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FEBRUARY 17,  2011

AND SO IT BEGINS – AT 9:07 P.M. ET:  Weren't we just told that the Muslim Brotherhood in Egypt was going to lie low for a time?  Apparently, one of its chief spiritual leaders didn't get the message.  This guy is a fundamentalist, but has the ability to sound moderate when the need arises.   He is dangerous, and he's baaack!

For the first time since he was banned from leading weekly friday prayers in Egypt 30 years ago, prominent Muslim scholar Yusuf al-Qaradawi will lead thousands in the weekly prayers from Cairo’s Tahrir Square on Friday.

Sources told Al Arabiya that a military force will accompany the head of the International Union of Muslim Scholars from his home to Tahrir Square, provide security for the prayers and accompany him back to his residence.

Al-Qaradawi last delivered a Friday prayer sermon in Egypt in 1981 after the assassination of former President Anwar el-Sadat.

COMMENT:  I think we deceive ourselves if we believe the Islamists won't move to control Egypt.  If they ever reach that point, the Mideast could go up in flames. 

February 17, 2011       Permalink

DID SOMEONE SAY 2012? – AT 8:08 P.M. ET:  I'm sure you're familiar with the prediction that the world will end in 2012.  There are various foreign cultures who've hyped that line for years, or centuries.  Whether it will come true or not, none of us can know.  Maybe Obama's reelection will do the trick.

But there is something happening in space, and it may really have implications for 2012.  Consider this:

A POWERFUL solar eruption that has already disturbed radio communications in China could disrupt electrical power grids and satellites used on Earth in the next days, NASA said.

The massive sunspot, which astronomers say is the size of Jupiter, is the strongest solar flare in four years, NASA said yesterday.

The Class X flash - the largest such category - erupted on Tuesday, according to the US space agency.

"X-class flares are the most powerful of all solar events that can trigger radio blackouts and long-lasting radiation storms," disturbing telecommunications and electric grids, NASA said.

And get this:

Astronomers have been predicting that a solar cycle known as Solar maximum, predicted to hit with full force in 2012, could be one of the most damaging on record.

Similar storms back in 1859 and 1921 caused worldwide chaos, wiping out telegraph wires on a massive scale, but the potential for damage in the digital era could be much greater.

A recent report by the National Academy of Sciences found that if a similar storm occurred today, it could cause “$1 to 2 trillion in damages to society's high-tech infrastructure and require four to 10 years for complete recovery."

COMMENT:  Of course, our intelligence community will probably issue a report saying, "We don't see the Sun as a serious ideological threat.  We believe it has given up violence and become moderate."

We await 2012.  The presidential election may not be the big event of the year.

February 17, 2011       Permalink

SOME IN THE ACADEMIC WORLD GET IT – AT 9:35 A.M. ET:  What?  Did I read this correctly?  A college is actually lowering tuition?  Leave us we should read on. 

And it's a well-known college at that – Sewanee, alma mater to several of our great and active Urgent Agenda readers.  From The New York Times:

For those who wonder how college tuition costs manage to keep rising year after year, apparently defying laws of economic gravity, Sewanee, a liberal arts college in Tennessee, has an answer: they can’t.

On Wednesday, Sewanee announced that it will cut its $46,000 annual bill for students by 10 percent in the fall.

The college, formally Sewanee: The University of the South, is betting that the drop in tuition — which at this point it can afford — will help it compete on two fronts: with the public universities that are siphoning off a growing share of the students it accepts, and with other private colleges where tuition is likely to increase by 4 to 5 percent this year, as it has for the last two years.

“The university has made a bold and perhaps risky move,” said John M. McCardell Jr., who became vice chancellor of Sewanee a year ago. “But given the realities of higher education in the current economy, we believe that some college or university needed to step up and say, ‘Enough.’ ”

Four cheers for Sewanee.  Too many colleges have become huge rackets, charging absurd prices that seem unrelated to the quality of the education they provide.  Incoming students watch as their revered institutions build all kinds of edifices and establish all manner of departments to suit this group or the other. 

(One prominent Urgent Agenda reader, himself an academic, said that if you want to really improve higher education, eliminate all departments whose names end with "studies.")

