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SEPTEMBER 3,  2011

SHORT TAKES ON THE DRIFTING WRECKAGE – AT 11:31 P.M. ET:

A NEW SARAH?  – Sarah Palin sounded a new theme in Iowa today.  Well, actually, it was the old Sarah, the Sarah who was so successful as governor of Alaska.  She took on both parties in her speech today, but seemed to train her heaviest guns on "crony capitalism," the rackets that occur in big business.  She basically called for an end to corporate welfare, bailouts, and the corporate income tax.  In effect, she was telling corporations that the government would get off their back...but they had to make it on their own.  It was Palin's independence that established her star in the first place.  Sadly, though, it's largely been thrown away in the quest for celebrity.  I'm not sure she can get the polish back.

NEW TERROR WARNING – The FBI and the Department of Homeland Security have issued a new warning about Al Qaeda's interest in using small planes loaded with explosives to carry out attacks in the United States.  While there is apparently no detailed, credible threat at the moment, the new alert follows on other, similar alerts over the years.  Just after 9/11 the federal government grounded crop-dusting planes, believing Al Qaeda was interested in using them for an attack.  A small plane loaded with explosives could, of course, do devastating damage, especially if it were crashed into a loaded airliner on a runway, a train, a bus, or a school.  Some snicker at such concerns...until there's an attack.

OBAMA'S STRATEGY – According to The New York Times and other sources, the president's new economic strategy, just evolving, consists of showing contempt for Congress and enacting as many things on his own as the law allows.  In effect, he'll be running against the "do-nothing Congress," the phrase Harry Truman used in his 1948 election campaign.  Of course, one problem is that Obama isn't Truman, and the Senate is still controlled by Democrats.  Another problem is that Obama hasn't really proposed anything yet that could actually work.  A third problem is that Americans, according to polls, don't believe he's really capable of salvaging the economy.  Other than those problems, he's got it made. 

September 3, 2011       Permalink

THE SEPTEMBER GOP RUSH – AT 11:29 A.M. ET:  We are about to have an ultra-active political month, with the focus on the GOP race.  What happens in debates this month may well produce dramatic results, positive or negative, for several of the candidates:

WASHINGTON — The Republican race for the White House is about to accelerate dramatically, with a series of debates and events testing whether Rick Perry has staying power and Mitt Romney can keep focusing on the president instead of his GOP rivals.

September also may settle the field for good, with Sarah Palin perhaps deciding at last whether to run.

Perry, the Texas governor, jolted the party last month by leaping to the top of several national polls within days of joining the race. Now, three scheduled debates in 16 days, the first on Wednesday in California, will show how well he can stand alongside his competitors and field a range of questions.

That opening debate "will be most critical" for Perry because "it will be his first time out," said Terry Nelson, a campaign strategist who had worked for former Minnesota Gov. Tim Pawlenty, now out of the 2012 race.

Perry’s entrance has riveted political insiders and led to talk of how Romney, a former Massachusetts governor, should respond. It also siphoned off some of the buzz surrounding Minnesota Rep. Michele Bachmann, a tea party favorite previously considered by many observers to be Romney’s chief rival.

But GOP strategists warn that it’s very early, and polls at this stage are often poor predictors of what’s to come in next year’s voting to pick a nominee.

"There’s movement all over the place," said Kevin Madden, an unpaid adviser to Romney and a veteran of several campaigns.

COMMENT:  Good summary.  There may well be more political attention directed toward the Wednesday debate than toward the president's speech on jobs before a joint session of Congress.  That may tell you somethijng about who's important right now. 

Obviously, we'll be watching intently on Wednesday.  The debate will be held at the Reagan Library in California, a reminder of the Republican Party's legacy. 

September 3, 2011        Permalink

THIS WON'T GO AWAY – AT 10:46 A.M. ET:  It isn't very fashionable these days to talk about foreign policy and foreign threats.  We are developing a 1930s mentality, when domestic problems were so great that we just ignored the growing monsters in Europe and Asia.  That was someone else's problem.

