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AUGUST 26,  2011

SHORT TAKES ON THE DRIFTING WRECKAGE – AT 9:20 P.M. ET: 

GOOD NIGHT, IRENE – As you all know from the endless TV coverage, we have a bit of bother here in the East regarding a hurricane named Irene.  Now, I've made it plain in this space that I look upon all this with some skepticism, having been through endless episodes of dire weather forecasts followed by one snowflake or a raindrop.  So I will await our fate, armed with batteries and appropriately unhealthy snacks.  We in New York are not expected to be visited until Sunday, and we therefore have some time before the world ends.  If it does, I'll let you know.

DENNIS THE MENACE – We now learn that Dennis Kucinich, whose flakiness is unsurpassed in Congress, was invited to Libya by the Gaddafi folks in order to mediate the conflict.  But, apparently, peaceful Dennis was worried about his security...and so visited Syria instead.  Here's a man who'd turn down a visit to the lion's den in order to make common cause with rattlesnakes.  At last report Dennis hadn't been nominated for the Nobel Peace Prize, so we aren't sure exactly what he's done.

ARE REPUBLICANS NUTS? – There is a story circulating that Republican leaders in Congress have signed off to a plan that will allow the temporary easing of the payroll tax (the Social Security tax) to expire next year.  These are the same people who fought for an extension of the Bush tax breaks, which do indeed benefit the wealthiest Americans, claiming that not to extend them would amount to a tax increase.  But they now want to let the payroll tax break expire, impacting the middle class and below almost exclusively?  Are they mad?  Do they realize the backlash this would cause?  Or are they falling into some rhetorical trap.  I can just see the Democratic ads.  I hope this idea is a trial balloon, and not something more.  If it's a trial balloon, shoot it down, for it's political suicide, something at which Republicans are expert.

ALIVE? – In 1986 President Reagan ordered an air strike on Gaddafi's compound in Libya in retaliation for the killing of American servicemen in a cafe bombing in Germany.  After the strike the Libyan government announced that Gaddafi's adopted daughter had been killed in the raid.  However, it now turns out that she may well be very much alive and a physician, according to the Irish Times, which says it discovered documents yesterday in Gaddafi's now liberated headquarters in Tripoli that point to the daughter's life as an adult.  At the time, the left and the "third world" had a field day criticizing Reagan over the U.S. raid, pointing to the death of this innocent little girl.  Among the items the newspaper discovered was her passport photo, taken as an adult. 

August 26, 2011       Permalink

OBAMA'S ERODING BASE – AT 10:41 A.M. ET:  Until recently, President Obama appeared to have a base that would remain with him, no matter what.  Some of the loyalty was based on ethnic pride, some on fear of the Republicans, some on the belief that their 1960s moment had come.  But now part of the Obama base seems to be chipping away, at least for now.  From The Daily Caller:

A critical bloc of Democratic-aligned voters has lurched away from President Barack Obama’s campaign and won’t come back until Democrats develop a new “narrative,” warns a new survey by a Democratic polling firm.

The bloc of “unmarried women, people of color, and younger voters — comprises a rapidly growing majority of the eligible voting population in this country … [but they] are not hearing an economic narrative that speaks to their problems and concerns or convinces them that their leaders have the ability to solve those problems,” says the Aug. 24 report titled “Creating a New Economic Narrative; Engaging the Rising American Electorate for 2012.”

Other Democratic advocates corroborate the survey’s data. For example, AFL-CIO president Richard Trumka said Wednesday that fewer working-class voters will turn out in 2012 unless Obama can persuade them that their votes can change government policy. “Give them the narrative about why it will work,” he said at a press breakfast sponsored by The Christian Science Monitor.

Republicans advocates say they’re winning over women, youth and blue-collar voters partly because Obama’s government-focused economic policies have failed to reduce the unemployment rate.

Meanwhile, the Obama campaign’s Project Vote effort says it will work to ”engage key demographic groups, such as African Americans, Women, Youth, Latinos, LGBT, Veterans, Asian Americans and others.”

These voters are especially valuable to the Obama campaign because many have not registered or voted before, giving the campaign a change to increase its tallies amid expected losses among older and white voters.

The cynicism just flows, doesn't it?  Obama was the man who was going to unite America.

The Obama campaign sketched out its strategy for winning these “Project Vote” groups and for getting them to register for the ballot. “Project Vote will communicate with and engage targeted constituencies by reaching them where they are, in their communities and neighborhoods, and having one-on-one grassroots conversations about the issues they care about most – jobs, health care and education,” the statement said.

