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OCTOBER 2,  2011

SHORT TAKES ON THE DRIFTING WRECKAGE – AT 11:15 P.M. ET:

NEW NPR HEAD – Gary Knell, who has headed the organization that produces "Sesame Street," has been named new chief of National Public Radio.  If this means that Big Bird will be in charge of political programming, with Bert and Ernie handling foreign policy, I'd be delighted, as it would mark a major improvement over what goes out over NPR today.

SYRIAN OPPOSITION TRIES TO UNITE – While our eyes are diverted, the violence in Syria continues, as it has for six months.  President Assad isn't budging.  Now the Syrian dissidents have formed a group to try to unite their efforts.  The Syrian National Council will try to form a common front against the brutal regime.  However, as is often the case in the Mideast, we really don't know what the Council stands for, and who has the most power.  Christians in Syria actually fear the possible fall of the regime because of the chance that an Islamic government will take over.  Going from bad to worse in that region is common.

CAIN TAKES ON CHRISTIE – Herman Cain, who is acting like a major candidate these days after showing gains in the polls, is taking shots at Chris Christie even before Christie enters the race.  Cain charges that Christie is too liberal on immigration, assault weapons, gay marriage, and global warming, and that conservatives, once they know Christie's positions, will decline to support him.  Cain may well be right.  Christie is governor of a predominantly Democratic state and, like Rudy Giuliani in New York, takes moderate positions on many issues, reflecting his constituency.  Conservatives may well reject him.  On the other hand, Christie is a tough budget cutter and can rhetorically take on Barack Obama.  Let's see if Christie even jumps in, which might happen this week.

PERRY UNDER THE GUN – Rick Perry is facing new heat after an "investigative" report by the Washington Post found that a hunting campground the Perry family once leased had been known by a racially charged term.  This is modern-day McCarthyism, attempting to link the Texas governor to racism.  Sadly, Herman Cain has joined in the attack.  Perry appointed an African-American as chief justice of Texas's highest court, hardly the act of a racist.  Perry has not done well in debates thus far, but many of the attacks on him appear, to this observer, to be unfair and over the top, including this one. 

October 2, 2011      Permalink

ENERGY INDEPENDENCE – AT 10:10 A.M. ET:  It's one of those catch phrases of American politics.  Americans need to be "energy independent."  That means we don't want to depend on Saudi kings and Arab politicians for our oil supplies.

How do we achieve it?  Some say "green energy."  That's ridiculous.  Green energy sources are in their early stages of development, and many ideas will fail.  But we know that petroleum works, that it can be extracted in a clean manner, and that it makes the economy run.  And we have domestic oil, as an excellent piece in The Wall Street Journal points out.  North Dakota, as they say, can become Saudi Arabia:

Harold Hamm, the Oklahoma-based founder and CEO of Continental Resources, the 14th-largest oil company in America, is a man who thinks big. He came to Washington last month to spread a needed message of economic optimism: With the right set of national energy policies, the United States could be "completely energy independent by the end of the decade. We can be the Saudi Arabia of oil and natural gas in the 21st century."

"President Obama is riding the wrong horse on energy," he adds. We can't come anywhere near the scale of energy production to achieve energy independence by pouring tax dollars into "green energy" sources like wind and solar, he argues. It has to come from oil and gas.

You'd expect an oilman to make the "drill, baby, drill" pitch. But since 2005 America truly has been in the midst of a revolution in oil and natural gas, which is the nation's fastest-growing manufacturing sector. No one is more responsible for that resurgence than Mr. Hamm. He was the original discoverer of the gigantic and prolific Bakken oil fields of Montana and North Dakota that have already helped move the U.S. into third place among world oil producers.

How much oil does Bakken have? The official estimate of the U.S. Geological Survey a few years ago was between four and five billion barrels. Mr. Hamm disagrees: "No way. We estimate that the entire field, fully developed, in Bakken is 24 billion barrels."

If he's right, that'll double America's proven oil reserves. "Bakken is almost twice as big as the oil reserve in Prudhoe Bay, Alaska," he continues. According to Department of Energy data, North Dakota is on pace to surpass California in oil production in the next few years. Mr. Hamm explains over lunch in Washington, D.C., that the more his company drills, the more oil it finds. Continental Resources has seen its "proved reserves" of oil and natural gas (mostly in North Dakota) skyrocket to 421 million barrels this summer from 118 million barrels in 2006.

