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AUGUST 21,  2011

SHORT TAKES ON THE DRIFTING WRECKAGE – AT 11:03 P.M. ET:

ASSAD SAYS NYET – Syrian President Assad has refused a request from President Obama that he step down.  No one was surprised by Assad's rebuff.  The United States has little sway over Syria, and Syrian governments traditionally have shown contempt for American officials, even having ambassadors and secretaries of state wait hours for appointments with Syrian bigwigs.  Assad promised elections by February, a meaningless promise unless we know just how those elections will be organized, and who will be permitted to run.

TIN EAR – Why is it that some politicians can't relate to the feelings of the individual voter?  The latest tin ear to make an awkward appearance belongs to Mitt Romney.  It is announced that Romney plans to nearly quadruple the size of his $12-million beachfront California mansion.  (I thought he was from Massachusetts.  Or is it Michigan?)  A Romney campaign official said the change was needed to accommodate a growing family.  There's nothing like doing something really tacky, right in the middle of a presidential campaign and a massive national recession.  But for those of you with growing families, expansion of your $12-million homes is definitely the way to go...if you can find good help.

DSK TO BE CLEARED – Updating a story we carried yesterday, a number of news organizations are now reporting that Manhattan (NY) District Attorney Cyrus Vance Jr. will definitely request a judge to drop all charges against former International Monetary Fund head Dominique Straus-Kahn.  DSK, as he's widely called, was charged with sexual assault by a hotel maid, whose credibility apparently lies in tatters.  One issue, here, as we noted, is whether leaders of the black community will let the matter rest, or start demonstrations on behalf of the maid, which could get out of hand during a long, hot summer.  It is also reported that the maid's lawyer is under investigation for obstruction of justice.  DSK would be free to return to France, where, until this charge, he was considered a leading candidate for president.  It is uncertain whether he can resume his political career.

August 21, 2011       Permalink 

BULLETIN:  GADAFFI REGIME CRUMBLING – AT 6:46 P.M. ET:   Reports are flying.  A number of sources, including the sometimes accurate BBC, say that Gadaffi has escaped to Algeria.  The rebels are claiming that his number one son, Saif al-Islam Gadhafi, the head of the army, has been captured.

There is fighting in Tripoli, the capital, but remarkably little resistance.  It does appear that the rebels may well be in practical control of the city, and much of the country, soon.

But serious questions remain.  CNN reports that many rebel units are not under a central command and refuse to join it.  There are profound questions as to who the rebels are, and who will actually control Libya once the regime is entirely out of the way.  Will democracy blossom?  Or will we have another Iran, where the lunatics take over?  Next door to Libya is Egypt, whose own revolution isn't going so well. 

So, the defeat of Gadaffi brings with it no guarantees.  We can, though, rejoice that a thug is gone.

There are political implications for President Obama.  If Gadaffi has indeed been toppled, he will take a bow, and may well deserve it.  He can argue that we got regime change without American troops on the ground, and contrast that with Iraq.  Of course, the situations are entirely different, but in politics many don't work the details.  Obama may well be seen as victorious. 

However, if the Libyan revolution turns sour, Obama might well then be faulted for naiveté, backing rebels who produced an even worse situation. 

As they say, the situation is fluid.  It changes by the hour.

August 21, 2011       Permalink

OBAMA THE PROFOUND – AT 11:19 A.M. ET:  What a mind!  What an intellect!  What phrasing!  It's such a pleasure, after BUSH (!!) and CHENEY (!!!!) to have such an articulate philosopher in the White House, a man who grasps the subtleties that others miss.  Consider:

(Reuters) - President Barack Obama said on Sunday he expects to be judged in the 2012 election over his governance of the American economy, which he said was still not growing fast enough.

Brilliant.  Just so brilliant. 

"For me to argue, look, we've actually made the right decisions, things would have been much worse has we not made those decisions -- that's not that satisfying if you don't have a job right now," Obama told CBS in an interview taped last week and aired during his annual vacation in Martha's Vineyard, an island near Boston.

His understanding of the peasantry – can anyone equal it?

