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NOVEMBER 11,  2011

SHORT TAKES ON THE DRIFTING WRECKAGE – AT 8:12 P.M. ET:

NEWT SHOOTS – The candidate showing the greatest rise in the polls among GOP primary voters is Newt Gingrich.  A new CBS poll has Cain at 18% and Romney and Gingrich tied at 15% each.  Rick Perry is way behind at 8%.  We should point out that different polls at this point in the campaign vary rather widely, although Newt's surge is being picked up by all the ones we've seen.  The question is whether Gingrich, who carries some political and personal baggage, has the base of support within the Republican Party, and among voters generally, to go much further.  Now that he's rising, you may be sure the mainstream media is preparing hit pieces on him.  Look for those within a week.

BLOWBACK – Follow-up to our earlier post about the disgraceful, politically motivated decision by President Obama to put off until after the election a decision on whether to permit the Keystone XL pipeline from Canada to U.S. Gulf ports to be built.  Canadian sources cited by the Toronto Globe & Mail say the delay may kill the pipeline altogether, robbing the U.S. of a vital oil pipeline and safe, secure supplies from our closest friend.   And who is likely to benefit?  Why, it's China, which will be happy to buy all the oil that we cannot import because our pipeline capacity is already filled.  Smart move, Barack.

UNBELIEVABLE – Families suing for the right to have their children wear the American flag in school have lost their case in a federal district court.  The California children were told that they couldn't wear clothing bearing the flag on Cinco de Mayo, a Mexican holiday, because it might offend Mexican immigrants and cause violence.  The court found the school's position reasonable.  We find it appalling.  The perpetrators of violence, if any, should be punished, not students wearing the flag of their country.  Rulings like this award the playing field to the violent, not to the innocent.

BUS TARGETS – Fox News reports warnings by the federal governments that terror groups are targeting buses more than any other form of surface transportation.  This is entirely logical, and consistent with the experience of countries like Israel, which has seen a number of bus attacks.  Buses are very soft targets.  Terror groups are said to be trying to recruit employees of bus lines.  A bus attack includes placing explosives on or under buses, or simply ramming a bus with another vehicle.  A hijacked bus could be used in an attack on a crowd or used to ram a building.

November 11, 2011      Permalink

PENN STATE, AND ELSEWHERE – AT 4:29 P.M. ET:  I haven't commented in any detail on the Penn State scandal, but I'm now convinced, based on a gathering of available facts, that it's major and that, clearly, Penn State officials never took it seriously enough.

Sexual abuse of young people is a terrible crime, whether it involves an athletic coach, a religious institution, a political figure, or anyone else.  We stress that no one has thus far been convicted of anything, and that the presumption of innocence must prevail in the courtroom.  We have the full right to make our own individual judgments based on the facts known, since we, as observers, do not have the power to put anyone in prison.

The most famous figure to be affected by the scandal is, of course, Penn State's legendary football coach, Joe Paterno, who has now been forced out after more than four decades.  Pundits are already at work deriving great meaning from Paterno's fall.  He isn't charged with a crime right now, but he is charged, in the court of public opinion, with failing to act with sufficient seriousness when presented with evidence that a subordinate of his was engaging in outrageously improper conduct involving young boys.

It appears that the exits of both Coach Paterno and Penn State's president, ordered by the board of trustees, are appropriate, and overdue.  Neither appears to have practiced the due diligence required of his position.

But I have a bit of a problem with this episode:  Why is it that the only time we get real digging into the affairs of a university is when athletic programs are involved?  Reporters love to take digs at athletes, coaches, and those supporting the "program."  And yet our universities are plagued with problems involving inflated costs, huge tuition bills that have grown far beyond the rate of inflation, whole academic departments established for political reasons or to satisfy protesting groups, terrible bias, low standards, and disciplinary rules involving speech codes and kangaroo courts that are an insult to the concept of a free society. 

And yet, where is the reporting?  We too often have a press whose leaders seem more interested in receiving honorary degrees than in reporting on the institutions that grant them, institutions that often get vast sums in federal and state aid. 

