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AUGUST 16,  2011

SHORT TAKES ON THE DRIFTING WRECKAGE – AT 11:52 P.M. ET:

REALITY STRIKES HOME – There was much hubbub recently about a poll showing Obama' ratings in very blue New York falling like a rock.  A new poll out today confirms the other one.  Uh, unfortunately there's a little asterisk.  The poll also shows Obama beating all Republican comers.  This is an old story – polls that show states suddenly shifting, only to return to form by election day.  It happens every cycle.  In 2008 there were all kinds of stories saying that New Jersey could fall into the GOP column.  Never happened.  I'm concerned about Republican overconfidence.  New York is a good lesson. 

A PERRY MOMENT – We've been somewhat critical of Rick Perry's mouth here.  Even Perry boosters are cautioning him to be more careful about his comments, lest the MSM nail him as a political extremist to the right of Hitler.  Now Perry has something new hanging over him.  He has to decide, as governor of Texas, whether the state will issue license plates commemorating its Confederate heritage.  The decision gives Perry the chance to rise above localism and show he can represent the entire nation.  He should decide against the plates.  I happen to like the South.  One of my daughters is a Virginian.  A very large percentage of Urgent Agenda readers are in the South.  But there are dignified ways of recalling the sacrifice of Southern soldiers without license plates sporting a symbol of secession.  Indeed, the Texas heritage is actually mixed.  Some Texans fought for the South, many others resisted the Confederacy.  Perry must now become "President Perry."

WONDERFUL DORIS – Those of you of a certain age recall Doris Day, one of the truly great (and enduring) stars of American movie and music history.  She's 87 now, and it is announced that she's releasing a new album.  Actually, the songs were recorded some time ago under the supervision of her son, Terry Melcher, who died in 2004.  The album is a tribute to his memory.  Doris Day achieved musical stardom with "Sentimental Journey," a major hit of 1945, some 66 years ago.  She is one of the biggest-selling recording artists in history.  Between 1948 and 1964 her movies, including Alfred Hitchcock's "The Man Who Knew Too Much," were in the top ten every year.  When I worked on the Tonight Show, Doris Day was one of the stars we could never get.  She is incredibly independent, even turning down a Kennedy Center honor because she doesn't like to fly.  Welcome back, Doris.  We'll have a crush on you all over.

August 16, 2011     Permalink

POLL EARTHQUAKE – AT 8:16 P.M. ET:  A new Rasmussen poll, just out, shows the impact Rick Perry has already had on the GOP race. 

Texas Governor Rick Perry, the new face in the race for the 2012 Republican presidential nomination, has jumped to a double-digit lead over Mitt Romney and Michele Bachmann with the other announced candidates trailing even further behind.

The latest Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey of Likely Republican Primary voters, taken Monday night, finds Perry with 29% support. Romney, the former Massachusetts governor who ran unsuccessfully for the GOP presidential nomination in 2008, earns 18% of the vote, while Bachmann, the Minnesota congresswoman who won the high-profile Ames Straw Poll in Iowa on Saturday, picks up 13%.

Texas Congressman Ron Paul, who was a close second to Bachmann on Saturday, has the support of nine percent (9%) of Likely Primary Voters, followed by Georgia businessman Herman Cain at six percent (6%) and former House Speaker Newt Gingrich with five percent (5%). Rick Santorum, former U.S. senator from Pennsylvania, and ex-Utah Governor Jon Huntsman each get one percent (1%) support, while Michigan Congressman Thaddeus McCotter comes in statistically at zero. 

Scott Rasmussen comments: 

“Governor Perry is enjoying a bounce from entering the race at precisely the right time”, said Scott Rasmussen. “Now the difficult part begins for the new frontrunner. It’s much easier winning support when people are hoping you will get in the race, than retaining support when you are the frontrunner.”

COMMENT:  Very impressive for Perry.  But what really stuns me is the fading back of Mitt Romney, who, just days ago, was the supposed frontrunner.  I think it indicates how little enthusiasm there is for Romney, at least right now.

