Please note that you can leave a comment on any of our posts at our Facebook page.  Subscribers can also comment at length at our Angel's Corner Forum

OCTOBER 20,  2011 

SHORT TAKES ON THE DRIFTING WRECKAGE – AT 11:01 P.M. ET:

IT DIDN'T TAKE LONG – Obama-friendly journalists are already spinning the death of Muammar Gaddafi as a great victory for President Obama, and contrasting it with the BUSH (!!) war in Iraq, with its casualties and cost.  This, of course, is absurd.  Libya has a population of about 6.5 million, whereas Iraq has more than 31 million.  Iraq had a major military force and no internal revolt.  Libya's military force was minor and the country's revolution  was underway before we intervened.  But the Obama army won't let the details get in their way.  When have they ever?

OCCUPY OAKLAND – Crimes, mostly thefts, have been reported at a number of the "occupy" sites springing up around the country, but nothing compares to reports out of Oakland, California, where the occupy site has degenerated into rat infestation, sexual harassment, public sex, drug dealing, child endangerment, and violent threats against reporters.  The occupiers have now apparently banned the media from the occupy sites.  The sad fact is that there are legitimate complaints against some corprations and Wall Street operations, but they are being drowned out by the degenerating behavior of many of the protesters.

A REMINDER – Two Minnesota women, Amina Farah Ali and Hawo Mohamed Hassan, have been convicted in Minneapolis of funneling money to a terrorist group in Somalia.  Both women are U.S. citizens of Somali descent. The two are among 20 Somali-Americans charged with aiding al-Shabab, a Somalian group with ties to Al Qaeda. In recent years a number of Somali men have suddenly disappeared from Minnesota, and it is feared that they have gone to Somalia to join terror groups. 

CAIN LEADS IN IOWA – A new Rasmussen poll shows that Herman Cain has jumped into the lead among Republicans in Iowa.  Iowa is crucial because it holds one of the first primaries.  In Iowa's case, the caucus system is used.  Cain gets 28% of the vote, Romney 21%, Ron Paul 10%, Gingrich 9%, Bachmann 8%, and Rick Perry 7%.  Perry's showing is especially weak because he was the frontrunner in Iowa in early September.  The survey was taken yesterday, a day after the GOP debate in Las Vegas.

October 20, 2011       Permalink

NEW JOBLESS REPORT – AT 9:35 A.M. ET:  Despite a desperate attempt to put a good face on it,  the weekly report of unemployment claims does not contain much encouraging news.  From Bloomberg:

The number of Americans filing applications for unemployment benefits declined last week to a level that shows little improvement in the labor market since the start of the year.

Jobless claims dropped by 6,000 to 403,000 in the week ended Oct. 15, Labor Department figures showed today in Washington. The median forecast in a Bloomberg News survey called for a drop to 400,000 applications. The four-week average fell to the lowest level since April.

Some companies are still paring their workforces at the same time demand has fallen short of the level that may spur businesses to expand staff. The lack of employment growth, which is limiting consumer spending and restraining the recovery, underscores the challenge for President Barack Obama, who is trying to push Congress to pass parts of his jobs initiative.

“We’re running in place,” said Scott Brown, chief economist at Raymond James & Associates Inc. in St. Petersburg, Florida, who projected 405,000 claims. The data are “consistent with lackluster to moderate growth in the job market and the economy,” he said.

And there's this, from Business Insider:

While the number of unemployed workers has held steady at around 14 million in recent months, another telling measure of frustration in the labor market—the number of underemployed individuals—rose for a third consecutive month in September, by almost a half of a million people.

Almost 9.3 million Americans are considered underemployed, defined by the Bureau of Labor Statistics as working part-time for economic reasons, such as unfavorable business conditions or seasonal declines in demand.

That's up from just over 8 million in July, but down from a peak of about 9.5 million in September 2010. In addition, about 2.5 million individuals are considered "marginally attached to the labor force," meaning they were not in the labor force, wanted and were available for work, and looked for a job sometime in the prior 12 months. (They are not counted as unemployed because they had not looked for a job in the past four weeks prior to the survey.)

COMMENT:  We're now a year out from the 2012 election.  While things can improve, they don't appear to be improving.  If the economy continues at its current level, Republicans will have an advantage, unless they throw it away, which they are skilled at doing. 