At the same time, colleges and universities apply for and receive heavy amounts of federal aid, without too many questions asked. 

If Americans generally have to cut back, then colleges have to cut back.  We hope Sewanee's step leads the way.

February 17, 2011      Permalink

OBAMA STUMBLES IN POLL – AT 9:02 A.M. ET:  Now, at least this week, "anybody" at least ties the president.  From Andrew Malcolm at the L.A. Times's Top of the Ticket blog:

President Obama's done a lot of talking recently about Winning the Future. Trouble is, he's not. Politically.

At this moment -- 57% of the way through a first term with only 628 days left until the 2012 presidential election -- the Democrat can only tie any conceivable Republican candidate.

The GOP doesn't even need a frontrunner to catch the incumbent of the most powerful political office in the world. No wonder Obama's bringing fresh blood into the White House and shipping out aides to kick-start the billion-dollar campaign back in Chicago.

A new Gallup Poll finds Obama a little worse off in that generic presidential ballot category this year than he was last year at this time.

And -- this'll get the ex-state senator chewing the nicotine gum faster -- the new Gallup numbers show Obama significantly behind the same standing of his Republican predecessor, that Texas guy who still refuses to reciprocate Obama's criticism of his two terms.

Last February Obama led a generic Republican 44-42. This February, after the invisible "Recovery Summer" and Democrats' historic midterm election shellacking, any Republican ties Obama at 45-45.

And...

Gallup's numbers show Obama maintaining his voter strength among blacks. Women still prefer him more than men do.

But the youth vote, so crucial to the Democratic ticket last time, is evaporating. Going into the 2008 election Obama had 63% of the registered voters aged 18 to 34. Today, he's got only 51%. Likewise, Obama's support among 35-to-54-year-olds has crumbled from 53% in 2008 to 43% today.

COMMENT:  While this gives us cause for optimism, please always remember how hard the Republicans work to lose elections.  You must admire their zeal.  So let's not take anything for granted.

The Republicans need a dynamic candidate to wrap things up.  Or an unusual candidate who captures the public imagination.  I don't see that person yet, but I'm looking.

February 17, 2011       Permalink 

A NETWORK COVER-UP? – AT 8:21 A.M. ET:  The despicable sexual assault on CBS correspondent Lara Logan by an Egyptian mob last week was bad enough.  But there are charges that CBS is compounding the outrage by withholding facts that don't conform to the accepted "narrative" that the crowds in Egypt were just enlightened, modern, peace-loving protesters.  From the Boston Herald:

“[60 Minutes] correspondent Lara Logan was repeatedly sexually assaulted by thugs yelling, ‘Jew! Jew!’ as she covered the chaotic fall of Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak in Cairo’s main square Friday.”

Powerful reporting on an important story. Two problems: It didn’t run until yesterday, and CBS didn’t run it. The quote is from the New York Post. And it was The Wall Street Journal that reported “the separation and assault lasted roughly 20 to 30 minutes.”

CBS did not report the story of Logan's assault for five days.  I personally sympathize with CBS's initial decision to stay silent because of the sexual nature of the attack.  But, once the facts started coming out, CBS had a journalistic obligation to report the whole truth, which it clearly has not done:

Some women journalists, like WGBH’s Callie Crossley, complain that CBS should never have reported the story, that Logan should be treated like a rape victim in the United States. But I’m with liberal columnist Richard Cohen of The Washington Post:

“The sexual assault of a woman in the middle of a public square is a story  . . .  particularly because the crowd in Tahrir Square was almost invariably characterized as friendly and out for nothing but democracy,” Cohen wrote.

Watching the same complicit media we all saw, Cohen notes most journalists covered the mobs “as if they were reporting from Times Square on New Year’s Eve, stopping only at putting on a party hat.”

Even CBS’s own statement said Logan was “covering the jubilation” and was attacked “amidst the celebration.”

These are good points.  We still don't actually know what many of the protesters actually want.  The press was burned in Cuba in 1959, when Fidel Castro was reported as a good-hearted revolutionary, aided by his revolutionary Tonto, Che Guevera.  And it was burned again in Iran in 1979. 

And we saw what happened when Gaza was permitted a free election.  The people went to the polls and elected Hamas, a wholly owned subsidiary of the Iranian mullahs.

