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FEBRUARY 25,  2011

PATHETIC – AT 7:49 P.M. ET:  One of the major topics of discussion across the internet and on TV today has been the pathetic response of the Obama administration to the horror in Libya.  As Gadhafi continues to threaten mass murder, and our UN ambassador skips a critical session on Libya to fly off to South Africa for some obscure conference, the Obamans go into action.  From AP:

The White House says the U.S. is moving forward with plans to impose unilateral sanctions on Libya in response to violence there.

Take that, Gadhafi!  Sanctions!  You have no idea what our lawyers and accountants have in store for you.

Obama spokesman Jay Carney says the U.S. is finalizing that process Friday. He says the U.S. is also working with European partners on additional sanctions and other multilateral actions that could be taken.

"Working with," "multilateral," etc., etc.  That will stop the bloodshed.  No doubt about it.

The announcement comes as hundreds of Americans are evacuated from Libya following days of violence. Militias loyal to Moammar Gadhafi have been firing on protesters demanding the Libyan leader's ouster.

Carney says President Barack Obama will meet with the United Nations secretary general in Washington Monday to discuss the situation in Libya.

I'm sure it will be a hard-hitting meeting, maybe preceded by a rock concert. 

It's pathetic.  It's just pathetic.  Even Britain, in far worse shape than we are financially, sent a powerful warship to rescue British civilians in Libya.  We hired a ferry that turned out to be too small.

We learned this week that the U.S. doesn't even have one aircraft carrier in the Med.  We have only a command ship and a destroyer. 

What's happened to us?  Barack Obama happened to us, that's what.  And all over the world we're being ignored. 

But you can always watch the president and first lady at the salute to Motown at the White House last night.  It was only after the festivities ended that the president called the British prime minister and French president to discuss Libya.  First things first.  You can watch here:

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/video/2011/02/25/obama_first_lady_get_their_groove_on_to_motown_hits.html

February 25, 2011     Permalink

MAYBE SOME PROGRESS – AT 9:46 A.M. ET:  Public-employee unions are under intense pressure.  They will respond differently.  The unions under some of the most intense pressure are teachers' unions, and now comes a proposal from a major union leader that gives hope for reasonable compromise.  From The New York Times:

Responding to criticism that tenure gives even poor teachers a job for life, Randi Weingarten, the president of the American Federation of Teachers, announced a plan Thursday to overhaul how teachers are evaluated and dismissed.

It would give tenured teachers who are rated unsatisfactory by their principals a maximum of one school year to improve. If they did not, they could be fired within 100 days.

Teacher evaluations, long an obscure detail in an educator’s career, have moved front and center as school systems try to identify which teachers are best at improving student achievement, and to remove ineffective ones.

The issue has erupted recently, with many districts anticipating layoffs because of slashed budgets. Mayors including Michael R. Bloomberg of New York and Cory A. Booker of Newark have attacked seniority laws, which require that teacher dismissals be based on length of experience rather than on competency.

Ms. Weingarten has sought to play a major role in changing evaluations and tenure, lest the issue be used against unions to strip their influence over work life in schools — just as Republican lawmakers in Wisconsin and Ohio are trying to do this week.

COMMENT:  Shrewed move by Randi Weingarten.  Unions will do far better, and make important contributions, if they act wisely and rationally, rather than simply resisting.  The best union leaders do understand reality, and are often politically savvy.

At the same time, those confronting the public-employee unions, and that includes Republican governors, must proceed with sane and successful strategies.  Grandstanding is not enough.  There are several stories making the rounds this morning that point out that, while Republican governors are generally supporting Scott Walker in Wisconsin, some, including the great Chris Christie of New Jersey, are expressing reservations about the rigidity of Walker's style.  Eventually, confrontation wears thin.  Citizens want things settled, and they want reasonable concessions from public employees.  Christie has succeeded.  So has Mitch Daniels in Indiana.  Both are tough, but with a sense of what is possible and what is reasonable.  Both are immensely popular.

