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I appeared on Silvio Canto Jr.'s talk show from Dallas last night.  It's here.

AUGUST 22,  2011

SHORT TAKES ON THE DRIFTING WRECKAGE – AT 9:45 P.M. ET:

RYAN BOWS OUT – After a week of intense speculation, and pushing by the Weekly Standard, Representative Paul Ryan of Wisconsin has announced that he will not seek the Republican nomination for president.  Of course, I have no doubt that he could be drafted for the second spot.  That leaves Sarah Palin, Rudy Giuliani and Chris Christie as potential entrants.  Of the three, Sarah seems closest to plunging in.  Indeed, she's dropped plenty of hints.  Rudy is still deciding, as Rudy is always still deciding.  By the time he decides, the race will be over.  Christie denies any interest, and, as I've argued before, Republicans greatly exaggerate his appeal beyond New Jersey.  That leaves the current field of candidates, and a divided party that wishes the field were stronger.

STRANGE THINGS IN LIBYA – The press is now backtracking on some earlier reports from Libya.  The whereabouts of Gadaffi remain unknown.  One of his sons, the head of the army, reported captured by the rebels, apparently has not been captured.  President Obama declared the battle for Libya all but over, however reports tell of renewed counterattacks by loyalist forces in Tripoli.  It does appear that the rebels are winning handily, but they've clearly made exaggerated claims in the last 24 hours.  The battle is not over.  At the same time, a draft constitution emphasizing Sharia law has surfaced, substantially adding to the worry that we may be heading for a very turbulent and controversial post-revolutionary period.  Will we yearn for Gadaffi?

OBAMA NOT GALLUPING – A new Gallup survey of registered voters shows that any of the leading GOP candidates would give President Obama a run for his money if the election were held today.  But, as the old political adage goes, if the election were held today I'd be very surprised.  None of the GOP contenders would win a clear victory, but Mitt Romney is two points ahead of the president, the only contender to actually to be ahead.  These polls, at this stage, essentially measure the strength of the incumbent, as few Americans have concentrated enough on the challengers to form a full opinion.  The president registers in the high 40s, a few points higher than his average approval rating in recent days.

SHAKEUP AT S&P – Fox News is reporting that the president of Standard & Poor's, which recently ran into a buzz saw after lowering the credit rating for the United States for the first time in our history, has resigned.  Aside from taking heat over the credit-lowering move, S&P is reportedly under investigation by the Justice Department for assorted other sins.  This "resignation" gives the appearances of a personnel sacrifice to appease critics of the firm.  There's no indication that it will do anything for our credit rating. 

August 22, 2011       Permalink

LIBYA UPDATE – AT 10:02 A.M. ET:  The Libyan regime of Muammar Gaddafi continues to crumble today, but the exact whereabouts of the cross-dressing head of state have not been offically confirmed:

(Reuters) - Libyan government tanks and snipers put up scattered, last-ditch resistance in Tripoli on Monday after rebels swept into the heart of the capital, cheered on by crowds hailing the end of Muammar Gaddafi's 42 years in power.

The 69-year-old leader, urging civilians to take up arms against rebel "rats", said in an audio broadcast that he was in the city and would be "with you until the end". But there was little sign of popular opposition to the rebel offensive, two of Gaddafi's sons were seized and it was unclear where he was.

Reuters correspondents saw rebel forces hunt sharpshooters from building to building. Sporadic gunfire and shelling kept civilians off the streets, waiting anxiously for the fighting to end after a brief outpouring of jubilation late on Sunday.

"Revolutionaries are positioned everywhere in Tripoli," said a senior rebel in the city, who used the name Abdulrahman.

"But Gaddafi's forces have been trying to resist..."

COMMENT:  BBC reported that Gaddafi is in Algeria, but it's possible he's still looking for places to go.  He apparently has a colorful brochure from Martha's Vineyard. 

It's reported that two of the colonel's sons have been captured by the rebels.  There is much chatter that at least one may well be tried by the International Court of Justice in the Hague, but some rebel groups want him tried in Libya.