We've referred to this before:  At Duke University, a competitive school of substantial prestige, three lacrosse players were thrown to the legal wolves based on flimsy charges of sexual assault by a woman with a very dubious past.  A corrupt district attorney, seeking votes in an upcoming election, started to prosecute them, even though evidence presented the day after the charges were announced pointed clearly to the innocence of at least one of accused.  A group of Duke faculty members, known thereafter as the Duke 88, signed a petition all but condemning these boys to a legal lynching.

Later, we learned that the charges were false, the prosecutor dishonest.  The mature, reasoned actions of the North Carolina bar resulted in the offending district attorney, Michael Nifong, being removed from office and disbarred.  But what happened to the grossly irresponsible 88 faculty members?  Nothing.  Not even an apology.  Not even a reprimand by the faculty senate or the board of trustees.  Just as awful, not even condemnation by what should have been a vigilant press.  Indeed, some of the more prominent members of the Duke 88 were offered even higher academic positions at other universities.   When the innocent players were invited back to Duke, one faculty radical resigned from all her committee assignments within the university to protest the fact that innocent boys were offered reinstatement.  No press condemnation.

Our colleges and universities need a great deal of examination.  The Penn State case is a particularly outrageous example of indifference to a serious wrong.  But there are many, many other areas that go unexplored, and that is a media failure of major proportions.

November 11, 2011     Permalink

IRAN CRISIS – AT 10:24 A.M. ET:  And it is a real crisis.  The UN report this week that Iran is likely developing nuclear weapons has been met with much handwringing and little prospect of real action.

Indeed, the American reaction has been one of the most disappointing.  While the administration talks tough about Iran, it actually does little.  Even the liberal Washington Post is taking Obama to task for his ineffectual Iran policy and demanding stronger action.  Its editorial is entitled, "Running out of time to stop Iran's nuclear program":

...there is time, but the Obama administration and other Western governments must recognize that the sanctions they have so far put in place, and covert operations aimed at sabotaging Iranian centrifuges and killing scientists, have not succeeded in changing the regime’s intentions or stopping its work. The IAEA reports that uranium enrichment continues at a steady pace — 4.9 tons of low-enriched material have been produced, enough for four bombs with further processing. Just as disturbing: Iran continues to install centrifuges in a new underground facility and says it will step up production of higher-enriched uranium, which could be quickly converted to bomb-grade material.

The Obama administration has been saying since last month, when it revealed an Iranian plot to murder the Saudi ambassador to the United States, that it intended to press for tougher sanctions. But in briefing reporters this week, officials appeared to back away from measures that would have real impact — such as a Treasury ban on transactions with Iran’s central bank. Though that step has strong support in Congress, the administration is wary that, by effectively shutting down Iran’s oil exports, it would provoke a spike in energy prices that would damage the fragile global economy.

That is a legitimate concern. But President Obama has said repeatedly that Iran’s acquisition of a nuclear weapon is unacceptable — and the IAEA report makes clear the danger is growing, not diminishing. If Iran is to be stopped without the use of military force, the president, and the country, should be willing to bear some economic pain. The alternative — allowing Tehran to go forward — would be far more costly.

COMMENT:  Very well put, proving once again that the Washington Post has the most thoughtful editorial page of any generally liberal paper.  Compare please, if you can stand it, to the wreckage at The New York Times.

The Post argues that military force should be a last resort, and it is correct.  But it also notes the refusal of the Obama White House to impose truly painful sanctions on Iran, which makes the need for military force all the more likely.

And of course the Israelis, looking at Washington's confusion, may eventually feel that they have no choice other than to attack, to do as much damage to the Iranian nuclear program as possible.  Because that program is being relocated in underground bunkers, the Israeli decision is likely to come sooner, rather than later.