Perry still has a tough job ahead, even within the Republican Party.  His 29% is far from a majority, and there are plenty of doubters.  He must run a presidential campaign, which would be the best strategy to push the doubters out of his path.  Sometimes the best way to run for the nomination is to act as if you already have it, and run against the guy in the White House.  The doubters argue that Perry is strictly regional, not presidential.  Show us, Governor Perry.

As for Michele Bachmann, I'm sure she'll remain a force.  But today she came out with another of the gaffes that have plagued her, asking a crowd in South Carolina to join her in wishing "happy birthday" to Elvis Presley.  Trouble is, it isn't Presley's birthday.  It's the anniversary of his death.  The media picked it up.

This is getting very exciting.

August 16, 2011      Permalink

THE TERROR THREAT – AT 10:50 A.M. ET:  The terror threat, especially from home-grown terrorists, is still very much with us, as two stories indicate.  From The Hill:

Sen. Charles Schumer (D-N.Y.) is floating legislation that would mandate FBI background checks for employees at power plants, water treatment plants and other critical infrastructure.

Schumer cited a Department of Homeland Security (DHS) report last month that warned that extremists could seek to launch physical and cyber attacks from the inside.

The upcoming legislation, Schumer’s office said, would expand FBI testing that’s currently applied only to nuclear power plants.

The plan would “close this major security loophole that would make it mandatory for all major utilities and critical infrastructure plants to run FBI background checks on employees with access to the most sensitive areas of utilities,” according to a summary.

“Power plants and utilities present a tempting and potentially catastrophic target to extremists who are bent on wreaking havoc on the United States, which is why thorough background checks on all workers with access to the most sensitive areas of these operations are a must,” Schumer said in a statement.

Schumer is correct.  This should have been done a long time ago. 

And then there's this, from Fox:

The House Homeland Security Committee “has initiated an investigation” into the radical Muslim cleric Anwar al-Awlaki and whether he was an overlooked key player in the terrorist attacks of Sept. 11, 2001, a letter from the committee chairman to Attorney General Eric Holder says.

The three-page letter, obtained exclusively by Fox News, makes the case that a decade after the worst terrorist attack on U.S. soil, the full story of 9/11 has not been told.

“This congressional investigation will seek to determine:

"1. To what extent Anwar al-Awlaki wittingly or unwittingly facilitated the plot of the 9/11 hijackers; and

"2. to what extent al-Awlaki was an al Qaeda operative, offering support to acts of terrorism prior to 9/11.”

The letter to Holder, sent by Republican Rep. Peter King of New York on May 26, confirms that investigators believe the American cleric's contacts with three of the five hijackers on Flight 77, which slammed into the Pentagon, were more than a series of coincidences, but rather evidence of a purposeful relationship.

COMMENT:  We need confirmed facts here, but, if the suspicions bear out, then 9-11 was partially facilitated by an American-born terrorist.  Anwar al-Awlaki is now in Yemen, and is considered one of the most dangerous Al Qaeda operatives active in plots against the United States.

August 16, 2011       Permalink

SNIPPET OF THE DAY – AT 10:26 A.M. ET: 

From Reuters:   Fitch Ratings said on Tuesday it affirmed the United States' top-notch credit rating at AAA, giving the world's largest economy a reprieve after it was downgraded by Standard & Poor's little more than a week ago.  Fitch said the outlook for the rating was stable.

The has-been "filmmaker" Michael Moore suggested that President Obama have Standard & Poor's executives arrested after they downgraded the U.S.  Maybe the boys at Fitch got the message.

OH DEAR, OH DEAR – AT 9:23 A.M. ET:  In the last few days President Obama has compared himself to Martin Luther King Jr. and Abraham Lincoln.   In a way, it's a step down from the days when his delirious groupies were comparing him to the deity, but King and Lincoln will do.  Apparently, though, Obama believes that three's the charm, as he contemplartes adding another name to the list.  From the Daily Caller:

President Barack Obama is eyeing a 2012 campaign modeled on President Harry Truman’s 1948 successful re-election campaign against Congress. First, however, the White House will send to Capitol Hill an assortment of ‘economy-boosting’ legislation in a package that may include a major overhaul of the tax code.

“I’ll be putting forward, when they come back in September, a very specific plan to boost the economy, to create jobs, and to control our deficit,” Obama told a friendly audience at a Decorah, Minnesota campaign-event on Monday.

