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JULY 13,  2011

SHORT TAKES ON THE DRIFTING WRECKAGE:

GOP SINKING IN DEBT TALKS – Apprehension is growing, as noted by A.B. Stoddard and Charles Krauthammer on Fox this evening, that the Republicans are losing control of the public narrative over the debt negotiations.  President Obama apparently stormed out of those talks today, in another adolescent outburst, but there's a feeling that he can shape the public perception to make Republicans look like rigid, selfish ideologists, interested more in politics and protecting their wealthy friends than in the nation.  The worriers are right.  Republicans are losing control, the party is divided, and the press will support Obama no matter what.  Frankly, the GOP's most influential negotiator, Majority Leader Eric Cantor, may lack the skills to control such a high-stakes negotiation.  The best solution may be a series of temporary measures to take us through the 2012 election, after which the parties can negotiate without electoral politics hanging over their heads.

NBC APOLOGIZES – NBC has now formally apologized to members of Congress for recently airing a recitation of the Pledge of Allegiance with the words "under God" taken out.  NBC conceded "a serious error in judgment" by a "small group of people" who have been "reprimanded."  But NBC misunderstands the issue.  The real question in play how a "small group of people" at a major network could make this mistake without realizing it was a mistake.  NBC, and other networks, have problems in the kinds of people they hire.  At one time networks understood the need to show respect for the nation and its basic values.  That understanding has faded with the years. 

OH THE AGONY, OH THE PAIN –  You've probably been reading about the big press scandal in Britain.  Rupert 
Murdoch's News Corporation, which also owns Fox News and the Wall Street Journal here, is being hammered because journalists at its London tabloid, News of the World, apparently hacked into the phones of news sources and ordinary citizens to get scoops.  As soon as the scandal broke, Murdoch closed News of the World, an extraordinary and commendable step.  But critics are unrelenting, and liberals here are now demanding a probe, without any evidence, to see if News Corporation engaged in the unsavory practice here.  No one is defending the hacking, but if you think this anguished uproar is about phone taps, I have a tax increase I'd like to sell you.  It's about Murdoch's conservative politics and the wish of the left to destroy Fox News.  The New York Times, a direct competitor to The Wall Street Journal, and CNN, a direct competitor to Fox News, are particularly delighted by the scandal, featuring it prominently every day.  The New York Times, of course, used classified information to "expose" a critical anti-terror program, and CNN made a deal with Saddam Hussein to go easy on him in exchange for access.  Where was the uproar in either case?

HOW TIMES CHANGE – Topps, the company that makes baseball trading cards, is creating a card for Christian Lopez, the guy who caught Derek Jeter's 3,000th hit, a home run.  I remember, as a kid, how we would buy packs of Topps gum for a nickel, throw away the gum, and keep the trading cards, always hoping we'd get a Brooklyn Dodger in the pack for that nickel.  Now we get...fans?  What comes next, the attendee who survived the most rain-outs?  Hey, I'll trade you a Christian Lopez for two cards with the rain-out guy.  My dream – a card honoring the parking-lot attendant who dented the most fenders.  You never know.  In 2045, that could be the hot one. 

July 13, 2011       Permalink

NEW ATTACKS IN MUMBAI – AT 10:36 P.M. ET:  Some 21 people were killed in terrorist attacks in Mumbai, India, today.  In November, 2008, the city was the target of terrorist attacks that killed 166 people.  From the Washington Post:

NEW DELHI — Three blasts ripped through Mumbai during rush hour Wednesday evening, killing at least 21 people and injuring more than 110, Indian officials said. The explosions, which officials described as a terrorist attack, targeted crowded areas of the city, India’s financial capital.

“The blasts occurred at about 6:45 p.m., within minutes of one other. Therefore, we infer that this was a coordinated attack by terrorists,” said P. Chidambaram, India’s home minister, speaking in New Delhi...