February 25, 2011      Permalink

A STRATEGY OF WEAKNESS – AT 9:11 A.M. ET:  The Hill has a fascinating piece this morning on some thinking inside the Republican Party – that sometimes is a contradiction in terms – about strategy for 2012.  This is not the kind of thinking that wins elections:

The GOP presidential field has weakened in recent weeks as Republicans seem to conclude they’d stand a better chance of winning the White House in 2016.

Several strategists and observers say the potential candidates are weighing their options and deciding it’s best to wait until the next cycle, when President Obama is ineligible to run and Vice President Biden, who will turn 74 that November, isn't expected to seek the Democratic nomination.

The heroism, the sense of excitement, the seizing of the moment!  Gee, I'd like to see just one of those things.  But it's the GOP, after all.  Sometimes their major exercise is yawning. 

The downside to waiting, of course, is that the 2016 Republican primary could be more competitive on account of the openness of the race.

“It’s tough fighting an incumbent president,” said Republican strategist Tyler Harber. “The people who make significant runs for office wait for when it’s an open seat.”

Oh dear, oh dear, oh dear.  Do these people remember a fella named Reagan and an incumbent president named Carter?  Reagan turned Carter into an ex-.  And, oh, remember a guy named Clinton in 1992, and an incumbent named George H.W. Bush?  Another ex- created. 

Obama is vulnerable.  Yes, the odds are with him, but odds can be turned around. 

South Dakota Sen. John Thune, New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie, Indiana Rep. Mike Pence, Wisconsin Rep. Paul Ryan and Florida Sen. Marco Rubio have ruled themselves out of the race, citing bad timing, a lack of desire and home-state commitments.

Nonsense.  I believe that Rubio, in particular, can jump right back in.

Republicans have just come off one of the major electoral triumphs in recent political history, and some of them are already talking defeat for 2012.  Now do you see why Ronald Reagan had to fight the GOP establishment every step of the way?  Some of these contented souls are not only asleep at the switch, they don't even know where the switch is.

In the latter half of the 20th century, only two presidents have suffered defeat while seeking a second term. So the odds of winning the GOP nomination and unseating the president are slim, despite some difficult poll numbers for Obama.

How about a little examination of that statement?  Truman did not seek reelection in 1952, although he was legally eligible.  Eisenhower ran and won a second term, but Ike was a political giant, essentially unbeatable.  President Kennedy, tragically, never got to run for a second term.  Lyndon Johnson bowed out in 1968, not running.  Nixon ran and won.  Ford, already president, ran for a full term in 1976 and was defeated.   Carter, running for his second term in 1980, was defeated.   The great Reagan easily won a second term in 1984 against the dull Mondale.  As noted above, George H.W. Bush was defeated for a second term.  Brilliant campaigner and so-so president, Bill Clinton, won his second term against next-in-line candidate Bob Dole in 1996. 

That history is not discouraging for a good challenger in 2012.  Wake up, boys.  Get out of our way.

February 25, 2011       Permalink

AND IN LIBYA – AT 8:45 A.M. ET:  The crisis deepens as rebels press the attack.  From Fox:

BENGHAZI, Libya -- Libya's rebel movement launched a new push against Muammar al-Qaddafi on Friday, calling for mass demonstrations as it seeks to solidify its gains and loosen the longtime leader's grip on the capital.

Foreign mercenaries and Libyan militiamen loyal to Qaddafi have fought fiercely to roll back the uprising against his rule, attacking two nearby cities Thursday in battles that killed at least 17 people. But rebels made new gains, seizing a military air base, as Qaddafi blamed Osama bin Laden for the upheaval.

A Tripoli resident said people in the capital have received messages on their cell phones urging them to launch demonstrations after Friday prayers, and he said he expected thousands to comply despite fear of pro-Qaddafi militiamen who have been deployed on the streets.

The capital's central Green Square was the site of intense clashes earlier in the week between government supporters and protesters.

The resident said the government detained several activists in Tripoli late Thursday to try to prevent the demonstrations from taking place. Among those detained was Mukhtar al-Mahmoudi, a former member of Libya's Muslim Brotherhood, who in the past spent six years in jail, the resident said, speaking on condition of anonymity for fear of reprisals.

COMMENT:  This revolt has resulted in far more violence against protesters than did Egypt's.  There apparently is still some rebel activity in Yemen and Bahrain, but the world's attention is focused on Libya.  It is a major oil producer, and its government is far more brutal than the other regimes under challenge. 

