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NOVEMBER 1,  2011

SHORT TAKES ON THE DRIFTING WRECKAGE – AT 10:28 P.M. ET:

BUSH AND PERRY – There have been reports of a feud between former President George W. Bush and Texas Governor Rick Perry, who succeeded Bush in the governor's chair, and the reporting seems to be supported by some financial statistics.  It turns out that fewer than one in ten of Bush's major financial backers is contributing to the Perry campaign.  Most are contributing to Romney.  In addition, Perry isn't doing as well in polls in his own home state as he should be.  Herman Cain is almost running even with him.  Of course, Perry has been elected to three terms, and is the nation's longest-serving governor.  It's possible that Texas is just suffering from some Perry fatigue.

ANOTHER ONE? – Major Democratic moneybags George Soros is snapping back at his former lover, the Brazilian soap star Adriana Ferreyr.  Ferreyr is suing Soros for $50-million, a tip for George, claiming he showed her the door after five years and didn't buy her a promised apartment.  Soros is accusing Ferreyr of being a money grubber and an extortionist.  I think Soros should just give her the money, in the public interest.  He would then have $50-million less to contribute to PBS or any of the other organizations he likes to finance.  Also, it's unseemly for a leftist to say nasty things about a woman who's a member of an oppressed group, soap actresses.  They suffer in afternoon anonymity.  It's bad, very bad, a crime against humanity.

GREAT CONTRIBUTION TO THE WORKING CLASS – The "occupy" movement has made a major contribution to the economy.  Because of its behavior in lower Manhattan, a local cafe has had to lay off 25% of its workers.  Business has dropped considerably because patrons just don't want to run the gauntlet, many having been subjected to taunts and the various aromas surrounding the "occupy" crowd.  You know, if these people actually had a program, and knew how to conduct themselves, they might actually get something done.  But "occupy" is turning into a joke, another nostalgic throwback to the 1960s.  I was at those demonstrations too, and there isn't much difference between then and now.  Even the jeans look the same.  Now jobs are being lost. 

DECISION SHIFT – The Obama administration is about to make a major decision on whether to approve the controversial Keystone XL pipeline that would bring oil from Canada to our Gulf Coast refineries.  The decision was expected to be made by the State Department, but President Obama now hints that he personally will make it.  It is critical that the pipeline be built.  It will make us less dependent on the Mideast, and will add thousands of jobs.  Modern technology can allow us to do this safely.  Obama can appeal to his pre-industrial-age base by deciding against the line, and he'll make the Mideast oil nations happy.  Or, he can appeal to the majority of Americans, even at the risk of some Saudi grumbling, or whatever they do over there.  I'm not betting either way.

November 1, 2011       Permalink

CAIN UNDER ASSAULT – AT 10:04 P.M. ET:  The assault on Herman Cain continues, and is escalating.  Today we got a statement from the lawyer of one of Cain's accusers, asking that Cain release her from her confidentiality agreement so she can tell what, she claims, happened between Cain and her.

Actually, Cain can't do that himself.  Her agreement was, apparently, between the woman and the National Restaurant Association, which Cain headed as CEO.  So Cain would have to request the NRA to release the woman.

Cain was asked whether he'd do this on a Fox News show.  He ducked the question, saying only that he'd study the matter. 

It is perfectly obvious that information is being systematically, and expertly, leaked to the press.  It's reported that some newspeople have staked out one of the women who charged Cain.  Now, how did they get her name?  This is the woman who wants to come forward and speak to the press.  Why aren't we permitted to know her name.  Oh, she's described as an Ivy League graduate who works for the government.

Hmm.

Works for the government.

The first thing I want to know is whether she's civil service, or a political appointee.  If a political appointee, I want to know who appointed her. (Why do I think we're getting to the heart of this campaign against Cain?)  Is this a legitimate charge, or is this someone trying to be another Anita Hill?

I do not know the facts.  I make no judgments on the merits of the case against Cain.  But there is a sleazy feel to this whole business. 

Stand by.  More is going to happen. 

November 1, 2011     Permalink

YOU KNOW WHAT TALKS – AT 10:34 A.M. ET:  The big question surrounding Herman Cain today is whether the report that he was charged with sexual harassment by two women in the 1990s would damage his campaign.  We do not yet have any polling on this, but one indicator is positive for Cain.  From The Hill: 

Herman Cain's presidential campaign raised one quarter of a million dollars on Monday, just as sexual harassment allegations were flying around Cain and his campaign was put in its most defensive position to date.

"It was one of our best fundraising days ever," campaign manager Mark Block said Tuesday, adding that Cain's economic message and outsider status were clearly resonating across the United States.

