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MARCH 31,  2011

THIS IS CALLED A CAMPAIGN ISSUE – AT 9:53 P.M. ET:  Gas at the pump, gas at the pump, who's happy about gas at the pump?  Certainly not the Obama White House.  From the Washington Times:

Feeling pain at the pump? Gas prices have doubled since Mr. Obama took office. According to the GasBuddy gasoline price tracking web site, the price of a gallon of regular gas was around $1.79 when Mr. Obama took office. Today the national average is $3.58. The lowest average price in the continental United States is $3.31 in Tulsa Oklahoma, the highest is $4.14 in Santa Barbara, CA. Four-dollar-a-gallon gas has arrived on average throughout California, and a number of other states are headed in that direction.

Consumer price index (CPI) figures from February show an unadjusted 12 month gasoline inflation rate of 19.2%, but in the last month alone prices jumped 6.8%, probably because of oil price increases due to instabilities in the Middle East. If the trend continues, gas prices would double again within a year. 100% gasoline price inflation is nothing to brag about, but imagine Mr. Obama going into the 2012 election having to explain why gas costs $7.00 a gallon. I'm sure the White House would spin it as one of their "Green" initiatives.

COMMENT:  This is one of the things that shortened the adventurous political life of Jimmy Carter, whose administration Obama's often resembles.  It may be that there is no short-term solution for soaring energy prices, but Obama can take some dramatic action, like making exploration for oil in the U.S. a high priority, and easing restrictions on offshore drilling.  We fear that the theoreticians and environmental religionists in his party will make that impossible.

These prices can cost Obama the election...assuming Republicans can come up with an alternate, fast, and dramatic energy plan that actually lowers prices and increases supply. 

March 31, 2011     Permalink

OBAMA SQUEEZED IN NEW 2012 POLL – AT 8:48 P.M. ET:   Obama is shown to be quite vulnerable in a 2012 matchup against candidates with real names.  From CNN:

(CNN)-Former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee would go toe-to-toe with President Obama if he sought the presidency in 2012, according to a new Fairleigh Dickinson University survey. Among registered voters nationwide, 46 percent said they'd vote for Huckabee and the same number would re-elect the president.

Former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney, who is also considering another presidential run, only trailed the president by one percentage point. Voters favored the president 44 to 43 percent over Romney, who wrote a Wednesday op-ed attacking Obama's treatment of unemployment and job creation in USA Today.

And though he's declared his non-candidacy for president, New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie also performs well against the sitting president whom he trails by six percentage points. Registered voters chose Obama 46 to 40 percent over Christie. The governor has adamantly denied an ambition to helm the Republican ticket in 2012, but helped the House GOP earn $10 million in a DC fundraiser Wednesday night.

Other possible contenders for the Republican nomination saw less favorable results in a hypothetical matchup with Obama. More than half the nation preferred the president over former Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin - 54 to 34 percent. And Tim Pawlenty, who formally announced a presidential exploratory committee, fell behind Obama by 14 percentage points. Voters preferred the president 48 to 34 percent over the former Minnesota governor. Obama also led former House Speaker Newt Gingrich 52 to 37 percent in the theoretical race.

COMMENT:  What is striking in this poll is that Obama in only a few matchups makes it out of the 40s.  He is vulnerable.

What is also striking is that no Republican actually wins against Obama.  Now, of course, Obama is a far larger presence on TV screens than any GOP candidate, at least at the moment, and he has the advantages of incumbency.  But I think the numbers, which measure reasonably well-known personalities as Romney and Huckabee, show that the Republicans may have to look further.  There is a sizzle factor that is missing.

I'm not shocked by Sarah Palin's showing.  I've always liked her, but she has little support beyond her base.

The poll was conducted among registered voters.  A poll among likely voters would probably have shown Republicans somewhat stronger.

March 31, 2011      Permalink

SNIPPET OF THE DAY – AT 11:16 A.M. ET:

From the L.A. Times:  With movie theater attendance in the U.S. and Canada down a whopping 20% so far this year compared with 2010, cinema operators and some studio chiefs surprisingly agree on at least one cause: The movies haven't been very good.

For insights like this, some movie executive is paid $10-million a year. 

March 31, 2011      Permalink

OHIO FOLLOWS WISCONSIN – AT 9:46 A.M. ET:  Although there was less trauma, and far less theatricality, Ohio, following Wisconsin, has now passed legislation reining in the power of public-service unions.  A bill to that effect is about to be signed by Governor John Kasich.  It will be challenged in a public referendum:

COLUMBUS, Ohio — A drastic overhaul of Ohio's nearly 30-year-old collective-bargaining law cleared the legislature on Wednesday after nearly two months of contentious hearings, raucous protests and passionate debate.

