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MAY 19,  2011

HISTORY IS MADE – AT 10:38 P.M. ET:  Arnold Schwarznegger has put his return to Hollywood on hold, following his admission that he'd fathered a love child.  This may well be the first time in Hollywood history that any film star has put anything on hold because of sexual infidelity.  Mark the date.  You'll want to tell your children someday.  From the New York Post:

LOS ANGELES -- Former California governor Arnold Schwarzenegger is delaying his return to Hollywood after admitting he fathered a love child with a former employee, The Sacramento Bee reported Thursday.

"At the request of Arnold Schwarzenegger we asked Creative Artists Agency to inform all his motion picture projects currently underway or being negotiated to stop planning until further notice," a rep for Schwarzenegger said in a statement.

The agents at Creative Artists probably stood around the cash register and wept openly. 

"Governor Schwarzenegger is focusing on personal matters and is not willing to commit to any production schedules or timelines. This includes 'Cry Macho,' 'The Terminator' franchise and other projects under consideration. We will resume discussions when Governor Schwarzenegger decides," the statement added.

Given the nature of those movies, maybe it's best that Arnold stay away.  Ronald Reagan was also governor of California.  He stayed in politics.

When these "personal matters" came up during the golden age of Hollywood, a compliant press, and powerful Hollywood columnists, kept them secret.  Loretta Young was able to bear a child by Clark Gable without the public ever getting a hint of the reality.  She was just "taking time off.  Paulette Goddard could "live in sin" with Charlie Chaplin, and it never made print. 

We wanted stars to be role models.  Some of them weren't, but we never knew.

May 19, 2011       Permalink

WHAT WAS LEFT OUT – AT 10:26 P.M. ET:  President Obama delivered his much-anticipated and overhyped speech on the Middle East today.  We will examine some of the contents tomorrow, but Investors Business Daily got it right when it noted what the president left out.

The president's policy speech lauded changes in the Mideast during the so-called Arab Spring. Curiously missing was anything about ominous nuclear developments in the Muslim world.

We're happy to see President Obama embrace President Bush's idea that the Mideast status quo is not satisfactory. Changes are due.

But during his lengthy address, billed as a comprehensive new policy toward the Muslim world, Obama barely mentioned the biggest threat of all: the growing nuclear threat of Pakistan and Iran, which may soon metastasize to other countries in the region.

Even as Obama spoke, the nuclear genie was leaving the bottle. Iran's state radio on Wednesday announced that its Bushehr nuclear plant, built illicitly with Russian help, is now "operational." This is a first for Iran — and a watershed in its bid to gain nuclear weapons.

Though its oil reserves are the third largest on Earth, Iran insists it needs Bushehr to generate energy. Maybe so. But color us skeptical. It won't be long before Iran ascends the nuclear learning curve and builds a weapon.

Equally alarming, Pakistan has built a massive new weapons-grade nuclear reactor — its fourth — at Khushab. The British Daily Mail calls it "the fastest-growing nuclear program in the world."

COMMENT:  Political change in the Mideast will come and go, but nuclear weapons, once developed, are forever.  And the Mideast, tragically, is drifting further toward extremism, despite the hope of the "Arab spring."  This is not Europe.  There is no democratic tradition. 

Pakistan isn't in the Mideast, but it shares the brotherly characteristics of nuttiness and instability, and has a large nuclear weapons program.

As Americans, we must become more aware of the dangers the "Islamic bomb" poses to us, directly.  It doesn't take an intercontinental missile to deliver the bomb.  A nuclear weapon, stored in the hold of a rickety 60-year-old freighter, and sailed into an American harbor with a suicide crew on board, can take care of the ugly business.

And yet, the president said little about it.  Maybe he thought it would "offend" the sensitive Muslims, apparently one of the worst crimes in the world.

