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NOVEMBER 4,  2011

SHORT TAKES ON THE DRIFTING WRECKAGE – AT 10:52 P.M. ET:

DISGRACEFUL – A high American official is quoted as saying the United States would be "satisfied" by an election victory of the Muslim Brotherhood in Egypt.  This is sick.  The Muslim Brotherhood, despite some occasionally slick P.R., is radical organization that is fundamentally at odds with the modern world.  It is also, of course, fanatically anti-Israel.  So once again an American ally is thrown under the bus so the Obama administration can appease the rise of Islam in the Mideast.  If Obama is doing this now, can you imagine what a second term will be like, when he is free of the need to run again?

FRAUDULENT – Just as one American official was groveling before the Muslim Brotherhood, another was saying, anonymously of course, that the administration is concerned about reports that Israel may strike Iran to wipe out its nuclear program.  Imagine where we are.  We appease our enemies and express concern about our friends.  Recently, the U.S. learned of an Iranian plot to murder the Saudi ambassador to Washington on our soil, in a bombing that could have killed hundreds of Americans.  The Obamans asked for tough new sanctions on Iran, but I learned today that they're backing off from that, fearful of damaging the international economy by targeting Iranian banks.  Hey, what's a little bombing?

CAIN WEATHERING THE STORM – Is the worst over for Herman Cain?  It may be.  Today the lawyer for one of the women who accused Cain of "unwanted" advances in the 1990s said, in a statement through her lawyer, that the charges were true, but that she didn't wish to pursue the subject any longer, and wanted to remain anonymous.  There were no specifics about the allegedly offensive behavior.  So, after a week we still don't know what this is about, although The Politico has run 90 stories about it.  And I think most fair-minded people will recoil at the fact that the accuser can retain her anonymity, but that Cain cannot, and must take these arrows from unnamed people, without a single specific attached.  I would hope that even the media, with its pathetic standards, would recognize the unfairness in this.  We'll see in the next few days if the story peters out, or if the usual suspects try to keep it going.  Cain did not handle this well, but I sense he's getting a sympathy backlash.

YEAH, RIGHT – President Obama said today that the least of his concerns is the presidential election of 2012.  The president and his staff then joined together for responsive readings from "Pinocchio."

November 4, 2011    Permalink

ECONOMIC DANGER SIGN – AT 8:49 A.M. ET:  The rule of thumb is that this country must create 150,000 jobs each month just to keep up with population growth.

We ain't doin' it.  The latest figures were just released.  From Fox:

Hiring slowed in October as employers faced more uncertainty over future economic growth.

The Labor Department says the economy added 80,000 jobs last month, the fewest in four months and below September's revised total of 158,000. The unemployment rate dipped to 9 percent.

Businesses added 104,000 jobs, below September's total. Government shed 24,000 jobs.

The report included some positive signs. The government revised August and September's figures upward by 102,000. Average hourly earnings rose. And the unemployment rate fell for the first time since July, because a separate survey of households showed more people found work.

The report suggests that President Obama will likely face the voters with the highest unemployment rate of any postwar president.

COMMENT:  Any recovery we're experiencing is at best anemic, and very fragile.  And if Obama does manage to get re-elected, does anyone doubt his administration will go right back to the kind of over-regulation that is helping to frustrate American business and entrepreneurship?

Politically, the question is whether the Republicans, who work hard to insure their own defeat, can get their act together and present a campaign that the American people can buy into.  That hasn't happened so far, but we have to remain optimistic that the better forces will converge once a nominee is selected.  The future of the country depends on it.

November 4, 2011     Permalink

THE DEAL UNRAVELS – AT 8:20 A.M. ET:  Earlier this week the Arab League announced with great fanfare that Syria had agreed to stop its crackdown on protesters.  There was the hope that the brutality of the Assad regime would be curtailed. 

Some hope.  Apparently, nothing has actually changed:

(Reuters) - Syrian tank fire killed at least three people in the city of Homs early on Friday as security forces pursued a violent crackdown on protesters despite a government agreement with the Arab League to stop shooting and talk to its opponents.

The latest deaths followed a bloody day in Homs, where activists said at least 22 people were killed as tanks shelled the Bab Amro district and troops and snipers fired elsewhere in the city, a hotbed of protests and an emerging insurgency.

One witness, who asked not to be named, said he had seen dozens of bodies of civilian men with bullet wounds at the city's National Hospital, controlled by the security forces.

COMMENT:  Once again we were asked to believe that a brutal dictator would become less brutal beause of a deal made with a group like the Arab League.  Assad of Syria shows no sign that he is relinquishing any power.  Thus far, the Western nations have not taken any direct action, as they did, effectively, in Libya.

