Americans Obama hasn't been listening to are really hurting now. And -- who's....

....counting, but it's only 424 days until Nov. 6, 2012. No plan yet to pay for Obama's ideas. But he wants immediate passage of his American Jobs Act anyway.

COMMENT;  Yeah, that pretty much says it.  Last night's speech, with its put-on urgency, came a little late, or a lot late, for most Americans.  Reaction this morning remains mixed.  Some people feel there are elements of the plan that have merit.  No one sees it as a magic bullet. 

AT the same time, the Dems can argue that at least the president put something on the table.  Republicans must now come up with, and publicize, their own ideas.  Romney did that earlier this week, but no challenger has the bully pulpit that the president has.

Mr. Obama will use that pulpit, and the inherent power of the presidency, to help win reelection.  I wouldn't be shocked if he does a Truman, and runs a whistlestop campaign across the country.  Do not count this man out.

September 9, 2011     Permalink

SEPTEMBER 8,  2011

SHORT TAKES ON THE DRIFTING WRECKAGE – AT 9:46 P.M. ET:

POSSIBLE 9-11 TERROR THREAT – Dept of Homeland Security says it has a report of a "specific, credible but unconfirmed" threat of a terror attack in the U.S., using car and truck bombs, timed to coincide with the 10th anniversary of 9-11.  Local authorities have been alerted.  The threat is said to focus on New York City and Washington, D.C.  We obviously will watch this story, if in fact it develops.

DEMS GO INTO PANIC MODE – And they can't blame it on global warming.  Democrats are showing real worry that they may lose the special election in New York Tuesday to fill the vacancy in the House created when Anthony Weiner resigned in disgrace.  The vote is being held in the 9th C.D., which is normally considered "safe" for Democrats.  Now, the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee will spend almost half a million dollars on a last-minute ad buy.  Late polls show the race as a tossup between Dem David Weprin and GOP candidate Bob Turner.  This is a "traditional" Democratic district, not one of the trendier ones where liberals weep for the workers while driving around in BMW 700s.  I still think the Democratic candidate has the edge, but Obama is unpopular in the 9th, and the GOP is trying for an upset. 

ROMNEY ATTACKING – I'm sure his team has done polling on this, and Mitt Romney was on the attack today, focusing on Rick Perry's description of Social Security as a Ponzi scheme.  Social Security is enormously popular, as virtually every pundit has pointed out.  Perry's hostility to the system, if not satisfactorily explained, can cost him big in a general election, and may cost him the race itself.  Perry did nothing last night to ease concerns.  Romney is exploiting this weakness, which is the intelligent thing to do.  Romney wants to turn Perry into a one-week wonder.

HALEY SWINGS THE AX – Governor Nikki Haley of South Carolina, a state that has great clout in the Republican primary sweeps, said today that she will not support Jon Huntsman for the GOP presidential nomination.  Singling out Huntsman for a negative endorsement is a serious blow to the former Utah governor, who has the largest operation in South Carolina of all the candidates, and has made the state critical to his chances.  I don't think Huntsman has much of a chance anyway.

September 8, 2011      Permalink

THE SPEECH – AT 8:54 P.M. ET:  The president delivered his jobs speech tonight.  It contained pretty much what had been expected.  From Bloomberg:

President Barack Obama called on Congress to pass a jobs plan that would inject $447 billion into the economy through infrastructure spending, subsidies to local governments to stem teacher layoffs and cutting in half the payroll taxes paid by workers and small-business owners.

The package is heavily geared toward tax cuts, which account for more than half the dollar value of the stimulus, and administration officials said they believe that will have the greatest appeal to Republican members of Congress.

“The question is whether, in the face of an ongoing national crisis, we can stop the political circus and actually do something to help the economy,” Obama told a joint session of Congress tonight.

A $105 billion infrastructure proposal includes money for school modernization, transportation projects and rehabilitation of vacant properties. Most of the economic impact from the infrastructure spending would be next year, though some of it would come in 2013, an administration official said.

“Ultimately, our recovery will be driven not by Washington, but by our businesses and workers,” the president said. “But we can help. We can make a difference.”

The administration estimated that $35 billion it’s seeking in direct aid to state and local governments to stem layoffs of educators and emergency personnel would save the jobs of 280,000 teachers, according to a White House fact sheet.