It's time to ask some tough questions.  As Americans, we favor democracy.  But we also favor freedom, civil liberties, and human decency.  All those terms are not interchangeable, no matter what the media party line.

February 17, 2011       Permalink

QUOTE OF THE DAY – AT 8:12 A.M. ET:  From former President Jimmah ("Ahm the best ex-president evah") Carter, breaking his silence on the Mideast protests and offering us his deep wisdom.

"I think the Muslim Brotherhood is not anything to be afraid of in the upcoming (Egyptian) political situation and the evolution I see as most likely," Carter said. "They will be subsumed in the overwhelming demonstration of desire for freedom and true democracy."

Boy, am I relieved.  Now that Jimmah has said it, it must be so.  And we know what Jimmah's track record is in identifying threats.  Remember how he just got everything soooo right on Iran.

And we're still paying for this deep thinker's "rightness" today.

February 17, 2011       Permalink

BAHRAIN TURNING VIOLENT – AT 7:57 A.M. ET:  Bahrain is headquarters to the U.S. Fifth Fleet.  It has been wracked with anti-government demonstrations in the last few days.  Now, a crackdown that appears to rival that in Iran.  From The New York Times:

MANAMA, Bahrain — Without warning, hundreds of heavily armed riot police officers rushed into Pearl Square here early Thursday, firing shotguns, tear gas and concussion grenades at the thousands of demonstrators who were sleeping there as part of a widening protest against the nation’s absolute monarchy.

At least five people died, some of them reportedly killed in their sleep with scores of shotgun pellets to the face and chest, according to a witness and three doctors who received the dead and at least 200 wounded at a hospital here. The witness and the physicians spoke in return for anonymity for fear of official reprisals.

The abrupt crackdown on what had been a carnival-like protest injected a new anger into demonstrations calling on King Hamad bin Isa al-Khalifa to enact reforms. “Death to Khalifa, death to Khalifa,” hundreds of protesters chanted on Thursday outside a hospital as women ran screaming through wards and corridors seeking lost children.

And in Yemen:

Sanaa, Yemen (CNN) -- At least 20 people were injured in clashes between stone-throwing pro- and anti-government demonstrators in Yemen's capital Sanaa on Thursday, an opposition lawmaker told CNN.
Ahmed Hashid, the lawmaker, said police at the scene did not try to intervene.

The clashes came after anti-government protesters tried to find a place to hold their demonstration, the government opponents told CNN.

They had planned to gather at Sanaa University but found government supporters there, who forced them to leave, they said.

Libya:

(CNN) -- Unprecedented demonstrations sweeping the Middle East and North Africa spread Wednesday to Libya, where police clashed with anti-government protesters in the coastal city of Benghazi, an independent source told CNN.

About 200 protesters came out to show support for human rights activist and lawyer Fathi Terbil, who had been detained earlier, the source said. Several people were arrested after police confronted the protesters, the source added.

But Libya -- ruled by Moammar Gadhafi since 1969 -- is not Egypt, said a highly placed Libyan source close to the government who asked not to be identified because he was not authorized to talk to the media.

"There is nothing serious here," he said. "These are just young people fighting each other."

Driven by discontent and fueled by social media, protests in the region spread this week not just to Libya but to Iran and Bahrain. Anti-government sentiment has also manifested itself on the streets of Algeria, Jordan, Syria and Yemen.

COMMENT:  The United States kissed and made up with Libya, and Britain arranged for the mastermind behind the terror downing of PanAm 103, imprisoned in a Scottish jail, to be released and returned to Libya on compassionate grounds.  He was presumably scheduled to die, but hasn't followed the schedule.

Unrest appears to be spreading in the Mideast, and big, bad Hosni Mubarak, who left power without ordering his soldiers to fire on citizens, doesn't look all that evil any longer.  In other countries, crackdowns are the order of the day. 