Do you see a policy statement in there?  I don't.

The decline has already damaged the Democrats. The "Rising American Electorate" voters gave 69 percent of their vote to Obama in 2010, but only 60 percent to Democrats in 2010, said the report.

COMMENT:  In recent days people on our side, from Michael Barone to Jeb Bush, have also cautioned Republicans about the current lack of a clear and coherent set of Republican policies.  That has got to be a priority.  The Dem policies may be a zero, but you probably won't beat a zero with another zero.  What we need is a new type of contract with America that unites the different elements within the Republican Party, and it must be something that is quickly understood by voters, who are looking for practical solutions, not ideology.

August 26, 2011       Permalink

DESPITE PLEDGE, SYRIAN REGIME FIRES ON PROTESTERS – AT 9:53 A.M. ET:  The Damascus regime had promised to stop firing on its own people, but the promise is being ignored.  Protests erupted again in Syria today.  Dictator Assad must be looking, with considerable apprehension, at what's happened to his pal Gaddafi in Libya.  is Assad next?  He's a tougher nut to crack, and, unlike the situation in Libya, Western nations are not talking intervention.  From Reuters: 

(Reuters) - Forces loyal to President Bashar al-Assad fired at protesters after Friday prayers in the Damascus suburb of Douma, as demonstrations flared anew across Syria in a sixth-month-old uprising against his autocratic rule, activists said.

"Protesters phoned in to say that two people have been killed, but this is an initial report still to be confirmed," an activist in Damascus told Reuters by phone.

Other activists and residents reported protests in cities and towns, many of which have been stormed by tanks, stretching from Deir al-Zor province in the east to Deraa in the south to the northwest province of Idlib.

They said demonstrations also cropped up in large cities such as Hama and Homs along the main highway leading to Turkey, and in districts of the capital Damascus.

"Gaddafi is gone, it is your turn Bashar!" shouted protesters in he town of Hirak northeast of Deraa, buoyed by the apparent overthrow of the Libyan strongman by rebels this week, according to a witness who spoke by phone.

COMMENT:  Syria is a critical Arab country, and Iran's closest ally in the Arab world.  And, I point out cautiously, there were a number of reports that Iraqi WMD were moved to Syria before the Iraq War.  That is unconfirmed, but must be looked at again if the regime in Damascus wobbles.

Assad is a very bad guy, but, again, we don't know exactly who the protesters are, and what they want for the future of their country.  But they don't deserve to be murdered in the streets.

August 26, 2011       Permalink

SNIPPET OF THE DAY – AT 9:42 A.M. ET: 

From The Politico:   Former New York Gov. George Pataki has decided not to seek the Republican nomination for president, sources confirm.

Oh, I'm just so disappointed.  But I'm glad to see he's still alive.

PATHETIC – AT 9:17 A.M. ET:  A new report just out shows just how weak the American economy is.  If this were a patient, a trip to the emergency room would be indicated.   From CNBC:

The U.S. economy grew much slower than previously thought in the second quarter as business inventories and exports were less robust, a government report showed on Friday, although consumer spending was revised up.

Gross domestic product growth rose at annual rate of 1.0 percent the Commerce Department said, a downward revision of its prior estimate of 1.3 percent. It also said after-tax corporate profits rose at the fastest pace in a year.

Dismal growth.  Good corporate profits, but the corporations are afraid to spend their money.  It's the uncertainty factor, and for good reason.

Economists had expected output growth to be revised down to 1.1 percent. In the first quarter, the economy advanced just 0.4 percent. The government's second GDP estimate for the quarter confirmed growth almost stalled in the first six months of this year.

The United States is on a recession watch after a massive sell-off in the stock market knocked down consumer and business sentiment. The plunge in share prices followed Standard & Poor's decision to strip the nation of its top notch AAA credit rating and a spreading sovereign debt crisis in Europe.

While sentiment has deteriorated, data such as industrial production, retail sales and employment suggest the economy could avoid an outright contraction.

COMMENT:  Given this administration's record, they'll probably make things as bad as they can be.  Obama must go, and the thought of a Republican president taking the oath a year from January brings smiles.  But winning the election, as we regularly point out here, is not a done deal.  I think it will be very close, unless one side implodes politically.

