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AUGUST 23,  2011

SHORT TAKES ON THE DRIFTING WRECKAGE - AT 9:58 P.M. ET:

DOWN, DOWN, DOWN – Obama might try to blame George W. Bush for the earthquake, but nothing seems to be working for him these day.  Gallup now reports his approval rating at 38%, the lowest Gallup has ever recorded for this president.  His disapproval stands at 54%.   And Rasmussen reports that Obama has reached -26 in Ras's presidential approval index, also the lowest ever recorded for the president.  However, Rasmussen also is reporting that Obama retains 44% support among independents.  Despite overall dismal numbers, he cannot be counted out.  We still don't know who the Republican nominee will be, or how he or she will perform.

GADDAFI SINKING – The colonel's compound in Tripoli has been taken by the rebels.  At the same time, Gaddafi, speaking by radio from somewhere, promised victory or death.  The rebels are claiming they control 90% of the country, but claims by either side should be taken with caution.  At the same time, there is growing concern in the West about Libya's stockpiles of weapons, which include deadly chemicals, raw nuclear materials, and an estimated 30,000 shoulder-fired rockets.  Terrorism experts fear that some of these items can fall into the hands of terror groups, local or foreign.  The situation in Libya is still fluid.  We don't know exactly what, or who, will emerge from all this.

VERY CLOSE IN NY –  The Republican National Committee has taken a sudden interest in the September 13th special election in New York City to replace disgraced Congressman Anthony Weiner.  The district has been considered safe for the Democrats, but polling shows an unusually close race.   Republican challenger Bob Turner has the support of former Democratic Mayor Ed Koch.  The reason for the closeness is President Obama's unpopularity, which is dragging the Democratic candidate, David Weprin.  It's now reported that the national GOP will start spending money on the race, especially for get-out-the-vote efforts.  But it will not be much.  The smart money still has to be on the Democrat, and the district will probably be eliminated in redistricting anyway. 

SHOW OFF – Jon Huntsman, appearing on CNN, has announced that he's going to be president...in Chinese.  This has the dandies in absolute ecstasy, as no one else running for president can speak Chinese.  This apparently is now a major qualification.  Heck, I grew up in New York and have been reading Chinese menus all my life, and I'm especially good on the lunchtime combination specials.  Would someone please place my name in nomination at the convention?   I'll find out the Chinese equivalent.  We have a rally planned with gongs.

August 23, 2011       Permalink 

THE GREAT PANIC OF 2011 – AT 8:56 P.M. ET:  We had an earthquake on the East coast today, and it was a fine old affair.  Great shaking, TV programs interrupted.  The epicenter was in Virginia, and was the largest shake Virginia has had since 1897, or maybe since the day former Senator John Warner married Elizabeth Taylor.

We felt it in New York.  In fact, I was standing next to a floor lamp in our bunker in White Plains when there was slight shaking.  I heard the globes on the lamp rattling, and, recalling how difficult it was to find those glass globes, heroically grabbed them and placed them on a couch, thereby doing my bit for national preservation.  Compliments and tributes will be accepted.

It is reported that the president of the United States, on the links in Martha's Vineyard, was not affected by the quake.  No golf balls moved inappropriately on the greens, we were relieved to learn.

The reaction in New York City was, as usual, a bit theatrical.  There was some minor shaking in some places, so a small number of buildings in Manhattan were evacuated.  Naturally, reporters rushed into the streets with microphones to get the expected "it was just like 9-11" reactions.  As they say, there's no business like show business.  We await TV appearances by "mental health professionals" who will warn of post-shake nightmares, bad thoughts and insurance claims.

Nonsense.

Easterners do not know what a proper earthquake is like.  Having inconveniently been in two Los Angeles area quakes, I can attest.  I was working on The Tonight Show in 1971, during the first episode.   The show was still based in New York, but we flew out to L.A. every eight weeks for three weeks.  I was sleeping soundly in the Sheraton-Universal Hotel – you may recall that Carson referred to it as the Sheraton Impossible – when, at 6:01 A.M. on February 9th, I was abruptly awakened by major shaking and the grinding sound of the Earth moving.  The first thing I saw were drawers flying out of a bureau.  I only hoped that my underwear was not seriously injured.  I jumped out of bed, went to the window (not a good idea, as glass could be flying) and watched the lights in the San Fernando Valley go out, block by block.  (You're actually supposed to go to a doorframe and stand beneath it.  It should hold up if things around start crumbling.)  After throwing on some clothes, I rushed into the corridor to see members of the Tonight Show staff running from rooms they shouldn't have been in.   The potential for blackmail immediately occurred to me.