November 11, 2011       Permalink

SNIPPET OF THE DAY – AT 9:41 A.M. ET:

NOVEMBER 7--Convinced that her 88-year-old husband was having an affair with her hairdresser, a Missouri woman, 87, shot her spouse in the arm with his own gun, police report.  According to a Springfield Police Department probable cause statement, Peter Desjardins told cops that his wife, Dorothy, told him Saturday evening that the woman who does her hair had claimed to be having an affair with him. He denied the allegation and told his wife that the only time he saw the hairdresser was during her beauty appointments.

We are awaiting the arrival of Gloria Allred, who will explain that Mrs. Desjardins is particularly sensitive, having once been harassed by Herman Cain.

FRANCE, TOO? – AT 9:20 A.M. ET:  The European economic crisis seems neverending.   Greece is still on the edge.  So is Italy.  And now we are warned that France may soon be in serious trouble.  The warning comes from Gordon Brown, Britain's former prime minister, whose specialty is finance.  From London's Telegraph:

France risks becoming the next victim of the sovereign-debt crisis “in the coming weeks”, Gordon Brown, the former prime minister, has warned.

Mr Brown’s prediction came as the difference between French borrowing costs and those of Germany hit record levels.

EU leaders urged France to draw up further austerity measures to meet its deficit reduction targets, amid fears the eurozone’s second biggest economy could crumble if Italy’s debt crisis spirals out of control. Mr Brown, speaking in Moscow, said: “France is in danger of being picked off by the markets in the coming weeks and months.”

He urged Nicolas Sarkozy, the French president and current G20 chairman, to draw up a “global growth agreement” with major powers such as China.

Such a deal could help to support the EU, whose bail-out mechanisms are not big enough to prop up a major nation.

COMMENT:  The European crisis is roiling markets here, and can have a devastating effect on American exports to Europe if it gets worse.  When you talk about the possibility of an economy the size of France's "crumbling" you are talking about catastrophic economic news.  If it affects employment here, it affects the 2012 election.

November 11, 2011        Permalink

AN ABSOLUTE DISGRACE – AT 8:44 A.M. ET:  On a day when we celebrate heroism and sacrifice, the Obama administration provides us an example of utter political cowardice and irresponsibility.  From the Washington Post:

The Obama administration will delay action on a controversial cross-country oil pipeline in order to assess a shift in its route, officials announced Thursday, effectively putting off a politically vexing decision until after next year’s election.

The move is the latest twist in a more-than-three-year review process that has evolved from a fairly routine decision within the federal bureaucracy to a very public debate over national energy policy. It pitted environmental activists and an array of citizens along the pipeline’s proposed route against business groups, oil companies and unions whose members would be employed as part of the $7 billion project.

Officials at the State Department, which oversees the permitting process, had once promised a decision on the proposal by Alberta-based TransCanada by year’s end. But they said Thursday that they had to extend their review of the 1,700-mile pipeline to address Nebraskans’ objections to building across the state’s sensitive Sandhills region. That area provides habitat for imperiled wildlife and covers the Ogallala Aquifer, a critical source of drinking and irrigation water for state residents.

COMMENT:  Oh, come on.  We all know what this is about.  The pipeline, known as Keystone XL, and critically needed by the United States, pits two parts of Obama's base against each other – labor unions on one side, radical environmentalists on the other.

We are going to be dependent on petroleum for decades, possibly generations.  Many of the "green energy" projects will not pan out, or will take far longer to develop than advocates tell us.  The pipeline from Canada to Gulf Coast refineries will make our energy production more efficient, and less dependent on undependable foreign sources.

There was plenty of time to assess the routing and other factors.  But the administration simply wants to avoid a decision before the election, knowing that one of its key constituent groups will be angered.  I guess this is another example of "change we can believe in."  The delay is shameful, but is in keeping with this administration's practice of running a perpetual political campaign. 

The delay will hurt the nation.  But how could that possibly compare with something that hurts the Obamans.