The centerpiece of the plan is cuts in payroll taxes, which cover the first $106,800 in earnings and are evenly split between employers and employees. Obama would reduce the portion paid by workers next year to 3.1 percent from 4.2 percent now. The rate was cut 2 percentage points under the terms of a tax deal reached last year. That cut is set to expire Dec. 31, which would push it back to 6.2 percent.

The White House also would use temporary payroll tax cuts next year to offer incentives for new hiring and assist small businesses.

Businesses would get the same 3.1-point reduction on taxes they pay on the first $5 million of their payroll, a limit that skews the benefit toward smaller firms. The full 6.2 percent employer contribution would be waived on the first $50 million net increase in a company’s payroll.

COMMENT:  The reaction to the speech thus far has been muted.  Democrats expressed mild enthusiasm, Republicans mild disapproval.  There will be more reaction, including opinions of economists, tomorrow.  The GOP plan apparently is to take individual parts of the president's program that they can accept, and add ideas of their own.  Mr. Obama presented his program as a complete package.  However, no one seriously believes it will go forward that way.

The administration will have other proposals in coming weeks.  It is difficult to see, though, how the plan the president announced tonight can make much of a difference.  Our problems are very deep, have developed over decades, and will require a rebirth in many sectors of the economy.

September 8, 2011       Permalink

We will not be live-blogging the president's speech.  Political abuse should not be rewarded.  But we will have comments later on its content, or lack thereof.

SIGN OF THE TIMES – AT 9:34 A.M. ET:   When you read this story, you can't help but be reminded of the Great Depression.  No, I don't think we're there yet, and I hope we don't get there.  But, under our current leadership, we're not heading in the other direction either.  From USA Today:

The number of businesses approved to accept food stamps grew by a third from 2005 to 2010, U.S. Department of Agriculture records show, as vendors from convenience and dollar discount stores to gas stations and pharmacies increasingly joined the growing entitlement program.

Now, restaurants, which typically have not participated in the program, are lobbying for a piece of the action.
Louisville-based Yum! Brands, whose restaurants include Taco Bell, KFC, Long John Silver's and Pizza Hut, is trying to get restaurants more involved, federal lobbying records show.

That's a prospect that anti-hunger advocates welcome, but one that worries some current food stamp vendors and public health advocates.

Federal rules generally prohibit food stamp benefits, which are distributed under the USDA's Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP), from being exchanged for prepared foods. Yet a provision dating to the 1970s allows states to allow restaurants to serve disabled, elderly and homeless people, USDA spokeswoman Jean Daniel said.

Between 2005 and 2010, the number of businesses certified in the SNAP program went from about 156,000 to nearly 209,000, according to USDA data.

COMMENT:  It's sad that businesses are striving for a bigger slice of the food-stamp pie.  Food stamps are a poverty program, and poverty is increasing dramatically. 

Another welcome for the president tonight.

September 8, 2011       Permalink

A GREETING FOR OBAMA – AT 9:12 A.M. ET:  The new unemployment report, out minutes ago, is a grim greeting for President Obama, as he prepares to speak to Congress tonight.  From Bloomberg:

Claims for U.S. unemployment benefits rose last week, a sign the labor market is struggling to gain traction more than two years after the recession ended.

Jobless claims rose by 2,000 to 414,000 in the week ended Sept. 3, Labor Department figures showed today in Washington. Economists surveyed by Bloomberg News projected a drop in claims to 405,000, according to the median forecast. The number of people on unemployment benefit rolls and those receiving extended payments fell.

Companies are stepping up the pace of firings, raising the risk that consumer spending will slow further. Job growth stagnated last month and the unemployment rate was unchanged at 9.1 percent, the Labor Department reported last week. The Labor Department said there was no national effect from Hurricane Irene.

COMMENT:  Well, I'm relieved they didn't blame the hurricane, or global warming.  But the fact is that any number above 400,000 is considered very bad, and that's where the numbers have been, week after week.

There is now growing, and serious, talk of a double-dip recession, just as we head into the presidential election season.  Hope and change, those winners from the 2008 campaign, are losers today.

September 8, 2011       Permalink

NEW WORRY OVER LIBYA – AT 8:58 A.M. ET:  As we count down to the 10th anniversary commemoration of the 9-11 attacks, America is on alert for new ones.  And now we have a new worry, which reflects a general concern about proliferation of major weapons, including WMD.  The question, which has planners concerned, revolves around the Gaddafi arsenal.  From WaPo:

AL-AJELAT, Libya — Documents showing the shipment of thousands of gas masks and chemical-weapons protection suits to Moammar Gaddafi’s remaining strongholds in the last weeks of his regime raised fresh concerns Wednesday about whether the deposed Libyan leader’s forces could still have access to deadly mustard gas.