Cain said Monday he had never sexually harassed anyone in his life, dismissing a report in Politico claiming that two women who worked for Cain while he headed the National Restaurant Association had received financial settlements in connection with harassment complaints against Cain.

“Done. Move on,” Block said Tuesday at an elections forum hosted by National Journal. “Let's talk about what the American people want to hear about, and that's jobs, jobs jobs.”

Cain also dodged new allegations that have emerged about potentially illegal donations to the campaign from a charity that Block founded. The Milwaukee Journal Sentinel reported that the campaign owes Prosperity USA about $40,000 for footing the bill for expenses, in possible breach of federal law.

Block said the campaign would respond to the allegations accordingly, repeatedly declining to comment further.

COMMENT:  It is clearly open season on Herman Cain, a status he earned by leaping to the top in the polls.  The fundraising is impressive, probably reflecting anger by his supporters at the sex claims, which are vague.

We await the next polls.  And let's see if anything else comes out about Cain.  As a conservative African-American, he has many built-in enemies who see him as a challenge to their "narrative."  Many media types will help out in trying to discredit Cain.

Voting in Iowa begins in two months.

November 1, 2011       Permalink

OUT OF THE FRYING PAN – AT 9:20 A.M. ET:  There was much hoopla last week over a deal that was advertised as saving Europe from financial disaster, which would have had a major impact on the United States.  Now, though, that deal is in jeopardy, as Greece once again flirts with default.  Markets are already reacting:

Athens, Greece (CNN) -- European stock markets dropped dramatically Tuesday and the leaders of France and Germany scheduled an emergency conversation after Greek Prime Minister George Papandreou called a shock national referendum on international aid for his country.

A Greek rejection of the bail-out deal, which took months to hammer out, could lead the country to crash out of the euro and default on debts in an uncontrolled way, sending shock waves through the global financial system.
And the announcement of the referendum rattled Papandreou's hold on power Tuesday, as a lawmaker defected from his party, leaving him with a majority of only two in Parliament.

Milena Apostolaki announced her resignation from the PASOK party, saying the call for a referendum was "a deeply divisive procedure."

The European debt crisis claimed its first American victim shortly before Papandreou announced the referendum on Monday, as MF Global filed for bankruptcy protection, leaving top Wall Street creditors holding more than $2 billion in debt.

The commodities and derivatives broker was run by ex-Sen. Jon Corzine, a former head of Goldman Sachs.

COMMENT:  We are not financial gurus here, but you don't have to be Warren Buffett to realize how precarious our financial situation has become.  We are partially dependent on the health of Europe.  Right now the DOW is down 2.26%, clearly reacting to the possible unraveling of the European deal. 

The economy will determine the results of our next election, unless the GOP botches it all.  It's November 1st, and that election is barely a year away. 

One of the great issues in Europe is the refusal of the populace in many countries to understand that their governments can't keep handing out entitlements with no money in the bank.  Kids understand that.  Adults have a hard time, especially when they're told they're living in a socialist paradise.

November 1, 2011       Permalink

SNIPPET OF THE DAY – AT 8:45 A.M. ET: 

From the Netherlands:  Tilburg and Groningen universities are to take legal action against one of their professors after an investigation showed he had faked research data in at least 30 scientific papers.  The fraud is ‘considerable and shocking’, the committee set up to look into Diederik Stapel’s academic publications said in an initial report into the scandal on Monday.  Stapel, who was a professor of social and behavioural sciences at Tilburg, was suspended last month after doubts emerged about research that concluded eating meat makes people anti-social and selfish.

I knew immediately that this research was faked when I scientifically observed meat eaters smiling at people and making charitable donations.  You just have to know what to look for.

THOSE DANGEROUS BISHOPS! – I simply cannot understand why liberal groups are so frightened of religious institutions who don't share all of their views.   Why, Catholic University in Washington, D.C. is being sued by a lawyer acting on behalf of Muslim students who apparently are offended that they must hold daily prayer meetings in a room that actually has...a cross.  Can you imagine that?  A cross in a Catholic school?  What scandal will occur next?

Now the Obamans, in a trip down the road to Nutsville, have withdrawn financial support from a religious group that is fighting to stop human trafficking.  As usual, the ACLU has shown up at the game.  From the Washington Post:

A contentious battle between Catholic groups and the Obama administration has flared in recent days, fueled by the new health-care law and ongoing divisions over access to abortion and birth control.

The latest dispute centers on a decision by the Department of Health and Human Services in late September to end funding to the U.S. Conference of Catholic Bishops to help victims of human trafficking, or modern-day slavery. The church group had overseen nationwide services to victims since 2006 but was denied a new grant in favor of three other groups.