“My attitude is, get it done … [but] if they don’t get it done, then we’ll be running against a Congress that’s not doing anything for the American people, and the choice will be very stark and will be very clear.”

COMMENT:  Harry Truman did indeed run against the "do-nothing" Republican Congress.  The charge was false, as Congress had passed a remarkable package of bills, including the legislation that shaped our defense establishment in the Cold War.  But we were in a recession, so the charge resonated.

A new Gallup Poll puts Congress's approval rating at a mere 13%, so Obama's strategy may make sense.  However, there's a difference between Truman and Obama, and that's exactly Obama's problem – that difference.  He ain't Harry.  Truman wasn't particularly liked, but he was a fighter, and Americans admired that.   By contrast, Truman's opponent in 1948 was Governor Thomas E. Dewey of New York, who'd also been the Republican candidate in 1944 in a losing campaign against FDR.   In 1948, Dewey kind of sat around waiting to be crowned king, as almost every pundit predicted he would be.  Because of his pencil mustache, some came to describe him as "the man on the wedding cake."

The king never got to give his speech.  Feisty Harry won after a stunning whistlestop campaign through America.  The pundits punted, and Tom Dewey faded into history. 

Obama, like Truman, isn't particularly popular, but I doubt if he has Truman's fight in him.  He has more of Dewey's imperiousness.  But it will all depend on the Republican candidate.

August 16, 2011       Permalink 

A PERRY GAFFE? – AT 8:49 A.M. ET:  One of the things that worries conservatives about Rick Perry is his tendency to shoot off his mouth and say things that will come back to haunt him.  Example, musing out loud about Texas seceding from the Union.  Didn't we have a dustup about stuff like that circa 1861-65?

Now Perry has made a statement that is flashing around the internet, and even Republicans are asking whether he's gone too far.  In discussing the monetary policies of Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke, Perry said:

"If this guy prints more money between now and the election, I don’t know what y’all would do to him in Iowa, but we -- we would treat him pretty ugly down in Texas. Printing more money to play politics at this particular time in American history is almost treacherous -- or treasonous in my opinion."

Ugh!!

That is way over the top, and thoroughly un-presidential.  You don't talk about treating a public official "pretty ugly down in Texas."  And you certainly don't go near the word "treason."

Liberals are already having a field day with this, suggesting that Bernanke's life may now be in danger.  Indeed, if Obama wanted to, he could order the Secret Service to protect Bernanke, saying something like, "In light of Governor Perry's violent remarks, I am ordering federal protection for the chairman of the Federal Reserve." 

Can you just see the mainstream media go wild?  Can you imagine?

What should Perry do?  He should immediately call Bernanke and apologize, and then apologize for his statement, saying he was just speaking informally and not seriously. 

A few more like this, and Perry will be marginalized very quickly, and bring a good part of the GOP down with him.

We want to see good things from Governor Perry, and we think he has it in him to rise above his current status as a regional politician.  But he might recall the World War II admonition, "Loose lips sink ships."  They also sink presidential campaigns.

August 16, 2011       Permalink

I REALLY LIKE THIS STORY – AT 8:28 A.M. ET:  As the U.S. wallows, directionless, led by a president who rejects American exceptionalism and apologizes for this country during his overseas travels, other Western leaders are finally reasserting their national traditions and legacies, saying, in effect, "Be proud of your country." 

Two of those leaders are David Cameron in Britain and Steve Harper in Canada.  Now Canada takes another step in reasserting its history, and I think it's great.  From London's Telegraph:

Canada's Conservative government, stressing traditional ties to the Queen and the monarchy, is reinstating the names Royal Canadian Air Force and Royal Canadian Navy after a gap of 43 years.

The Liberals removed the "royal" designation in 1968 when they amalgamated the branches of service and called the military the Canadian Forces.

General Walter Natynczyk, chief of the defence staff, announced the decision to bring back the word "royal" for the official names of the two branches of the military in a memo posted on Monday on the military discussion site Milnet.ca.

The initiative to restore the names of Canada's former services "is aimed at restoring an important and recognisable part of Canada's military heritage," Gen Natynczyk said.