The Pentagon and an international monitoring organization have said that Gaddafi’s remaining stockpiles are secure. But more than 11 tons of mustard gas is known to be accumulated in a country that suddenly lacks a strong central authority and where weapons are fast proliferating. Libyan rebels say they are concerned that Gaddafi holdouts could have access to the mustard gas and could use it in a last-ditch effort to halt advances by the opposition.

And that mustard gas can also find its way across borders, even oceans. 

The concern goes beyond mustard gas, as The New York Times reports:

TRIPOLI, Libya — The sign on the wall reads “Schoolbook Printing and Storage Warehouse,” but the fact that the double gates in the wall have been crudely ripped off suggests that something more interesting might be inside.

It turns out that the only books to be found in any of the three large buildings in the walled compound are manuals — how to fire rocket launchers and wire-guided missiles, among others. The buildings are actually disguised warehouses full of munitions — mortar shells, artillery rounds, anti-tank missiles and more — thousands of pieces of military ordnance that are completely unguarded more than two weeks after the fall of the capital.

Perhaps most interesting of all is what is no longer there, but until recent days apparently was: shoulder-fired heat-seeking missiles of the type that could be used by terrorists to shoot down civilian airliners. American authorities have long been concerned that Libyan missiles could easily find their way onto the black market.

COMMENT:  Our airports, and airports around the world, are vulnerable.  Planes taking off and landing could be targeted by one or two men with those shoulder-launched weapons, hiding in the tall grass near airports, or even in a building with an accessible rooftop.  That is one of the nightmare scenarios faced by terror experts. 

Not only could an airliner be brought down, but the act itself could disrupt the entire international air system.  How do you tell passengers their safety is guaranteed after a successful attempt to bring down a plane? 

This weekend's commemoration should remind us that the battle goes on.

September 8, 2011       Permalink

PASS THE POPCORN – AT 8:30 A.M. ET:  It feels like an old-time double feature at the local movie house.  We got the A-movie last night with the Republican debate.  Tonight the B-movie will run, starring Barack Obama in his latest sequel.  Can you stand the excitement?  Fox News has a preview of coming attractions:

With millions of Americans out of work and out of patience, President Barack Obama is going before a skeptical Congress to pitch an economic plan aimed at creating jobs urgently and forcing Republicans to own the problem with him.

The underlying political strategy: If Obama can't get his ideas passed heading into his re-election year, he at least hopes to show why he shouldn't take the fall.

That is reminiscent of Harry Truman running against the "do-nothing Congress" in 1948.  Problem is, Obama is no Truman.

In his speech Thursday, Obama is likely to offer at least a $300 billion package of ideas that would affect people in their daily lives -- tax relief, unemployment insurance, spending to support construction jobs, aid to states to keep people in their jobs. Businesses would get their own tax breaks. And he will promise a long-term plan to pay for it all.

Yet all of it ultimately will depend on a Republican-controlled House that has a different economic approach and no political incentive to help a Democrat seeking a second term.

So, however cooperative his tone, Obama's goal is also to put Republicans on the spot to act -- in their face, and in their chamber.

That is why Obama chose his most prominent venue, a joint session of Congress, a setting better known for his yearly State of the Union address. While the choice helps give him command of the stage, it also lifted expectations for a breakthrough moment, when the reality is that any sustained job growth will take many months, if not years...

...Before Obama even said a word, political and economic reality raised two questions: Will any of his ideas get approved, and will they actually work?

When asked about some of the ideas Obama is expected to discuss, majorities of Republicans, Democrats and independents were all skeptical that the proposals would do a lot to create jobs, a Pew Research Center poll out Wednesday found. A series of new polls by major news organizations finds that the mood of the country is downright dismal about the direction of the country, with Obama's standing and approval on the economy at or near the lowest levels of his presidency.

COMMENT:  Harry Truman was described as a man who "did the biggest things in the biggest ways and the littlest things in the littlest ways.  Obama does the biggest things in the littlest ways, incapable of graciousness and always trying to get in his partisan digs.  Orginally, remember, this speech was intentionally scheduled for the same time as the Republican debate last night, in a petty attempt to steal the GOP thunder.  The president backed down and moved the speech, under pressure from House Speaker John Boehner. 

I'm not expecting much, but I'm obligated to watch.  I feel like a critic forced to go to a bad movie.

September 8, 2011     Permalink