Further details as they come in.

August 22, 2011       Permalink

KAMIKAZE – AT 9:18 A.M. ET:  Is Jon Huntsman on a suicide mission?  The former Utah governor and current candidate for the Republican presidential nomination, has launched an outlandish attack on his GOP rivals.  Even by political standards, which are low enough, this is over the top.  It will win Huntsman some notice, but will win him no friends and will not get him the nomination.  From the Washington Post:

Former Utah Gov. Jon Huntsman Jr., looking to jump-start a slumbering presidential campaign, ripped into his Republican rivals Sunday, saying the field has “zero substance” and saving his harshest comments for front-runners Mitt Romney, Michele Bachmann and Rick Perry.

“I wouldn’t necessarily trust any of my opponents right now, who were on a recent debate stage with me, when every single one of them would have allowed this country to default,” Mr. Huntsman said on ABC’s “This Week.”

Mr. Huntsman, who has campaigned as a “center-right” candidate, said the other Republican candidates, as well as President Obama, are out of the political mainstream: “Right now, this country is crying out for a sensible middle ground. Right now, we have people on the fringes … . We have zero substance.”

The candidate’s dismissal of the Republican field — except for himself — drew immediate applause from the Democratic National Committee, which sent out a mass email Sunday afternoon highlighting the former Utah governor’s remarks.

The email, under the heading “Don’t take our word for it,” broke out several of the most incendiary quotes from the interview.

Republican pollster Frank Luntz, who appeared later on the same program, warned that Mr. Huntsman’s decision to go negative could backfire in the upcoming GOP primaries.

“Republicans don’t want to hear Republicans attacking other Republicans,” Mr. Luntz said.

And...

Mr. Huntsman — who said via Twitter on Thursday that “I believe in evolution and trust scientists on global warming” — criticized Mr. Perry’s skeptical comments last week about global warming.

I could never understand why evolution is a presidential issue.  As for global warming, I think we ought to trust scientists, too.  The problem is, which scientists?  True, most scientists, include many who don't know a thing about climate, are on the climate-change bandwagon.  But the number and quality of those who aren't simply can't be ignored.

Science isn't about numbers on board.  It's about proof and observation.  What many are saying is that the proof just isn't there to win acceptance of the sweeping "science" of global warming, and that observation often negates the most extreme claims.  We need more work on this.

“The minute the Republican Party becomes the anti-science party … we find ourselves in a losing position,” Mr. Huntsman said. “I think when you find yourself at the extreme end of the Republican Party, you make yourself unelectable.”

Look, that is true.  But it is also an undeserved indictment of his competitors.  I've been critical of Rick Perry, and his getting into a discussion in New Hampshire about evolution was not a smart move.  But I can't say he's anti-science.  Romney certainly isn't.  Michele Bachmann?  She's deeply religious, but that doesn't make her anti-science.  I think that when you suggest that you can't ask questions of scientists, that may be anti-science, and it is certainly anti-intellectual.

Huntsman has a perfect right to criticize his rivals, but his interview was over the top and sounded desperate.  Not a good thing. 

August 22, 2011       Permalink

NOW IT COMES OUT – AT 8:50 A.M. ET:  Some stunning figures about the 2008-9 bailouts of Wall Street have come to light.  Strange, but we didn't have these figures before.  Maybe "don't ask, don't tell" has become the mantra of the mainstream media.

Even pro-free enterprise conservatives have been startled by the sheer amounts involved here.  And they raise profound questions about institutions becoming so big that they can bring down the entire economy.  I don't know if any laws were violated, but none of the bigwigs who got their companies into such distress have done any time, although there have been widespread calls for major investigations.  When you've got clout in Washington, investigations tend to melt away.  From Bloomberg:

Citigroup Inc. (C) and Bank of America Corp. (BAC) were the reigning champions of finance in 2006 as home prices peaked, leading the 10 biggest U.S. banks and brokerage firms to their best year ever with $104 billion of profits.