"These were the services that fought and emerged victorious from the Second World War and Korea and contributed to the defence of Europe and North America from the early days of the Cold War. These were also the services that paved the way in terms of international peacekeeping missions."

Peter MacKay, the defence minister, and other Conservative members of Parliament have scheduled what they describe as "significant" announcements on Canada's military history on Tuesday.

COMMENT:  Wonderful, wonderful.  Welcome back RCAF and RCN.  It's nice to have you back where you belong.   Maybe now Canadian kids will learn how much their country contributed to victory in World War II.  At the end of the war Canada had one of the largest navies in the world, despite a small population.  Today it is a shadow of its former self, starved by decades of "liberal" governments, led by the likes of leftist Pierre Trudeau and his party-loving wife, Margaret.  The libs also made Canada, during the Vietnam War, a haven for American draft dodgers.

Steve Harper's government is intensely pro-American, although not necessarily pro-Obama, is stalwart against the jihadist threat, and is restoring Canada to its rightful place.  Sadly, there are still plenty of liberal welfare staters and anti-Americans in Canada, and they are resisting Harper's policies.  It remains to be seen how much he can accomplish in his years in office, but we wish him the best.

August 16, 2011     Permalink

AUGUST 15,  2011

SHORT TAKES ON THE DRIFTING WRECKAGE – AT 10:33 P.M. ET:

TAKES ONE TO KNOW ONE – We now have the first fully professional assessment of Rick Perry by a highly skilled professional Democrat.  Bill Clinton describes Perry as a "good-looking rascal."  Bill has apparently been looking in the mirror.   He then went on to describe Perry's ideas as "crazy."  That, of course, is standard liberal fare.  Opponents are either stupid or nuts.  Such labels allow the speaker to avoid adult discussions of the issues.

NEW NAME ON THE LIST – Governor Bob McDonnell of Virginia is now replacing Rick Perry as chair of the Republican Governors Association.  And it didn't take long for buzz to start surrounding McDonnell, who did nothing to stop it.  Indeed, McDonnell says outright that he'd be interested in being the Republican vice presidential nominee next year, pointing to the fact that he's governor of a critical swing state.  Frankly, I couldn't see a Perry/McDonnell ticket because that would do nothing to expand the appeal.  I could see Perry/Rubio.  I could, though, see a Romney/McDonnell ticket, balancing Romney's presumed "moderate conservative" persona with McDonnell's "certified conservative" image.

FASCINATING HISTORY – London's Telegraph reports that British spies during World War II plotted to inject estrogen into Adolf Hitler's food to make him more feminine and less aggressive.  Apparently, the Brits thought they could get access to Hitler's food supply.  That leads me to question whether there is a matching substance that would make someone more masculine and decisive.   I wonder how hard it would be to get access to the White House kitchen. 

IT'S THE FOREIGNERS WITH THE FUNNY NAMES – President Obama has now come up with a new explanation for the economy.  Apparently, the tactic of blaming George Bush is wearing a little thin after two and a half years in office.  Obama now says it's them foreigners.  "Lately, it's high gas prices, the earthquake in Japan, and unease about the European fiscal situation. That will happen from time to time. There will be bumps on the road to recovery."  Yeah, it's those earthquakes.  It's well known in Democratic circles that there were no earthquakes when Ronald Reagan was president.

August 15, 2011     Permalink 

BARONE WARNS THE GOP – AT 10:06 A.M. ET:  As readers of this site know, we think Michael Barone is one of the most astute students of American politics writing today.  He also tilts right.  So when he issues a caution to the Republican Party, it should be taken seriously.   He has done that, echoing a theme we have discussed here as well:

The president's policies are in shambles. Things are not working out the way he and his advisers expected. His journalist cheering section has been voicing doubts and dismay.

But it's not entirely clear where Republicans want to go either, or whether they have candidates with the potential to take them there.

Yes, they have some quick answers. Repeal Obamacare? By all means. Approve a tax increase in return for genuine large spending cuts? All eight candidates at the Washington Examiner-Fox News debate Friday night dutifully raised their hands to say no.

Beyond that, not so much clear direction.

Barone is correct.  The Republican Party remains unpopular, as poll after poll shows.  But its presidential candidates have failed to put forward a vision of America and the policies that will accomplish that vision.