COMMENT:  Read the whole piece.  We can indeed be energy independent...if we don't let ideology get in the way.  Of course we should develop new types of energy, but, in the meantime, it's important to exploit the advantages we have, and that means petroleum.

October 2, 2011       Permalink

A GROWING MOVEMENT? – AT 9:40 A.M. ET:  We've seen some pretty spectacular mass movements this year – from the Arab spring in the Mideast (however it turns out), to riots in Britain.  Now we have something starting here, and it is spreading beyond New York, where it has its roots.  From Fox:

New York City police say about 700 protesters have been arrested after they swarmed the Brooklyn Bridge and shut down a lane of traffic for several hours.

The group Occupy Wall Street has been camped out in a plaza in Manhattan's Financial District for nearly two weeks staging various marches, and had orchestrated an impromptu trek to Brooklyn on Saturday evening. They walked in thick rows on the sidewalk up to the bridge, where some demonstrators spilled onto the roadway after being told to stay on the pedestrian pathway, police said. Most of those arrested face disorderly conduct charges, while others were accused of resisting arrest.

Some protesters sat on the roadway, while others chanted and yelled at the police from the pedestrian walkaway above. Police used orange netting to stop the group on the roadway from going further down the bridge, which is under construction.

Some of the protesters said they were lured onto the roadway by police, or they didn't hear the calls from authorities to head to the pedestrian walkway. Police said no one was tricked into being arrested, and those who were in the back of the group were allowed to leave.

"Multiple warnings by police were given to protesters to stay on the pedestrian walkway and that if they took roadway they would be arrested," said Paul Browne, the chief spokesman of the New York Police Department.

COMMENT:  I wouldn't underestimate this.  Many have wondered, in these tough economic times, where the mass demonstrations have been.  The usual answer is that the election of Barack Obama filled the left with such enthusiasm that they depended on him.  Now that he's not the hero he was a few years ago, and now that the economy is tanking again, the pressure to form "mass movements" may be turned on.  When they arrest 700 people in New York, that's a big deal. 

Of course, these people are classic left-wing protesters.  They know what they're against ("Wall Street"), but have no idea what they're for.  And I suspect that, for many of them, it's more a social than a political occasion.  Let's protest Wall Street and then have pizza. 

But remember the election year of 1968, with mass demonstrations and organized chaos at the Democratic National Convention in Chicago.  This can happen again, to both parties, and we can have major street disruptions.  Usually, that arouses public outrage and benefits the more conservative party.  But with the economy the way it is...I don't know.  All bets are off.

We're in a visual age.  Major demonstrations against corporate power may just resonate, when they're flashed on TV screens around the country.  We'll be following this movement. 

October 2, 2011      Permalink 

OBAMA'S ACE? – AT 9:14 A.M. ET:  There's growing speculation that Obama's ace in the hole in 2012 will be...national security. 

As they say, who woulda thunk it?  Here's a left-wing guy with a Muslim middle name and some strange associations in Chicago, and yet, on national security – as opposed to overall foreign policy – he seems to be following the Bush example, and expanding on it.  Veteran Mideast affairs observer Aaron David Miller, in The Politico, says:

Republican attacks on President Obama might have carried much more weight 20 plus months ago. They don't now. The president has essentially morphed into a much less reckless and ideological version of Bush 43. His policies on Iraq, Afghanistan, Gitmo, Iran; even Patriot Act issues, resemble much more the pragmatic George W. Bush of 2007/2008 than the earlier lone ranger version.

The fact is the president is far less exposed on national security issues than he is on economic ones. If he keeps his head on Israel and keeps whacking bad guys in Yemen, Pakistan, and Afghanistan, he should have no trouble dealing with charges from credible Republican opponents. Even on Iraq and Afghanistan, where Obama's standard of victory is not "can we win" but "when can we leave" he'll be able to hold his own with either Romney or Perry. Their policies wouldn't have been much different.

COMMENT:  I still don't trust Obama on foreign policy.  But on basic national security issues, especially the pursuit of terrorists, he comes away pretty well.  That doesn't mean that will continue in a second term, when, if reelected, he won't have the political constraints of a man who needs to run again. 

Remember, Obama took office and presided over a new administration that referred to terrorism as "man-made disasters" and to the war on terrorism as "overseas contingency operations."  He has evolved, but I don't trust him enough to give  him a second term, despite victories against terrorists.   He is weak on Iran and North Korea, and his overall foreign policy, administered by the overrated Hillary Clinton, is still hesitant and confused.