Note the deep concern of the political left in America.  A few prisoners were humiliated in an American-run jail in Iraq and the left went crazy.  With all this happening, yawn, little interest.  I guess it's a cultural thing.,

February 17, 2011     Permalink

FEBRUARY 16,  2011

WILL YOU SLEEP BETTER TONIGHT? – AT 8:45 P.M. ET:  We reported earlier on some stunning comments by a mouthpiece for the Muslim Brotherhood.   We may have to deal seriously with that organization if it gains power in Egypt and other Arab countries.  But how can we deal seriously if the bozos in charge of American "intelligence" have no idea what's going on.  It's hard to believe this, but it's being reported all over.  This story is from The Jerusalem Post:

Top US intelligence on Wednesday struggled to answer questions about the agenda of Egypt's Muslim Brotherhood, amid accusations the spy services were caught off-guard by protests in Cairo that forced Hosni Mubarak to step down as president.

US National Intelligence Director James Clapper told senators at a hearing that he was unsure about the Muslim Brotherhood's stance on Iran, the Egypt-Israel peace treaty and weapons smuggling into Gaza.

"It's hard to at this point to point to a specific agenda of the Muslim Brotherhood as a group," he said.

This is just incredible.  How much to we spend on "intelligence" gathering each year? 

CIA Director Leon Panetta told senators the Muslim Brotherhood was not "monolithic" but that the intelligence services were closely following the organization, which he said included "extremist elements."

Oh dear, oh dear.  The Nazi Party in Germany wasn't monolithic.  The Communists in the Soviet Union sometimes differed with each other.  But people with common sense knew what the thrust of both groups was. 

Why do I feel that this "deaf and dumb" routine may be designed to please the man in the White House, who never met a Muslim extremist he didn't try to "understand"?

We're in the soup. 

February 16, 2011       Permalink

SNIPPET OF THE DAY – AT 7:58 P.M. ET:

From The Hill:  The head of the CIA told senators on Wednesday that Osama bin Laden would be held at Guantánamo Bay prison if he were captured.

No need, no need.  The Berkeley, California, City Council is meeting this week to decide whether to take some prisoners from Guantanamo.  They would certainly be honored to have Sheik bin Laden.  They could put him in the People's Detention Center and Multicultural Spa, adjoining the university campus.  He could teach courses in resistance to imperialism and making home videos.

February 16, 2011      Permalink

WE'RE TALKING SCARY HERE, REALLY SCARY – AT 10:33 A.M. ET:  Youssef al-Qaradawi, the guy considered the spokesman for the Muslim Brotherhood of Egypt has a regular show on Al Jazeera, a deceptive "news" network that actually promotes radical Islam, while dressing it up a bit.

This guy is the subject of a detailed investigative report in the German magazine Der Spiegel.  It's the kind of reporting we're not getting here, and the result scares the heck out of me.  Consider this:

Qaradawi advocates establishing a "United Muslim Nations" as a contemporary form of the caliphate and the only alternative to the hegemony of the West. He hates Israel and would love to take up arms himself. In one of his sermons, he asked God "to kill the Jewish Zionists, every last one of them."

In January 2009, he said: "Throughout history, Allah has imposed upon the [Jews] people who would punish them for their corruption. The last punishment was carried out by [Adolf] Hitler."

Will this man encourage his brothers in Cairo to uphold the peace treaty with Israel, should the Muslim Brotherhood become part of a government now that Mubarak has resigned?

And yet there are those in the U.S. who are promoting the Brotherhood as "moderate," even secular.

It doesn't get any better:

The imam has also developed a reputation for himself as a moderate. Many see him as a symbol of an enlightened Islam. When speaking to the Western media, in particular, Qaradawi likes to point to Muslims' tolerance of non-Muslims and condemns the attacks of al-Qaida.

He also speaks out against the systematic castigation of wives. He calls the practice unwise, saying: "Blows are not effective with every woman, but they are helpful with some." In other cases, the sheikh insists on equal rights. For example, he says, a woman does not have to ask her husband's permission to blow herself up in an Israeli café.

Moderate, thoughtful religious leader.  Not like the others.  Geez.

...many feel that the TV imam is more dangerous than those like the Taliban who teach the Koran to the letter. Qaradawi does not demand anything impossible from his contemporaries. Instead, he stresses that his followers can be devout and modern at the same time.