At the same time, we caution that we're not exactly sure who the "opposition" is.  In Libya there are disturbing reports of Al Qaeda flags now flying over the city of Benghazi.  In Egypt, the wonderful guys at the Muslim Brotherhood appear to be gaining power.  And remember that Jimmy ("I'm the best ex-president ever") Carter welcomed the fall of the Shah of Iran and the coming of the Ayatollah Khomeini in the Iranian "revolution" of the late 1970s.

It's the Mideast.  It's not like we're dealing with real people.

November 4, 2011       Permalink 

THEY FINALLY DISCOVERED THIS? – AT 8:04 A.M. ET:  Well, there goes the support of the Young Communist League.  Cuba, in an utterly outrageous betrayal of all the college students who trekked down there to cut sugar cane for the revolution while trying to achieve the maturity of 12-year-olds, has legalized, must I say it, some forms of private property.  What will Occupy Wall Street say?

HAVANA (AP) -- For the first time in a half-century, Cubans will be allowed to buy and sell real estate openly, bequeath property to relatives without restriction and avoid forfeiting their homes if they abandon the country.

The highly anticipated new rules instantly transform islanders' cramped, dilapidated homes into potential liquid assets in the most significant reform yet adopted by President Raul Castro since he took over the communist country from his brother in 2008.

But plenty of restrictions remain.

Cuban exiles continue to be barred from owning property on the island, though they can presumably help relatives make purchases by sending money. And foreigners can also hold off on dreams of acquiring a pied-a-terre under the Caribbean sun, since only citizens and permanent residents are eligible.

COMMENT:  You know, you just can't get pure revolutions any longer.  I hope that Michael Moore, Jane Fonda, and Harry Belafonte go down there and really give Raul Castro an equitably distributed piece of their minds. 

I wonder what Fidel is thinking.  I'd imagine he and his nurses have gone back into the hills to plan the overthrow of the brother.  (Never give a business to the brother.  You know what they do to it.)

And with Hugo Chavez sick, what's a young dissenter to do?

Look to Libya, I say.  They may need volunteers to seal the oil barrels.  It's for the people.

November 4, 2011       Permalink

CAIN HOLDS STEADY DESPITE CHARGES – AT 7:43 A.M. ET:  A new Washington Post/ABC News poll shows Herman Cain holding steady and doing well, despite sexual harassment charges against him.

Businessman Herman Cain and former Massachusetts governor Mitt Romney are running nearly even atop the field of 2012 GOP presidential hopefuls, a new Washington Post-ABC News poll shows, with most Republicans dismissing the harassment allegations that over the past week have roiled Cain’s campaign.

Seven in 10 Republicans say reports that Cain made unwanted advances toward two employees when he was head of the National Restaurant Association in the 1990s--allegations which have been stiffly rebutted by Cain’s campaign--do not matter when it comes to picking a candidate.

But the potential threat to his burgeoning campaign is evident as well, with Cain slipping to third place among those who see the charges as serious, and Republican women significantly more likely than men to say the scandal makes them less apt to support Cain.

The poll was conducted Oct. 31 through Nov. 3, starting the evening after Politico first reported the harassment allegations. Support for Cain was basically steady over the four nights of interviewing, even as new charges against him surfaced.

COMMENT:  The results are not surprising.  First, Republicans, being less trendy than Dems, are, I think, less likely to accept harassment claims at face value, demanding more evidence.  Second, we have not seen the faces of accusers, and Americans, being fair-minded, believe that a citizen has a right to face his or her accuser, not face written statements by lawyers.  Third, there is a sympathy backlash.  And fourth, many people do recall the similar assault on Clarence Thomas and resent it.

Those factors do not, of course, make Herman Cain innocent.  Only a presentation of facts will demonstrate that.  So let's have them.

November 4, 2011     Permalink

NOVEMBER 3,  2011

SHORT TAKES ON THE DRIFTING WRECKAGE – AT 9:06 P.M. ET:

CAINIACS – Despite all the angst, Herman Cain continues to rake in large contributions, and still sits at the top of the GOP pack in the latest Rasmussen poll.  However, he is getting very low marks from thoughtful reporters on the way he, and his campaign, have handled the charges against him.  Cain has a tendency to make off-the-cuff remarks that he then has to walk back.  Yesterday he accused the Perry campaign of being the source of the leaked information about sexual harassment charges.  No evidence was presented, and the accusation kind of went away today.   Now we see that the Cain campaign is hinting it may sue The Politico, which broke the story.  Nonsense.  There's nothing to sue about.  Cain is a public figure, and would have to prove actual malice to win a defamation suit, which he could not prove.  I'm not sure this man has the judgment to be president.