...One obvious suspect in the attacks Wednesday is Lashkar-i-Taiba, a violent Islamist group that Pakistan once sponsored as a proxy army against India and that is suspected of being behind the 2008 attacks, said former CIA officer Bruce Riedel, a senior fellow at the Brookings Institution. Another strong possibility, he said, would be an Indian-based Muslim extremist group, such as the Indian Mujahideen, which has been linked in the past to smaller-scale bombings.

“This one’s fairly hard to place,” Riedel said. “It has elements of sophistication, with multiple targets and coordinated attacks, which could suggest Lashkar, but it doesn’t have the large-scale ambition you saw in the 2008 attacks.”

COMMENT:  The blasts come at a time when American relations with Pakistan are at a low point, and this event won't improve them.  Both India and Pakistan are nuclear powers.  The attacks highlight the ability of terrorists to influence world events, even with small assaults.  If the blasts are traced to an Islamic group, as appears likely, they will also show that militant Islam is maintaining its violent pressure on free nations, pressure that will only increase amidst instability in the Arab world and Iran's march toward a nuclear weapon.

At the same time, a new poll shows American prestige declining in the Arab world.  From Nile Gardiner in London's Telegraph:

Today’s eye-opening Zogby poll for the Arab American Institute Foundation should be a wake-up call to the White House on its failing foreign policy. After two and a half years of bashing Israel, appeasing rogue regimes such as Iran and Syria, and promising a new era of relations with the Muslim world, Washington is now less popular in major Arab countries than it was when George W. Bush was in the White House.

Weakness doesn't sell.  We can only contemplate the damage Obama can do if he is given a second term, and can run wild without the need to plan for reelection.

July 13, 2011       Permalink

IRAN GETS EVEN MORE SCARY – AT 9:44 A.M. ET:  We have taken our eyes off the ball and are wrapped up in domestic financial issues, but the Iranians are pushing ahead, just as the Nazis did during our Great Depression.  The result may, for our children, be the same: 

(Reuters) - Iran is preparing to install centrifuges for higher-grade uranium enrichment in an underground bunker, diplomatic sources say, a development that is likely to add to Western worries about Tehran's atomic aims.

Yeah, I'd say so.  When you work in underground bunkers, it usually isn't to produce power to charge iPads.

Preparatory work is under way at the Fordow facility, tucked deep inside a mountain to protect it against any attacks, and machines used to refine uranium could soon be moved to the site near the clerical city of Qom, the sources said.

MacArthur said that all defeats begin with two words:  Too late.  I'm afraid it may be too late to stop Iran's nuclear weapon.  Obama has certainly been effective, hasn't he? 

The Islamic Republic said in June it would shift production of uranium enriched to 20 percent purity to Fordow from its main Natanz plant this year and triple output capacity, in a defiant response to charges that it is trying to make atomic bombs.

Tehran only disclosed the existence of Fordow two years ago after Western intelligence detected it and said it was evidence of covert nuclear activities. The facility has yet to start operating.

"They are preparing (for the centrifuges to be installed) in Fordow," one diplomatic source said.

Refined uranium can be used to fuel nuclear power reactors and also, if enriched to much higher levels, provide material for atomic arms.

COMMENT:  And what will our response be?  Well, among other things, Germany seems to be maintaining, and even increasing, its commercial trade with Iran.  And the Obama administration has hardly reacted at all. 

Iran is aiming to be the dominant power in the region.  At the present rate, it will probably succeed.  Which is one more powerful argument for denying the inept Obama a second catastrophic term.

July 13, 2011      Permalink

BUT BARACK IS ROLLING IN BUCKS – AT 9:08 A.M. ET:   New financial reports show a stunning haul for the president.  From The Politico:

The Obama campaign and the Democratic National Committee raised a combined $86 million between April and June, blowing past the $60 million goal set by both groups at the start of the fundraising quarter.

Obama campaign manager Jim Messina announced the total in a video released before dawn Wednesday, touting the 552,462 donors who contributed and claiming “more grassroots support at this point in the process than any campaign in political history.”