May 19, 2011       Permalink

NEWT CRASHES AND BURNS – AT 9:59 A.M. ET:  There's the old saying that there are no second acts in American life.  That's not true, of course.  Many who fail go on to succeed.   But in politics, with the great exception of Richard Nixon, successful second acts are very hard to come by.  And Nixon's second-act final curtain did not come down gracefully.

Now it seems to be Newt's turn.  The former speaker entered the presidential race just days ago, and has already crashed and burned.  Toby Harnden, the sharp-eyed observer of American politics for London's Telegraph, reports on the obituaries already being written:

Newt Gingrich's presidential campaign, barely a week old, is already in trouble after he was forced to apologise for launching an attack on a rising star from his own Republican party.

Mr Gingrich also suffered embarrassment when it was revealed that he had at one point owed up to $500,000 (£309,000) to the jewellery store Tiffany, apparently for items bought for his third wife Callista.

The former Speaker of the House of Representatives has flatly refused to talk about the credit card bill.

Both incidents appeared to confirm what even his supporters fear – that he is too undisciplined and has too much personal and political baggage to be a credible contender for the Republican nomination.

They also underline Republican concerns about the strength of its primary field a year ahead of the presidential election. No single candidate has broken out of the pack and several senior figures have opted not to run.

COMMENT:  All correct.  Newt's role is that of an idea man within the party, but, as I saw in a small meeting he addressed last year, he's all over the place, has little control of his message, and throws out proposals without thinking them through.  He is not going to be nominated, and I would doubt that he'll be in the race very long.

May 19, 2011       Permalink

BELLWETHER – AT 9:20 A.M. ET:  Ohio is one of the most critical states in a presidential election, and often an indicator of which way the country will go.  The president's standing in Ohio shows just how tough, and close, the 2012 presidential election is likely to be.  From The Hill:

Voters in Ohio are split on whether President Obama deserves a second term, according to a poll released Thursday.

Obama's job approval/disapproval rating saw a slight uptick to 49-45 percent in May from 47-48 percent in April, a Quinnipiac University poll shows. But when asked if Obama deserves to be reelected, registered voters split 47-47 percent.

The president also fares worse against a generic Republican: Forty-one percent say they would vote for Obama compared to 39 percent who would vote for a Republican, a statistical tie. In April, Obama led a generic GOP foe 41-34 percent, a seven-point margin. Fifty-five percent of voters also disapprove of Obama's handling of the economy.

And...

The poll indicates that, early in the campaign season, Ohio's electoral votes are up for grabs. The state typically serves as a key swing state during presidential elections and whoever wins it often wins the general election.

Quinnipiac's assistant polling director Peter A. Brown also noted that Obama did not receive the so-called "bin Laden bounce" — the approval rating surge he saw nationally after the killing of the al Qaeda leader — in Ohio.

COMMENT:  The GOP must take states like Ohio, and Virginia, if it is to recapture the presidency.  The polls are close in both those bellwether states.  This next year, on a presidential politics level, could be brutal.

May 19, 2011       Permalink

ALMOST MAKES US SYMPATHIZE WITH OBAMA – AT 8:48 A.M. ET:   Apparently the president of the United States isn't sufficiently left-wing to pass muster with the radical establishment.  Among its loudest members is African-American "intellectual" Cornel West, once of Harvard, now of Princeton, who feels slighted by the nation's first black president.  This is who's teaching your children.  From the fashionable Boston Globe:

Cornel West, a Princeton University professor and leading black intellectual, is harshly criticizing President Obama, a candidate he once supported but now calls “a black mascot of Wall Street oligarchs and a black puppet of corporate plutocrats.”

We've noticed Obama's deep commitment to corporations.  Not.

West, a former Harvard University professor, said during an interview with the website Truthdig posted yesterday that the president has not been true to his race.

“I think my dear brother Barack Obama has a certain fear of free black men,” West said. “It’s understandable. As a young brother who grows up in a white context, brilliant African father, he’s always had to fear being a white man with black skin. All he has known culturally is white…When he meets an independent black brother, it is frightening.”