We all went downstairs to the lobby.  Ed McMahon stayed with the staff in the hotel, but Carson was in his home in Bel Air.  Ed, a terrific guy, was a calming influence.  He took none of this seriously.  We were fortunate that no one in the hotel was injured.  But there were injuries and deaths elsewhere.  The quake took 65 lives. 

We did the show as usual that night, but, during the taping, there was a serious aftershock, almost causing panic in the audience.  This time it was Carson who calmed the crowd.

I also happened to be in L.A. for the 1994 Northridge quake, which also occurred a bit before dawn, and which cost more than 60 lives and did major damage.  I was staying with friends, whose house was filled with glass after the quake.  One thing you learn in California quake country is to sleep with a pair of shoes, placed upside down, and a flashlight next to your bed.  The first thing you do if you're awakened by a quake is to switch on the light and get into your shoes.  If placed upside down they shouldn't have glass in them.  Then you can walk around safely. 

I did drive down Ventura Boulevard that day, and it was like a war zone.  Parts of buildings, signs and marquees were lying all over the place.  There were cracks in sidewalks.  The quake even closed production companies, which actually surprised me since industry neuroses usually send the insecure to their offices, even in a disaster.

Those were serious quakes.  We got off easy today.  My Virginian daughter reported major shaking, but no serious damage where she was, in central Virginia.  However, Al Gore was spotted taking local temperatures.

August 23, 2011      Permalink 

HISPANIC-AMERICANS COOLING ON OBAMA – AT 10:26 A.M. ET:  A new Gallup Poll shows President Obama running into serious trouble among the nation's Hispanic-American voters, despite a recent change in immigration rules clearly designed to attract Hispanic votes: 

In the same week that Homeland Security Secretary Janet Napolitano announced that her department was going to review the cases of 300,000 illegal aliens in deportation proceedings and allow “low priority” cases to stay in the country and receive work permits—a move House Judiciary Chairman Lamar Smith called a “back door amnesty”—President Barack Obama’s approval dropped to an all-time low of 44 percent among Hispanics, according to Gallup polling data released today.

That is a drop of 41 points from the spring of 2009, when Obama’s approval among Hispanic Americans peaked at 85 percent (in the weeks that ended April 26, 2009 and May 17, 2009).

Obama’s approval among Hispanics dropped 5 points last week alone, falling from 49 percent in the week that ended Aug. 14 to its new low of 44 percent in the week that ended Aug. 21.

COMMENT:  It is hard to see how President Obama can win next year if he continues at that level among Hispanic voters.  Hispanic-Americans are the fastest-growing voting bloc in America. 

We should caution, of course, that the Hispanic community is very diverse.  The Mexican-American may have very different views from the Cuban-American.  Here in New York, we don't even think of the Puerto Rican community as being similar to immigrant communities from, say, Ecuador.  It's critical for observers, and those running campaigns, to go beyond ethnic clichés, and to listen to what individual voters are saying.

August 23, 2011       Permalink   

SNIPPET OF THE DAY – AT 9:58 A.M. ET:

(Reuters) - General Motors Co (GM.N) is seeking to dismiss a lawsuit over a suspension problem on more than 400,000 Chevrolet Impalas from the 2007 and 2008 model years, saying it should not be responsible for repairs because the flaw predated its bankruptcy.

Now there's a way to win new customers from the likes of Honda and Toyota.  Just keep the buyers as angry as possible.  But, ah, it does remind us of the good old days, doesn't it?  The rattles, the failures, the car windows that wouldn't go up.  At least GM is true to tradition.