But when Obama's reelection ads flash the photos of the major terrorists taken out on Obama's watch, especially Osama bin Laden, it will have an impact.

October 2, 2011     Permalink

OCTOBER 1,  2011

SHORT TAKES ON THE DRIFTING WRECKAGE – AT 8:21 P.M. ET:

THE LIES KEEP COMING – We've reported on the worldwide campaign to prevent the execution of a Christian pastor in Iran, Youcef Nadarkhani, who was sentenced to death for refusing to renounce his Christian beliefs.  Now the mullah regime is claiming that the pastor is guilty of rape and extortion, even though no such charges appear in the trial documents.  It appears the government is simply trying to justify an execution that can take place in a matter of days.

OUR HEART BREAKS – Former President Bill Clinton, who, as we've reported here, is getting increasingly bizarre in his public statements, now claims that he hasn't received enough credit for the work he did as president.  Soon he'll ask that he be given a memorial in Washington, alongside Lincoln's.  Clinton has become a major international figure, and has made millions, in the years since leaving the White House.  You'd think that an impeached president would show a bit of humility, but humility has never been his thing.  The "international community," which never seems bothered by little things like an officeholder's personal morality, loves him. 

CUOMO FOR PRESIDENT?  – A lot of political eyes are on Governor Andrew Cuomo of New York, son of former Governor Mario Cuomo.  Although a liberal Democrat by background, Cuomo is governing from the center, winning praise from both the center left and the center right – in other words the people who decide elections, not street demonstrations.  In his latest move, Cuomo has rejected a demand that New York's Medicaid program pay for sex change surgery.  A typical liberal would have approved it in a heartbeat.  There is widespread talk that Cuomo has his eye on a 2016 run for the White House, and I wouldn't be surprised.  In liberal New York, he's succeeding as a centrist.

ON ALERT – Washington is putting Americans all over the world on alert for possible retaliation for the killing of Al Qaeda bigwig Anwar al-Awlaki in Yemen, although terrorism experts say this is fairly standard procedure after a major anti-terror success.  It's been pointed out that there was no large act of retaliation, at least so far, for the killing of Osama bin Laden.  The New York Police Department is on high alert, especially for home-grown terrorists.  al-Awlaki was born in the United States and had a strong following here among those so inclined.

October 1, 2011     Permalink

GRIM ECONOMIC FORECAST – AT 11:28 A.M. ET:  How long have we been told by the Obamans that we're in a recovery?  I haven't noticed said recovery.  Have you?  Now the people who assess risks for banks are weighing in, and they don't paint a pretty picture.  From CNBC: 

Home prices are unlikely to recover before 2020 and mortgage defaults will persist for years, says a survey of bank risk managers out Friday.

The survey conducted by the Professional Risk Managers’ International Association for FICO, found that 49 percent of respondents do not expect housing prices to rise back to 2007 levels for another nine years. Only 21 percent of respondents said they would.

The findings, which authors called “a decidedly pessimistic outlook”, are a sharp reversal from cautious optimism the survey respondents expressed late last year and in early 2011.

In addition, 73 percent of surveyed bankers say they expect mortgage defaults to remain elevated for at least another five years. And 46 percent believe mortgage delinquencies will increase over the next six months.

And...

A large number of respondents says they also expect to see an uptick in delinquencies on auto loans, credit cards and student loans.

Small businesses are expected to continue face a challenging credit environment. More than one-third of respondents forecast an increase in delinquencies on small business loans.

Bankers also appear to be pessimistic about recovery in consumer spending, with 64 percent of respondents expecting credit card usage to remain below pre-recession levels for at least five more years.

Half of the respondents expect credit card balances to increase over the next six months, due to higher spending by some households and smaller monthly payments by others.

COMMENT:  Ah, that old Democratic theme song, "Happy Days Are Here Again."  Not playing it too much these days. 

This survey confirms the views of many economic observers who believe that our problems are long term, and not given to quick fixes.  Both parties are going to take hits on the economy.  The better party will be the one with the better plan.

October 1, 2011       Permalink

FUTURE OF AL QAEDA – AT 10:53 A.M. ET:  We've taken out two major Al Qaeda figures, to Ron Paul's great regret, in recent months.  Osama bin Laden sleeps with the fishes.  Anwar al-Awlaki is apparently disassembled somewhere in a Yemeni desert, having been inconvenienced by an American drone.