"I understand that and I expect to be judged a year from now on whether or not things have continued to get better," he said.

Yes, yes.  Only he, the One, understands that things are getting better.  Don't you believe your lying eyes.

The unemployment rate has been stuck above 9 percent and growth was very weak in the first half of 2011, causing many Americans to question whether Obama's stimulus and bailout measures following the financial crisis worked.

Oh those silly questions.  Those people cling to their guns and their religion, and can't possibly understand. 

Asked about the past month's stock market drop, Obama said concerns about the U.S. recovery were contributing to investor jitters, along with "headwinds" from Europe's debt crisis, high gas prices and knock-on effects from Japan's earthquake.

It's the foreigners, don't you see?  Especially those pesky allies.  And those gas prices!  Now, don't let anyone tell you that they're caused in part by our refusal to expand oil exploration in the U.S.  Has nothing to do with it.  It's all those American drivers burning up the road while they still cling to those same guns and that old religion.

I'm so frustrated.  We have such brilliance in the White House, but the proletariat just doesn't understand.

August 21, 2011        Permalink

OUTRAGE – AT 10:31 A.M. ET:  What's left of the film industry is about to come out with a movie that insults and distorts the life of Margaret Thatcher, one of Britain's great prime ministers and a third of the triumvirate of Reagan, Thatcher and Pope John Paul II who changed the world in the 1980s.   From London's Daily Mail:

Friends of Margaret Thatcher last night expressed their revulsion at a new film that shows her having nightmares about the miners’ strike and the Falklands War, while her late husband Denis appears as a ghost in a pink turban raging at her -‘insufferable’ selfishness.

Viewers invited to an early screening of the film, The Iron Lady, starring Meryl Streep as the former Prime Minister and Jim Broadbent as Sir Denis, were aghast at the way that it mocks her frail condition in recent years.
One called it ‘insulting’. Another said: ‘I didn’t come here to see a film about granny going mad.’

And...

Conservative MP Conor Burns, one of her closest confidants, said last night: ‘Any portrayal of Margaret Thatcher that does not show her as one of the titans of British politics in the 20th Century will be a travesty.

‘The idea that Denis would ever have been cruel to her is twisted and untrue. They were devoted.’

COMMENT:  Some years ago the fashionable crowd in Hollywood made a film about the Reagans that was so bad, and biased, that CBS refused to show it.  You'd think Hollywood would have learned.

However, the main objective of many in what passes for the film industry is to be on the A-party list.  To be part of the political in-crowd.  To have Bill Clinton put his arm on your shoulder.  The invitation is, today, the stuff of Hollywood dreams.  True history is distorted, and "artistic freedom" will be the defense.  The "filmmakers" will be feted on the left, and they'll have their 15 minutes of fame.

Some movie makers still can make fine historical films, as "The King's Speech," last year's Oscar winner for best picture, showed.  It's too bad the makers of the Thatcher film chose to go downscale.

August 21, 2011        Permalink

SUING FOR PEACE? – AT 10:15 A.M. ET:  We report everything from Libya with caution, but a new plea by the Gadaffi government suggests that it may be nearing the breaking point:

Libya's government is calling for an immediate cease-fire between rebels and forces loyal to leader Muammar al-Qaddafi after an opposition-led attack, coordinated with NATO airstrikes, rocked the country's capital.
Libyan rebels said they were less than 20 miles from Muammar al-Qaddafi's main stronghold of Tripoli on Sunday, a day after opposition fighters launched their first attack on the city.

The rebels said Saturday that gunbattles and mortar rounds rocked the city during the attack. NATO aircraft also made heavy bombing runs after nightfall, with loud explosions booming across the city.

We doubt if the government would call for a cease-fire if its forces were chalking up victories.

At the same time, Gadaffi himself has made the most serious charge of all.  From CBS News:

As Libya's rebels fought their way into the capital city, Tripoli, for the first time since the uprising began six months ago, state TV broadcast what seemed to be an audio message from their dictator, Muammar Gadaffi.

What was intended to be a message of strength and defiance instead came across as bizarre and slightly desperate, according to the many who listened in.