Can you imagine the reaction if a white "intellectual" said this?  West started his academic career with some apparently respectable papers, but has since deteriorated into a nutbag who left Harvard after then-President Larry Summers broadly hinted that he might do a bit more work.

The White House did not have an immediate comment. West did not respond to messages left at his office.
Republicans have questioned Obama’s origins — to the point where he felt compelled to release his long-form birth certificate to prove he was born in Hawaii — but West also uses Obama’s past to draw into question the president’s racial bearings.

“Obama, coming out of Kansas influence, white, loving grandparents, coming out of Hawaii and Indonesia, when he meets these independent black folk who have a history of slavery, Jim Crow, Jane Crow and so on, he is very apprehensive,” West said. “He has a certain rootlessness, a deracination. It is understandable.”

West is a professor at Princeton's Center for African American Studies and is the author of "Race Matters." He was a professor at Harvard, but left in 2002 amid quarrels with then-president Lawrence Summers.

West also recounts personal slights — that his phone calls didn’t get returned, and that he couldn’t get a ticket with his mother and brother to the inauguration.

Oh, so that's it.  It usually comes down to personal grudges.  If only mom and bro had gotten those tickets, why, old Cornel might be Obama's biggest fan.

West has become a silly fool, and early retirement might be the medically approved cure.

May 19, 2011       Permalink

STRAUSS-KAHN IS OUT – AT 8:36 A.M. ET:  From the Washington Post:

Dominique Strauss-Kahn, the managing director of the International Monetary Fund, who is facing attempted rape charges in New York, announced his resignation late Wednesday night.

In a statement, Strauss-Kahn said he is resigning “with infinite sadness” in an effort “to protect this institution.”

The resignation, while providing clarity to an organization reeling from the accusations facing its managing director, immediately sets off a scramble about who will lead the powerful organization and what that will mean for the global economy.

Under Strauss-Kahn, the Washington-based IMF has taken a muscular approach toward fixing Europe’s financial woes, advocating financial bailouts for ailing nations such as Greece and Portugal. Without Strauss-Kahn at the helm, Europe is at risk of losing a key source of financial support in its efforts to contain the debt crisis buffeting the continent.

COMMENT:  The reason is that the "third world" is demanding that the new director come from one of its countries, meaning they want a bigger chunk of IMF cash.  Traditionally, the head of the IMF has been European, and that is being challenged.

The charge to have a third-worlder head the fund is being led by South Africa, which is ironic, considering the charges against Strauss-Kahn.  South Africa has one of the highest rape rates in the world, as well as one of the highest overall crime rates.  But what are little things like that when one is considered a great moral leader.

Obviously, if the IMF could not devote its current level of attention to Europe, and several European nations slip into bankruptcy, that could have an impact on the American economy as well.  So we've got a dog in this hunt.

May 19, 2011       Permalink

MAY 18,  2011

SPEAKING OF POLLS AND THE PRESIDENCY – AT 11:28 P.M. ET:  No matter how many times he says he's not running, New Jersey Governor Chris Christie is repeatedly mentioned by the Great Mentioner, and is the choice of many Republicans looking for a dynamic candidate.

But Christie is running into some headwinds at home.  He's a great governor, and great governors – those who make the tough decisions – will make enemies.  He has a hard-charging personality that may not wear well over time.  From the New York Post:

TRENTON, N.J. -- For the first time in over a year, the ranks of New Jersey residents who disapprove of Gov. Chris Christie have surpassed those who approve of his performance, The Wall Street Journal reported Wednesday.

Public opinion on the Republican governor remains closely divided. According to a new poll from Monmouth University/NJ Press Media, 47 percent of New Jersey residents approve of Christie while 49 percent disapprove -- a gap well within the poll's margin of error.

But the trendlines show the governor holding steady with supporters while undecided residents are moving into the anti-Christie camp. Since Monmouth's last poll, conducted in February, disapproving respondents swelled by nine percentage points. Those with no opinion dropped by seven points.