IRAN ACCUSED AGAIN – The latest installment in the current intrigue over a possible Israeli, or Western, attack on Iran's nuclear facilities came today when the Obama administration noted publicly that Iran is the only signatory to the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty that cannot convince the UN that its nuclear program is peaceful.  Are the new American accusations part of the "case" being made for a pre-emptive attack?  We won't know until, and unless, an attack actually occurs, but there is clearly something going on, as we reported earlier today.

GUTS – A French satirical newspaper, called Charlie Hebdo, was firebombed earlier this week for printing a cartoon of the Prophet Mohammad.  And now they've reprinted it, as a sign of defiance against the firebombers.  The weekly paper defended "the freedom to poke fun" in explaining its decision.  In fairness, some Muslim groups in France have condemned the firebombing, and some have even defended the paper's treatment of Mohammad.  However, events like a firebombing take their eventual toll.  In America, the Yale University Press censored one of its offerings, cutting out cartoons "offensive" to Islam, rather than face objection.  The term "chilling effect" applies.

ABOUT TIME – Mitt Romney has finally begun to reply to the single most effective charge against him, that he's a career flip-flopper who regularly changes his views to fit the political fashions.  This charge is made both within the GOP, where there is much support and little love for Romney, and by the Democratic Party, which will use it if Romney gets the Republican nod.  Romney's initial statements on the question are vague, though, his defense being that he doesn't always state his opinion in the same words, but that he's been as consistent as humanly possible.  Well, frankly, that just won't cut it.  Romney has flip-flopped, although he can turn right around and look at the marching inconsistencies in Barack Obama's rhetoric as well.  How much will the charge actually hurt Romney?  I guess that will depend on how badly Americans want Obama out of office.

November 3, 2011     Permalink 

STRIKE ON IRAN? – AT 8:48 A.M. ET:  The buzz continues about a possible Israeli – or American – strike on Iran, possibly with British support.  Britain's highest ranking military officer visited Israel this week secretly, but the news leaked out.

Indeed, the Israeli prime minister ordered an inquiry into the inordinate number of leaks about Israel's possible  Iran intentions.  There is informed speculation that the leaks are coming from political opponents in the defense establishment who oppose an attack on Iran's nuclear facilities.

There is also this nugget, from Britain's leftish newspaper, the Guardian: 

Britain's armed forces are stepping up their contingency planning for potential military action against Iran amid mounting concern about Tehran's nuclear enrichment programme, the Guardian has learned.

The Ministry of Defence believes the US may decide to fast-forward plans for targeted missile strikes at some key Iranian facilities. British officials say that if Washington presses ahead it will seek, and receive, UK military help for any mission, despite some deep reservations within the coalition government.

In anticipation of a potential attack, British military planners are examining where best to deploy Royal Navy ships and submarines equipped with Tomahawk cruise missiles over the coming months as part of what would be an air and sea campaign.

They also believe the US would ask permission to launch attacks from Diego Garcia, the British Indian ocean territory, which the Americans have used previously for conflicts in the Middle East.

The Guardian has spoken to a number of Whitehall and defence officials over recent weeks who said Iran was once again becoming the focus of diplomatic concern after the revolution in Libya.

They made clear that Barack Obama, has no wish to embark on a new and provocative military venture before next November's presidential election.

But they warned the calculations could change because of mounting anxiety over intelligence gathered by western agencies, and the more belligerent posture that Iran appears to have been taking.

COMMENT:  I dissent from the notion that Obama "has no wish to embark on a new and provocative military venture before" our election.  That would be just the time to do it.  His popularity would soar and his reelection would probably be assured.   He would position himself as the true commander-in-chief, protecting the nation.  Of course, the assault would have to go well.

There are simply too many reports from too many different centers for us to believe that there's nothing here.  Next week the UN issues its report on Iran's nuclear program, and it is expected to be deeply disturbing. 

I'd watch this closely.  With the US withdrawing from Iraq and Afghanistan, a strike on Iran could cripple, or at least set back, the one nation in the region that could give us serious trouble.  The topping on the cake would be if the attack weakened the government and led to a popular revolution.

November 3, 2011       Permalinks

GUARDED ECONOMIC NEWS – AT 8:36 A.M. ET:  Jobless claims declined last week to under 400,000, but this must be seen as only marginally good news, as we're not creating many jobs.  The new figures simply mean that the Titanic is sinking at a slower rate:

Fewer Americans filed applications for unemployment benefits last week, signaling limited progress in the labor market.

Jobless claims fell by 9,000 to 397,000 in the week ended Oct. 29, the fewest in a month, Labor Department figures showed today in Washington. The median forecast of 49 economists in a Bloomberg News survey called for a drop to 400,000. The total number of people on unemployment benefit rolls decreased to a six-month low.
Fewer dismissals, a precursor to bigger gains in payrolls, may help sustain the spending by households that accounts for about 70 percent of the economy. Federal Reserve officials yesterday projected that it will be 2013 before the jobless rate drops below 8 percent.