Critics see Qaradawi's caution as nothing but a ruse. In the German blog "Die Achse des Guten" ("The Axis of Good"), Christoph Spielberger writes about the "Islamic principle of Taqiyya, or misrepresentation to achieve a higher goal." According to Islamic tradition, concealing one's faith is permissible, but only in the face of a massive threat.

Finally...

Now everyone wants to know who the Muslim Brothers really are. The question is as pointless as asking whether Yusuf al-Qaradawi is moderate or not. He is both himself and the opposite of himself, depending on one's perspective -- and the circumstances.

But what is acceptable in quantum physics can be extremely dangerous in the business of politics.

COMMENT:  I think we're getting the idea.  Like the fascists of the 1930s, the Brotherhood will have a fifth column operating in the United States, through the universities, part of the press, and lobbyists.  And, like the fascists of the 1930s, the Brotherwood will convince some, and lull others to sleep.

February 16, 2011       Permalink

MIDEAST PROTESTS CONTINUE – AT 9:37 A.M. ET:  CNN, whose Mideast coverage has improved somewhat now that propagandist Christiane Amanpour has gone to ABC and ruined its ratings, reports on continuing, though limited disturbances in Iran and Arab countries:

On Wednesday, thousands of people gathered for a peaceful funeral procession for a Bahraini man killed when clashes erupted during the another protester's funeral procession, the president of a human rights group said.

Demonstrators picked up the body of Fadhel Matrook, 31, from a morgue Wednesday and marched to a cemetery with no police presence on the streets, said Nabeel Rajab, president of the Bahrain Center for Human Rights.

Bahrain is headquarters to the U.S. Fifth Fleet, so we have a defense interest as well as a commercial interest in this Gulf state.

And...

Libyan police clashed with protesters chanting anti-government slogans and demanding the release of a human rights activist early Wednesday, an independent source in the country told CNN.

The about 150-200 protesters in the coastal city of Benghazi were supporting human rights activist and lawyer Fathi Terbil, who had been detained earlier, the source said.

Several people were arrested after police confronted the protesters, the source said.

Too few demonstrators to make a difference.  It's tough to get TV cameras in.  The key question in Libya, as elsewhere, is whether there's enough fire to build a protest.

Thousands of people, many of them Iranian government supporters, turned up in Tehran on Wednesday for the funeral of a man killed in anti-government protests.

The gathering near Tehran University comes amid tension following a crackdown on anti-government protests.

Government officials said 26-year-old Saneh Jaleh was shot to death Monday by members of an outlawed group called the People's Mujahedeen of Iran. The group, which is also known as the Mojahedin-e Khalq Organization, has opposed the Iranian government for decades.

Government officials have also said that Jaleh was part of the pro-government Basij militia. But some who knew Jaleh dispute that account.

Odd story.  We usually hear of anti-government protests, but they've been put down violently in Iran, and Iranian leaders yesterday called for the execution of protest leaders.  However, there is a hard core of government supporters, and they're in the streets today.

And from Yemen:

A protest by Sanaa University students Wednesday started out as a demonstration calling for an improved curriculum but transitioned into an anti-government protest, and pro-government demonstrators threw rocks, two participants said.

Despite the rock-throwing, violence did not break out and there were no reports of injuries in the protests, the participants said.

The rally began with several hundred students protesting inside the university gates. Aside for calls for a better curriculum, they demanded the removal of the university dean and called for security forces to remain off-campus. The demonstration was organized by the head of the university's student union, said Omar Al-Nihmi, a third-year media student at the university.

COMMENT:  There are disturbances, yet.  But, so far, none of the despotic governments outside Egypt seems to be in danger of falling.  Protest movements sometimes take months to build.  That happened in Iran in the late 1970s, leading to the fall of the shah, an event hailed at the time by pro-democracy forces, but which ended tragically with the rise of the Iranian mullahs. 

February 16, 2011      Permalink

SOMETHING MISSING HERE – AT 8:52 A.M. ET:  President Obama gave out the Medal of Freedom yesterday, the nation's highest civilian honor, to 15 recipients.

Washington (CNN) -- President Barack Obama paid tribute to "the best of who we are and who we aspire to be" in awarding America's highest civilian honor Tuesday to 15 people, including former President George H.W. Bush, poet Maya Angelou, baseball slugger Stan Musial and cellist Yo-Yo Ma...

