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OCTOBER 28,  2011

SHORT TAKES ON THE DRIFTING WRECKAGE – AT 11:29 P.M. ET:

IRAN IN THEIR SIGHTS? –  There are stories circulating today speculating that Israel's recent swap of large numbers of Arab prisoners for two Israelis was meant to clear the decks in preparation for an Israeli attack on Iran's nuclear installations.  Leon Panetta was recently dispatched to Israel to warn that the U.S. would not back unilateral action against Tehran.  But some say that Israel, faced with what it sees as an existential threat, may decide to act on its own.  Personally, I'm skeptical of reports of Israeli action, but the Iranian threat is growing, and sanctions applied by the West so far have not stopped it.

ANOTHER DEFENSE WARNING – The assistant commandant of the Marine Corps warned, in congressional testimony, that proposed budget cuts could make it impossible for the Corps to carry out its assigned missions.  And the Air Force vice chief of staff testified that his service is flying the oldest fleet of aircraft in its history, and has fewer planes than during the 1991 Gulf war.  Further, Gen. Peter Chiarelli, Army vice chief of staff, cautioned that we're now repeating a mistake we've made before – cutting defense to the point where we're unprepared for future threats.  We did it after World War II.  We did it after Vietnam.

PARTY FEUD – Fissures within the Republican Party are starting to grow more prominent.  Michele Bachmann is now accusing Rick Perry of instigating a call by a Tea Party faction that Bachmann withdraw from the race.  Bachmann concedes she has no proof, but that she'd heard "talk."   Bachmann has gotten into trouble before by stating rumors or "stories" as fact.  This charge, whether true or not, will not help her cause.  At the same time, Perry shows no signs of discouragement and appears ready, and financially able, to fight on for the nomination despite declining poll numbers.

HERMAN ON HEALTH – Herman Cain has gotten plenty of heat from those who feel his campaign has been sloppy, uninformed, and focused too narrowly on Cain's 9-9-9 tax-reform proposal.  Cain will speak for 45-minutes on Capitol Hill next week, giving his perspective on health care.  He promises to unveil new health-care proposals, which undoubtedly will make news, simply because they are coming from Herman Cain.  While Cain is leading in some polls, few seriously expect him to be the GOP nominee, and he has displayed little ability to discuss a wide range of issues, foreign or domestic.

October 28, 2011       Permalink 

BORING – AT 9:17 A.M. ET:  The "occupy" movement was somewhat interesting three weeks ago.  But one characteristic of left-wing movements is immaturity, and the immediate effect of immaturity is to wear out one's welcome.  Unruly teenagers become boring very quickly.  The occupiers have yet to come up with a coherent program, make suggestions that could capture the public imagination, or make any effective use of the generous TV time they've been given.  Now they're onto more protests that seem nothing more than a nostalgic runback to the 1960s.  Isn't it fun?

(CNN) -- Occupy Wall Street demonstrators are scheduled to march on the offices of five major banks and financial-services firms in Manhattan on Friday, a day after a California mayor apologized for a police crackdown against demonstrators that left an Iraq war veteran hospitalized.

New York organizers say thousands of demonstrators will march to the offices of Bank of America, Morgan Stanley, Wells Fargo, Citigroup and JP Morgan Chase.

Demonstrators have typically railed against what they describe as corporate greed, arrogance and power, as well as their assertion that the nation's wealthiest 1% hold inordinate sway over the remaining 99% of the population.

In Oakland, California, Mayor Jean Quan apologized Wednesday for violence that broke out this week during an Occupy movement protest.

COMMENT:  The "movement" is running out of steam.  It was intriguing three weeks ago.  Now it's a nuisance, with increasing complaints about noise, harassment of locals, and far worse.  As for the violence, I don't have the facts.  The police have a hard job in patrolling these sites.  They're provoked, and, on balance, they've shown great restraint.  If there are, however, cases of police excess, they must be dealt with quickly and effectively by police commissioners and mayors.  A police force, like a military force, must be disciplined and professional.

The issue of "rights" is involved here.  The protesters have a right to demonstrate, to hold up signs, even to chant at certain times.  But I think most Americans are starting to wonder whether anyone has the right to camp out and occupy land, either public or private, 24 hours a day.  I don't know where such a right originates. 

The demonstrators have made a point.  Now it's time for them to grow up a bit, present a program, and let the people – whom they claim to love so much, but don't – make their decisions.  That would be real democracy.