For several generations after World War II we seemed to understand the mistakes we and other nations had made.  Now, the passage of time and the distorted teachings in the press and our universities are taking us once more into a period where ignoring foreign threats is becoming too much of a norm.  But these threats don't go away simply because we will it.  We are going to wake up very surprised one morning:

VIENNA: A possible military dimension to Iran's nuclear activities is worrying the United Nations nuclear watchdog, according to a confidential report.

The International Atomic Energy Agency is ''increasingly concerned about the possible existence in Iran of past or current undisclosed nuclear-related activities involving military-related organisations'', the report said.
These included ''activities related to the development of a nuclear payload for a missile'', according to the report, which is due to be discussed by the agency's board of governors at a five-day meeting starting on September 12.

The UN Security Council has issued four rounds of sanctions on Iran to force it to suspend uranium enrichment, a process that can produce fuel for use in a reactor or a nuclear warhead.

The Islamic republic began its 20 per cent enrichment in February last year, theoretically bringing it closer to the 90 per cent level required to make an atomic bomb.

Tehran insists that its activities are aimed exclusively at developing nuclear power. A diplomat admitted on condition of anonymity that Iran was also making ''lots of efforts'' to get its Fordo enrichment plant, deep inside a mountain near the Shiite shrine city of Qom, operational as soon as possible.

COMMENT:  It's nice to see that the UN has noticed.  There are multiple sanctions in place against Iran, and they haven't done a bit of good.  Yet, our president seems little interested.   He was far more interested in pushing our main Arab ally, Hosni Mubarak, out of office.

Iran's growing nuclear program is having the expected side effects, even before a bomb is tested:  Other nations are cozying up to Iran, and that includes our so-called "ally," Iraq.  We grow weaker, the Iranians grow stronger, and they are fanatics who may just use a nuclear bomb if they get it.

September 3, 2011       Permalink

WHERE OBAMA STANDS – AT 10:14 A.M. ET:  In three days the political season will officially begin.  This is an off-year, but we start our political campaigns early in America.

Already there are signs that the upcoming fight will be brutal.  It is expected by many, as Howard Fineman reports, that the Dems, in particular, will wage a vicious, negative campaign that might make Joe McCarthy look like the king of ethics.  They have very little record to run on – Obama's greatest accomplishment is the number of vacations he's managed to take – and so they must divert the eyes of the public and direct attention to the opposition. 

As we enter this Labor Day weekend, where does the president stand?  Scott Rasmussen reports:

The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Saturday shows that 19% of the nation's voters Strongly Approve of the way that Barack Obama is performing his role as president. Forty percent (40%) Strongly Disapprove, giving Obama a Presidential Approval Index rating of -21.

And overall:

Overall, 45% of voters say they at least somewhat approve of the president's performance. Fifty-four percent (54%) at least somewhat disapprove.

COMMENT:  We should note that Gallup has had the president's approval as low as 38% this past month.  The president's numbers are weak, but far from impossible.  In fact, in the Rasmussen survey he normally defeats Republican competitors.  Rick Perry now beats Mr. Obama by a few points, but the lead is well within the margin of error.  The race must still be called fluid, with Mr. Obama having the advantage of incumbency and a still swooning press.

September 3, 2011     Permalink

SEPTEMBER 2, 2011

SHORT TAKES ON THE DRIFTING WRECKAGE – AT 11:52 P.M. ET:

WITH 2012 IN MIND – President Obama stunned his environmental appointees by overruling a new EPA plan to improve air quality, and cheering business leaders who had campaigned against it.  Clearly, the president had the election in mind.  He does not wish to expose himself to the charge of costing business additional millions, or billions, at a time when funds should be devoted to hiring people.  There are no reports on Al Gore's reaction, but there was a report of a man fitting Gore's description, standing atop the Grand Canyon with a thermometer, and threatening to jump.

BUT WE CAN'T WAIT – It may be a way of lowering expectations, but administration officials are passing the word that President Obama will not present his entire jobs plan before a joint session of Congress next week.  White House officials say that the overall plan will be rolled out during the fall.  I guess this is like reality television.  Why do I think they really don't have a plan?  Could it possibly be that they haven't had one for two and a half years?  At least the president gives us something to look forward to, characteristic of the showman that he is. 