...Other recipients of the medal included Georgia congressman and civil rights leader John Lewis; Natural Resources Defense Council co-founder John Adams; German Chancellor Angela Merkel; investor Warren Buffett; artist Jasper Johns; Holocaust survivor Gerda Weissmann Klein; humanitarian activist Tom Little, who was killed in Afghanistan; civil rights activist Sylvia Mendez; Boston Celtics NBA legend Bill Russell; nonprofit leader and former Ambassador Jean Kennedy Smith; and AFL-CIO chief John Sweeney.

Now, I don't wish to quibble.  These are all fine people, but please notice what is missing.  There isn't a single scientist or engineer on that list.  But there are political people and people being paid back for their political support. 

This is a nation that wins a disproportionate number of the Nobel prizes in science – the real Nobel prizes, as opposed to the fraudulent "peace" prize – and yet not one scientist could be found. 

I think it says something about the values of this administration.  Science is important only when it can be used, incorrectly, to support the business of climate change.

February 16, 2011      Permalink

A TALE OF TWO PAPERS – AT 8:33 A.M. ET:  From the Washington Post:

President Obama cautiously criticized the Iranian government Tuesday for carrying out a deadly crackdown on street demonstrations, as hard-line legislators in Tehran called for the execution of several prominent opposition leaders.

Obama's careful formulation - calling on the government to allow protesters to express their grievances but stopping short of calling for a change in leadership - highlighted the sharp differences between the political dynamic that his administration faces in Iran and the one that shaped the recent revolt in Egypt.

From The New York Times:

President Obama accused Iran’s leaders of hypocrisy for first encouraging the protests in Egypt, which they described as a continuation of Iran’s own revolution, and then cracking down on Iranians who used the pretext to come out on the streets....

...Mr. Obama’s words on Iran...were among the strongest he has ever voiced in encouraging a street revolt, something his administration initially shied away from doing in June 2009, after a disputed presidential election provoked an uprising that was crushed by the government....

...“What’s been different is the Iranian government’s response, which is to shoot people and beat people and arrest people,” he said.

Oh well, it must be one or the other.

February 16, 2011      Permalink

THE BRITS WERE RIGHT – AT 8:06 A.M. ET:  Recently we were treated to smiling predictions that the successful cyber attack on Iran's nuclear program had set the country back three years.  There were high-fives all around.  But Britain's great defense minister, Liam Fox, one of the few gems left in Western governments, cautioned that he didn't think so.  Dr. Fox, a physician by training, was right.  Surveillance cameras installed by international inspectors told the story.  From WaPo:

In a six-month period between late 2009 and last spring, U.N. officials watched in amazement as Iran dismantled more than 10 percent of the Natanz plant's 9,000 centrifuge machines used to enrich uranium. Then, just as remarkably, hundreds of new machines arrived at the plant to replace the ones that were lost.

The story told by the video footage is a shorthand recounting of the most significant cyberattack to date on a nuclear installation. Records of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), the U.N. nuclear watchdog, show Iran struggling to cope with a major equipment failure just at the time its main uranium enrichment plant was under attack by a computer worm known as Stuxnet, according to Europe-based diplomats familiar with the records.

But the IAEA's files also show a feverish - and apparently successful - effort by Iranian scientists to contain the damage and replace broken parts, even while constrained by international sanctions banning Iran from purchasing nuclear equipment. An IAEA report due for release this month is expected to show steady or even slightly elevated production rates at the Natanz enrichment plant over the past year.

The Stuxnet attack was brilliant.  But how effective was it, bottom line?

A draft report by Washington-based nuclear experts concludes that the net impact was relatively minor.

Now, once again, experts are warning that the Iranians may well be within a year or so of a nuclear weapon.  This comes at a time when the Iranian regime is beating down protesters and even threatening them with execution.

We will, of course, be smugly told that all this doesn't matter, that Iran doesn't have the means to deliver an atomic bomb by plane or missile.  Nonsense.  No such capability is needed.  A nuclear device in the hold of a cargo ship, protected by a suicide crew, can take out the port of Baltimore, New York, or San Diego. 

Problem not solved.

February 16, 2011     Permalink