NOT READY FOR PRIME TIME – AT 9:17 A.M. ET:  I'm afraid that's the judgment we have to make about former Utah Governor Jon Huntsman, now running for the GOP presidential nomination, after serving a stint as Obama's ambassador to China. 

Huntsman hardly registers in current polls.  His graph is about the same as that of a guy who's just been pronounced dead at a better hospital.  He tried to shake things up over the weekend with an outlandish, over-the-top attack on his Republican competitors, something that created high consternation in the Republican Party and much buzz around the internet.  Pollster Frank Luntz predicted that the attack would be vigorously rejected within the party, and it has been.

Now Huntsman comes out with this, from Fox:

WASHINGTON – Republican presidential hopeful Jon Huntsman says he'd be open to running as vice president if rival and tea party favorite Michele Bachmann wins the nomination.

The former Utah governor, who was appointed ambassador to China by President Barack Obama, says that every time he's been asked to serve his country he's answered "yes." He resigned his China ambassadorial post earlier this year.

Huntsman told CNN interviewer Piers Morgan on Monday that if asked by the Minnesota congresswoman to run as her vice president he'd "be the first person to sign up, absolutely."

COMMENT:  Geez.  Now, of course, Huntsman tried to backtrack, saying he expected to win the nomination.  But saying you'd agree to serve as Michele's v.p. isn't exactly a winning statement.

Okay, Jon, you've introduced yourself.  Now please return to the private sector and live to fight another day.  Just don't say you'd agree to serve as Sarah Palin's social secretary. 

August 23, 2011        Permalink

WHAT WE OWE – AT 8:42 A.M. ET:  Andrew Malcolm at the L.A. Times's Top of the Ticket blog, has a stunning report on our national debt, and its history during the Obama administration.  How did we let things get this far? 

Swallow all liquids in your mouth before reading any further.

Updated numbers for the national debt are just out: It's now $14,639,000,000,000.

When Barack Obama took the oath of office twice on Jan. 20, 2009, CBS' amazing number cruncher Mark Knoller reports, the national debt was $10,626,000,000,000.

A gentle correction.  Obama didn't take the oath twice on January 20th.  He took the oath the second time on the evening of January 21st. 

That means the debt that our federal government owes a whole lot of somebodies including China has increased $4,247,000,000,000 in just 945 days. That's the fastest increase under any president ever.

Remember the day the Democrat promised to close the embarrassing Guantanamo Bay Detention Facility within one year? That day the national debt increased $4,247,000,000. And each day since that the facility hasn't been closed.

Same for the day in 2009 when Obama flew all the way out to Denver to sign the $787 billion stimulus bill that was going to hold national unemployment beneath 8% instead of the 9.1% we got today anyway? Another $4,247,000,000 that day. And every day since, even Obama golfing and vacation days.

Same sum for the day Obama flew Air Force One nearly four hours roundtrip to Columbus, Ohio for a 10-minute speech about how well the stimulus was working in the politically crucial Buckeye state. Ohio's unemployment rate just jumped to 9% from 8.8% anyway.

COMMENT:  And imagine, our children will have the honor of paying for this.  I hope they thank our political leaders and pay appropriate homage.  Perhaps a statue of Obama, eating an ice cream cone, outside the Treasury Department.

August 23, 2011       Permalink

SHADES OF THE BUNKER, 1945 – AT 8:17 A.M. ET:  We learned in the last 24 hours how careful we have to be about reports from Libya.  One commentator said that, in Libya, lying is the national pastime. 

Claims that Gaddafi's son, Saif al-Islam, who heads the army, was captured, turned out to be false.  Also false were reports that Gaddafi was in Algeria.  We actually don't know where he is, but we do know for certain that the international airport near Tripoli is now in rebel hands, making a Gaddafi escape by air highly problematical.

At the same time, all reports this morning speak of fighting in Tripoli, with indications that the final victory of the rebels might be delayed.  Some rebel units were pushed back yesterday.  But today the rebels are fighting to break into Gaddafi's personal compound, the seat of his power for years:

(Reuters) - Libyan rebels battled on Tuesday around Muammar Gaddafi's headquarters, where a son of the veteran leader had emerged overnight to confound reports of his capture and to rally cheering loyalists for a rearguard fightback.