JOBS REPORT STIRS NEW FEARS – The stunning jobs report just out, indicating that this country created no new jobs last month, is producing the most serious talk of a new recession – a "double dip" recession – in many months.  The country must create at least 150,000 jobs each month just to keep pace with population growth.  We now face the possibility of a real retrenchment that can go on for years.  Should the president's speech fail next week, and expectations aren't all that high, the psychological effect can add to the devastation.  But Republicans must respond with a clear, understandable economic plan of their own.  "No new taxes" is not a plan.  It's a slogan.  Americans are looking seriously for leadership, and I don't really see the GOP providing it...yet.

September 2, 2011       Permalink

QUOTE OF THE DAY – AT 10:49 A.M. ET:  In one of the best columns I've ever read about Barack Obama, scholar Shelby Steele nails the president and what's wrong with him.  What's wrong with him, in brief, is that he doesn't accept the very premise of the United States of America:

Anti-exceptionalism has clearly shaped his "leading from behind" profile abroad—an offer of self-effacement to offset the presumed American evil of swaggering cowboyism. Once in office his "hope and change" campaign slogan came to look like the "hope" of overcoming American exceptionalism and "change" away from it.

So, in Mr. Obama, America gained a president with ambivalence, if not some antipathy, toward the singular greatness of the nation he had been elected to lead.

But then again, the American people did elect him. Clearly Americans were looking for a new kind of exceptionalism in him (a black president would show America to have achieved near perfect social mobility). But were they also looking for—in Mr. Obama—an assault on America's bedrock exceptionalism of military, economic and cultural pre-eminence?

American exceptionalism is, among other things, the result of a difficult rigor: the use of individual initiative as the engine of development within a society that strives to ensure individual freedom through the rule of law. Over time a society like this will become great. This is how—despite all our flagrant shortcomings and self-betrayals—America evolved into an exceptional nation.

COMMENT:  Wonderfully stated.  And I think that critique defines, not only Obama, but the people around him, and the people in the press and the universities who support him.  They really don't much like their country.  When they speak of "change" they're speaking about things so basic that they go to the core values of this country.

And anyone who tries to question them is called anti-intellectual, a warmonger, a racist, or a McCarthyite.  Welcome to the world of intelligent discussion. 

September 2, 2011       Permalink 

GOP INSIDERS PREFER ROMNEY – AT 9:41 A.M. ET:  We're talking about "conventional wisdom" here.  And we should be quick to point out that "conventional wisdom" within the GOP in 1980 said that Reagan could never be elected.  So, take this with a grain of salt, or a more politically correct seasoning.  From The National Journal:

Texas Gov. Rick Perry may be surging in polls of Republican primary voters, but his party's Insiders aren't convinced he'd be the best general election candidate. More than two-thirds of Republican Insiders say Mitt Romney has a better chance than Perry of defeating President Obama in 2012, according to this week's National Journal Political Insiders Poll.

Many Republican Insiders acknowledged Perry's appeal to conservatives but questioned his ability to win over independent voters. "Perry can fire up the base, but this election will be won in the middle, not on the fringes," said one. Said another, "Having trouble ID-ing a single independent who'd vote for Perry."

Democratic Insiders echoed that assessment by an even larger majority. "This election is sitting on a platter for Republicans if they do it right," said one. "Romney is probably good enough. Perry will get drilled by independent voters and women." Another quipped, "Rick Perry is all base and no swing."

Insiders in both parties raised questions about Perry's durability under the intense scrutiny of a presidential campaign. "As a conservative Republican, I love Rick Perry," said one Republican Insider, who added "but as a campaign strategist, I know the degree to which a few self-reinforcing oppo-hits can devastate a candidate." A Democratic Insider said plainly, "Perry's mouth will do him in."

COMMENT:  I have to say that I share those concerns.  Perry has a long paper trail, and part of it is made up of quotes that can be devastating to independents, like his claim that Social Security is unconstitutional.  He is one of the easiest candidates to run against, at least on paper, than anyone I've ever seen in the presidential sweepstakes.