August 26, 2011       Permalink

THOSE LIBYAN WEAPONS – AT 8:38 A.M. ET:  We were struck by a report that the price for shoulder-to-air missiles on the black market has dropped, probably indicating that those Libyan weapons are already being sold outside the country.  This could create a real tragedy down the line.  From Fox:

It's a polite faceoff of spies vs. diplomats, as the Obama administration debates how aggressively to pursue Libya's vast weapons stores, including tons of caustic mustard agent and thousands of anti-aircraft rockets that experts fear could fall into the hands of terrorists or Libyan loyalists.

The State Department wants to wait for fighting to abate before moving throughout Libya to locate and secure fugitive leader Muammar Qaddafi's massive weapons stores, according to two U.S. officials. It's also stressing working through the nascent Libyan rebel government.

Some U.S. intelligence officials have been pushing to expand the CIA's role in Libya to track down the weaponry faster, unilaterally without the rebels' help if necessary. They fear the rockets in particular may be quickly sold, ending up with al-Qaida or fueling a Libyan insurgency for years to come, the officials say.
Already, the prices of the shoulder-launched missiles called MANPADs have fallen on the regional black market, the officials say, suggesting some of Qaddafi's stores are already being sold.

While many of the aging rockets may not work, the Soviet-era missiles can take down a helicopter or civilian jetliner.

The White House has resisted calls to expand the CIA's covert mission, just as it has ruled out deploying U.S. troops on the ground in Libya, one current and one former U.S. official said. The administration is pushing instead for other NATO partners to step in and take up the hunt.

COMMENT:  This is a pretty critical part of the mission.  I'm not sure I'd want to trust NATO.  Apparently there wasn't much planning, if any, for collecting Libyan stockpiles.  Please notice the lack of media criticism of Obama over that, and contrast with the hail of criticism that President Bush endured over planning for post-war Iraq. 

August 26, 2011     Permalink

AUGUST 25,  2011

SHORT TAKES ON THE DRIFTING WRECKAGE – AT 10:20 P.M. ET: 

IRENE – There is a hurricane coming up the East coast.  The TV news operations are on top of every drop of rain.  And yet, from what I see here in New York, there is more calmness than dread.  In part I think this is because so many predictions of horrible storms – hurricanes and blizzards – proved to be wildly exaggerated.  I think we're seeing a "boy who cried wolf" syndrome.  The fact is that some news and weather operations hype every storm because, let's face it, it's great for ratings.  But when the catastrophe falls apart, people are less likely to worry at the next prediction of disaster.  I always wondered what would happen if the real thing occurred, and we really got slammed.  We may find out this weekend.

WHERE OBAMA STANDS – New poll results from the key states of New Jersey and Florida will not bring smiles to the summer White House in Martha's Vineyard.  In Florida, 51% would vote for Romney, only 43% for Obama, who carried the state in 2008.  Perry would lead 46-45.  In New Jersey, 43% in this Democratic state believe Obama deserves a second term, whereas 47% say no.  A New Jersey poll last week reported 52% of respondents disapproving of the president, with 44% approving.  If Obama loses both New Jersey and Florida, it's hard to see him winning.  But the election is still more than a year away, and these numbers are more fun than convincing.  The president knows what he has to do.  He is an excellent campaigner, with the media at his back.  Don't send the moving van to the White House just yet.

THERE GOES THE DO-IT-YOURSELF BOOKCASE – Sweden was officially neutral in World War II, and the Cold War, but some locals did their bit for the dark side.  Now there are charges that the founder of Ikea, Ingvar Kamprad, was heavily involved in promoting the Nazi Party in Sweden, and stayed in touch with Nazi supporters after the war.  Kamprad dismisses his Nazi activities as the product of youth.  I doubt if this will have much effect on Ikea, one of the more successful Swedish exports still owned by Swedes, but it reminds us that when American men were dying in the fight against fascism, some countries that now hold themselves up as moral exemplars had citizens engaged in some very nasty stuff.  

ELECTABLE? – Peggy Noonan is the latest member of the Republican establishment to raise electability questions about Rick Perry, arguing that voters may see him as narrow and mean-spirited.  There is clearly a growing split within the GOP, and a number of observers are looking forward to major Republican debates coming up to see how Perry performs.  Noonan recalled that Ronald Reagan was called a cowboy, and worse, by the media establishment, but destroyed that accusation by the grace and poise he showed in debates.  Can Perry do the same, or will he reinforce the image that opponents are trying to hang on him?  Look to September as the critical month for Perry.  If he does well, he can bring it home.  If he flops in the debates, he can be another flameout.