The bishops organization, in line with the church’s teachings, had refused to refer trafficking victims for contraceptives or abortion. The American Civil Liberties Union sued, and HHS officials said they made a policy decision to award the grants to agencies that would refer women for those services.

The bishops conference is threatening legal action and accusing the administration of anti-Catholic bias, which HHS officials deny.

COMMENT:  Poor decision by the Obamans.  The funding can be restored to this critical, humanitarian mission.  As for access to abortion or contraception, for those who wish it, that can be arranged outside the religious order.  But to cut off funding when women are being enslaved, because of an ideological dispute, is unconscionable.

November 1, 2011       Permalink

OH DEAR, THE BOYS ARE BACK – AT 7:53 A.M. ET:  Apparently, our Russian friends aren't friends, and Barack Obama's "reset" of relations with Russia was actually a short circuit.  From the great Bill Gertz at the Washington Times:

The FBI rounded up a network of deep-cover Russian spies last year after the group came close to placing an agent near a Cabinet official in the Obama administration, a senior FBI counterspy said Monday as the bureau released once-secret documents on the case.

Frank Figliuzzi, assistant FBI director for counterintelligence, did not identify the Cabinet official, but other U.S. officials said it was Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton.

Mr. Figliuzzi said in an interview that the FBI decided to end its more than 10-year-long counterspy investigation of the network because of concerns that the spies were “getting very close to their objective.”

“These 10 Russian officers were sent to the U.S. on a specific mission to get close to U.S. policymakers and leaders in our government,” he said, noting that one had developed a friendship with someone close to a Cabinet official.

Mrs. Clinton’s spokesman at the time the case broke, P.J. Crowley, sought to distance her from the case, but did not deny that she was the person mentioned in court papers. “There is no reason to believe that the Secretary of State was a special target of this spy ring,” Mr. Crowley said in an email.

COMMENT:  We often focus on the Islamist threat and the Chinese threat, or even the Venezuelan nuisance, but we tend to forget that Russia is becoming Russia again, with Putin very much in control, and newer and better weapons under development.  Also, Russia regularly blocks anything we want to do in the UN Security Council.

There has been no reset, except to move us into a weaker position.

November 1, 2011     Permalink

OCTOBER 31,  2011

SHORT TAKES ON THE DRIFTING WRECKAGE – AT 10:47 P.M. ET:

CAIN RESPONDS – Herman Cain has apparently gotten some good political advice, and spent the day responding to the sexual harassment issue.  You have to deal with these things quickly and effectively.  Thus far, no reporter appears to have reached the two women who allegedly made the charge in the 1990s.  Cain was reasonably effective in his replies.  Obviously, something happened, but he claims the matter was investigated and that he was exonerated.  He claims he doesn't know of any financial settlement with the two women, which is tough to believe.  However, these cases are often settled by giving accusers some money, whereupon they leave.  We don't know the facts.  There are obviously very truthful harassment charges, but there are others.  We'll see in the next polling round if this has hurt Cain.

PALESTINIANS BULLY U.S. – Despite warnings from the U.S. that funding could be affected, UNESCO, which has a history of corruption, today voted to make "Palestine" a full member, even though it isn't a country and is "controlled" by two separate governments, Hamas and the Palestinian Authority.  Thus the Pals thumbed their noses at President Obama, who'd asked that membership applications be held off until peace was negotiated with the Israelis.  Obama is perceived as weak.  However, the U.S., in response to the vote, did freeze funds for UNESCO, a proper response to
the Palestinian attempt to circumvent negotiations.

THE GRAND ILLUSION IS BURST AGAIN – The illusion, hustled by the real-estate lobby in the last 20 years, is that you can't lose money in real estate.  Tell that to the millions of Americans whose homes are underwater.  Now, a major analytical company predicts that housing is in for a triple-dip recession, with prices expected to fall another 3.6% by next June, meaning they'll be 35% below their 2006 peak.  The real-estate bubble was one of the most irresponsible that I've seen, with people pressured into buying junk at exorbitant prices, expecting prices to automatically go up.  Junk is still junk.  What went up during the bubble were not real-estate values, but real-estate prices, an entirely different matter.