At the same time, some experienced Libya watchers are concerned that, if the violence continues and basic services are cut off Al Qaeda can take advantage of the situation in the eastern part of the country, where it already has some support from impoverished elements within the population.

February 25, 2011       Permalink

THEY CALL HIM "NO DRAMA OBAMA" – AT 8:30 A.M. ET:  And he'd better develop some drama.  Increasingly, observers are becoming dismayed at Obama's sluggishness in responding to the Libyan bloodbath.  Now, apparently, he has made it to a telephone.  From London's Daily Mail:

Barack Obama last night held an emergency crisis summit with the leaders of Britain, France and Italy to thrash out action plans over the uprising in Libya, the White House said.

The U.S. president phoned David Cameron, Nicolas Sarkozy and Silvio Berlusconi to express his 'deep concern' over Colonel Gaddafi's use of violence which he said 'violates every standard of human decency'.

There were unconfirmed reports this afternoon that protesters were fired on by Gaddafi troops as they demonstrated in the Western suburbs of Tripoli.

How long did it take this president, who billed himself as "sensitive" to the world's oppressed peoples, to make the phone call?  Many days, my friends.  After all, there were apparently more important things to do:

But before making the urgent phone call, Mr Obama hosted a concert featuring stars including Nick Jonas, Seal and John Legend, to celebrate Black History Month at the White House.

Some relatives of those who are still stuck on the catamaran trying to escape Tripoli harbour and in oil-field camps inside the country might take some exception to the revelry at the White house last night to celebrate Motown music.

I would certainly say so.  During the election campaign of 2008, Hillary Clinton, in battling Obama for the Dem nomination, asked how this inexperienced man would react to a crisis call at 3 a.m.  I think we now pretty much know the answer.

Among the options under discussion was a no-fly zone over the oil-rich nation to prevent Gaddafi's air force attacking his own people.

At last report we don't have a single aircraft carrier in the Mediterranean.  But, with midair refueling, assets could be based in Italy and flown over Libya before a carrier can be placed on the scene.

Our response is pathetic.  If the protesters in Libya are defeated, we will share the blame, and any "outreach" to the Muslim world will be a joke.

February 25, 2011     Permalink

FEBRUARY 24,  2011

A NEW LIBYAN NIGHTMARE – AT 7:22 P.M. ET:  Late reports say that regime thugs, including foreign mercenaries, are now attacking protesters in areas around Tripoli.  A brief report this afternoon said that Qaddafi was dead, but there is absolutely no confirmation, and news organizations are completely skeptical.  It appears, and this is pure informed speculation, that Qaddafi will make his last stand in a bunker in Tripoli.  He must have seen a lot of war movies.

And now there is a new worry, from CBS News:

As Muammar Qaddafi continues his violent crackdown on opposition protesters, U.S. officials are worried how far the embattled Libyan leader may go to neutralize the growing threat to his power.

According to a Wall Street Journal report, Qaddafi still possesses caches of mustard gas and other chemical weapons, as well as a stockpile of Scud B missiles and 1,000 metric tons of uranium yellowcake, leaving Washington skittish.

"When you have a guy who's as irrational as Qaddafi with some serious weapons at his disposal, it's always a concern," a U.S. official told the paper. "But we haven't yet seen him move to use any kind of mustard gas or chemical weapon."

Libya abandoned its nuclear program in 2003 in favor of normalized relations with the U.S. and the West, but plans to destroy its chemical weapons stockpiles were waylaid by bureaucratic spats with the U.S., officials told the paper.

Given the escalation of violence in an attempt to quash the opposition and Qaddafi's unpredictability, the officials' concerns may have merit.

COMMENT:  Saddam Hussein used chemical weapons.  Why wouldn't Qaddafi?  Dictators facing the end have often fought with enormous ferocity, and, like Hitler, can turn on their own people.

The violence in Libya is, by far, the greatest we have seen in the current wave of Arab revolts.  The protesters may, in the end, be crushed.  Even if they win, the cost can be ghastly.

Meanwhile, the American administration is involved in "consultations" with allies.  I'm sure there's an app for that.