October 28, 2011       Permalink

LIBERALS EATING THEIR OWN AGAIN – AT 8:34 A.M. ET:  Liberals are suffering substantial family disappointment these days.  Their brethren in Congress, they say, are forever letting them down.  The latest whine has to do with the supercommittee deciding on critical budget issues.  What?  You mean we have a problem?   The Hill reports:

Liberals on and off Capitol Hill agonized Thursday that supercommittee Democrats had bungled early negotiations over a budget deal and put their party in a position to be bested again by Republicans.

By proposing significant cuts to Medicare and Medicaid as an early offering, liberals said the panel Democrats weakened their party’s negotiating position as Republicans, who have ceded no ground on their central anti-tax message, sat back and watched.

“My fear is that this is déjà vu all over again,” said Rep. Peter Welch (D-Vt.), one of the dozens of liberals who thought the White House cornered itself in the summer debt-ceiling talks by floating similar entitlement cuts to the GOP in negotiations led by Vice President Biden.

“This is essentially what happened in the Biden talks,” Welch said. “The Democrats were putting concrete proposals on the table [including entitlement cuts] and the Republicans never came forward with concrete revenues to match it.

COMMENT:  You know, guys, you don't get too many second chances in politics.  You'd think you'd come prepared to negotiate intelligently.  As for the Republicans, they're hardly out of the woods.  The popularity of their party is in the basement.  Instead of going just for some temporary "victory," they should come up with proposals that can be broadly supported, especially by independents. 

If Medicare is cut, you can hear the howling in major segments of the public.  And Republicans, especially if they don't come up with equitable proposals, will be blamed, no matter how badly the Dems negotiate.  So, I hope our side just doesn't gloat over our opponents' incompetence.  It isn't enough.

October 28, 2011       Permalink

THE ROMNEY FACTOR – AT 7:37 A.M. ET:  With Mitt Romney doing very well in polls in early primary states, the "stoppability" factor comes into play.  "Stop Romney!" will become the theme of many disgruntled Republicans who hope to stop the frontrunning, but not terribly popular candidate.  The stoppers believe they have a chance in Iowa.  From the Washington Examiner:

DES MOINES, IOWA -- Republican presidential contender Mitt Romney is largely taking a pass in Iowa's first-in-the-nation caucuses, creating an opportunity for one of his rivals to excel in the Hawkeye State and charge into New Hampshire as the conservative alternative to Romney.

Romney spent less than $200,000 so far in Iowa, compared with the $10 million he spent on advertising alone during his first presidential run in 2008, an investment that didn't pay off given that he finished second in the caucuses, behind Mike Huckabee.

Romney built a much leaner campaign in Iowa this time. He's relying more on volunteers than paid staffers and he has yet to make any major advertising buys, according to David Kochel, Romney's top Iowa adviser.

"I don't think Romney is required to win Iowa," Kochel told The Washington Examiner. "Iowa has more to do with having wind at our back going into New Hampshire."

With Romney barely paying attention to Iowa, other presidential contenders see an opportunity.

"What Iowa has now become is the first fight in the battle of who will become the anti-Romney," said Dennis J. Goldford, a Drake University political science professor and author of "The Iowa Precinct Caucuses: The Making of a Media Event."

The Jan. 3 Iowa caucuses mark the first opportunity for the "anti-Romney candidates" to prove their viability to voters because the caucuses require candidates to demonstrate that they can build and run an effective organization.

COMMENT:  For the record, "stop" movements very rarely work.  In fact, I can't recall one that has worked in many years.  The reason, of course, is that they get started too late, when the target is already well ahead, with real momentum, even if that target doesn't arouse much enthusiasm.

The Republican race is still open.  However, unless there's really an effective alternative to Romney presented, and unless that alternative runs a flawless campaign, Romney will probably get the nod.  One hand clapping.

October 28, 2011       Permalink

MORE 9-11 QUESTIONS EMERGE – AT 7:16 A.M. ET:  Ten years after the attacks, congressional investigators still want more answers about 9-11, and that is good.  We still may not know the extent of the support network that made the obscenities possible.  From Fox:

House Homeland Security Committee investigators want the 9/11 suspects questioned about the American cleric Anwar al-Awlaki and his possible role in the murder of nearly 3,000 Americans, Fox News has learned.