...it's possible that the Republican nominee, if he or she avoids stumbles and conditions remain as they are, can win just by running against the failed policies of the Obama Democrats. But that's not necessarily enough to successfully govern.

Republicans can successfully argue that Democratic promises of absolute security cannot be kept. Federal entitlements are, to paraphrase Margaret Thatcher, running out of other people's money.

The problem for Republicans is that it's impossible to foresee exactly how free market policies will improve people's lives. Back when Ronald Reagan was running during a similar Democratic breakdown in 1980, no one foresaw the wonders of the Internet...

...Republicans are winning the argument over the Obama policies. But they aren't yet making the strongest case for their own.

COMMENT:  I hope Barone is taken seriously on this.  "No new taxes" is a slogan, not an economic program.  "Jobs" is a word, not a proposal.  I could not honestly say, from the Republican debates so far, exactly where the GOP would lead this country. 

While the mainstream media will go easy on Obama, it will hammer the Republicans with demands for details.  The GOP must at least have the basics of a program in place, one incorporated into the Republican platform next year. 

One of the great things about Reagan is that he told us what he was going to do, and then, once elected, he did it.  Even those who disagreed with him admired the fact that he stood for a program, and enacted it.  Right now the Republican presidential candidates have a kind of hollowness about them.  Too many soundbites chasing too few ideas.  Work needs to be done.

August 15, 2011        Permalink

CAMERON LEADS AGAIN – AT 8:54 A.M. ET:  British Prime Minister David Cameron is emerging as perhaps the most forceful leader in the West.  He (and Angela Merkel of Germany) spoke out forcefully against the failures of multiculturalism despite attacks by the trendies, who thought that any questioning of the sacred concept was almost criminal.  Now Cameron, in the face of the British riots, is leading once more, pushing aside the idols of the failed British welfare state.  From The Telegraph:

David Cameron is to promise to confront the “moral collapse” in British society that led to last week’s riots and try to assert his authority over police chiefs who have publicly attacked him.

The Prime Minister, facing unprecedented criticism from the police, will say he has the strength to “take on and defeat” social problems caused by a weak and “demoralised” state.

Mr Cameron will use a speech in his Oxfordshire constituency to underline his personal leadership in dealing with the root causes of last week’s violence.

Both police and politicians faced criticism for the slow initial response to the riots, but Mr Cameron will declare: “I will not be found wanting.”

The aftermath of the disturbances has seen relations between the Government and the police sink to a new low. Four police chiefs yesterday made public attacks on Mr Cameron’s law-and-order agenda.

One chief constable told The Daily Telegraph that the Prime Minister had been “disrespectful” and risks losing the support of the police.

Gee, I thought the police worked for the elected officials, and not the other way around.  Police in Britain aren't like police in the U.S.  Law enforcement in Britain is riddled with political correctness and a reluctance to use force, even when it is clearly necessary.  Some British police officials have expressed their shock that Cameron has taken on legendary U.S. police chief Bill Bratton (Boston, New York, Los Angeles) as an adviser.  Bratton actually believes that criminals deserve to be punished. 

Senior Conservatives hit back by accusing the police of being “out of touch”.

Mr Cameron will attempt to rise above the row, offering a damning analysis of Britain’s moral decline and promising a raft of reforms in response.

Ministers began to set out some of those changes yesterday, signalling moves to end legal anonymity for under-18s accused of rioting. Tougher enforcement would “make life hell” for gang leaders, the Government promised.

COMMENT:  Cameron is somewhat hobbled by the fact that he heads a coalition government, made up of Tories and Liberal Democrats.  The liberals are not necessarily on board with the law-and-order emphasis, but they're lying low.  Given the recent week of rioting, I'm not sure sociological theories will prove too popular with a traumatized public.

Cameron has the potential to be another Maggie Thatcher.  He outclasses Obama by miles.

August 15, 2011       Permalink

AND THEN THERE'S THE OTHER GUY – AT 8:18 A.M. ET:  All the political attention has been focused on the Republican race, and we tend to forget that the GOP presidential candidate will have an opponent, and his name is Obama.  Since running for office is the thing that Obama does best, we might look at how his campaign is shaping up.