February 24, 2011      Permalink

JUST A GUY WHO WANTS TO GIVE BACK – AT 7:15 P.M. ET:  George Soros, the ultra-left international money trader, presents himself as just a rich guy who wants to help society.  Yeah, right.  His "helping" of society always seems to have an asterisk.  The Washington Examiner reports:

George Soros -- whom we're always told is not serving his own economic interests at all by promoting liberal politicians and big-government policies -- is launching a new investment fund that plans to profit off of the "green energy" boom, which is entirely dependent on government subsidies supported by the groups Soros funds.

As the press release puts it, this fund will "leverage technology and business model innovation to improve energy efficiency, reduce waste and emissions, harness renewable energy, and more efficiently use natural resources, among other applications." As Soros puts it in the same release: “Developing alternative sources of energy and achieving greater energy efficiency is both a significant global investment opportunity and an environmental imperative.” Cadie Thompson at CNBC's NetNet flagged this.

So, yeah. The big-government policies advanced by the liberal outfits he funds -- like Center for American Progress -- will enrich the companies in which Soros is investing.

But this story gets better.

The press release casually mentions whom Soros is hiring to run this new fund: Cathy Zoi. As Cadie Thompson at CNBC's NetNet (edited by my brother John Carney), puts it,

Zoi was Barack Obama's "Acting Under Secretary for Energy and Assistant Secretary for Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy." An Al Gore acolyte, Zoi was Obama's point-woman on subsidizing green tech. Now she's going to work for George Soros to profit off of subsidized green tech.

COMMENT:  I'm just shocked by this.  George Soros, a profiteer?  My whole world view is shattered.  Say it isn't so, George.  Say you live in a one-bedroom apartment in a bad part of Brooklyn.

We now await the reaction of liberal "good government" groups.  And we wait.  And we wait.  And we'll wait a long time because many of them are filling out their applications for Soros money.

The damge one man can do.

February 24, 2011       Permalink

AND ANOTHER, JUST IN – AT 11:25 A.M. ET:  Another alleged terror plot on our soil, presumably thwarted.  Just in:

Khalid Ali-M Aldawsari, 20, a citizen of Saudi Arabia and resident of Lubbock, Texas, was arrested late yesterday by FBI agents in Texas on a federal charge of attempted use of a weapon of mass destruction in connection with his alleged purchase of chemicals and equipment necessary to make an improvised explosive device (IED) and his research of potential U.S. targets.

The arrest and the criminal complaint, which was unsealed in the Northern District of Texas, were announced by David Kris, Assistant Attorney General for National Security; James T. Jacks, U.S. Attorney for the Northern District of Texas; and Robert E. Casey Jr., Special Agent in Charge of the FBI Dallas Field Division.

Aldawsari is expected to make his initial appearance in federal court in Lubbock at 9:00 a.m. on Friday morning. Aldawsari, who was lawfully admitted into the United States in 2008 on a student visa and is enrolled at South Plains College near Lubbock, faces a maximum sentence of life in prison and a $250,000 fine if convicted of attempted use of a weapon of mass destruction.

According to the affidavit filed in support of the complaint, Aldawsari has been researching online how to construct an IED using several chemicals as ingredients. He has also acquired or taken a substantial step toward acquiring most of the ingredients and equipment necessary to construct an IED and he has conducted online research of several potential U.S. targets, the affidavit alleges. In addition, he has allegedly described his desire for violent jihad and martyrdom in blog postings and a personal journal.

COMMENT:  It is important that we not jump to conclusions, but instead appreciate cultural difference.  In Saudi Arabia jihad is like, well, soccer. 

February 24, 2011      Permalink

IS THE BIG GAS STATION NEXT? – AT 10:58 A.M. ET:  No country in the Arab world is more important than Saudi Arabia, the big gas station in the desert.  Saudi Arabia is oil.  I can't think of anything else.  Well, maybe religious patrols to make sure women don't drive cars.  (Chevy Malibu is a high sin.) 

Will Saudi Arabia be next on the revolution list?  Charles Krauthammer urges us to watch closely.  From The Daily Caller:

Here’s something Americans should certainly keep their eyes on – the potential for unrest in Saudi Arabia, which the United States imports more oil from than any other country outside of North America.