“We did this from the bottom up. We didn’t accept one single dollar from Washington lobbyists or special interest PACs,” Messina said. “We have reason to be proud of what we’ve built so far … Your job, my job, our job is to bring more people into this campaign.”

Of the $86 million raised, Messina said over $47 million went into the coffers of Obama for America and more than $38 million went to the DNC. The average donation was $69.

The $86 million raised for Obama’s reelection easily doubles – and nearly triples – all the major GOP candidates to announce so far, combined.

COMMENT:   Some may wonder why a president who really isn't doing very well can raise so much.  Well, first off, he's the president.  And presidents have built-in fundraising clout.  Second, Barack Obama is a cultural phenomenon.  There are so many Americans who've bought into his "dream" that they can't stand the idea of his being escorted out of the White House by the voters.  He's "our Barack," the symbol of a certain portion of the sixties generation and its cultural allies. 

Republicans must divide their current fundraising efforts among many candidates, and the list may even expand.  I have confidence they will ultimately do well in the fundraising business.  But for now Obama is still the star in the bank-deposit sweepstakes.

July 13, 2011        Permalink 

MICHELE SURGES – AT 8:58 A.M. ET:  A new Quinnipiac poll out this morning shows a surge for Michele Bachmann, who clearly is catching on in conservative circles.  From The Politico:

Michele Bachmann's polling surge isn't just for the early primary states: A Quinnipiac University poll released this morning shows the Minnesotan is now in second place nationally, taking 14 percent of the vote to Mitt Romney's 25 percent. Bachmann's support has more than doubled since June 8, when she was in sixth place with 6 percent of the vote.

Quinnipiac's results confirm, once again, that there's a big appetite among GOP voters for a more conservative alternative to Mitt Romney. Following Bachmann in the poll are two non-candidates: Sarah Palin, in third place with 12 percent of the vote, and Rick Perry, in fourth place with 10 percent.

Perry's number is, in some ways, just as striking as Bachmann's, given that he hasn't actually entered the presidential race and isn't as universally known.

The rest of the field appears to be spinning its wheels. Here's the rest of the lineup: Herman Cain at 6 percent, Ron Paul and Newt Gingrich at 5 percent, Tim Pawlenty and 3 percent, and Rick Santorum, Jon Huntsman and Thaddeus McCotter at 1 percent or less.

Especially in light of Bachmann's quick rise, it's getting to be past the point where the back-of-the-back candidates can say it's still too soon for their numbers to be cause for concern.

COMMENT:  Stories circulating say that Rick Perry hasn't yet made up his mind whether to run, and that he is still concerned whether he can build an organization and raise the cash this late in the game.  He has apparently, if sources are to be believed, given himself until Labor Day, start of September, to make a final decision.

July 13, 2011     Permalink

CALIFORNIA DREAMIN' – AT 8:35 A.M. ET:  Results are in for the special congressional election in Los Angeles to fill the seat vacated by Democrat Jane Harman.  The Republican guy put up a superb fight in the safe Democratic district.  In the end, his dream wasn't realized, but he cut dramatically into Democratic strength, and Dems cannot be rejoicing this morning.  From AP, via Fox:

LOS ANGELES – Democrat Janice Hahn defeated Republican Craig Huey in a bitter contest for a Southern California House seat Tuesday, preserving the party's hold on the district and surviving an unusually tough race in a Democratic stronghold.

With 100% of precincts reporting, Hahn, a Los Angeles city councilwoman, had 41,585 votes, or about 55 percent, to 34,636, or about 45 percent, for Huey, who owns marketing and advertising companies and largely bankrolled his campaign with nearly $900,000 in personal funds.

With a light turnout and widespread voter anxiety over the economy, Republicans were hoping for an upset that would send a message heading toward the 2012 national elections, in which President Barack Obama will seek a second term.