By 2008, the housing market’s collapse forced those companies to take more than six times as much, $669 billion, in emergency loans from the U.S. Federal Reserve. The loans dwarfed the $160 billion in public bailouts the top 10 got from the U.S. Treasury, yet until now the full amounts have remained secret.

Fed Chairman Ben S. Bernanke’s unprecedented effort to keep the economy from plunging into depression included lending banks and other companies as much as $1.2 trillion of public money, about the same amount U.S. homeowners currently owe on 6.5 million delinquent and foreclosed mortgages. The largest borrower, Morgan Stanley (MS), got as much as $107.3 billion, while Citigroup took $99.5 billion and Bank of America $91.4 billion, according to a Bloomberg News compilation of data obtained through Freedom of Information Act requests, months of litigation and an act of Congress.

“These are all whopping numbers,” said Robert Litan, a former Justice Department official who in the 1990s served on a commission probing the causes of the savings and loan crisis. “You’re talking about the aristocracy of American finance going down the tubes without the federal money.” 

COMMENT:  I think they call this corporate welfare.  Some may even call it a steppingstone to socialism.  But everyone should call it an outrage.  It is true that the government has gotten back most, if not all, of the bailout money.  But we should be asking the hard questions about how "private" firms with so much sway over the economy got into such trouble.  We should make sure it doesn't happen again.  But we won't.

August 22, 2011      Permalink

AS THE PRESIDENT VACATIONS – AT 8:11 A.M. ET:  We're very determined at Urgent Agenda to cover foreign policy and national security, even as attention shifts to our presidential campaign and the economy.  Averting our eyes from foreign threats doesn't eliminate the threats – it simply means we'll get a more costly surprise down the line. 

This is an important story, and it gives us chills:

(Reuters) - Iran has started moving the machines that enrich uranium for nuclear fuel from its main atomic complex in the central city of Natanz to an underground bunker near the holy city of Qom, its top nuclear official was quoted as saying on Monday.

"Transferring Natanz centrifuges to Fordow (near Qom) is under way with full observance of standards," Fereydoun Abbasi-Davani told state broadcaster IRIB. "Fordow's facilities are being prepared and some centrifuges have been transferred."

Iran announced in June that it would shift its production of higher-grade uranium to the underground site at Fordow, in defiance of international calls on Tehran to halt uranium enrichment which some countries say is aimed at developing nuclear bombs, a charge Iran denies.

Iran only disclosed the existence of Fordow to the U.N. nuclear watchdog in September 2009 after learning that Western intelligence agencies had detected the mountain site.

Moving sensitive nuclear work to the underground bunker could offer greater protection against any attacks by Israel or the United States, which have both said they do not rule out pre-emptive strikes to stop Iran getting nuclear weapons.

COMMENT:  I don't think an attack by the U.S. is in the cards under this administration.  Obama has shown very little alarm over Iran's nuclear program, and indifference to the suppression of the Iranian people.  As for Israel, its capabilities are limited, especially if the targets are fully hardened.  And I doubt if it could get even tacit approval from this White House.

At this rate, Iran will have the bomb.  And that technology can be spread to Iran's allies.  It is not a happy thought, and will change the balance of power in the region.  A nuclear Iran will immediately act to bring Iraq into its orbit on one side, and Afghanistan on the other.  A weakened United States, with an aimless president and a slashed defense budget, may offer little or no resistance.

August 22, 2011     Permalink

AUGUST 21,  2011

SHORT TAKES ON THE DRIFTING WRECKAGE – AT 11:03 P.M. ET:

ASSAD SAYS NYET – Syrian President Assad has refused a request from President Obama that he step down.  No one was surprised by Assad's rebuff.  The United States has little sway over Syria, and Syrian governments traditionally have shown contempt for American officials, even having ambassadors and secretaries of state wait hours for appointments with Syrian bigwigs.  Assad promised elections by February, a meaningless promise unless we know just how those elections will be organized, and who will be permitted to run.