COMMENT:  This will not dent the enthusiasm for Christie among national Republicans, but it is a warning sign.  Most Americans don't know Christie, and his very un-presidential style – some would say it's boxing ring lite – may turn off those unfamiliar with the superb manner in which he's tackled New Jersey's problems.

May 18, 2011       Permalink 

GUTSY OR NOT GUTSY, THAT IS THE QUESTION – AT 9:07 P.M. ET:  The hype machine that went into action after the bin Laden raid described President Obama's decision to approve the raid as a "gutsy call," this apparently to portray the commander-in-chief as a bit tougher than your average community organizer.  But many Americans beg to differ, as Fox reports in a new poll: 

American voters are evenly divided over how tough a decision it was for President Barack Obama to order a Navy Seal raid on Usama bin Laden’s Pakistan compound this month.

In fact, while 48 percent of voters think signing off on the raid was a “gutsy move” by Obama, some 49 percent think it was a “no-brainer” decision any president would have made under the circumstances.

By two-to-one Democrats are more likely to think the decision to go after bin Laden was a gutsy move (65-33 percent). For Republicans it’s the reverse -- they are more than twice as likely to call it a no-brainer (69-28 percent).

Independent voters are more likely to say it wasn’t such a big deal than to see it as a gutsy call (52-43 percent).
These are just some of the findings from a Fox News poll released Wednesday.

However, the president's overall rating has improved, showing how tough it will be to bring him down in next year's election.

Overall, President Obama’s job performance ratings have improved since the killing of bin Laden. Currently 55 percent of voters approve and 41 percent disapprove. Before the raid, 47 percent approved and 47 percent disapproved (25-27 April 2011).

The president’s job rating jumped not only among Democrats and independents, but also among GOP voters. Some 19 percent of Republicans approve of the president’s performance in the new poll, up from 11 percent (April 25-27). Obama received a similar bump among his party faithful, as 88 percent of Democrats approve, up from 80 percent previously.

Among independents voters the president’s approval climbed 5 percentage points to 43 percent. Still, nearly half of independents -- 49 percent -- disapprove.

COMMENT:  The fact is, presidents have at their disposal the power to make decisions and take actions that can improve their poll ratings, sometimes enough to win an election.  This president, trained in Chicago politics, knows that elections are about winning, not about theoretical positions. 

His ratings are likely to settle down after the bin Laden glow runs its course.  But don't be surprised if the Obama political operation has other tricks to pull.  Contrast please with a Republican Party trying to find a candidate who can arouse some enthusiasm instead of mild approval.  There are 308 million people in America.  There's got to be someone.  If he's underage, we can use makeup and lighting.

May 18, 2011       Permalink

GREAT WORK – AT 9:09 A.M. ET:  We love to celebrate American achievement here.  And one of the great corporate achievements in recent memory is the resurrection of Apple Computer.  The company was dying only 15 years ago, before it brought back its co-founder, Steve Jobs, and let him dream. 

Now Apple is considered one of the leading American brand names.  And nothing symbolizes that better than the Apple Store, which will be ten years old tomorrow.

(CNN) -- It started with one store at Tysons Corner Center in Virginia, just outside of Washington.
Ten years and more than 300 stores later, it's become a retailing venture unique in the world of consumer electronics.

The Apple retail store, the stylized and shiny public face of the Cupertino, California-based gadget giant, turns 10 on Thursday.

It's a marketing strategy that few other companies could pull off, analysts say -- one powered as much by Apple's heralded (some would say overhyped) focus on style and presentation as by its products themselves.
But as the 2000s were just dawning, it was far from a sure thing.

"Around the time Apple started to roll out, Gateway's products were going the other way," said Adam Hanft, CEO of marketing and branding firm Hanft Projects, referring to the PC makers (they of the cowhide-designed boxes) who eventually gave up on their own retail-store model in 2004.