But Hahn's victory was far from impressive, given an 18-point Democratic registration edge in the 36th Congressional District, which runs from the famous Venice boardwalk through the beach communities south of Los Angeles International Airport.

COMMENT:  Huey cut the traditional Democratic margin almost in half, especially impressive since Hahn is from one of the best-known political families in Los Angeles.  Her brother was mayor.  Maybe something big is happening out there, maybe not.  But Republicans can at least claim a kind of moral victory in L.A. today.  Any GOP good news in L.A. is news indeed. 

July 13, 2011     Permalink

JULY 12,  2011

SHORT TAKES ON THE DRIFTING WRECKAGE:

WILL GOP TAKE A BATH IN DEBT TALKS? – Now, baths are good.  We're all for cleanliness here.  We're a pro-cleanliness site.  But taking a bath in politics is something else.  There's a widespread feeling in conservative circles that the Democrats are setting a trap for the GOP, which will dutifully fall into it.  The debt talks are complicated, but the Dems know how to demagogue a complicated issue, as Obama did today when he said today that, if there's no agreement, Social Security checks might not be delivered.  It's a dishonest tactic, but it always works.  As one pundit noted, congressional switchboards are immediately deluged with calls from worried seniors.  With the media on Obama's side, it's almost inevitable that the Republicans will take the brunt of the blame if the talks go wrong, unless they do a better job of explaining their anti-tax position to the American people.

WHERE RONNIE WALKED –  Ronald Reagan spent years doing ads for General Electric.  But would GE's current honcho hire him?  Probably not.  Jeffrey Immelt is Obama's poodle in big business, and he was out fronting for the president today, advising corporate leaders to stop complaining about government policies and get to work creating jobs.  Immelt is the chair of President Obama's Council on Jobs and Competitiveness.  He said he'd have some ideas on job creation by the end of the year.  It's heartwarming to see such a sense of urgency.  Maybe he can explain his schedule to a middle-aged unemployed guy with kids in college.  It's like the old saying, "You go to bed with Obama, you get up with a yawn."

LIGHT BULB LAW STILL STANDS – The House failed to repeal legislation mandating that light bulbs become dramatically more efficient.  Many conservatives opposed the original legislation, asserting that the choice of light bulbs should be left to individual buyers.  I know I'll get flak on this, but I had no serious problem with the requirement for change.  Congress is tasked by the Constitution to regulate interstate commerce.  While I favor minimal regulation and free markets, sane energy standards are within reason, especially as private industry was moving so slowly.  The fact that repeal failed in the conservative House indicates that there wasn't much public passion behind it.  I hope the mandate has the effect of spurring private competition for efficiency and quality, and lowering prices, which is what real competition usually does.

ARNOLD TO GO BACK TO HOLLYWOOD – Arnold Schwarzenegger is slated to return to Hollywood filmmaking in September, according to industry sources.  He will star in a western.  This is entirely logical.  The American public has yearned for years for a western starring an aging bodybuilder with an Austrian accent who had an out-of-wedlock child with his maid while serving as governor of our largest state.  I can't wait.  I'm already standing in line for my tickets.  I think his sidekick in the film should be John Edwards.  What a team.  They could do a series, like the Bob Hope/Bing Crosby road pictures.  Hollywood is back!  Just don't take the kids.

July 12, 2011     Permalink 

MONEY WORRIES ABOUT...CHINA? – AT 9:54 A.M. ET:   We tend in the U.S. to create imaginary supermen out of adversaries.  The Russians were ten feet tall.  Then the Japanese, with their Toyotas and Hondas.  And now the Chinese.

But the fact is that, while China is growing economically, it is also plagued with problems.  My friend Gordon Chang, a real China economic expert, has cautioned that China isn't the forward-forging monolith that we sometimes make of it.  And a new concern about China is moving global markets:

NEW YORK (CNNMoney) -- World stock markets tumbled Tuesday, after a report stoked concerns about the finances of more than five dozen Chinese companies, and as fears remain high about Europe's debt crisis spilling over into Italy.