August 25, 2011     Permalink 

LIBYA UPDATE – AT 10:20 A.M. ET:  Rebels claim they have the famous Libyan colonel and his sons surrounded in an apartment complex.  From Reuters:

TRIPOLI - A group of rebels besieging a cluster of apartment buildings near the Bab al-Aziziyah compound of Muammar Gaddafi said on Thursday that they believed the man who led Libya for four decades was hiding in the buildings with some of his sons.

Rebels were exchanging fire with Gaddafi loyalists inside the buildings. They did not say why they believed Gaddafi and his sons were inside.

"They are together. They are in a small hole," said one of the fighters involved in the battle, Muhammad Gomaa. "Today we finish. Today we will end that."

Libyan commandos fighting Muammar Gaddafi came close to capturing the toppled leader on Wednesday when they raided a private home in Tripoli where he appeared to have been hiding, Paris Match magazine said on Thursday.

Citing a source in a unit which it said was coordinating among intelligence services from Arab states and Libyan rebels, the French weekly said on its website that these services believed Gaddafi was still somewhere in the Libyan capital.

Gaddafi was gone from the unassuming safe house in central Tripoli when agents arrived about 10 a.m. (0800 GMT) on Wednesday after a tip-off from a credible source. But, the magazine said, they found evidence that he had spent at least one night there -- though it did not say how recently that was.

Britain's Defense Minister Liam Fox said on Thursday that NATO is supporting Libyan rebels hunting Gaddafi and his sons and has stepped up air raids targeting loyalists.

COMMENT:  If Gaddafi holds out long enough, he could be a contestant on an American reality show.  In fact, "Catch the Dictator," with Donald Trump as host, could make a fortune.  Make sure to catch the tribute to Saddam Hussein.

Fighting is ongoing.  There's no evidence the colonel has left the country.  I suspect they'll get him eventually, maybe even today.

August 25, 2011      Permalink

SNIPPET OF THE DAY – AT 9:40 A.M. ET:

BRISTOL, Tenn. (AP) - Police in Tennessee were called to a funeral home where workers found two intruders sleeping inside caskets.  The employees at Weaver's Funeral Home in Bristol called police around 10:30 a.m. on Tuesday after finding two men asleep in caskets. The men fled through a window after police were alerted, the Bristol Herald Courier reports.  One man escaped, but police caught and arrested Barrett Lance Hartsock, who was charged with burglary and vandalism over $1,000.  Police said there was more than $9,000 in damage done to the caskets the two men were sleeping in.

Now wait.  They're saying that $9,000 in damage was done to caskets...by sleeping in them?  What does that tell you about these caskets?  What does that tell you about the cost of funerals?  Are you feeling uneasy?

BREAKING THE SILENCE – AT 9:08 A.M. ET:  And it's about time.  The Martin Luther King Jr. memorial in Washington is being dedicated this week.  There's been a lot of soft buzz – political correctness prevents louder comments – that the sculpture of King is entirely inappropriate for an American memorial. 

The critics are right.  And now a black Washington Post columnist speaks out about a work of "art" that was sculpted by a Chinese sculptor loyal to the Beijing regime.  That in itself has raised eyebrows.  Was not an American artist available?  From Accuracy in Media: 

A Washington Post columnist has criticized the new Martin Luther King, Jr. monument, while his paper is publishing a 24-page special supplement hailing the unveiling of the “Stone of Hope” in the memorial that includes the 30-foot tall statue of the civil rights leader.

Black columnist Courtland Milloy writes, “Let’s face it: There really is something peculiar about having an artist from communist China sculpt the Martin Luther King Jr. Memorial statue. And, yes, it would have been fantastic had an African American sculptor been chosen instead.”

He is correct.  But you may be sure there'll be no questions asked by the mainstream media.  Anyone who questions will immediately be accused of "McCarthyism."

He adds, “The sculpture is based on a 1966 photograph of King taken in his office in Atlanta, standing at his desk, with a picture of Indian leader Mohandas Gandhi on a wall in the background. In it, King has soft eyes and an open face that conveys the blessed assurance of a man who walks by faith. Lei Yixin has turned those eyes into something of a steely squint. The result is a stern colossus, dressed no less in a style of suit similar to ones found on many statues of Stalin.”