Now the fight comes to your doorstep.

Republican Gov. John Kasich will sign Senate Bill 5, which will spark a voter referendum effort by Democrats and unions to defeat the bill by putting it before voters on the Nov. 8 ballot.

"This isn't over," House Democratic Leader Armond Budish, of Beachwood, said on the House floor before representatives approved it, 53-44. "We've just begun to fight, and we're going to fight like hell."

SB 5 opponents booed and chanted "Shame on you" and "Repeal" from the House chamber's balcony after the House approved the bill . Two banners also were draped over the balcony and a few profanities could be heard before House Speaker William G. Batchelder, a Medina Republican, had Highway Patrol officers clear the gallery, which held about 200 spectators.

Democrats and unions are expected to spend up to $20 million to defeat the measure, an amount Republicans admit will be tough to match.

Republicans hailed the bill's passage in the House as a victory for Ohio taxpayers who have had to foot the bill for costly public labor contracts negotiated through a collective-bargaining process that favors unions.

COMMENT:  One of the things not generally noted in the media is that Governor Scott Walker of Wisconsin and Governor John Kasich of Ohio are potential presidential candidates.  If either man can actually solve the desperate economic problems of his state, he becomes an instant star.   That is especially true of Kasich, who already is nationally known from his days as a TV commentator.  He also is governor of the swing state of Ohio.

Little by little, progress is being made in some states to provide some sanity to the issue of public-service employment.  We are certainly not anti-union here, but the idea of public-service unions negotiating with politicians they've helped put in power through campaign contributions is bizarre at best.

One state to watch is California, which is almost bankrupt.  Wisconsin and Ohio have Republican governors.  California has, in Jerry Brown, a Democratic governor holding, ironically, the same office he held in the 1970s and early 80s.  Will a Democrat be able to rein in union contracts?  It is exceptionally difficult for any Democrat to take on the interests that help support the Democratic Party.  However, Democrat Andrew Cuomo in New York has made a good start and is presenting a balanced budget.  Eyes are on Brown.

March 31, 2011      Permalink

SYRIA ON THE BRINK – AT 9:14 A.M. ET:  Syria, by orders of magnitude, is a far more important Mideast country than Libya.  It is at the heart of Arab civilization, but is also an ally of Iran.

There have, in the past weeks, been violent clashes in Syria between demonstrators and government forces, resulting in scores of deaths.   Yesterday, Syria's leader, Bashar Assad, delivered a speech to the Syrian people that essentially promised nothing, and seems to have only angered anti-government protesters even more.  The latest action by the Syrian regime is unlikely to tame that anger:

DAMASCUS - Syrian President Bashar Assad, facing a wave of demonstrations for greater freedoms, has set up a committee to look into replacing a decades-old emergency law with anti-terrorism legislation.

The state news agency SANA said on Thursday the panel would study and prepare "legislation including protecting the nation's security and the citizen's dignity and fighting terrorism, paving the way for lifting the emergency law."

It said the committee would complete its work by April 25, but gave no further details.

Repealing emergency law, used for decades to snuff out any opposition to monolithic Baath Party rule, has been a central demand of protesters who have held two weeks of demonstrations in which more than 60 people have been killed.

COMMENT:  Today is likely to be a quiet day in Syria.  It is tomorrow that we look to with anticipation.  Friday is the most important protest day in the Arab world, the day when people attend mosques, then congregate for political activity afterward. 

The question is whether Syria will explode tomorrow, with the government reacting with brute force.  If that happens, it can profoundly change the future of the Middle East.  Syria is critical to any peace with Israel, and essentially controls Lebanon.  All eyes will be on Syria tomorrow.

The Assad family  – Bashar's father preceded him as president – has a history of extreme brutality toward the Syrian people.  Thousands were killed under daddy's regime.  So far Bashar hasn't given an inch.

March 31, 2011       Permalink

CONFUSION OVER LIBYA – AT 8:39 A.M. ET:  The situation involving Libya can best be described this morning as confused.  Yesterday saw the defection of some high-level Libyan officials, but also saw government forces pushing the rebels back.

At the same time there is an increasing, and increasingly anxious, debate in Washington over just who the rebels are.  Our intelligence is, as usual, thoroughly inadequate, and some members of Congress and observers are warning that the people we're helping may turn out to have Al Qaeda connections.  CNN reports on the latest:

Tripoli, Libya (CNN) -- NATO took sole command of air operations in Libya on Thursday as CIA operatives worked the field to connect with rebel fighters who have seen their surge toward Tripoli impeded.