Three letters sent Tuesday and obtained by Fox News show the committee's investigation into the cleric, who was killed in a CIA-led operation in Yemen on Sept. 30, has broadened since his death.

In the first letter, Rep. Peter King, R-N.Y., chairman of the House Homeland Security Committee, wrote to Lt. Gen. Ronald Burgess, director of the Defense Intelligence Agency, which is responsible for directing interrogations of detainees in military custody at Guantanamo, including the self-described architect of the Sept. 11 terrorist attacks, Khalid Sheikh Mohammed.

King asked the agency to question detainees involved in plotting 9/11 about the possible roles of Eyad al-Rababah of Jordan, Daoud Chehazeh of Syria and Awlaki in the terror attack.

"I understand that these detainees have not been interrogated in several years, and certainly not since Awlaki's role within Al Qaeda became widely acknowledged in 2009," King wrote.

Al-Rababah and Chehazeh were first profiled by the Fox News Specials Unit in "Secrets of 9/11," which aired in May. The investigation outlined the domestic support network that allowed the Sept. 11, 2001, hijackers to move around the U.S. with ease.

It also presented new and compelling evidence that Awlaki was an overlooked player in the Sept. 11 plot who slipped through the FBI's grasp after the attack.

COMMENT:  Peter King is on the job, as always.  Although denounced, absurdly, as an Islamophobe, he has been an insistent, and consistent, investigator into terrorist threats against the United States.  Applaud his work.

October 28, 2011     Permalink 

OCTOBER 27,  2011

SHORT TAKES ON THE DRIFTING WRECKAGE – AT 9:02 P.M. ET:

WARNING TO REPUBLICANS? – A new poll for TIME shows Hillary Clinton easily defeating any of the potential Republican presidential nominees.  Obama defeats them as well, although by much smaller margins.  The poll signals something that is increasingly showing up in political chatter – a worry that, although Obama's approval ratings are low, he is still seen as preferable the weak Republican field.  This may change, of course, once the Republicans settle on a nominee, but any thought that this race will be easy for the GOP should be consigned to the famous junk heap of history.

GOOD SIGN, OR MIRAGE? – The stock market has just had its biggest monthly rally since 1974.  Is this a sign of better times ahead, or a statistical fluke?  Historically, the stock market and the real economy have often been separated.  There was a rising stock market between 1933 and 1937, the worst years of the Great Depression.  However, a new deal that seems to have put off a European crisis clearly is giving encouragement to financial circles, and unemployment, while still high, hasn't worsened in the U.S.  Clearly, signs of a rising economy will dramatically help Obama.

MANY USES – The first batch of shoes equipped with GPS devices has just been shipped by GTX Corporation.  The purpose of the new fashion is to track Alzheimer's or dementia patients who get lost.  Obviously, there are other uses.  It is understood that Hillary Clinton has bought a pair for Bill, whose wanderings will now be tracked by the State Department.  Members of Congress could be required by law to wear the shoes, so their constituents can learn where they actually spend their time in Washington.  The GPS service will presumably give exact locations, by motel name.

A NEW FRONT AGAINST TERROR – The Washington Post reports that the United States is now flying counterterrorism drones from southern Ethiopia as part of a proxy war against an Al Qaeda affiliate in East Africa.  The targets are in Somalia, where Washington has been reluctant to deploy any ground forces.  However, it is expected that the mission may well be expanded to include Special Forces soldiers and CIA personnel.  There are also other new U.S. drone bases being built for operations in Africa.

October 27, 2011     Permalink

SO-SO PROGRESS IN THE JOBLESS RATE – AT 8:50 A.M. ET:  There was a slight improvement last week in the unemployment statistics, but we're talking shadows here.  From Bloomberg:

Fewer Americans filed applications for unemployment assistance last week, while those on benefit rolls dropped to a three-year low, signaling limited improvement in the labor market.

First-time jobless claims decreased by 2,000 to 402,000 in the week ended Oct. 22, Labor Department figures showed today in Washington. The median forecast of economists in a Bloomberg News survey called for a drop to 401,000. The number of people collecting unemployment benefits fell in the prior week by 96,000 to 3.65 million, the fewest since September 2008.

Bottom line:  Any number above 400,000 is considered bad.

Waning dismissals, which lay the groundwork for gains in payrolls, may forestall cutbacks by consumers whose spending accounts for about 70 percent of the economy. At the same time, faster hiring is needed to trim unemployment, lift household confidence and spur the recovery.