MISPLACED PRIORITIES? – A disturbing story in The Hill reports that the Obama administration is seeking to shift our military emphasis from the Middle East to the Asia/Pacific region.  While we must beef up our Asia/Pacific preparedness, turning away from the Mideast would be a catastrophe, especially with Iran's rise.  We must be able to handle both regions, something made more difficult by budget cuts.  We learned from today's Daily Mail (London) that the Al Qaeda flag has been raised over Benghazi, Libya, one of Libya's major population centers.  At a time when the Mideast is so unstable, it is grossly irresponsible to be sending out messages saying we're shifting our focus.  Where is the thinking in this?  Or is this just another pathetic attempt by the Obamans to appease the Muslim world, something that has brought us zero results?

October 31, 2011       Permalink 

MARKETS WORK – AT 9:21 A.M. ET:  I find this story delightful.  The market works...when people make decisions that force it to work. 

Warren Buffett has been known to cross a street to save a quarter.  Good for him.  Intelligent economic choices force businesses to compete and to become both efficient  and consumer-friendly. 

Recently, Bank of America announced a five-dollar-a-month fee for using its debit cards.  Other cards were said to be "considering" the same thing.  But Bank of America's customers made their feelings known, and in some cases relieved Bank of America of their deposits.  The result is pure free enterprise, as AP reports:

NEW YORK — Chase is joining the list of banks that won’t be charging customers to use their debit cards, as the backlash to Bank of America’s planned $5 monthly fee continues.

The retail banking arm of JPMorgan Chase & Co. will stop charging a $3-per-month fee for using debit cards when its current pilot program in Wisconsin and Georgia ends in November, a source with knowledge of the bank’s plans told the Associated Press.

And...

Banks are justifying the fees by stating that they need to recoup revenue lost to new regulations that limit the fees they can collect from retailers for handling debit card transactions. But the new fees sparked a huge backlash...

...Credit unions and community banks nationwide are reporting huge spikes in new accounts as consumers seek no-fee options.

And...

The anger appears to be resonating. On Friday, Bank of America bent. A source at the bank, who asked not to be identified because the policy is still evolving, said it likely it will offer ways for its customers to avoid debit card fees through using direct deposit, maintaining minimum balances or using Bank of America credit cards.

COMMENT:  When customers fight back against things they don't like, they often win.  Free enterprise works when people participate responsibly, which sometimes means doing a little work to find the best product or service at the best price. 

Now if we can only get the market to work in driving college costs down.  That may be a pipe dream.

October 31, 2011       Permalink 

OUR STARTLING DEFENSE SHRINKAGE – AT 8:46 A.M. ET:  Robert Samuelson, in the Washington Post, writes one of the best articles I've read, warning of further drawdowns in our national defense.  Samuelson reveals some stunning statistics that, I think, will shock our readers:

People who see military cuts as an easy way to reduce budget deficits forget that this has already occurred. From the late 1980s to 2010, the number of America’s armed forces dropped from 2.1 million men and women to about 1.4 million. The downsizing — the “peace dividend” from the end of the Cold War — was not undone by the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan. In 1990, the Army had 172 combat battalions, the Navy 546 ships and the Air Force 4,355 fighters; today, those numbers are 100 battalions, 288 ships and 1,990 fighters.

And we now have the oldest air fleet in the Air Force that we've ever had.

Three bogus arguments are commonly made to rationalize big military cuts.

First, we can’t afford today’s military.

Not so. How much we spend is a political decision. In the 1950s and 1960s, when the country was much poorer, 40 percent to 50 percent of the federal budget routinely went to defense, representing 8 to 10 percent of our national income. By 2010, a wealthier America devoted only 20 percent of federal spending and 4.8 percent of national income to the military.

I wish facts like this would be publicized more capably by conservatives, some of whom have become wishy-washy on defense.

Second, we spend so much more than anyone else that cutbacks won’t make us vulnerable.

In 2009, U.S. defense spending was six times China’s and 13 times Russia’s, according to estimates from the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute. The trouble with these numbers is that they don’t truly adjust for differences in income levels. U.S. salary and procurement costs are orders of magnitude higher than China’s, for example. But China’s military manpower is about 50 percent greater than ours, and it has a fighter fleet four-fifths as large.

And...

Third, the Pentagon has so much inefficiency and waste that sizable cuts won’t jeopardize our fighting capability.

Of course there is waste and inefficiency. These are being targeted in the $450 billion of additional cuts over 10 years — beyond savings from Iraq and Afghanistan — that President Obama and Congress agreed to this year... But like most bureaucratic organizations, the Pentagon will always have some waste. It’s a myth that it all can be surgically removed without weakening the military.

Most important:

By itself, defense spending does not ensure that our national power will be wisely or effectively deployed. This depends on our civilian and military leaders. But squeezing defense will limit these leaders’ choices and expose U.S. troops to greater risk...