On the other hand...Perry is known as a shrewd, effective campaigner, someone who's never lost an election.  Reagan was able to overcome his image as a far-out right-wing guy buy effectively marketing himself.   Of course, Reagan was already a national figure by the time he got the Republican 1980 nomination. 

Can Perry do a Reagan?  There are three debates this month.  I suspect we're going to find out.

September 2, 2011        Permalink

ON THIS DAY – AT 8:59 A.M. ET:  On September 2, 1945, aboard the battleship Missouri in Tokyo Bay, Japan formally surrendered to the Allied powers, thus ending World War II. 

All of us have seen the famous footage of Douglas MacArthur ordering the Japanese emissaries to sign "at the places indicated."

How optimistic we were then.  Victory was complete.  The Depression was over, although we'd go into a recession right after the war as defense production was cut back.  But we had emerged as the superpower, victorious in war, and the only nation that could build and deliver an atomic bomb.  It is now 66 years later.  We are still a great superpower, but struggling.  Years of mismanagement, bloated government, crony capitalism, and the unrelenting haranguing by the political left have made us doubt ourselves and crippled our once-thriving economy.

We even fight our wars with one hand tied behind our back, and with a spirit, not of victory, but of apology.  The left has certainly done a number on this country.

We are in desperate need of new leadership.  We have a chance next year.  The question is whether we, on our side, are up to the fight.  And we must ask whether our institutions are up to that fight.  There was a time when we would say that we could take four years of a bad administration because the damage could be repaired.  I'm not so sure any longer.  A lazy, biased press, combined with an equally lazy, and equally biased, educational system represent a one-two punch that can make real progress impossible.

In 1945 we were a nation that produced things.  We built our ships, planes, tanks, and vehicles.  "Made in the USA" was stamped on almost every product.  Compare please to today.  "Made in China" is probably the phrase we see more often than any other every day. 

Japan and Germany, lying in rubble in 1945, are now modern, vigorous nations.  Some of our allies, like France and Britain, lag behind, Britain having sold off even some of its most famous names, like Rolls-Royce and Jaguar, to foreign buyers. 

In 1945 we had Harry Truman as president, and had just lost FDR.  Whether one likes some of their policies or not, they were both committed to victory, and unashamedly so.  Compare please to Barack Obama.

Victory in 1945 came after three years and nine months of struggle.  We entered World War II with a feeling of desperation, but we prevailed.  And today?  Are you confident?

September 2, 2011       Permalink

BARACK, REVISE YOUR SPEECH – AT 8:48 A.M. ET:  The president speaks to the nation next week about jobs and the economy, undoubtedly reflecting the wisdom on these subjects that he absorbed at Martha's Vineyard.   Meanwhile, back at the ranch, things aren't cooking so well.  From Bloomberg:

Employment in the U.S. unexpectedly stagnated in August and the jobless rate held at 9.1 percent as American employers became less confident in the strength of the recovery.

Payrolls were unchanged last month, the weakest reading since September 2010, after an 85,000 gain in July that was less than initially estimated, Labor Department data showed today in Washington. The median forecast in a Bloomberg News survey called for a rise of 65,000. Hourly earnings and hours worked both declined. The August data included a 48,000 drop in information industry jobs, mostly reflecting striking Verizon Communications Inc. (VZ) workers.

The first U.S. credit downgrade, political squabbling over the budget and mounting fear of a default in Europe caused the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index to plummet 17 percent from July 22 to Aug. 8, prompting companies and consumers to cut back. The lack of hiring is one reason Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke last week said the central bank still has tools available to stimulate growth.

COMMENT:  We don't have a parliamentary system in America.  If we did, Obama would surely lose a "no confidence" vote in the House, and would come close in the Senate.  Does anyone have confidence that this administration can turn it around? 

What employers and others see is a lack of urgency, underlined by the president's delay in giving his much-advertised speech until getting in the full value of a Vineyard vacation.  They don't see an engaged or experienced president.

And yet, this man may well be reelected.  If he is, he will be able to do what he wants for four years, since he'd have no political reason to show restraint.  (He'd be ineligible to run again.)   Does that send a chill up your spine?  It should.

September 2, 2011     Permalink