November 11, 2011       Permalink

THE DAY – AT 8:14 A.M. ET:  It is Veterans Day, and we cite an appropriate quote from Leon Kass, whom I knew as an undergraduate at The University of Chicago.  He went on to become a physician, a scholar, and one of the few conservatives who survived the academic gauntlet during the last generation.  He writes, in Weekly Standard:

...we should revisit a remarkable Veterans Day speech, delivered last year, by Marine Lieutenant General John F. Kelly to the Semper Fi Society of St. Louis:

"Those with less of a sense of service to the nation never understand it when men and women of character step forward to look danger and adversity straight in the eye, refusing to blink, or give ground, even to their own deaths. The protected can’t begin to understand the price paid so they and their families can sleep safe and free at night. No, they are not victims, but are warriors, your warriors, and warriors are never victims, regardless of how and where they fall. Death, or fear of death, has no power over them. Their paths are paved by sacrifice, sacrifices they gladly make for you."

In these important respects at least, these warrior men and women are our superiors. We can honor them properly only by recognizing that fact and by not flattening or disguising their excellence in order to feel better about ourselves.

COMMENT:  Wonderfully stated.  I've always believed that many of the attacks on the military that come from the academic world are based on an unstated jealousy of the soldier's bravery and character.  But the citizens of the country understand what our military does for us, and, I believe, many students understand, despite the efforts of fashionably leftist academics.

A day to honor those who serve, and have served.

November 11, 2011     Permalink

NOVEMBER 10,  2011

SHORT TAKES ON THE DRIFTING WRECKAGE – AT 8:31 P.M. ET:

CAIN, THE UPDATE – It doesn't stop.  Now Herman Cain is under attack for calling Nancy Pelosi "Princess Nancy" during the debate last night.  He's apologized, but some commentators, like Gloria Borger and Donna Brazille on CNN, claim it represents his attitude toward women.  I don't think so, but the story must be milked. At the same time, conservative writer Ann Coulter has noticed something that's been overlooked – that the women who've come forward to accuse Cain all trace their alleged contact with him to the three years he spent at the National Restaurant Association.  Cain is 65.  What happened during the other 62 years?   Why no charges?  Coulter points out that all the women also originate in Chicago, the political base of one Barack Obama, and that David Axelrod and the Chicago machine have a history of digging out sex accusations against anyone they oppose.  Hmm.  Where there's smoke, is there fire?  I'm not sayin', I'm not sayin'.   

CHAVEZ GOING? – It's reported that Venezuelan strongman Hugo Chavez, a devoted enemy of the United States and an ally of Iran, is fading fast.  Chavez is a cancer patient.  Roger Noriega, former U.S. ambassador to the Organization of American States (OAS) reports that doctors treating Chavez don't expect him to live more than six months.  Chavez, by contrast, has announced that he's been healed.  Noriega also reports that Chavez has chosen a course of treatment designed, not to truly fight his disease, but to keep him functioning publicly.  There is no informed speculation that I've read as to who would take Chavez's place when he dies.  We would hope, of course, that the close relationship between Venezuela and Iran would end.

BOTCHING IRAN – It's hard to accept it, but France is taking a tougher line on the Iranian nuclear program than is our own government.  A French foreign policy official said today that France takes the new UN report on Iranian nuclear development very seriously and is prepared to propose tough, non-military action.  At the same time, the official said that if Israel decided to attack, France would "understand," a kind of wink-and-nod green light.  American officials are making confusing, weak statements.  Secretary of Defense Panetta, basically a good guy, gave a public comment outlining all the bad things a military attack on Iran could produce.  He may well have made some good points, but by seeming to take an attack off the table, it weakens our hand generally, and makes us look like the second-rate power Obama is turning us into.  If I were in Tehran, I'd be pleased.

REAL CLASS – The occupy movement, some of whose members actually raised some thoughtful points in the movement's first days, is degenerating into the same old 1960s story – a movement controlled by radical, adolescent elements.  CBS is reporting that a new "occupy" plan calls for crashing the Rose Parade in Pasadena on New York's Day.  As you know, the Rose Parade is a serious threat to the republic and equal rights.  One of the complaints of the organizers is the "militarization" of the parade.  Yes sirree, all America will be demanding war once a Marine band marches by, especially if it's playing the militaristic "America the Beautiful."  Geez.