Asian stocks finished sharply lower, with China's Shanghai Composite (SHCOMP) index falling 1.7% after Moody's Investors Services warned of risky business practices at 61 Chinese companies.

The "red flags" include weakness in corporate governance, poor quality of earnings, fast-growing business strategies and opaque business models.

LDK Solar (LDK), a Chinese solar company that is listed on the New York Stock Exchange, fell 1.4% in premarket trading after it was listed among the 61 companies in the report.

And...

Meanwhile, talks among Europe's finance ministers spilled over into their second day Tuesday, as the group tries to find a way to contain Greece's debt crisis and prevent a debt contagion from spreading to other so-called periphery countries.

After a nine-hour meeting on Monday, the group published a six-paragraph statement pledging to enact new measures "shortly," but failed to calm investors' nerves -- who fear the debt crisis will spread to Italy next.

COMMENT:  The grass isn't always greener in the other guy's yard.  Europe is in trouble.  And Gordon Chang tells me that parts of China are proving ungovernable, and can even turn to revolution.

Of course, China buys our debt.  I don't know who'll buy it if they run into trouble, but, given how much Al Gore has earned in the global-warming business, maybe he can be prevailed upon.

July 12,  2011     Permalink

QUOTE OF THE DAY – AT 9:12 A.M. ET:  Newsweek is running a remarkably fair piece on Sarah Palin this week, with a superb cover photo.  Steve Bannon, who made the new, positive film on Palin called "The Undefeated," is quoted in the article, as follows:

“I call her a McLuhan-esque character,” Bannon says. “She is saturated in media, and yet nobody knows her story. It’s hidden in broad daylight.”

Bannon, 57, was reared in a working-class Catholic family in Richmond, Va., and served in the Navy before making his way to Harvard Business School. There and later, working in mergers and acquisitions at Goldman Sachs, he acquired a lasting skepticism of the Eastern establishment. “At Harvard, and then on Wall Street, I noticed something: guys had academic credentials, and quantitatively, they’re very smart,” he says. “But I still never met anybody as smart as my grandfather, and he was a guy who went to the third grade. That’s kind of what I see in Sarah Palin—this combination of lived experience and intellectual curiosity. At Harvard, they didn’t have the lived experience; they avoided it. And by the way, that permeates the elite culture today.”

COMMENT:  That is absolutely spot-on.  I've seen it myself, especially in Hollywood, which has sawed itself off from the rest of the country.  I've seen it in universities, largely populated by people who've never been outside school walls.  I saw it in reporting from Vietnam, when I was on The New York Times – often smug reports written by Ivy League graduates who thought they knew more than Creighton Abrams.  I've seen it in the cultural establishment, which considers itself just a little bit better than those flyover people out there.

At the University of Chicago, in my day, it was accepted that the best students the place ever had were the veterans, right after World War II.  They had lived real lives.  They had seen tragedy.  They had matured.  And they had an adult perspective honed by experience.

We need that experience today.

(Hat tip on the above quote to reader Chris Corbett.)

July 12, 2011     Permalink

NEW YORK STUNNER – AT 8:50 A.M. ET:  One thing about former New York City Mayor Ed Koch – he calls him as he sees 'em.  Although a lifelong Democrat, Koch has never hesitated to take on the Dem establishment.  He won his spurs in New York by taking on and defeating former Tammany Hall boss Carmine DeSapio.

More spurs were awarded when Koch took on small-time President Jimmy Carter, leading a frustrated Carter aide to comment that Ed Koch represented all that was wrong with the Democratic Party.  No, he represented all that was right. 

Now Ed is doing it again, sticking his aging thumb right into the eye of Barack Obama.  There'll be a special election in New York to replace the highly unusual and embarrassing Congressman Anthony Weiner, who recently resigned when fine-art photos of him appeared on the internet.  And Ed Koch is suggesting that he may back...the Republican.  Read all about it, from The New York Post:

In "a shot across President Obama's bow," Democratic former Mayor Ed Koch yesterday urged voters in Queens and Brooklyn to make "history" by voting for the Republican candidate to replace randy ex-Rep. Anthony Weiner in the Sept. 13 special election -- as a protest against the White House's policy on Israel.