TIN EAR – Why is it that some politicians can't relate to the feelings of the individual voter?  The latest tin ear to make an awkward appearance belongs to Mitt Romney.  It is announced that Romney plans to nearly quadruple the size of his $12-million beachfront California mansion.  (I thought he was from Massachusetts.  Or is it Michigan?)  A Romney campaign official said the change was needed to accommodate a growing family.  There's nothing like doing something really tacky, right in the middle of a presidential campaign and a massive national recession.  But for those of you with growing families, expansion of your $12-million homes is definitely the way to go...if you can find good help.

DSK TO BE CLEARED – Updating a story we carried yesterday, a number of news organizations are now reporting that Manhattan (NY) District Attorney Cyrus Vance Jr. will definitely request a judge to drop all charges against former International Monetary Fund head Dominique Straus-Kahn.  DSK, as he's widely called, was charged with sexual assault by a hotel maid, whose credibility apparently lies in tatters.  One issue, here, as we noted, is whether leaders of the black community will let the matter rest, or start demonstrations on behalf of the maid, which could get out of hand during a long, hot summer.  It is also reported that the maid's lawyer is under investigation for obstruction of justice.  DSK would be free to return to France, where, until this charge, he was considered a leading candidate for president.  It is uncertain whether he can resume his political career.

August 21, 2011       Permalink 

BULLETIN:  GADAFFI REGIME CRUMBLING – AT 6:46 P.M. ET:   Reports are flying.  A number of sources, including the sometimes accurate BBC, say that Gadaffi has escaped to Algeria.  The rebels are claiming that his number one son, Saif al-Islam Gadhafi, the head of the army, has been captured.

There is fighting in Tripoli, the capital, but remarkably little resistance.  It does appear that the rebels may well be in practical control of the city, and much of the country, soon.

But serious questions remain.  CNN reports that many rebel units are not under a central command and refuse to join it.  There are profound questions as to who the rebels are, and who will actually control Libya once the regime is entirely out of the way.  Will democracy blossom?  Or will we have another Iran, where the lunatics take over?  Next door to Libya is Egypt, whose own revolution isn't going so well. 

So, the defeat of Gadaffi brings with it no guarantees.  We can, though, rejoice that a thug is gone.

There are political implications for President Obama.  If Gadaffi has indeed been toppled, he will take a bow, and may well deserve it.  He can argue that we got regime change without American troops on the ground, and contrast that with Iraq.  Of course, the situations are entirely different, but in politics many don't work the details.  Obama may well be seen as victorious. 

However, if the Libyan revolution turns sour, Obama might well then be faulted for naiveté, backing rebels who produced an even worse situation. 

As they say, the situation is fluid.  It changes by the hour.

August 21, 2011       Permalink

OBAMA THE PROFOUND – AT 11:19 A.M. ET:  What a mind!  What an intellect!  What phrasing!  It's such a pleasure, after BUSH (!!) and CHENEY (!!!!) to have such an articulate philosopher in the White House, a man who grasps the subtleties that others miss.  Consider:

(Reuters) - President Barack Obama said on Sunday he expects to be judged in the 2012 election over his governance of the American economy, which he said was still not growing fast enough.

Brilliant.  Just so brilliant. 

"For me to argue, look, we've actually made the right decisions, things would have been much worse has we not made those decisions -- that's not that satisfying if you don't have a job right now," Obama told CBS in an interview taped last week and aired during his annual vacation in Martha's Vineyard, an island near Boston.

His understanding of the peasantry – can anyone equal it?

"I understand that and I expect to be judged a year from now on whether or not things have continued to get better," he said.

Yes, yes.  Only he, the One, understands that things are getting better.  Don't you believe your lying eyes.

The unemployment rate has been stuck above 9 percent and growth was very weak in the first half of 2011, causing many Americans to question whether Obama's stimulus and bailout measures following the financial crisis worked.

Oh those silly questions.  Those people cling to their guns and their religion, and can't possibly understand. 