NATO jets flew in support of the rebels, who said they were trying to break into Gaddafi's fortified Bab al-Aziziya compound. His son and presumed heir Saif al-Islam had earlier told a crowd that his father was well and still in Tripoli.

Heavy smoke drifted across the city center and a Reuters correspondent at a government-controlled hotel near the sprawling compound heard heavy gunfire and explosions. NATO declined comment on whether it had struck Bab al-Aziziya.

COMMENT:  This reminds us of the Red Army's assault on Hitler's bunker in the spring of '45.  The reporting is hour by hour, minute by minute.  One key question, of course, is whether Gaddafi is in the bunker.  (If he is, I doubt if he's with Eva Braun.)   If he's there, will he fight to the end, allow himself to be captured, or do an Adolf. 

But the other key question, and much more consequential, is what comes next.  We really don't know that much about many of the rebel factions.  The front men seem okay, but the front men in the Egyptian revolution seemed like decent chaps as well.  Americans are haunted by the specter of another Iran. 

Stay tuned. 

August 23, 2011     Permalink 

AUGUST 22,  2011

SHORT TAKES ON THE DRIFTING WRECKAGE – AT 9:45 P.M. ET:

RYAN BOWS OUT – After a week of intense speculation, and pushing by the Weekly Standard, Representative Paul Ryan of Wisconsin has announced that he will not seek the Republican nomination for president.  Of course, I have no doubt that he could be drafted for the second spot.  That leaves Sarah Palin, Rudy Giuliani and Chris Christie as potential entrants.  Of the three, Sarah seems closest to plunging in.  Indeed, she's dropped plenty of hints.  Rudy is still deciding, as Rudy is always still deciding.  By the time he decides, the race will be over.  Christie denies any interest, and, as I've argued before, Republicans greatly exaggerate his appeal beyond New Jersey.  That leaves the current field of candidates, and a divided party that wishes the field were stronger.

STRANGE THINGS IN LIBYA – The press is now backtracking on some earlier reports from Libya.  The whereabouts of Gadaffi remain unknown.  One of his sons, the head of the army, reported captured by the rebels, apparently has not been captured.  President Obama declared the battle for Libya all but over, however reports tell of renewed counterattacks by loyalist forces in Tripoli.  It does appear that the rebels are winning handily, but they've clearly made exaggerated claims in the last 24 hours.  The battle is not over.  At the same time, a draft constitution emphasizing Sharia law has surfaced, substantially adding to the worry that we may be heading for a very turbulent and controversial post-revolutionary period.  Will we yearn for Gadaffi?

OBAMA NOT GALLUPING – A new Gallup survey of registered voters shows that any of the leading GOP candidates would give President Obama a run for his money if the election were held today.  But, as the old political adage goes, if the election were held today I'd be very surprised.  None of the GOP contenders would win a clear victory, but Mitt Romney is two points ahead of the president, the only contender to actually to be ahead.  These polls, at this stage, essentially measure the strength of the incumbent, as few Americans have concentrated enough on the challengers to form a full opinion.  The president registers in the high 40s, a few points higher than his average approval rating in recent days.

SHAKEUP AT S&P – Fox News is reporting that the president of Standard & Poor's, which recently ran into a buzz saw after lowering the credit rating for the United States for the first time in our history, has resigned.  Aside from taking heat over the credit-lowering move, S&P is reportedly under investigation by the Justice Department for assorted other sins.  This "resignation" gives the appearances of a personnel sacrifice to appease critics of the firm.  There's no indication that it will do anything for our credit rating. 

August 22, 2011       Permalink

LIBYA UPDATE – AT 10:02 A.M. ET:  The Libyan regime of Muammar Gaddafi continues to crumble today, but the exact whereabouts of the cross-dressing head of state have not been offically confirmed:

(Reuters) - Libyan government tanks and snipers put up scattered, last-ditch resistance in Tripoli on Monday after rebels swept into the heart of the capital, cheered on by crowds hailing the end of Muammar Gaddafi's 42 years in power.