The NATO mission -- called Operation Unified Protector-- includes an arms embargo, a no-fly zone and "actions to protect civilians and civilian centers," the alliance said Thursday.

It follows a U.N. Security Council resolution allowing member states to take all necessary measures -- with the exception of foreign occupation -- to protect civilians under the threat of attack in Libya.

Over the weekend, CNN reported that rebels had taken al-Brega, Ras Lanuf and Bin Jawad and reached a town just east of Sirte. But in the last three days, opposition fighters have been pushed back eastward.

There are reports that the U.S. is considering supplying arms to the rebels. 

While U.S. and British officials say no decision has been made about whether to arm the opposition, a U.S. intelligence source said the CIA is in the country to increase the "military and political understanding" of the situation.

"Yes, we are gathering intel firsthand, and we are in contact with some opposition entities," the source told CNN.

COMMENT:  Remember, about a week ago, how many people were saying that this story would end quickly?  It isn't ending quickly.  We hope not, but the military operations in which we're involved can go on for a very long time, with no guarantee of the outcome.

A word about CNN:  We have been properly critical of some of their reporting in the past, and there's no question that CNN leans left.  But its reporting on the recent upheavals in the Mideast has, I think, been quite good, and generally free of the usual ideological bias.  Some of the grown-ups at CNN, like Wolf Blitzer, have asserted themselves, and the news outlet has sought the wisdom of Fouad Ajami, often quoted here, who's raised the knowledge level of CNN by about 300 percent.

I suspect CNN's improvement is largely due to the departure of Christiane Amanpour, one of the most wildly overrated reporters in all of human history, who now is working her black magic at ABC.  She was CNN's chief international correspondent for many years, and the operation seems to have blossomed, both in content, and in attitude, in her absence. 

March 31, 2011       Permalink

SHREWD MOVE – AT 8:11 A.M. ET:  A few days after declaring that he was not running for president in 2012, and even discouraging talk of the vice presidency, new GOP Senator Marco Rubio of Florida has reportedly made a shrewd move that could place him at the center of Republican policymaking.  Bill Kristol at the Weekly Standard breaks the story:

THE WEEKLY STANDARD has obtained the text of a letter freshman senator Marco Rubio (R-Fla.) sent tonight to the Senate majority and minority leaders. In it, Rubio proposes that the Senate authorize the president’s use of force in Libya, and that the authorization state that the aim of the use of force should be the removal of the Qaddafi regime.

This is by far the boldest move Rubio has made—it’s perhaps the boldest move any freshman senator has made—in the three months since the beginning of the 112th Congress. Rubio is taking on those in his own party who wish to distance themselves from what they consider Obama’s war in Libya. He is answering critics of the war who have tried to cast a vague sense of illegitimacy over the action because Congress hasn’t explicitly authorized it. And Rubio is trying to push the administration into fully embracing regime change as an explicit goal, thus providing a compelling clarity for American military action—a clarity that he thinks will increase support for the effort at home and the chances of success on the ground.

This is a striking bid by a freshman senator to exercise foreign policy leadership, in the face of opposition from some in his own party and reluctance by the Obama administration. If he succeeds in galvanizing Republican support for the war and influencing the administration’s conduct of it, it will be a remarkable achievement.

COMMENT:  Remarkable move for Rubio, whom we like very much here.  Yes, he's inexperienced, but actually has far more high-level political experience than a certain Chicago politician had when he successfully ran for president in 2008.

Despite Rubio's pronouncements about 2012, don't count him out.  At least the guy has guts, and is as good a campaigner as Obama.

March 31, 2011     Permalink

MARCH 30,  2011

HARD TO MAKE THIS UP II – AT 9:48 P.M. ET:  Just read this, just read it.  It happened in Florida:

A 17-year-old girl was charged Friday with aggravated assault with a deadly weapon, unlawful possession of a firearm and battery after deputies say she pulled a gun on her mother during an argument.

Rachel Anne Hachero was upset because her mother wouldn't co-sign on a vehicle purchase, according to a Lee County Sheriff's Office report.

The teen's mother told investigators Hachero threatened to kill her when she refused to co-sign for the vehicle.

Hachero then confronted her mother at home with a gun and pistol-whipped her head, according to the report.

After pistol-whipping her mother, Hachero pointed the gun at her mother's head and stomach and told her she was going with her to sign for the car, according to the report.