“Layoffs remain contained despite high uncertainty in the economy,” Michelle Girard, senior economist at RBS Securities in Stamford, Connecticut, said before the report. “This stability is reassuring.”

COMMENT:  Obviously, if the jobless figures continue to go in the right direction, even slowly, that will help Obama win reelection.  But there are plenty of hazards down the road, including the unstable situation in Europe.  So we should not be moved either way by one month's figures.

November 3, 2011       Permalink

HERMAN – AT 8:07 A.M. ET:  It's all Herman all the time.  Herman Cain's problems have sucked most of the air out of the Republican race, at least for this week. 

It is clear that Cain is in some trouble.  More people, including men, and a third woman, have come forward to say that they've seen him engage in what must be termed mildly inappropriate conduct.  No one thus far is accusing him of the worst kind of sexual harassment, the quid pro quo.  You know, "You come to my hotel room and I'll take good care of you in your career."  At worst, at least so far, Cain may have engaged in what one accuser called "awkward" comments. 

The problem is that he's handled the issue poorly, with evasive or highly technical answers, getting snippy with the press, and changing some stories.  Also, Cain and his handlers are blaming the Perry camp for starting these stories, but don't seem to have the proof to back up the charge.  From Fox:

Pollster Chris Wilson told KTOK radio in Oklahoma that at the time the woman was a "lower level staffer" probably two years out of college. But her experiences with Cain were witnessed by him and others attending an event at a restaurant in Crystal City, Va., right across the river from Washington, D.C.

"Everybody was aware of it," he told the radio station. "It was only a matter of time because so many people were aware of what took place, so many people were aware of her situation, the fact she left after this. Everybody knew ... with the campaign that this would eventually come up."

From WaPo:

Just about the only thing that was becoming clearer as the controversy headed into its fourth day was that it is not going to go away anytime soon.

The third accuser is an unidentified woman who told the Associated Press that she had considered filing a workplace complaint against Cain for what the news service described as “sexually suggestive remarks or gestures” when she was working at the National Restaurant Association and he was the head of the group.

The alleged misbehavior occurred about the same time that two co-workers settled separate harassment complaints against Cain, each reportedly for five figures.

COMMENT:   This is a drip, drip, drip situation, which the press loves.  It continues the story, and takes attention away from the other candidates.  More and more will drip out.  Cain is trapped in very bad situation.   As Haley Barbour has said, Cain would certainly rather be talking about something else.

I don't see any chance that Cain will pull out of the race.  It's not in his character.  He's a fighter.  He should probably ask that all confidentiality agreements be dropped and that anyone with a charge come forward publicly, and by name, so he can reply.   In the meantime, Cain can try to return to a discussion of the issues.

As noted, the level of the charges apparently made against Cain is fairly low.  If they were higher charges, the settlements would have been larger.  So the voters will decide Herman Cain's fate once the facts are in.  Cain's handling of the crisis is more important than the original cases, at least in the political sense.

November 3, 2011       Permalink

EUROPE IN CRISIS – AT 7:51 A.M. ET:  International economics is a complicated subject, and Americans shy away from it.  But what's happening in Europe can soon affect us here.  The focus today is on Greece, whose economy is tottering, while a number of its citizens parade through the streets demanding that their benefits not be cut.

This is what happens when governments make promises they can't keep.

Other European countries are trying to stabilize the situation, but there is not much optimism.  From the Washington Post:

CANNES, France — European leaders said they would halt further aid to debt-ridden Greece until the country completes a controversial referendum on the international bailout and signaled that preparations are underway for the possibility that Greece will abandon the euro.

In what they described as a “difficult” meeting with Prime Minister George Papandreou, European leaders and officials from the International Monetary Fund laid down a firm line: He was free to proceed with plans for a nationwide vote on whether Greece wants to continue under an international emergency program that has demanded stiff austerity measures. But he would get no other help in the meantime, and if Greek citizens reject the program, they would effectively be rejecting the euro.

It was the most direct acknowledgment yet by top European leaders that a breakup of the euro is not only possible but so tangible they need to begin making preparations.

The European leaders said they would speed implementation of current crisis-fighting plans so they will be ready for any outcome in the Greek vote, now slated for early December.

COMMENT:  That means we'll know whether Greece will remain in the European monetary system by early December.  Markets are being riled, and the European crisis, which could result in a Greek default, followed by the falling dominoes of Italy, Spain, and Ireland, could make our problems look somewhat pale by comparison. 

In some way, though, America will be paying for this wreckage.  If the European economy heads south, so will our exports to Europe.  Fewer sales, fewer jobs.

So far the economic geniuses haven't batted too well in getting the world back on track following the 2008 convulsions.  Maybe they should let some local storekeepers try.  They probably understand more.

November 3, 2011     Permalink