Fox News Channel contributor Charles Krauthammer warned of that potential on Wednesday night’s “Special Report Online,” aired on FoxNews.com, which could be foiled by the Saudis' intelligence apparatus.

“The big one is March 11,” Krauthammer said. “There’s a Facebook call in Saudi Arabia for a day of rage all over Saudi Arabia on March 11. Now, the Saudis have really good intelligence. They are tough. They’re ruthless and they’re effective. There isn’t a lot of anti-government activity in Saudi Arabia.”

If it isn’t foiled though, Krauthammer said such unrest could spell dire consequences for the world economy and would warrant intervention.

And...

...there are humanitarian concerns in Libya that are significant,” he continued. “There are also strategic concerns, but there’s nothing compared to Saudi Arabia and it’ll be interesting. I’m not sure anything will happen on March 11, but if something does we got a whole new world we’re living in.”

COMMENT:  That is correct, but the Saudi government is expert at bribing the population with some petro dollars, and it can probably count on help from the U.S. and Europe because this is a gas station that can't close.

Gas at the pump is averaging about $3.50 a gallon where we are, for regular.  If the disruptions in the Mideast continue, we could be looking at catastrophically higher prices, with a possible impact on the 2012 presidential election. 

February 24, 2011       Permalink

GUESS HE FORGOT TO HIT THE "DELETE" BUTTON – AT 9:20 A.M. ET:  You've no doubt watched as a parade of Mideast "experts" crossed your television screen, giving us the benefit of their vast wisdom and knowledge.  Some are good, some are great, like Fouad Ajami of Johns Hopkins, whom we often quote here, and some are world-class duds, who couldn't learn the difference between red and green on a traffic light.

Among the duds we now count one Stephen Walt of Harvard.  Walt is famous for writing, along with his partner in crime, Professor John Mearsheimer of the University of Chicago, a book-length smear of American supporters of Israel that was, to put it mildly, factually challenged.  As The Wall Street Journal reports, Walt, last year, wrote this about his excellent adventure in Libya:

Although Libya is far from a democracy, it also doesn't feel like other police states that I have visited. I caught no whiff of an omnipresent security service—which is not to say that they aren't there. . . . The Libyans with whom I spoke were open and candid and gave no sign of being worried about being overheard or reported or anything like that. . . . I tried visiting various political websites from my hotel room and had no problems, although other human rights groups report that Libya does engage in selective filtering of some political websites critical of the regime. It is also a crime to criticize Qaddafi himself, the government's past human rights record is disturbing at best, and the press in Libya is almost entirely government-controlled. Nonetheless, Libya appears to be more open than contemporary Iran or China and the overall atmosphere seemed far less oppressive than most places I visited in the old Warsaw Pact. . . .

The remarkable improvement in U.S.-Libyan relations reminds us that deep political conflicts can sometimes be resolved without recourse to preventive war or "regime change." One hopes that the United States and Libya continue to nurture and build a constructive relationship, and that economic and political reform continues there. (I wouldn't mind seeing more dramatic political reform—of a different sort—here too).

COMMENT:  If you're debating where to go on your next vacation, better not call Stevie. In fact, better not call a lot of the academics we're seeing on TV these days, "scholars" whose professorships are sometimes subsidized by the Saudis or other worthies. 

Maybe journalists will start doing real research again and question some academics on their past statements about the Mideast.  Might make for some genuinely embarrassing conversation. 

The sad fact, though, is that academics like Walt are just the kind invited to give lectures to high-ranking government and military officials, which is one reason we often get things so wrong.

February 24, 2011       Permalink

ESCAPEE NEWS – AT 8:58 A.M. ET:  Just to get a taste of the pain, the suffering, experienced by Democratic lawmakers in Wisconsin who escaped across state lines to avoid voting on Governor Scott Walker's reform package, a vote they would lose to the GOP majority.  They are joined by Dem lawmakers from Indiana and Ohio.   From The New York Times:

CHICAGO — By now, Jon Erpenbach, one of 14 Democratic state senators on the run from Wisconsin, has switched hotels in this city three times, a necessity, he says, as word kept slipping out about where he was staying.