More important, Americans are hurting, and there seems to be a growing expectation that this pain will last for years, that we're heading for permanent economic weakness.  I guess hope and change just didn't work out.

October 20, 2011       Permalink 

BULLETIN – GADDAFI REPORTED DEAD – AT 8:54 A.M. ET:   We do not have absolute confirmation of this, but here is the report, from Fox:

SIRTE, Libya – Conflicting reports emerged on Thursday that Libyan strongman Muammar Qaddafi has been captured or killed.

"Qaddafi is dead. He is absolutely dead ... he was shot in both legs and in the head. The body will be arriving in Misrata soon," media spokesman Abdullah Berrassali told Sky News.

Libyan TV channel Libya lil Ahrar, meanwhile, said the ousted dictator was in custody.

The Transitional National Council's UK spokesman, Mahmoud Nacua, warned that there was "not enough information" to confirm Qaddafi's capture, and a former TNC spokesman in Britain, Guma al Gamati told Sky News that "this is not confirmed."

Sirte -- Qaddafi's hometown and the last bastion of his supporters -- was the last holdout against TNC forces. The town's capture, which both military officials and new regime political sources said was expected later Thursday, would pave the way for the TNC to officially take control of Libya and move its headquarters away from its Benghazi stronghold in the east to the capital, Tripoli.

COMMENT:  We'll wait and see.  Gaddafi's death (his name is spelled in different ways) would probably be a blessing, putting an end to the story, without turning the dictator into a martyr.

October 20, 2011       Permalink

THE REBIRTH OF RICK PERRY? – AT 8:22 A.M. ET:  That seems to be the way the Perry people are billing this week.  Perry reborn in debate.  Perry presenting his economic plans.  Perry the fighter.

Could it be true?  We'll have to wait for some solid polling, but Perry is at least fighting back from his rapid decline. 

LAS VEGAS — Texas Gov. Rick Perry followed up a feisty debate performance with a pledge Wednesday to fight for a flat tax and with another round of thinly disguised jabs at rival Mitt Romney — the man he sees as his chief obstacle to winning the GOP presidential nod next year.

Showing a bounce in his step, the three-term Texas governor jogged onto the stage at the Western Republican Leadership Conference and delivered a 15-minute speech vowing to roll out an economic plan next week that would scrap the current tax code and replace it with a flat tax.

And...

Mr. Perry also picked up where he left off in the testy debate the previous night, implicitly questioning Mr. Romney’s conservative credentials, as he worked to revive some of the ideological concerns that helped derail the former Massachusetts governor’s 2008 bid.

“A ‘change election’ requires a new direction and not more of the same — and I come by my conservatism very authentically, not by convenience,” Mr. Perry said, assuring the gathering of Western conservatives that he is not the establishment’s pick nor a flip-flopper on the issues that are important to them.

In a sign of the growing heat between the two contenders, the Romney camp struck back, releasing a one-minute “Ready To Lead?” Web video highlighting some of Mr. Perry’s worst moments in recent debates, where he stumbled over his words, meandered through a response to a question about the nation’s policy toward China and refused to offer details of his economic plan.

The man squeezed out here is Herman Cain, who went into Tuesday night's debate on a wave of rising popularity, but came out somewhat battered.  People still like him, and that's justified.  But his 9-9-9 tax reform plan is not holding up well to scrutiny.  And Cain has not helped himself with vague or snippy answers to questions about it.  He may become the Ross Perot of this campaign – lots of energy, few answers, although we have to admire the guy.

As for Perry, his bitter fight with Romney reminds us of Reagan's 11th Commandment:  "Thou shalt not speak ill of any fellow Republican."  Speaking ill has now become, in this campaign, the thing to do.

Is Perry capable of making a comeback?  Theoretically, yes.  But it must consist of much more than an attack on Mitt Romney.  The flat tax is an interesting idea, but hardly original.  No one is buzzing about it.  Perry will start rolling out other plans soon.

There won't be another Republican debate for a month, so Perry will have to depend on advertising and press reports.  The campaign can get vicious.   Primary voting is only a few months away.  I still think that Romney must be considered the frontrunner, but he's not inevitable. 

October 20, 2011       Permalink

AND SPEAKING OF THE MIDEAST – AT 8:02 A.M. ET:   The apparent capture of Muammar Gaddafi does nothing to minimize the threat from Iran.  And, indeed, coming on the news that Iran plotted to murder the Saudi ambassador to Washington on U.S. soil, with a possible substantial loss of American life, the U.S. is now concerned about further plots. 