The 69-year-old leader, urging civilians to take up arms against rebel "rats", said in an audio broadcast that he was in the city and would be "with you until the end". But there was little sign of popular opposition to the rebel offensive, two of Gaddafi's sons were seized and it was unclear where he was.

Reuters correspondents saw rebel forces hunt sharpshooters from building to building. Sporadic gunfire and shelling kept civilians off the streets, waiting anxiously for the fighting to end after a brief outpouring of jubilation late on Sunday.

"Revolutionaries are positioned everywhere in Tripoli," said a senior rebel in the city, who used the name Abdulrahman.

"But Gaddafi's forces have been trying to resist..."

COMMENT:  BBC reported that Gaddafi is in Algeria, but it's possible he's still looking for places to go.  He apparently has a colorful brochure from Martha's Vineyard. 

It's reported that two of the colonel's sons have been captured by the rebels.  There is much chatter that at least one may well be tried by the International Court of Justice in the Hague, but some rebel groups want him tried in Libya.

Further details as they come in.

August 22, 2011       Permalink

KAMIKAZE – AT 9:18 A.M. ET:  Is Jon Huntsman on a suicide mission?  The former Utah governor and current candidate for the Republican presidential nomination, has launched an outlandish attack on his GOP rivals.  Even by political standards, which are low enough, this is over the top.  It will win Huntsman some notice, but will win him no friends and will not get him the nomination.  From the Washington Post:

Former Utah Gov. Jon Huntsman Jr., looking to jump-start a slumbering presidential campaign, ripped into his Republican rivals Sunday, saying the field has “zero substance” and saving his harshest comments for front-runners Mitt Romney, Michele Bachmann and Rick Perry.

“I wouldn’t necessarily trust any of my opponents right now, who were on a recent debate stage with me, when every single one of them would have allowed this country to default,” Mr. Huntsman said on ABC’s “This Week.”

Mr. Huntsman, who has campaigned as a “center-right” candidate, said the other Republican candidates, as well as President Obama, are out of the political mainstream: “Right now, this country is crying out for a sensible middle ground. Right now, we have people on the fringes … . We have zero substance.”

The candidate’s dismissal of the Republican field — except for himself — drew immediate applause from the Democratic National Committee, which sent out a mass email Sunday afternoon highlighting the former Utah governor’s remarks.

The email, under the heading “Don’t take our word for it,” broke out several of the most incendiary quotes from the interview.

Republican pollster Frank Luntz, who appeared later on the same program, warned that Mr. Huntsman’s decision to go negative could backfire in the upcoming GOP primaries.

“Republicans don’t want to hear Republicans attacking other Republicans,” Mr. Luntz said.

And...

Mr. Huntsman — who said via Twitter on Thursday that “I believe in evolution and trust scientists on global warming” — criticized Mr. Perry’s skeptical comments last week about global warming.

I could never understand why evolution is a presidential issue.  As for global warming, I think we ought to trust scientists, too.  The problem is, which scientists?  True, most scientists, include many who don't know a thing about climate, are on the climate-change bandwagon.  But the number and quality of those who aren't simply can't be ignored.

Science isn't about numbers on board.  It's about proof and observation.  What many are saying is that the proof just isn't there to win acceptance of the sweeping "science" of global warming, and that observation often negates the most extreme claims.  We need more work on this.

“The minute the Republican Party becomes the anti-science party … we find ourselves in a losing position,” Mr. Huntsman said. “I think when you find yourself at the extreme end of the Republican Party, you make yourself unelectable.”

Look, that is true.  But it is also an undeserved indictment of his competitors.  I've been critical of Rick Perry, and his getting into a discussion in New Hampshire about evolution was not a smart move.  But I can't say he's anti-science.  Romney certainly isn't.  Michele Bachmann?  She's deeply religious, but that doesn't make her anti-science.  I think that when you suggest that you can't ask questions of scientists, that may be anti-science, and it is certainly anti-intellectual.

Huntsman has a perfect right to criticize his rivals, but his interview was over the top and sounded desperate.  Not a good thing. 

August 22, 2011       Permalink

NOW IT COMES OUT – AT 8:50 A.M. ET:  Some stunning figures about the 2008-9 bailouts of Wall Street have come to light.  Strange, but we didn't have these figures before.  Maybe "don't ask, don't tell" has become the mantra of the mainstream media.