At first it was unsettling: the essentials were forgotten — extra slacks, socks, even underwear — in a last-minute race to get south of the state line. But gradually the lawmakers restocked, thanks to packages delivered by family members and trips to discount stores.

Our hearts are breaking.  Now we know what war refugees feel like.  We're trying to get an address where Urgent Agenda readers can send contributions.  Any amount helps.

And while they seem to be adjusting to the rhythms of life on the lam, they are still trying to come to grips with being part of a sudden Democratic diaspora that everyone knows about but that the lawmakers themselves do not want to reveal. Speaking by telephone, many of them will say merely that they are staying “somewhere in northern Illinois,” in hotels or homes or something else, together or separately or both.

Diaspora?  Soon this will have religious overtones.

“It all feels very spylike,” said Senator Chris Larson, who managed to get a belt from his Milwaukee-area home with help from a friend who met him in a parking lot. “It’s almost like a reality TV show,” Mr. Larson said, ticking off some in the melting pot of personalities who find themselves together — a lot: a pregnant mother, a dairy farmer, an urban senator, a lawmaker who was first elected in 1956, and Mr. Larson himself, who took office less than two months ago.

COMMENT:  I can see the movie.  I can cast it now.  Ava Gardner as the pregnant mother; James Cagney as the urban senator...  Oh, wait, they're no longer available.  Let me call my agent.

February 24, 2011      Permalink

LIBYA NOW – AT 8:27 A.M. ET:  The situation in Libya is awful, as government troops are attacking protesters in a number of places.  The capital city of Tripoli is reported to be a ghost town, with citizens afraid to go outside.  A number of Americans are reported trapped in Libya, unable to get out.  There is a possibility of a civil war, assuming the dissidents have the weapons to wage one.  From AP, via Fox:

BENGHAZI, Libya -- A Libyan army unit loyal to Muammar al-Qaddafi attacked anti-government protesters holed up in a mosque in a key city west of the capital Thursday, blasting a minaret with anti-aircraft missiles and automatic weapons, a witness said.

Protesters who had been camped inside and outside the mosque suffered heavy casualties in the attack on Zawiya, 30 miles west of Tripoli, the witness said, but he couldn't provide an exact toll.

Pro-Qaddafi forces have fought back fiercely as the longtime leader has seen his control whittled away, with Zawiya and other major Libyan cities and towns closer to the capital falling to the rebellion against his rule. In the east, now all but broken away, the opposition vowed to "liberate" Tripoli, where the Libyan leader is holed up with a force of militiamen roaming the streets and tanks guarding the outskirts.

Qaddafi's use of excessive force has so far helped him maintain control of Tripoli, a city that holds about a third of Libya's 6 million population. But the protesters' determination has divided the country and threatened to push it toward civil war.

The witness, who spoke on condition of anonymity for fear of reprisals, said the 9 a.m. attack came a day after a Qaddafi aide identified as Abdullah Megrahi came to the city and warned the protesters to"leave or you will see a massacre."

COMMENT:  A few weeks ago, Western journalists were denouncing Egypt's Hosni Mubarak as perhaps the worst man who'd ever lived.  Now he looks almost gentle, the authoritarian who wouldn't order troops to fire on Egyptians. 

Qaddafi has vowed to remain in Libya and die as a martyr, if need be, and I think we should take him at his word. 

But there is a reality here.  We can be inspired by the Libyan protesters, as we should be.  But their fate will depend on forces that have little to do with inspiration.  We again remind readers of the comment by Douglas MacArthur that those who think the pen is mightier than the sword have never faced automatic weapons.  There is no guarantee that the Libyan revolution will succeed even in getting Qaddafi out of office.  He will take the whole country down with him, if he has to.

Libya is a major oil producer.  A cutoff of Libyan oil, added to unrest elsewhere in the Mideast, could cause fuel prices to soar here.  And what is Obama's response?  Nothing.  He has restricted offshore drilling and refuses to open areas with proved reserves to drilling.   This nation faces a possible energy crisis, and Obama faces fanatical environmentalists in his party.  The nuts are winning, the nation is losing, which has been part of the story of this administration.

February 24, 2011     Permalink