November 10, 2011       Permalink 

ITALY AND EUROPE ON THE BRINK – AT 9:40 A.M. ET:  Have you noticed that the European economic crisis is "solved" one week, and comes back the next?  Weren't these Europeans the ones who endlessly lectured George W. Bush on how to manage things?  Europe is a train wreck, and yet there are still "sophisticates" who think we should do things the European way. 

The European way is collapsing, and we will get part of the bill, inevitably.  From Britain's Telegraph:

Here we go. The European economy seems already to have gone over the edge of the cliff, and that's before any of the eurozone 17 has technically defaulted. This morning's industrial production figures from Italy were a disaster, with output down a staggering 4.8pc in September.

OK, so Italian IP tends to be quite volatile – the previous month was sharply up. But regrettably, it's part of a pattern, only the worst in a bad bunch. In the same month, French industrial production was down 1.7pc and German industrial output by 2.7pc. The "mild recession" predicted by Mario Draghi, the European Central Bank's new president, last week, may already be a very serious one.

Italy managed successfully to offload €5bn of one year bonds onto the markets this morning – albeit at a penalty interest rate – but this was never going to be the real test of continued market appetite for Italian paper. That comes next week, with the auction of longer dated five year bonds. The longer the maturity, the greater the perceived risk of default, so it's going to be tough.

The biggest part of Italy's problem in terms of market credibility is its politics. There are undoubtedly big problems with the economy, but Italy is not Greece. On some measures, Italian output is larger than that of the UK, household debt is low and there's plenty of hidden wealth. But it is weighed down by checks and balances, and its politics are of byzantine complexity, making decisive corrective action next to impossible.

COMMENT:  Europe is a day-by-day affair, with Greece now equipped with a new government, and Italy likely to have one in the days ahead. 

Ironically, it is Europe's financial problems, largely caused by social welfare states that cannot afford the welfare, that may bring down Obama in 2012.  A serious European recession will slow, or even reverse, America's recovery, giving Obama precious little to bring to the 2012 election table.  As we noted in the post below, labor figures are marginally improving, something that helps Obama.  But if Europe slips behind the recession curtain, those labor figures will start moving in the other direction.

November 10, 2011       Permalink

JOBLESS CLAIMS DECLINE – AT 8:51 A.M. ET:  While the improvement is again small, there does seem to be an improving trend in jobless claims, something that could substantially help President Obama.  From Bloomberg:

The number of Americans filing applications for unemployment benefits fell to the lowest level in seven months, a sign the recovery may be encouraging companies to limit cuts in headcount.

Jobless claims fell by 10,000 to 390,000 in the week ended Nov. 5, Labor Department figures showed today in Washington. The median forecast of economists in a Bloomberg News survey called for 400,000 new claims. The number of people on unemployment benefit rolls decreased, while those getting extended payments rose.

Waning dismissals pave the way for bigger gains in payrolls and in consumer spending, which accounts for about 70 percent of the economy. At the same time, a pickup in hiring is needed to cut the unemployment rate, which Federal Reserve officials predict will not drop below 8 percent until 2013.

“We need claims to stay below the 400,000 level for some time before we can be sure there’s improvement,” Sean Incremona, a senior economist at 4Cast Inc. in New York, said before the report. “There’s still a lot of work to be done. The pace of hiring isn’t enough to significantly reduce the unemployment rate.”

COMMENT:  We need longer-term reports to judge what's actually happening, but every bit of good news strengthens the Obama campaign. 

Of course, the decrease in unemployment claims does not, as the story noted, mean a reduction in the jobless rate.  This country must add 150,000 new jobs each month just to keep up with population growth, and it isn't doing that.  It isn't coming close.  But will the press use only the "good" figures during the 2012 campaign to give a boost to Obama, while playing down the bad?  Do you have any doubts?

November 10, 2011       Permalink

ROMNEY TALKS TOUGH – AT 8:29 A.M. ET:  I hope Mitt Romney doesn't flip-flop on this, because his stand on Iran is right on.  The likely GOP nominee is going after President Obama's utterly failed diplomacy on Iran, a failure that continues to this hour.