Even pro-free enterprise conservatives have been startled by the sheer amounts involved here.  And they raise profound questions about institutions becoming so big that they can bring down the entire economy.  I don't know if any laws were violated, but none of the bigwigs who got their companies into such distress have done any time, although there have been widespread calls for major investigations.  When you've got clout in Washington, investigations tend to melt away.  From Bloomberg:

Citigroup Inc. (C) and Bank of America Corp. (BAC) were the reigning champions of finance in 2006 as home prices peaked, leading the 10 biggest U.S. banks and brokerage firms to their best year ever with $104 billion of profits.

By 2008, the housing market’s collapse forced those companies to take more than six times as much, $669 billion, in emergency loans from the U.S. Federal Reserve. The loans dwarfed the $160 billion in public bailouts the top 10 got from the U.S. Treasury, yet until now the full amounts have remained secret.

Fed Chairman Ben S. Bernanke’s unprecedented effort to keep the economy from plunging into depression included lending banks and other companies as much as $1.2 trillion of public money, about the same amount U.S. homeowners currently owe on 6.5 million delinquent and foreclosed mortgages. The largest borrower, Morgan Stanley (MS), got as much as $107.3 billion, while Citigroup took $99.5 billion and Bank of America $91.4 billion, according to a Bloomberg News compilation of data obtained through Freedom of Information Act requests, months of litigation and an act of Congress.

“These are all whopping numbers,” said Robert Litan, a former Justice Department official who in the 1990s served on a commission probing the causes of the savings and loan crisis. “You’re talking about the aristocracy of American finance going down the tubes without the federal money.” 

COMMENT:  I think they call this corporate welfare.  Some may even call it a steppingstone to socialism.  But everyone should call it an outrage.  It is true that the government has gotten back most, if not all, of the bailout money.  But we should be asking the hard questions about how "private" firms with so much sway over the economy got into such trouble.  We should make sure it doesn't happen again.  But we won't.

August 22, 2011      Permalink

AS THE PRESIDENT VACATIONS – AT 8:11 A.M. ET:  We're very determined at Urgent Agenda to cover foreign policy and national security, even as attention shifts to our presidential campaign and the economy.  Averting our eyes from foreign threats doesn't eliminate the threats – it simply means we'll get a more costly surprise down the line. 

This is an important story, and it gives us chills:

(Reuters) - Iran has started moving the machines that enrich uranium for nuclear fuel from its main atomic complex in the central city of Natanz to an underground bunker near the holy city of Qom, its top nuclear official was quoted as saying on Monday.

"Transferring Natanz centrifuges to Fordow (near Qom) is under way with full observance of standards," Fereydoun Abbasi-Davani told state broadcaster IRIB. "Fordow's facilities are being prepared and some centrifuges have been transferred."

Iran announced in June that it would shift its production of higher-grade uranium to the underground site at Fordow, in defiance of international calls on Tehran to halt uranium enrichment which some countries say is aimed at developing nuclear bombs, a charge Iran denies.

Iran only disclosed the existence of Fordow to the U.N. nuclear watchdog in September 2009 after learning that Western intelligence agencies had detected the mountain site.

Moving sensitive nuclear work to the underground bunker could offer greater protection against any attacks by Israel or the United States, which have both said they do not rule out pre-emptive strikes to stop Iran getting nuclear weapons.

COMMENT:  I don't think an attack by the U.S. is in the cards under this administration.  Obama has shown very little alarm over Iran's nuclear program, and indifference to the suppression of the Iranian people.  As for Israel, its capabilities are limited, especially if the targets are fully hardened.  And I doubt if it could get even tacit approval from this White House.

At this rate, Iran will have the bomb.  And that technology can be spread to Iran's allies.  It is not a happy thought, and will change the balance of power in the region.  A nuclear Iran will immediately act to bring Iraq into its orbit on one side, and Afghanistan on the other.  A weakened United States, with an aimless president and a slashed defense budget, may offer little or no resistance.

August 22, 2011     Permalink