...Obama repeatedly pledges to maintain America’s strength, but the existing cuts may do otherwise. Even before these, defense spending was headed below 3 percent of national income, the lowest level since 1940.

COMMENT:   The figures Samuelson cites are just jolting.  I think most Americans would be deeply disturbed to see where this nation is heading on national defense.  It is time for a national conversation, with the narrative seized and dominated by Reagan Republicans.

It's been noted by others that no war ever started because America was too strong.  We should remember that when we contemplate the "cost" of national defense.  Some things are priceless.

October 31, 2011       Permalink

OBAMA'S FOREIGN MYTHS – AT 8:07 A.M. ET:  Have you noticed that the Obamans are trying to divert attention away from their candidate's sorry domestic record by tooting horns over his "successes" in foreign policy?  The Republicans have done little to answer, so once again we have the Democrats providing the "narrative."  But Michael Barone knocks down the myths a-building in the White House that we have some kind of international star in the Oval Office.  What we have is an amateur:

Obama seemed to think that the replacement of an uncouth Texan by a nuanced black American would convert determined enemies of the United States -- a supposition that is one of those irritable mental gestures that pass for thought in the faculty lounge.

And in the lounges of our major news organizations.

Iran is run by a regime that has been committing acts of war against us for more than 30 years, starting with the seizure of diplomats -- a violation of the first rule of international law. North Korea is run by a gangster regime that starves its people and tries to prevent all contact with the outside world.

Why must Barone upset us with such truths?

Astonishingly, foreign policy analyst Fareed Zakaria, writing in the Washington Post after a trip to Tehran, calls for Obama to "return to his original approach and test the Iranians to see if there is any room for dialogue and agreement."

Zakaria claims that Obama consults him on foreign policy.  I hope that is an exaggeration, for Zakaria, a CNN star, is simply an old leftist with a pleasant style. 

What I see in Obama's foreign policy is a retreat from the dreamy assumptions on which he campaigned to a reluctant and stumbling reversion in many areas to policies resembling those of George W. Bush.

Without ever crediting Bush.  In the faculty lounge, that's close to plagiarism.

He took a brave but long-delayed decision to double down in Afghanistan and has authorized drone attacks on terrorists in Pakistan and Yemen that some of his appointees would have denounced as criminal if Bush were still in office.

But he is also sharply cutting back the defense budget and his failure to negotiate a troop presence in Iraq could have dreadful consequences. Meanwhile, Defense Secretary Leon Panetta, like his predecessor Robert Gates, does his best to proclaim that American resolve is firm and can be counted on.

They seem to understand what Obama may not yet accept, that as the world's leading economic and military power the United States is unlikely to be loved, regardless of whether our president is a baseball team owner from Texas or a community organizer from Chicago.

The best we can expect among many of the elites and peoples of the globe is to be respected. And as Machiavelli argued long ago, if you have to choose it is better to be respected than to be loved.

COMMENT:  That is correct, but liberals need lots of love.  They like to be enveloped in a kind of glow, with the sound of sixties guitars strumming in the background.  "All we are saying is...give peace a chance."

It is respect we require, and that means being, at times, feared.  There's nothing wrong with that, as long as it's your enemies who fear you.  And despite all the adolescent-level applause Obama has gotten around the world, the fact is that our allies can no longer trust us to carry out our commitments, and that will inevitably lead some of them to hedge their bets when deciding whose side they're on.

Not a great legacy.

October 31, 2011       Permalink

CAIN'S MONDAY – AT 7:27 A.M. ET:  Political news today is likely to be dominated by the charge that Herman Cain was accused of sexual improprieties in the 1990s by two women, who were then paid to go away.

This is sleazy stuff, but Cain must deal with it forthrightly.  I watched Geraldo Rivera interview one of Cain's spokesmen last night, and the interview was catastrophic for Cain.  The spokesman neither confirmed nor denied the story, which is not what the public wants to hear.  Even Geraldo became exasperated, trying to explain how suspicious the spokesman's answers were.

The fact that it hasn't been denied makes me assume that there's at least some truth to the story.  That does not mean Herman Cain is guilt of sexual harassment.  He could have dealt with false or exaggerated stories by paying off the women in question, a common practice in large businesses.  But once again we have a conservative black man under attack on the sex charge. 

Some journalists will undoubtedly try to find the women who made the accusations.  Without their physical presence, and oral confirmation, before cameras, that they were harassed and were compensated, the story will lose steam.  Also, there could be a backlash, a sympathy vote for Cain.

This will be a facinating day.  I wouldn't be surprised if Cain came out of it even stronger, but that depends on how he handles this first crisis of his campaign.

October 31, 2011       Permalink