The mother told investigators Hachero ordered her mother into the vehicle and demanded she drive to the dealership to sign for the car or she would shoot her.

Hachero and her mother then went to Sutherlin Nissan on South Tamiami Trail, where she had her mother sign for a 2004 black Nissan 350Z. Hachero left the dealership in the vehicle.

Now, drumroll, get this:

The mother told investigators she did not want to press charges against Hachero, because she had recently been accepted to several Ivy League colleges.

COMMENT:  Yup.  Those Ivies sure have high standards.  They're great judges of the best and the brightest.  And they apparently put great stress on the ability to pistol-whip mama.  Hey, it's a skill for the oppressed!

Fight fiercely Harvard.

March 30, 2011      Permalink

HARD TO MAKE THIS UP I – AT 9:20 P.M. ET:  You know all that stuff that the Mideast dictators hand out about "our dear, brotherly Palestinians"?  We've heard that nonsense for years.  Well, get this, from the Jerusalem Post:

Palestinian officials on Wednesday appealed to Arab leaders to stop inciting against them by accusing them of instigating unrest in their countries.

Huh?  The dear, brotherly Palestinians?

The appeal came after the Syrian authorities claimed that Palestinians were behind the recent wave of violence that hit the country.

The Pals are in good company.  Syria also blamed America and Israel.  They may also blame offshore drilling and slow 911 service.

Buthaina Shaaban, an advisor to Syrian President Bashar Assad, said last week that Palestinians had joined Muslim Brotherhood supporters in attacking residents of the cities of Latakia and Deraa.

The Libyan authorities had also made similar charges against Palestinians.

Government officials in Tripoli claimed that opposition forces have recruited many Palestinians living in Libya as mercenaries to fight against the regime.

In Amman, some Jordanians claimed last week that Palestinians were involved in anti-government protests that have swept through the kingdom in recent weeks. Pro-monarchy activists who attacked an anti-government rally in Amman last Friday shouted slogans against Palestinians, such as “Go back to the West Bank!,” eyewitnesses reported.

Oh, isn't that lovely?  They sound like Helen Thomas!  Oh, wait.  She wanted the Jews to go back to Poland and Germany.  Maybe everyone should go back, and the Mideast could be the world's greatest beach.

Palestinians expressed fear that the charges would be used by Arab regimes to justify harsh measures against them, first and foremost deportation.

They specifically fear a repeat of what happened after the first Gulf War in the early ’90s, when hundreds of thousands of Palestinians were deported from Kuwait and other Gulf countries for supporting Saddam Hussein.

Ah yes, the dear, brotherly Palestinians.

What a farce.

March 30, 2011       Permalink

WHERE OBAMA STANDS – AT 9:11 A.M. ET:  Not in a good place, according to a new Quinnipiac poll just out.  In fact, Mr. Obama's numbers have dipped to all-time lows.  From The Politico:

President Barack Obama’s approval rating and prospects for reelection have plunged to all-time lows in a Quinnipiac University poll released Wednesday.

Half of the registered voters surveyed for the poll think that the president does not deserve a second term in office, while 41 percent say he does. In another Quinnipiac poll released just four weeks ago, 45 percent said the president did not deserve reelection, while 47 percent said he did.

The decline in support for a second Obama term comes as his approval rating has dropped 4 percentage points since early March, landing at 42 percent – a record low – in the poll released Wednesday. His disapproval rating has risen from 46 percent to 48 percent.

The downward shift may in part be the result of dissatisfaction over U.S involvement in Libya, with 47 percent of those surveyed saying they oppose it. By a margin of 58 percent to 29 percent, registered voters said that Obama has not clearly stated U.S. goals for the mission.

COMMENT:  We stress, of course, that this is one poll.  Results will vary according to poll, but the president hasn't scored that well recently. 

It is quite possible, by the way, that the president is in even worse shape that the poll indicates.  It was taken among registered voters, not likely voters.  Surveys among likely voters tend to tilt even more toward the Republican side.

Polls at this stage of the 2012 campaign are very preliminary, as the Republicans haven't even chosen a candidate.  But the door is open for the right person.

March 30, 2011      Permalink

BIZARRE, MAN – AT 8:36 A.M. ET:  How many times have you heard "analysts" and "foreign-policy experts" inform us, based on their special wisdom and regular program of dental care, that if only we understood the "Arab street" and the culture of Middle Eastern peoples, we'd avoid all this unpleasantness. 