"If you go back and look at what all the pundits said, they all thought Apple was crazy to get into the retailing business."

Until then, the consumer technology model was fairly well set. Hardware manufacturers made computers and other gadgets, which were sold alongside their competitors at electronics and big-box retail stores. Picking up the cost of overhead, and gambling that shoppers would patronize a store with only one company's products, was considered risky.

By the end of the 2010 fiscal year, Apple had opened 317 retail stores, 233 in the United States and 84 in Europe, Asia and other countries, according to Ticonderoga Securities, which studies the company.

Apple stores across the world host long lines of acolytes -- er, shoppers -- with the retail launch of every high-profile new gadget, such as an iPhone or iPad. The stores earned roughly $3.2 billion, about 13% of Apple's total sales, in 2010, Ticonderoga said.

COMMENT:  I visit our local Apple Store often.  It is always jammed.  There's a SONY store in the same mall, and it gets little traffic.  Apple just has the dynamic of style and innovation written all over it.  It also has the sense to hire tech wizards who stand at something called the Genius Bar, and give free technical help to all Apple owners.

Have a dream, take a risk.  It's the story of free enterprise.  It doesn't always work out.  In this case, it worked out spectacularly.  Congratulations to Steve Jobs and Apple for establishing an American institution.

May 18, 2011       Permalink 

OH REALLY?  Germany is, presumably, one of our most loyal allies.  But there are some in Germany who clearly don't see it that way.  This story, from Spiegel International, is disturbing:

Angela Merkel's government has come under pressure following the deaths of German Islamists in Waziristan through American drone strikes. Berlin has responded by restricting the type of information that German intelligence agencies may pass on to their US counterparts...

...The deadly air strike on Oct. 4, 2010 marked a turning point in the cooperation between German and American intelligence agencies. Bünyamin E. was the first German citizen to be killed in an American drone attack. His fate has both legal and political consequences and has placed the German government under pressure. While American President Barack Obama, who ordered the massive use of air power in the first place, is being celebrated in Washington following the killing of al-Qaida leader Osama bin Laden, different standards are being applied in Germany.

The discussion centers on the question of what types of information German intelligence officials should be allowed to pass on to their American partners, and whether this information could lead to the deaths of German citizens.

Apparently, Germany sees German Islamists in Pakistan as pretty much the same as other German citizens. 

"There are many indications that the German government is contributing to these attacks," suspects Green Party politician Hans-Christian Ströbele, who is a member of parliament. "This would make it partially responsible for such killings." And Wolfgang Grenz, the deputy general secretary of Amnesty International Germany, is demanding that the German government "comment on the possible role of the Federal Criminal Police Office (BKA) and the Federal Office for the Protection of the Constitution (BfV, Germany's domestic intelligence agency) in preparing the intelligence used for American drone attacks in Pakistan."

As an initial consequence, then-Interior Minister Thomas de Maizière, a member of Chancellor Angela Merkel's center-right Christian Democratic Union (CDU), had his staff prepare a report examining the legality and constitutionality of the practice of passing on information. The minister said privately that he was surprised that there was not more public discussion of the sensitive issue.

COMMENT:  This is complete craziness.  It reflects the self-righteous streak in German politics, which exists to help the country live down its past.  The left in Germany is particularly hypocritical, and has a soft spot for enemies of the United States.

Angela Merkel has been a good friend to this country.  But there are others in Germany who want to chart a more independent course.  Part of that course has been to continue a substantial trade with Iran and to value economic interests in the Mideast above democracy.

Germany may well be slipping into old patterns.   It will end up losing.

May 18, 2011       Permalink 

SIGN OF A CRISIS – AT 8:28 A.M. ET:  A few days ago we wrote of the Republican dilemma – the fact that the party has such strengths, is poised to do well next year, but lacks a presidential candidate who can take on the campaigning skills of Barack Obama.