(Reuters) - The United States believes Iran's shadowy Quds Force is becoming increasingly aggressive overseas and may be working on other international plots beyond the alleged plan to kill Saudi Arabia's ambassador to Washington, three U.S. officials told Reuters.

U.S. allegations last week of a foiled plot in Washington have escalated tensions between the United States and Iran. They have also renewed Washington's focus on the Quds Force, the covert operations arm of Iran's powerful Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps, which is believed to have sponsored attacks on U.S. targets in the Middle East -- but never before in the United States.

"They're being more aggressive ... not only in Iraq but worldwide," one senior U.S. official said in an interview. The official and others insisted on anonymity because they were not authorized to speak on the record and because of the sensitive nature of the matter.

U.S. officials have long charged that the Quds Force -- the Arabic word for Jerusalem -- has used proxies to attack U.S. troops in Iraq, Afghanistan and elsewhere.

The Quds Force, whose power within Iran is believed to be growing, is also active in Lebanon, the Gulf, Syria and elsewhere, officials said.

COMMENT:  Imagine what the Quds Force will be when Iran acquires nuclear weapons.  Of course, there are the usual suspects who play down the threat from Iran, just as there were "experts" before World War II, and fellow travelers, who played down the threats from both Germany and Japan.  But Iran's record is pretty clear.  It is currently killing Americans in Iraq, and we can only hope the administration doesn't melt away from vigilance.  At the same time, we note that nothing we've done so far has deterred Iran, and there are plenty of countries, especially in Europe, who see Iran as a trading partner, and tend to play down our concerns.

After all, what can little Holocaust deniers with crazy ideas do?

October 20, 2011        Permalink

BULLETIN – GADDAFI CAPTURED – AT 7:47 A.M. ET:  This has not been confirmed, but is being reported by several news agencies:

(Reuters) - Deposed Libyan leader Muammar Gaddafi was captured and wounded near his hometown of Sirte at dawn on Thursday as he tried to flee in a convoy which NATO warplanes attacked, National Transitional Council official Abdel Majid said on Thursday.

The senior NTC military official told Reuters by telephone that the head of Gaddafi's armed forces Abu Bakr Younus Jabr had been killed during the capture of the Libyan ex-leader.

COMMENT:  Sounds like a replay of the capture of Saddam Hussein in Iraq.  We wonder if all those worthies who criticized President Bush's actions in Iraq will now do a 180 and praise President Obama for doing pretty much the same thing in Libya, although, admittedly, with less of a U.S. force.  (Of course, Libya is a much less populous country.)

Is this good news?  Well, sure.  Gaddafi is a bad piece of work.  But the key question is:  What now?  Who succeeds him?  What alliances will the new government make?  Hillary Clinton was just in Libya shaking hands with the winners, but handshaking in the Arab world hasn't gotten us too far. 

Fasten your seatbelts.  It's going to be a bumpy year.  (What film am I almost quoting?)

October 20, 2011     Permalink

OCTOBER 19,  2011

SHORT TAKES ON THE DRIFTING WRECKAGE – AT 10:14 P.M. ET:

ETHICAL BREACH – It is a fundamental of journalism ethics that journalists not participate in politics.  Of course, that standard is breached all the time with biased reporting and news stories designed to advance a point of view.  Now National Public Radio is in the news once again for a breach.  It seems that one of its journalists, Lisa Simeone, is acting as spokeswoman for "Occupy D.C.," the Washington branch of the "occupy" movement.  The Daily Caller is on the story, but we no sign thus far that NPR will call Simeone on her violation of the rules.  After all, she's one of the good people.

LIVING STANDARDS DROP – The standard of living for Americans has dropped for a longer period and more sharply during the last three years than at any time since the U.S. Government began recording it 50 years ago.  Americans have, on average, $1,315 less in disposable income than they did when this economic downturn started.  The decline is especially squeezing the middle class, whose numbers continue to diminish.  And prices for necessities continue to rise, just as incomes remain stagnant at best.

UNDERSTANDABLE – The level of antidepressant use among Americans increased 40% in the last two decades.  Some 11% of Americans 12 and older now take antidepressant drugs, which are the most commonly used prescription drugs for those aged 18 to 44.  Women are 2.5 times more likely to take antidepressants as are men, which is entirely understandable when you look at some of the young men available to them.  The researchers, interestingly enough, found no association between income and antidepressant use.  But I'll bet the drugs that billionaires take come in finer bottles.