The administration is already sending out mixed signals after a devastating UN report on Iran essentially accused Tehran, for the first time, of developing nuclear weapons.  Yes, Washington said, it's a tough report.  But on the other hand...

And the other hand seems to be winning.  While Washington and its European allies go through the motions of toughening sanctions on Iran, administration leakers are warning that tougher sanctions can hurt the world economy and drive up oil prices.  Some European nations are ludicrously asking for a meeting of the UN Security Council to discuss Iran, knowing full well that any real action would be vetoed by Russia and China, making a discussion meaningless. 

And, of course, there are the familiar efforts to blame, not Iran for its behavior, but those who want to stop Iran.  Why, they could start a war. 

Romney is stalwart on this, and we hope he continues:

Mitt Romney is seizing on the latest report on Iran’s nuclear program to drive home his criticism of President Barack Obama’s “extraordinary record of failure” in dealing with Tehran, and vowing that he will have a “very real and very credible military option” in the region as president.

The Republican presidential hopeful warned in an op-ed published in the Wall Street Journal Thursday that Iran is “making rapid headway” toward developing nuclear weapons, and yet “rhetoric and policy have been sharply at odds” under the Obama administration.

 “A serious U.S. strategy to block Iran’s nuclear ambitions became an urgent necessity. But that is precisely what the administration never provided. Instead, we’ve been offered a case study in botched diplomacy and its potentially horrific costs,” Romney wrote, following the International Atomic Energy Agency’s recent warning about Iran’s nuclear program.

Romney vowed that as president, he would not only impose tougher economic sanctions on Tehran and speak out more forcefully against Iranian dissidents, but that he would also draft a stronger military plan to ensure that Iran abandons its nuclear ambitions.

“I will back up American diplomacy with a very real and very credible military option. I will restore the regular presence of aircraft carrier groups in the Mediterranean and the Persian Gulf region simultaneously,” he said. “I will increase military assistance to Israel and coordination with all of our allies in the region.”

And...

“Barack Obama has shredded his own credibility on Iran, conveyed an image of American weakness, and increased the prospect of a cascade of nuclear proliferation in the unstable Middle East,” he said. “The United States needs a very different policy.”

COMMENT:  Romney has stated it well.  But the overall reaction in Washington to the UN report on Iran has been disappointing.  The economy overwhelms every other issue.  It is a reminder of the 1930s, when the Great Depression made it difficult for Americans to focus on foreign threats.

November 10, 2011       Permalink

THE DEBATE – AT 7:49 A..M. ET:  Most of the chatter across the internet this morning, at least that dealing with the GOP debate last night, focused on Rick Perry's nightmarish memory lapse, during which he couldn't name the three government departments he wants to abolish.  It's pretty much assumed that this latest Perry gaffe has now finished him off as a 2012 candidate.  He did nothing else during the debate to save himself.

With voting in Iowa set to start in the first week in January, Republican voters are not being given any compelling reason to jump on board any campaign train.  Mitt Romney is the ostensible frontrunner, and I'm afraid he will win by default.  It must be conceded, though, that of all the candidates he seemed last night, as he has seemed before, the best prepared.

Can Romney defeat Obama?  I think it's a tough call, and one that will be decided by the actual state of the economy on election day.  Romney's flip-flopping on issues is clearly the factor that is already hurting him.  I'd imagine his campaign team is already working on ways to turn that around, possibly by focusing on Obama's history of flip-flops.

Another danger area for Romney is his apparent decision to stay under wraps as much as possible, inching toward the "inevitable" nomination.  He has now raised eyebrows by turning down an invitation from Fox News to appear on its 6 p.m. ET news program for an extended interview, something other candidates have done.  And he has yet to appear on Chris Wallace's "Fox News Sunday."  He can't keep doing this without antagonizing the press, even the conservative press.  Playing it safe may actually be playing it dangerously.

November 10, 2011     Permalink