Koch -- a staunch ally of Israel -- said he would "vote for Bob Turner" if the Republican-Conservative candidate backs Israel and opposes cutbacks to Medicare, Medicaid and Social Security.

Turner can get that done.  This is New York.  Those programs are popular here, even with Republicans, who generally don't go near them.

"If Jewish New Yorkers and others who support Israel were to turn away from the Democratic Party in that congressional election and elect the Republican candidate to Congress in 2011, it might very well cause President Obama to change his hostile position on the state of Israel and to re-establish the special relationship presidents before him had supported," Koch said in his weekly commentary.

That's pretty strong medicine.  Actually, most American supporters of Israel are Christians, including large numbers of evangelicals.  If Koch's message reaches them, and if they consider support for Israel a key issue, this thing could snowball.

Obama has shown disrespect for a number of American allies, from Great Britain through Canada to Israel, but, of them, only Israel has a very active and passionate group of supporters.  Ed Koch has performed another service.  Now I want to see him support the Republican candidate for president.

As far as Ed giving any serious support to Obama:  As we say here, fuggedaboutit!

July 12, 2011     Permalink

SPECIAL IN CALIFORNIA – AT 8:38 A.M. ET:  There's a special election in California today to fill the seat vacated by Democrat Jane Harman, who resigned to take a position with a Washington think tank.  Harman is a decent, traditional Democrat who, unlike most of the California Democratic congressional delegation, actually understands that America has enemies.  She'll be missed by the sane elements of her party.

The election today is becoming exciting.  The Los Angeles district in play is heavily Democratic, but the Republican candidate is putting up a tremendous fight, and the election may be far closer than Democrats are used to in their safe district.  A new issue has been added:  gangs.  We wondered when the ugly phenomenon of these flash mobs running loose in many cities would enter the political arena.  Apparently today's the day.  From the Washington Times:

The hot issue of Tuesday’s special runoff election for an open House seat in Los Angeles isn’t the economy, immigration or Medicaid — it’s gangs, thanks to what may be the most jaw-dropping political attack ad ever run.

The video, “Give Me Your Cash, B****,” features two “rappers” accusing Democratic candidate Janice Hahn of coddling gang members during her 10 years on the Los Angeles City Council. The highlight is Mrs. Hahn’s red-eyed, demonic face imposed on a pole-dancer’s body as the rappers, pretending to be gang members, pull dollar bills out of her shorts.

The video, produced by an independent group not affiliated with the local Republican campaign, has been denounced as racist, sexist and just plain vile, but it may help explain why some doubt remains as to the outcome of Tuesday’s race to succeed former Rep. Jane Harman. Mrs. Harman, a Democrat, resigned from Congress in February to become the head of the Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars.

The Democratic candidate ordinarily would be considered a shoo-in to win the coastal Los Angeles County district...

...But Mr. Huey, 60, has proved to be a surprisingly strong challenger. His message of limited government and job creation has earned him tea party support, while his ability to fund his own campaign — he has spent $695,000 of his own money — has enabled him to keep pace with the better-connected Mrs. Hahn.

But it’s the gang video that put the race on the map. Produced by conservative attack-ad specialist Ladd Ehlinger Jr. for RightTurn USA, the video quickly went viral on YouTube and just as quickly became the focus of attention on the campaign trail.

“The big issue is gangs, and that’s to Huey’s advantage, obviously,” said Bob Stern, president of the Center for Governmental Studies in Los Angeles.

COMMENT:  We'll watch this closely.  I doubt if we'll see an upset victory (although we can hope), but we may see a conclusion that sends a powerful message to the 1960s-bound Democrats of California.

July 12, 2011     Permalink