DISGRACEFUL – The capital city of the United States has become a haven for illegal immigrants, and is now, essentially, a "sanctuary city."  The mayor of Washington has signed an order instructing the police not to question anyone about immigration status, including those arrested, unless the alleged crime is related to immigration.  In effect, this means that federal immigration law will not be enforced in the city that symbolizes the nation. 

October 19, 2011       Permalink

WE'RE FOLLOWING, WE'RE FOLLOWING – AT 8:49 A.M. ET:  One of the first rules of journalism is, "Follow the money."  Too many journalists ignore it.  We don't.  Let's follow some money today.  From Human Events: 

Things are tough all over… except for Washington, D.C. By vacuuming four trillion dollars out of the private economy, President Obama has brought a deficit-fueled boom to the seat of the national bureaucracy he loves. Bloomberg News does the honors as Silicon Valley is dethroned, and America’s new richest city is crowned:

Federal employees whose compensation averages more than $126,000 and the nation’s greatest concentration of lawyers helped Washington edge out San Jose as the wealthiest U.S. metropolitan area, government data show.

The U.S. capital has swapped top spots with Silicon Valley, according to recent Census Bureau figures, with the typical household in the Washington metro area earning $84,523 last year. The national median income for 2010 was $50,046.

This has not escaped the notice of those who concern themselves with income disparity, and they’re feeling a bit queasy about it:

The figures demonstrate how the nation’s political and financial classes are prospering as the economy struggles with unemployment above 9 percent and thousands of Americans protest in the streets against income disparity, said Kevin Zeese, director of Prosperity Agenda, a Baltimore-based advocacy group trying to narrow the divide between rich and poor.

“There’s a gap that’s isolating Washington from the reality of the rest of the country,” Zeese said. “They just get more and more out of touch.”

And...

There is no more concise, and devastating, symbol of Obama’s failure than watching Washington, D.C. become the richest city in the nation, while Gross Domestic Product flounders and 9% unemployment drags on for years. Worst of all, whoever gets the job of cleaning up this mess will be accused of wanting to make unemployment worse, when they start sending those surplus $126,000 bureaucrats home.

COMMENT:  Reminds me a bit of the old Soviet Union, where everyone was equal, but government bureaucrats were more equal than anyone. 

I've never disparaged government employees, but it's become common for a government worker to be paid more than his or her civilian counterpart.   And yet it's the civilian economy that will determine our economic future.

The idea that government city is the richest city in America tell us where we're going.  We'd better stop going there.  Right now.

October 19, 2011       Permalink

QUOTE OF THE DAY – AT 8:29 A.M. ET:  It comes from Nile Gardiner, one of Britain's sharpest observers of American politics.  He discusses Obama's first thousand days in The Telegraph:

If recent polls are any indication, it is doubtful that President Obama will enjoy another 1,000 days in the White House. And looking at his track record over the course of his first 33 months in office, it is not hard to see why. It is hard to think of a presidency in modern times that has done more to damage the United States both at home and abroad than the current one, with the possible exception of Jimmy Carter’s. Like his Democratic predecessor in the 1970’s, Barack Obama has left the world’s dominant superpower on its knees, with faith in US leadership now being questioned across the globe...

...Despite two high-profile successes in taking out al-Qaeda leaders Osama bin Laden and more recently Anwar al-Awlaki (both upon the foundations of President Bush’s war on terror), US foreign policy under Obama has been a confusing mess. The shameless appeasement of Iran has allowed the rogue state to advance perilously close to nuclear weapons capability, while the naïve “reset” approach towards Russia has only encouraged a more aggressive and assertive Moscow. At the same time, traditional alliances with Great Britain and Israel have been downgraded, and key allies in eastern and central Europe thrown under the bus to feed the Russian bear. While America’s defences have grown weaker, China’s military might has grown significantly stronger, as have the offensive capabilities of hostile regimes in both Asia and Latin America, including Hugo Chavez’s Venezuela.

COMMENT:  That is a powerful and accurate indictment.  I'm troubled by the fact that foreign policy has gotten such short shrift in the Republican debates thus far.  True, the economy will dominate the campaign, but foreign policy will be critical to this country's survival.