“Any improvement is better than none, but the labor market is showing very slow progress,” Jennifer Lee, an economist at BMO Capital Markets in Toronto, said before the report. “There’s reluctance to hire unless absolutely necessary. The jobless rate is unlikely to taper off below 9 percent in the next few months.”

COMMENT:  There will be another report out later this morning on economic growth in the U.S., and predictions are that it should be fairly strong.  But it's the employment numbers that bring pain.  Add to the raw numbers the number of Americans who are underemployed or have had to settle for part-time work, and the picture is grim.  We may well have a jobless recovery, with all the election implications that can have.

And the standard of living for most Americans, according to statistics, is either frozen or declining.  As we noted in the post just below, pessimism seems to be the national mood.  Politically, the Republicans must present a clear alternative that is believable to a skeptical, increasingly angry country.

October 27, 2011       Permalink

HOPE AND CHANGE?  REALLY? – AT 8:34 A.M. ET:  Ah, to have an inspirational president.  Can't you just see the smiles on the faces of Americans, their optimism, their belief that they are being saved by Washington?  You can't?  Hmm.  Maybe I got that wrong.

Actually, the hope 'n change department has closed because of lack of customers.  Some things just can't be sold.  From The Hill:

More than two-thirds of voters say the United States is declining, and a clear majority think the next generation will be worse off than this one, according to the results of a new poll commissioned by The Hill.

A resounding 69 percent of respondents said the country is “in decline,” the survey found, while 57 percent predict today’s kids won’t live better lives than their parents. Additionally, 83 percent of voters indicated they’re either very or somewhat worried about the future of the nation, with 49 percent saying they’re “very worried.”

The results suggest that Americans don’t view the country’s current economic and political troubles as temporary, but instead see them continuing for many years.

Now why would they think that, with Barack Obama in the White House and Nancy Pelosi in The House?  I can't think of a good reason.

It isn't just Obama, of course.  Congress doesn't rank very well, and, even with Republican control of the House, we have to note that point.

The degree of pessimism, however, varies sharply by race and party affiliation, The Hill Poll found. Republicans, for instance, have less hope for the country’s future, with 90 percent saying the United States is declining and 66 percent predicting today’s kids will be worse off than their parents. By contrast, fewer than half of Democratic respondents indicated the country is in decline (47 percent) or fear for the next generation’s living standards (45 percent).

Oddly enough, African Americans — who were hammered much harder by the recession than whites — are more optimistic about the direction of the country, with 30 percent of black respondents saying the United States is deteriorating, versus 74 percent of whites.

There may be some understandable racial loyalty toward Obama in that.  The fact is, if we continue sliding, the poor and minorities will suffer most.

So the president who came in on a cloud of optimism and wild predictions ("the oceans will recede") now faces a country that has been Carterized once again.  The answer the first time was Ronald Reagan.  Well, we don't have a Reagan, which is why Republicans are going to have to fight for every vote next year.  No matter how bad things are, many Americans still prefer sticking with the devil they know.  And that's some devil.

October 27, 2011       Permalink

WITH A JUSTICE DEPARTMENT LIKE THIS, WHO NEEDS CRIMINALS? – AT 8:14 A.M. ET:  Eric Holder's goofball Justice Department seems determined to bring that good old sixties sensibility to one of the most important agencies of government.

One of the things Obama has done pretty well is to aggressively pursue international terrorism.  That doesn't mean we approve of his overall foreign policy.  As readers of this site know, we don't.  But Obama's specific actions against terror have often been praiseworthy.  Therefore, we view with complete dismay the actions of his own Justice Department in frustrating anti-terror efforts here at home by de-linking terrorism and Islamic extremism.  Investor's Business Daily has a great comment on this:

The bleaching of Islam from the terror picture is almost complete. Eric Holder has ordered a purge of FBI training manuals. Soon the 9/11 hijackers' religion will be censored, too.

Last week, top Justice Department officials huddled with several Islamic groups — including a Muslim Brotherhood front implicated in a terror-finance scheme — to discuss "post-9/11 discrimination." They promised the aggrieved they'd pull back references to Islam from terror-training materials.

"I recently directed all components of the Department of Justice to re-evaluate their training efforts," Deputy Attorney General James Cole announced during the Washington conference. U.S. Attorney Dwight Holton explained that FBI training materials that even remotely link Islam to violence will be banned.