First, despite entreaties from this website, apparently not read in the White House, it does not appear that Mr. Obama will pull a Lyndon Johnson and drop out of the race, thus looking like a patriot and saving himself from the humiliation of an electoral defeat or a depressing second term.  Obama's ego has always outstripped his ability, and he pusheth on.  This week he starts a bus tour that will take him to the Midwest. 

The Obamans are already going negative, rushing out attack lines on the GOP field, including Rick Perry.  Other than that, and praying for a better economy, the Dem strategy doesn't appear to contain many surprises...yet.

Obama has the power of incumbency.  It is not to be trifled with.  Presidents with low approval ratings have gone on to win second terms simply by mobilizing their office.  Recall Harry Truman's spectacular 1948 campaign, in the face of nearly unanimous "expert" opinion that he had no chance of winning.  Recall Bill Clinton's victory over Bob Dole in 1996, despite a rocky first term and his party's loss of Congress.

And recall how the giant, Ronald Reagan, faltered badly at the start of his 1984 campaign for reelection, doing so badly in his first debate against former Vice President Walter Mondale that he became, for a time, a laughingstock.  He went on to win a landslide victory.

One element in the power of incumbency is the fact that the public already knows the president.  For those who like him, there is a forgiveness factor.  They are willing to forgive any manner of blunders and gaffes.  The public liked Reagan.  Many Americans loved him.  So they overlooked that first debate performance and gave him the benefit of the doubt.

It is said that most Americans like Mr. Obama personally, even if they disapprove of him politically.  Being liked ain't a bad way to start a campaign.

And the president has the power of surprise.   Will Obama pull a Roosevelt, 1944, and dump his vice president, as FDR dumped Henry Wallace?  The White House insists it will never happen, but "never" has no meaning in politics.  There is a great deal of buzz in Democratic circles that the country would have been better off with Hillary Clinton (who seems rather silent these days.)  What if polling shows Obama winning with Clinton and losing with Biden?  One can only imagine the phone call the next day.

I can't believe that Hillary has given up her presidential ambitions.  In 2016 she'll be in her late sixties, not old by today's standards.  However, she would have to ask this question:  Would I be better off as Obama's vice-presidential candidate, or would I stand a greater chance becoming, say, a college president and returning in 2016 as an elder stateswoman?

Who knows?  But be on the lookout for some internal White House poll, leaked to the public, showing Hillary as a substantial asset to Obama in the 2012 campaign.  And Joe Biden, after all, could probably be persuaded to become secretary of state, since he fancies himself an expert on foreign policy. 

We don't make predictions here, but this could be very intriguing.

August 15, 2011       Permalink 

THE BEAUTY OF FRIENDSHIP – AT 8:07 A.M. ET:  Our wonderful Pakistani friends for whom we all have, I'm sure, such great respect, are at it again.  From Fox:

The Pakistani government allowed Chinese military engineers to photograph and take samples from the downed top-secret helicopter U.S. Navy SEALs left behind after they successfully killed Usama bin Laden, the Financial Times reported Sunday.

The report comes after months of speculation and rumors that Pakistan gave the Chinese access to the super-stealth chopper.

"The U.S. now has information that Pakistan, particularly the ISI, gave access to the Chinese military to the downed helicopter in Abbottabad," the paper quoted one person in intelligence circles as saying, referring to the Pakistani spy agency.

The Financial Times reported that President Obama's national security team has been discussing the incident and quoted one official as saying the situation "doesn't make us happy."

"We had explicitly asked the Pakistanis in the immediate aftermath of the raid not to let anyone have access to the damaged remains of the helicopter," said the source, described as someone close to the CIA.

COMMENT:  When the Soviet Union came out with its first intercontinental bomber in the years after World War II, it looked strikingly like our B-29, and for good reason.  A B-29 had made an emergency landing in the USSR during the war and the Soviets simply engaged in what is called "reverse engineering."  They built their own bomber by simply duplicating ours. 

I'm not an engineer and we don't know how much detail the Chinese got from their inspection of the copter.  They apparently don't have any actual parts in their possession.  But they learned something about some very advanced technology, and that ain't good.

Thanks, Pakistan.  You're real pals.

August 15, 2011     Permalink