As Gardiner does, we give Obama credit for pursuing the war on terror, essentially following George Bush's script.  But his overall foreign policy is a Jimmy Carter whipped-cream delight.  Especially worrying is Obama's weakness on Iran, where he has had no success at all.  That chicken will come home to roost should Obama win a second term.  As Sinatra might have put it, leave us pray it don't happen.

October 19, 2011        Permalink

INCREDIBLE, AND DISTURBING – AT 7:56 A.M. ET:   We hear stories every day of young people getting out of college or graduate school, burdened by debts that will last a lifetime.  This gives us some example of how bad things are.  From The Politico:

Giving validation to Occupy Wall Street protests over the increasing burdens of student debt, a new report indicates that the amount of total amount of outstanding student loans will exceed $1 trillion for the first time ever this year.

In addition, the amount of student loans taken out last year was greater than $100 billion, another new record, according to USA Today, citing the Federal Reserve Bank of New York.

The $1 trillion of outstanding loans means that Americans now owe more on student loans than on their credit cards. While students have been racking up educational loans, American consumers have been paying down credit cards and home loans.

The average full-time undergraduate student borrowed $4,963 in 2010, up 63 percent from a decade earlier, even after adjusting for inflation, the report says.

Meanwhile, with a greater loan burden, the percentage of borrowers that defaulted on their student debts also rose - from 6.7 percent in 2007 to 8.8 percent in 2009.

COMMENT:  It's very easy to blame the kids who assume these debts, but it's a bit unfair.  Most colleges in America don't have the endowments of the Ivy League, and can't give the lavish scholarships that rich schools can.  So, to get a college education, kids have to borrow.  They're optimistic.  They're idealistic.  They want to be prepared for the future.  So they borrow.

Maybe the staggering numbers will prompt us finally to examine education closely, starting with a cold look at the value of college.  Should most kids go to college?  Are most colleges delivering an education worth the loans?  Why does the bachelor's degree have to require four years?  Wouldn't three years and a summer, if correctly structured, cut down dramatically on debt?  Who is teaching our students?  What are they teaching? 

And why has the cost of a college education risen far more than the rate of inflation? 

We have a young generation living in debt.  And yet, we still treat colleges like sacred cows, and they expect to be treated that way.  People who ask too many questions are denounced as anti-intellectual, or assaulting academic freedom, or McCarthyites.  At the same time, students must be for whole departments that are set up to appease this group or another, or to satisfy some political requirement.

Let the market start working in education.  Let's ask some questions. 

October 19, 2011        Permalink

THE DEBATE – AT 7:38 A.M. ET:  We've now had a chance to reflect on last night's profound exchange of ideas and philosophy among the Republican candidates.  Several impressions remain strong:

The loser:  It has to be Herman Cain.  He came in riding a head of steam, with poll numbers rising rapidly.   He knew he would thus get concentrated fire, and he didn't prepare for it.  Every other Republican attacked his 9-9-9 plan, and left it a shambles.  Cain could not defend it in detail.  When Mitt Romney asked if the 9% national sales tax proposed in the plan would be on top of the sales taxes already charged in most states, Cain simply replied that Romney was mixing apples and oranges.  A foolish reply to a very good question.

One independent analysis after another comes to the conclusion that Cain's plan would result in a tax increase for most Americans, which is clearly not acceptable.  Cain is a terrific guy, with a wonderful personality.  But I expect to see him decline after last night's performance.

The maybe:  Rick Perry.  He came alive last night and, for the first time, put some fight into his debating.  But, in doing so, he revealed a dark, vicious side.  His out-of-the-blue attack on Mitt Romney for allegedly hiring an illegal alien was over the top, unproved, and drew boos from the audience.  But at least he's fighting, and he has a large war chest.  He's back in the race, if he can control his lesser instincts.

The fascinating footnote.  People keep making the point that Newt Gingrich is the smartest, best informed candidate up there, and it's true.  He says more things worth hearing than any other participant.   He won't get the nomination, but he's the intellectual leader of the GOP.

The maybe winner:  Mitt Romney.  It wasn't a great performance, but he still comes off as presidential, informed, and even-tempered.  He will probably win the nomination, if only by default.  How will he do in the general?  Impossible to predict.  Voters don't love him, but they may just feel he's more solid and better prepared than Obama.

October 19, 2011     Permalink