What these self-appointed geniuses never tell you is that opinion on the Arab street comes in large measure from what Arabs are fed over state-run propaganda channels.  They've had regular feedings for decades.  What are, for example, Syrians being told today, after days of rioting?  Get this - this is what the Syrian street is being given:

Syrian President Bashar Assad clung to power after protests, saying he is responsible for keeping stability, in a Wednesday speech to his parliament.

"I am speaking to you at an extraordinary moment," Assad said, "it is a test of our unity. These tests repeat themselves due to plots threatening our homeland."

The Syrian president explained that Deraa, where some of the bloodiest protests have taken place, "is in the forefront in confronting the Israeli enemy and defending the nation."

"No one can be defending and conspiring at the same time," he said, "this cannot happen. The people of Deraa do not have any responsibility in what has happened. We are all with Deraa."

"There is a plot to break Syria apart," Assad claimed. "It began with incitement on the internet and on Facebook, and moved on to the media and the street. We were able to stop the American-Israeli plot."

COMMENT:  Yup, it's a Facebook/American/Israeli plot.  Syrians cannot possibly have any legitimate complaints.  And thre are plenty of people who will believe this in Syria, and plenty of useful idiots in the West who will label it a "legitimate alternative narrative." 

You feed a diet like this to people for decades, or even centuries, and you have a backward, failing civilization steeped in conspiracy theories.  And that's what we're looking at.

March 30, 2011       Permalink

STANDOFF IN LIBYA – AT 8:25 A.M. ET:  There are no signs of regime change in Libya.  Rebels fighting Qaddafi's forces have been pushed back despite NATO air strikes.  From Fox:

BREGA, Libya -- Rebels retreated Wednesday from the key Libyan oil port of Ras Lanouf along the coastal road leading to the capital Tripoli after they came under heavy shelling from ground forces loyal to leader Muammar Qaddafi.

NATO planes flew over the zone where the heaviest fighting was under way and an Associated Press reporter at the scene heard explosions, indicating a new wave of airstrikes against Qaddafi's forces.

And...

With the help of NATO airstrikes earlier in the week, rebel who control the eastern half of Libya rapidly advanced westward on the main coastal highway that leads to Qaddafi's stronghold in the capital. The got within 60 miles of the city of Sirte, Qaddafi's hometown and a bastion of support for the longtime leader with a major military base.

At that point, they came under heavy bombardments by Qaddafi's ground forces, who outgun the rebels in every way -- in numbers, equipment and training.

COMMENT:  One of my fears here is that Obama, an amateur in military and foreign policy, may have been sold what other leaders have been sold – an air campaign.  But air campaigns alone very rarely are decisive, although they can certainly play a large role in the outcome of a conflict.  It is troops on the ground who make the ultimate difference.

Obama has pledged that no American ground troops will be involved in Libya.  It is hard to see Europeans placing their soldiers on the ground.  And the Arab states...forget it.

So what happens if the Libyan leader doesn't budge, and his troops hold off the rebels?  We may be facing that situation fairly soon.  This is a day-by-day struggle against a man who has been in power more than four decades, and clearly has a knack for clinging to his office.

March 30, 2011      Permalink

UNBELIEVABLE, INCREDIBLE – AT 7:47 A.M. ET:  Periodically, we like to pass on stories about Britain's National Health Service, as a warning of what socialized medicine eventually becomes.  Add to the National Health Service the regulations imposed by the European Union, and you have ingredients for disaster.  Consider this, from London's Telegraph:

The General Medical Council said current European rules represent a “serious cause of concern” and risk to patient safety by banning it from testing GPs’ language skills before they can start working here.

The regulator said it has some doctors on its books who "are not able to communicate in English" but could not prevent them seeking work here under European law.

It warned that bogus doctors from other countries may find their way into the NHS by presenting fake certificates or ID, because of a lack of security checks, or could hide the fact that they had been suspended from practising in their homeland.

Even genuine doctors from abroad may have little idea of how to carry out procedures that are standard in Britain, because there is no standard training, education or healthcare system.

The GMC’s strongly worded submission to the European Commission, which is reviewing the laws that allow free movement of medics across the continent, comes after the scandal of Daniel Ubani.

COMMENT:  Once again, the patient is last.  Who cares if people die, as long as political correctness and the party line are maintained?

We are going to have that here before long.  You can see it coming, and Barack Obama's Justice Department will be there to enforce the "rights" of "different cultures." 

Recently, in extraordinary statements, the heads of Britain, France and Germany declared that multiculturalism had failed in their countries.  It is unlikely, though, that the leftist elites who run the European Union's bureacracies really care.

March 30, 2011     Permalink