The GOP establishment is increasingly aware of the problem, and is looking for a man on a white horse, or a Harley, or anything with wheels.  From The Politico:

Top Republicans are increasingly convinced that President Barack Obama will be easily reelected if stronger GOP contenders do not emerge, and some are virtually begging Indiana Gov. Mitch Daniels to add some excitement to the slow-starting nomination race.

It’s a sign of the GOP’s straits that the party is depending on the bland, wonkish Daniels for an adrenaline boost.

Boy, is that ever correct.  Daniels has been a fine governor.  He might make a fine president.  But he's never been accused of being Mr. Excitement.  I was part of a small group in New York that heard him speak last year.  Believe me, if Mitch Daniels gave a speech in a cemetery, the residents would become more dead. 

But interviews this week with longtime party activists and strategists made clear that many in the Republican establishment are unnerved by a field led by Mitt Romney, who could have trouble confronting Obama on health reform; Tim Pawlenty, who has yet to ignite excitement; Jon Huntsman, who may be too moderate to get the nomination; and Newt Gingrich, weighed down by personal baggage and a sense that he is a polarizing figure from the 1990s.

Despairing Republican lobbyists say their colleagues don’t ask, “Who do you like?” but instead, “Who do we back?”

“It’s not that they’re up in arms,” said a central player in the GOP money machine. “It’s just that they’re depressed.”

They have every right to be, and there is no known therapy for the problem, except an unavailable one with the name Reagan.

Daniels will bring administrative and economic skills to the race, but how he plays outside Indiana is a serious question mark.  He has some personal marital baggage and no known foreign policy. 

Republicans have a high mountain to climb in the 2012 presidential race.  Obama, with all his presidential failures, is a superb campaigner.  The process on the GOP side has got to be thrown wide open, with careful consideration given to young, spirited leaders, part of the next generation.  We need that generation now.  We cannot wait.

May 18, 2011       Permalink

INTRODUCIN' – AT 7:52 A.M. ET:  We thought we'd report this so you know where to send your congratulations and gifts.  From CNN:

(CNN) -- An Egyptian who was once a Special Forces officer has been chosen "caretaker" leader of al Qaeda in the wake of Osama bin Laden's death, according to a source with detailed knowledge of the group's inner workings.

Al Qaeda's interim leader is Saif al-Adel, who has long played a prominent role in the group, according to Noman Benotman. Benotman has known the al Qaeda leadership for more than two decades. He was once a leader of the Libyan Islamic Fighting Group (LIFG), a militant organization that used to be aligned with al Qaeda, but in recent years renounced al Qaeda's ideology.

Benotman told CNN that based on his personal communications with militants and discussions on jihadist forums, al-Adel, also known as Muhamad Ibrahim Makkawi, had been chosen interim chief of al Qaeda because the global jihadist community had grown restive in recent days about the lack of a formal announcement of a successor to bin Laden.

I can understand that.  You always want someone to look up to, and someone who knows how to fly planes into buildings.

According to Benotman, this was not a decision of the formal shura council of al Qaeda, because it is currently impossible to gather them in one place, but was rather the decision of six to eight leaders of al Qaeda in the Afghanistan-Pakistan border area. Al-Adel was already one of the top leaders of the group.

COMMENT:  One of the great myths that some have lived by is that Al Qaeda was about bin Laden.  Al Qaeda is about an ideology, and Americans still haven't absorbed the implications of that ideology.  In part this is due to the nature of mainstream media reporting, which emphasizes what people are against, rather than what they're for.  Recall that, after 9-ll, some American hand-wringers wandered around asking, "Why do they hate us?"  It's one of those questions the left loves to ask, for it puts the focus on our alleged sins.  What we should have been asking is, "What do these people stand for?  What kind of world do they want?" 

If we apply those questions to the current "revolutions" in the Arab world, the answers that come back can be pretty frightening. 

Al Qaeda survives bin Laden because its ideology drives it.

May 18,  2011     Permalink