"You destroy our air conditioners," Gadaffi is reported as saying, according to CNN's Matthew Chance.

COMMENT:  I didn't know we could be so cruel as to destroy air conditioners.  If it is true, I propose a day of reflection to contemplate what we've become.

August 21, 2011     Permalink

AUGUST 20,  2011

SHORT TAKES ON THE DRIFTING WRECKAGE – AT 9:03 P.M. ET:

GETTING TIGHT IN LIBYA – You have to be careful about taking everything that comes out of Libya at face value, but it does appear that the rebels are now fighting for the capital of Tripoli, where, presumably, Muammar Gadaffi is hiding, counting his frequent flier miles.  There have also been battles reported in other parts of Libya, with the rebels winning some, and loyalists winning others.  Is this the endgame?  We don't know.  We aren't even sure who the rebels are and where their loyalties lie.  But there is a growing feeling that Gadaffi's days in "power" are numbered.

OUTMIGRATION? – A Dubai-based newspaper asks in an editorial whether Americans will leave America if job opportunities appear in other countries.  The paper asks, provocatively, whether there will someday be "Americatowns" in Chinese cities.  The fact is that there was some serious outmigration during the Great Depression, with a number of immigrants returning to their native countries.  And we know that the flow of illegal immigrants into the United States has slowed dramatically as a result of hard times here.  But I really doubt that native-born Americans will leave the U.S., except for extreme economic opportunity.   Unless free wi-fi is involved.

DEMS PANIC IN WEINER'S DISTRICT – Disgraced and resigned Democratic Congressman Anthony Weiner represented a district in New York considered absolutely safe.  No great campaigns required.  Just truck the Dem voters to the polls on election day.  But now a minor panic has broken out among Democratic officials, who realize that the district may go, gulp, Republican.  Republican candidate Bob Turner has the support of former Mayor (and lifelong Democrat) Ed Koch, and a recent poll showed him within six points of Dem nominee David Weprin.  Barack Obama's numbers are in free fall in New York State, which isn't helping Weprin.  Dems are trying to scare voters by claiming that Turner will take away their Social Security and Medicare.

PENNSYLVANIA SLIPPING FOR OBAMA – AT 9:28 P.M. ET:  No Dem since Harry Truman in 1948 has won the presidency without carrying Pennsylvania.  But a new poll puts President Obama's approval rating in the state at 35%.  The economy is clearly the main factor.  If Pennsylvania remains competitive in 2012, you may be sure Republicans will remind voters of Obama's 2008 comments about the state, made privately...that people in Pennsylvania, when confronting their fears, cling to their guns and their religion.  First time around, even that statement didn't break through the hypnotizing effect of Obamamania.  Pennsylvania voted for him.  This time around?  I wouldn't be so sure.

August 20, 2011     Permalink

TROUBLE AHEAD IN NEW YORK? – AT 11:17 A.M. ET:  The Dominique Strauss-Kahn case hasn't been in the headlines recently, but it's about to return, and there is potential for racial unrest, should some irresponsible elements choose to exploit it.

You'll undoubtedly recall that Kahn, then president of the International Monetary Fund, was charged with sexual assault by a maid in a New York hotel.  The charge itself cost Kahn his job.  Kahn, who has a reputation for womanizing, was presumed guilty.  It later turned out, however, that the maid had substantial credibility problems and had apparently been deceptive in interviews with authorities.  It was widely reported that Manhattan District Attorney Cyrus Vance Jr. was seriously considering dropping the charges against Strauss-Kahn.

The maid is a woman of color, and some community leaders are leading rallies, demanding that the charges against Strauss-Kahn be pursued, and that he be tried.  But D.A. Vance must ultimately decide whether he can get a conviction, considering the accuser's reportedly considerable baggage.  There are also reports, unconfirmed, that the maid would settle the case for dollars. 