Milloy goes on to complain about the fact that the sculptor and the monument are from China. He writes, “…the fact remains that Lei hails from a country that oppresses ethnic minorities, exploits its workers, and jails human-rights activists and the attorneys who try to defend them. In their day, King and civil rights lawyer Thurgood Marshall would likely have been taken by the Red Guard and never heard from again.”

Wonderfully said.

Back in 2008, another Post columnist, Marc Fisher, complained that the planned monument depicted King “in the arrogant stance of a dictator, clad in a boxy suit, with an impassive, unapproachable mien, looking more like an East Bloc Politburo member than an inspirational, transformational preacher who won a war armed with nothing but truth and words.”

COMMENT:  The monument is an embarrassment, but we must ask why this had to be.  Have we come to the point where the political left is so powerful that a monstrosity like this can be created with only token opposition?  I'm afraid it is. 

One of the sad but true aspects of the civil rights movement is that it was heavily influenced by the far left.  I recall, as a student at the University of Chicago, seeing this truth displayed all the time.  And yet, that too is an undiscussable subject. 

Let the discussion begin, if only in a whisper:

August 25, 2011       Permalink

CHINA CLOSING IN – AT 8:49 A.M. ET:  We are cutting our military budgets, and the cuts may go far deeper than military experts advise.  But now we have a detailed view of what China is doing at the same time.  Of course, we can't anger them that much because they hold so much of our debt.  What a mess we are in.  From the Washington Times:

China made impressive gains last year in its military buildup that pushed the Communist Party-controlled People’s Liberation Army closer to matching modern militaries, according to the Pentagon’s annual report to Congress made public Wednesday.

“Militarily, China’s sustained modernization program is paying visible dividends,” the report says. “During 2010, China made strides toward fielding an operational anti-ship ballistic missile, continued work on its aircraft carrier program, and finalized the prototype of its first stealth aircraft.”

The report cautions that the Chinese military continues to lack key military capabilities, is equipped with large amounts of outdated hardware, and lacks operational experience. But the report concludes that the army “is steadily closing the technological gap with modern armed forces.”

By the end of this decade, China will be able to project military power and sustain a modest-sized force of naval and ground forces for smaller conflicts “far from China.” That assessment was not included in earlier annual reports to Congress.

China recently began sea trials of a refurbished Soviet-era aircraft carrier and is developing a ballistic missile to target ships at sea, the report says.

It also is continuing aggressive cyber-intelligence gathering and has targeted numerous computer systems around the world, the report says, noting the intrusions “appear to have originated within” China.

“These intrusions were focused on exfiltrating information,” the report says, adding that the same skills can be used for “computer network attacks” in warfare.

COMMENT:  It takes years to develop modern weapons and train people to use them.  As we cut our budget, skills and lead time will be lost.  We have never had a situation quite like this – when a potential adversary builds its military force, we cut ours, and the adversary controls much of our national debt.

Getting out of this requires extraordinary leadership.  Last time we looked, the president was playing golf again.

August 25, 2011       Permalink

JOBLESS CLAIMS UP – AT 8:40 A.M. ET:  The spinners are already out, saying it isn't that bad, but jobless figures released minutes ago paint a picture of an economy that is sick.  From Bloomberg:

Claims for U.S. unemployment benefits unexpectedly rose last week, pushed up for a second time by a labor dispute at Verizon Communications Inc.

Jobless claims climbed by 5,000 to 417,000 in the week ended Aug. 20, Labor Department figures showed today in Washington. Economists surveyed by Bloomberg News projected a drop in claims to 405,000, according to the median forecast. At least 8,500 applications were filed by workers at Verizon last week, compared with 12,500 the prior week, a department spokesman said as the data was released to the press.

The report signals that excluding the communications dispute, companies are slowing the pace of firings, which may ease concern that consumers will cut back on spending. At the same time, an unemployment rate at 9.1 percent is a reminder that a sustained labor-market rebound has yet to develop two years into the economic recovery.

COMMENT:  Even taking Verizon into account – and remember that there are always strikes somewhere – these are awful figures.  Anything over 400,000 is considered bad.  I'm delighted, and warm all over, at Bloomberg's report that "companies are slowing the pace of firings."  I'm sure that makes the unemployed feel much better.  "Well, Captain Smith, the Titanic is going down at a slower pace than 20 minutes ago.  Enjoy."

August 25, 2011     Permalink