Asked about the past month's stock market drop, Obama said concerns about the U.S. recovery were contributing to investor jitters, along with "headwinds" from Europe's debt crisis, high gas prices and knock-on effects from Japan's earthquake.

It's the foreigners, don't you see?  Especially those pesky allies.  And those gas prices!  Now, don't let anyone tell you that they're caused in part by our refusal to expand oil exploration in the U.S.  Has nothing to do with it.  It's all those American drivers burning up the road while they still cling to those same guns and that old religion.

I'm so frustrated.  We have such brilliance in the White House, but the proletariat just doesn't understand.

August 21, 2011        Permalink

OUTRAGE – AT 10:31 A.M. ET:  What's left of the film industry is about to come out with a movie that insults and distorts the life of Margaret Thatcher, one of Britain's great prime ministers and a third of the triumvirate of Reagan, Thatcher and Pope John Paul II who changed the world in the 1980s.   From London's Daily Mail:

Friends of Margaret Thatcher last night expressed their revulsion at a new film that shows her having nightmares about the miners’ strike and the Falklands War, while her late husband Denis appears as a ghost in a pink turban raging at her -‘insufferable’ selfishness.

Viewers invited to an early screening of the film, The Iron Lady, starring Meryl Streep as the former Prime Minister and Jim Broadbent as Sir Denis, were aghast at the way that it mocks her frail condition in recent years.
One called it ‘insulting’. Another said: ‘I didn’t come here to see a film about granny going mad.’

And...

Conservative MP Conor Burns, one of her closest confidants, said last night: ‘Any portrayal of Margaret Thatcher that does not show her as one of the titans of British politics in the 20th Century will be a travesty.

‘The idea that Denis would ever have been cruel to her is twisted and untrue. They were devoted.’

COMMENT:  Some years ago the fashionable crowd in Hollywood made a film about the Reagans that was so bad, and biased, that CBS refused to show it.  You'd think Hollywood would have learned.

However, the main objective of many in what passes for the film industry is to be on the A-party list.  To be part of the political in-crowd.  To have Bill Clinton put his arm on your shoulder.  The invitation is, today, the stuff of Hollywood dreams.  True history is distorted, and "artistic freedom" will be the defense.  The "filmmakers" will be feted on the left, and they'll have their 15 minutes of fame.

Some movie makers still can make fine historical films, as "The King's Speech," last year's Oscar winner for best picture, showed.  It's too bad the makers of the Thatcher film chose to go downscale.

August 21, 2011        Permalink

SUING FOR PEACE? – AT 10:15 A.M. ET:  We report everything from Libya with caution, but a new plea by the Gadaffi government suggests that it may be nearing the breaking point:

Libya's government is calling for an immediate cease-fire between rebels and forces loyal to leader Muammar al-Qaddafi after an opposition-led attack, coordinated with NATO airstrikes, rocked the country's capital.
Libyan rebels said they were less than 20 miles from Muammar al-Qaddafi's main stronghold of Tripoli on Sunday, a day after opposition fighters launched their first attack on the city.

The rebels said Saturday that gunbattles and mortar rounds rocked the city during the attack. NATO aircraft also made heavy bombing runs after nightfall, with loud explosions booming across the city.

We doubt if the government would call for a cease-fire if its forces were chalking up victories.

At the same time, Gadaffi himself has made the most serious charge of all.  From CBS News:

As Libya's rebels fought their way into the capital city, Tripoli, for the first time since the uprising began six months ago, state TV broadcast what seemed to be an audio message from their dictator, Muammar Gadaffi.

What was intended to be a message of strength and defiance instead came across as bizarre and slightly desperate, according to the many who listened in.

"You destroy our air conditioners," Gadaffi is reported as saying, according to CNN's Matthew Chance.

COMMENT:  I didn't know we could be so cruel as to destroy air conditioners.  If it is true, I propose a day of reflection to contemplate what we've become.

August 21, 2011     Permalink