"I want to be perfectly clear about this: Training materials that portray Islam as a religion of violence or with a tendency towards violence are wrong, they are offensive and they are contrary to everything this president, this attorney general and Department of Justice stands for," he told Muslim activists gathered at the George Washington University law school. "They will not be tolerated." (Emphasis added.)

So apparently, reality will no longer be tolerated in counterterror programs. In Islam, there's clear doctrinal basis for jihad, which is why almost every Muslim terrorist cites it as a motivating factor.

And...

This latest unilateral disarmament was precipitated by complaints from the Council on American-Islamic Relations and other Islamist groups, who have threatened to end "cooperation" with the FBI unless it nixes jihad and other Islamic terms from training materials.

Such a threat from terror-tied CAIR is laughable. The FBI has banned the group from outreach functions, and it was excluded from the Justice meeting. However, its sister organization — the Islamic Society of North America — was invited, though Justice prosecutors just three years ago named ISNA an "unindicted co-conspirator" in the largest terror-finance case in U.S. history...

...Allowing ISNA to now have a say in how the department investigates terrorism is outrageous. Yet there ISNA's president was, seated at the same table with top Justice officials, mau-mauing them about the "law."

And...

So when five Moroccans are caught breaking into a San Antonio courthouse after taking photos of courthouses and other public buildings in cities nationwide, we should just believe them when they say they were merely tourists "trying to get a better view of the city."

Nothing to investigate here. The men's religion is irrelevant. And when passengers ram cockpit doors while screaming "Allahu Akbar!" — as a Yemeni recently did on an American Airlines flight — we should just write it off to in-flight stress. Nothing to see here, move along.

COMMENT:  It is not promoting bigotry to examine the relationship between extreme Islam and terrorism.  The relationship has been clear.  Some goodie two-shoes pundits whine that, whenever there's a terrorist attack, we immediately speculate that it was done by Muslim extremists.  The reason we speculate is the reality of statistics.  Obviously, not all Muslims are terrorists, but a disturbingly high proportion of terror attacks are carried out by extreme Muslims.  The Muslim world has a problem.  It is now our problem.  While fully protecting the innocent Muslim population, dealing with the problem must be done realistically, not in accordance with the tenets of political correctness.

October 27, 2011       Permalink

HILL TO THE HILL, LEGISLATORS FUMING – AT 7:44 A.M. ET:  Hillary Clinton heads to Capitol Hill to deal with a mini-revolt among members of Congress over the disgraceful comments of occasional ally, Afghan President Hamid Karzai.  From The Politico:

When Hillary Clinton heads to Capitol Hill Thursday, the secretary of state can expect to face questions from lawmakers who are furious with Afghanistan President Hamid Karzai’s recent comment that he would side with Pakistan should a U.S.-Pakistan conflict arise.

As the Associated Press reports, a number of lawmakers, including some supporters of the war in Afghanistan, have reacted angrily to Karzai’s comments...

...Karzai told a Pakistani TV station recently, “God forbid, if ever there is a war between Pakistan and America, Afghanistan will side with Pakistan.”

Calling Pakistan a “brother” to the Afghan nation, Karzai also said the tension in the U.S.-Pakistan relationship has “not had an impact on our attitude toward Pakistan.”

“Now more than ever, President Karzai’s insult to America tells me that it’s time for our country to stop pouring our limited taxpayer dollars and losing precious American lives in a country where we aren’t even welcome - and even worse, where they have the gall to threaten to side against us,” said Sen. Joe Manchin, (D-W.Va.), a member of the Senate Armed Services Committee, according to the AP.

COMMENT:  Karzai is a corrupt fool, a liar, and a political degenerate.  Other than that, a fine man.

Look, we've had problems with allies in wartime before.  Winston Churchill famously said, during World War II, that the greatest cross he had to bear was the Cross of Lorraine, the symbol of the Free French forces.  He was referring, of course, to Charles DeGaulle.

The difference is that, in World War II, there was a clear path to victory.  In Afghanistan, there really isn't.  The patience of the American people is wearing thin. 

At the same time, even individuals like Karzai might be redeemable if they see a stalwart, resolute America.  Instead, they see a weak, vacillating president who gives enemies timetables for our withdrawal.  So, the Karzais of the universe look elsewhere for allies and consistency.

Karzai is bad news.  However, expressions of weakness never bring us friends, only contempt.  We're getting that both from Karzai and the current regime in Iraq.

October 27, 2011     Permalink