The problem here is that, if Vance drops charges, irresponsible leaders looking to advance themselves could call for protests.  We have seen flash mobs all over the country this summer, and what is clearly not needed is an irritant in New York.  Vance is set to announce his decision this week.  From The New York Times:

With Cyrus R. Vance Jr., the Manhattan district attorney, seemingly poised to announce on Tuesday whether he will seek dismissal of the charges in the sexual assault case against Dominique Strauss-Kahn, it is clear that his decision has the potential to carry political ramifications.

Letitia James, a Brooklyn councilwoman, plans to hold a rally on Monday afternoon in front of the courthouse in Manhattan urging Mr. Vance to proceed with the case against Mr. Strauss-Kahn, the former head of the International Monetary Fund.

And Kenneth P. Thompson, the lawyer for the hotel housekeeper who accused Mr. Strauss-Kahn of assaulting her in Manhattan in May, plans to hold a news conference outside the courthouse after Mr. Vance announces his decision. Mr. Thompson’s law partner is expected to hold a parallel news conference in Paris.

Hints of the possible political fallout from the case have been apparent ever since Mr. Vance revealed in June that his office had serious questions about the credibility of Mr. Strauss-Kahn’s accuser.

Vance is a decent guy, the son of the late Secretary of State Cyrus Vance, who served in the Carter administration.  He'll have problems no matter what he decides, but those who know him believe he'll decide his course on the merits.

It will be fascinating to see how The Times, a paper notorious for political correctness in racial cases, handles the decision.

August 20, 2011       Permalink

OUTRAGE – AT 10:38 A.M. ET:  Iran has sentenced two American hikers who drifted into Iranian territory to eight years in prison, claiming that they were "spies."  From AP:

TEHRAN, Iran — Two American men already held for two years in Tehran have been sentenced to 8 years each in prison on charges of espionage and illegal entry into Iran, state TV reported Saturday.

The announcement appeared to dash hopes for the imminent release of Shane Bauer and Josh Fattal after Iran’s foreign minister suggested earlier this month that the trial could clear the way for their freedom.

The Americans deny the charges and say they were only hiking in a scenic and largely peaceful area of northern Iraq near the Iranian border.

COMMENT:  Iran has not presented a single shred of evidence against the Americans.  I must label this as informed speculation, but I suspect the real reason for the sentences is to have American hostages.  Most of us recall the hostage crisis of 1979, and what it did to the Carter administration.  Knowing that there are Americans imprisoned in Iran would weigh heavily on any American president considering, for instance, an attack on Iran's nuclear program. 

Iran has now been formally charged by American officials with fomenting terror attacks in both Iraq and Afghanistan.  Its nuclear program proceeds, without effective intervention by the "international community."  And yet, it has disappeared from the front pages of American newspapers.

By the way, please note that fringe Republican candidate for president, Ron Paul, actually defends Iran and its drive for a nuclear weapon.  He did so quite openly during the last presidential debate, asserting that we are responsible for Iran's behavior.  I hope more people become familiar with Ron Paul's eccentric and inept foreign-policy views before he's taken seriously.

August 20, 2011       Permalink

WHERE OBAMA STANDS – AT 10:18 A.M. ET:  RealClearPolitics has the aggregate of polls of President Obama's job approval at 43.6% approve, 50.3% disapprove. 

However, that aggregate average includes polls with a variety of track records.  Gallup is showing 40% approval, 53% disapproval.  Gallup had Obama down to 39% earlier in the week.  Rasmussen, which polls likely voters, has Obama at 45% approve, 53% disapprove.

So we can reasonably assume that a slight majority of those polled – and it can vary from "all adults" to "likely voters, depending on the poll" – now disapprove of the president's job performance, and that 40-45% approve. 

Those are poor numbers, but they are not dismal.  However, please note that this president, for unique reasons, has a base of support that will always be with him.  This could be for ethnic or ideological reasons.  So that base will not vary as much as other voter groups, even Democratic groups, might.

Even with Rick Perry running, we still get signs of rumbling in Republican circles that the GOP field doesn't contain an obvious candidate capable of defeating Obama, who is a superb campaigner.  We can say, as we look to the end of the August doldrums, that the entire political picture is very unsettled, and subject to surprises and jolts.

August 20, 2011     Permalink