But where does this leave Al Qaeda?  Experienced terrorism expert Peter Brooke, of the Heritage Foundation, has a good analysis:

First, Awlaki’s death deprives AQAP -- and al Qaeda globally -- of one of the most (if not the most) inspirational figures and talented operational commanders in its ranks, as evidenced by his work in just the last few years.

Some analysts recently came to see him as being as important to al Qaeda as Osama bin Laden himself, and actually thought he might come to lead the terror group after bin Laden bit the dust in May.

Next, al Qaeda has been stripped of one of its most powerful propagandists, who was especially skilled in so-called “digital jihad,” with a troubling ability to reach out to and recruit both English and Arabic speakers over the Internet. (Inspire’s editor was killed in the same drone attack that got Awlaki.)

So, for the moment, it’s likely to be harder, but not impossible, for al Qaeda to target future foot soldiers over the Web, and, hopefully, we’ll see Inspire find its way to the dustbin of history.

Moreover, Awlaki’s termination also lets terrorist and terrorist wannabes know that justice will find you if you start, or continue down, this bloody road, taking the lives of innocent people in your quest for power.

Finally, it’s possible that with Awlaki gone AQAP will stop targeting the West, specifically the United States. It may turn to toppling the Yemeni and Saudi governments, which has always been its top prize.

But all of this is in some ways uncertain. After all, al Qaeda didn’t throw up its hands and surrender after we offed Osama in May. It appointed a new leader in the likes of Ayman al Zawahiri, the Egyptian who had long served as bin Laden’s deputy.

Similarly, it’s likely Awlaki will be replaced in the AQAP lineup by someone who’ll be anxious to prove he’s as skilled and as capable as his predecessor was in carrying out al Qaeda’s odious objectives.

There will also likely be a desire to seek revenge for the killing of Awlaki, perhaps meaning more violence directed at us. The group will certainly want to show prospective recruits and funders that it’s still worthy of the al Qaeda brand name. It still has the resources: AQAP has seized control of territory in Yemen from which it can still plan, train and operate.

And we shouldn’t forget there’s still plenty of al Qaeda out there, including al Qaeda in Iraq, al Shabab (Somalia), al Qaeda in the Maghreb (North Africa) and al Qaeda Central (Pakistan) -- not to mention its allies like the Taliban and Haqqani network in Afghanistan.

Bottom line: We’re better off now that Awlaki is gone, but the threat from al Qaeda and its affiliates isn’t. A sigh of relief -- like that after the taking of bin Laden -- is a reasonable response, but embracing complacency isn’t.

COMMENT:  Well said.  In World War II the United States killed Japan's most gifted naval leader, Isoroku Yamamoto, who'd planned the attack on Pearl Harbor, but Japan fought on bitterly for another two years.  One of Nazi Germany's most accomplished generals, Irwin Rommel, was forced to commit suicide in late 1944, but Germany fought on, inflicting enormous casualties for many months. 

There is an old French saying, wrongly attributed to DeGaulle, that the graveyards of the world are filled with indispensable men.  We should always remember that.   We'll meet Al Qaeda again.

October 1, 2011       Permalink

GOP LEADS IN COMPETENCE POLL – AT 10:24 A.M. ET:  While these polls do not necessarily predict winners on election day, they do give us a snapshot of how people are thinking.  Right now they're thinking that the Republicans are just more competent than the Dems.  From The Hill:

More Americans believe that Republicans can do a better job on both the economy and national security, a poll released Friday showed.

Asked which party is best able to keep the United States prosperous, 48 percent chose the GOP while 39 percent chose Democrats. The numbers were similar on protecting the nation from external threats: Forty-nine percent favor Republicans versus 38 percent for Democrats, according to the Gallup poll.

The party that controls the White House historically takes a major hit in the polls, a political rendering of “the grass is always greener.” But the lack of faith in Democrats’ abilities bodes poorly for the party in 2012 as it tries to reelect President Obama, wrest back control of the House and keep the GOP from overtaking the Senate.
Americans surveyed also said they saw the GOP as better able to deal with whatever problem they identified as the most important.

COMMENT:  As the story notes, the party controlling the White House often slips in competence polls, as problems build up.  Also, the Republican Party, as a party, doesn't rank particularly well in polls.  There is a major battle ahead for actual votes on election day.

October 1, 2011     Permalink