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AT THE LATEST ANGEL'S CORNER – READERS WRITE ABOUT SOUTHERN HISTORY, OBAMA'S CREDIBILITY IN THE WORLD, A THEORETICAL CHANGE IN FEDERAL RULES, THE STATE OF FOREIGN MILITARIES, THE DANGER OF USING PRECEDENT TO FORM THE POLICIES OF THE FUTURE.

AUGUST 6,  2011

SHORT TAKES ON THE DRIFTING WRECKAGE - AT 11:54 P.M. ET:

HORROR STORY – There have, in the last two days, been two separate flash mob attacks, one in Milwaukee and one in Pittsburgh.  Flash mobs are groups of "youths" who form and suddenly attack bystanders or rob stores, or both.  The participants in the recent spate of attacks around the United States, including several in the president's home city of Chicago, are usually African-American.   Newspapers, often reluctant to mention race, are now doing so more and more, which is correct.  We know, of course, that only a small number of black kids are involved, but they are dangerous and frightening, and something must be done, including faster police response and greater police patrols.  Ultimately, this is a cultural problem within a community.  The White House has chosen not to acknowledge the development.  We wish the president would speak out.

ITALY ON THE BRINK – Italy, a country for which I have unabashed affection, is in serious economic trouble.  As the world's eighth largest economy, trouble in Italy can spread beyond its borders.  A series of measures will be introduced into Italy's parliament soon that looks remarkably like measures recommended by conservatives in the United States.  They include a balanced budget amendment, and cuts in the cost of government, which in Italy also means subsidies to political parties.  It looks like Italy is in the right track.  It has, under most of its post-war governments, been a good ally to the United States and a base for American forces.

EXPLOITATION – As expected – we did a post on this hours ago – today's anniversary of the atomic bombing of Hiroshima is being used in Japan in campaigns against nuclear power for the future.  It's sad to see that.  There is no question that the recent release of radiation from an earthquake-damaged plant in Japan is a matter of the deepest concern, and there is no question that human negligence contributed to the tragedy.  But to try to bar all nuclear power seems to me no answer at all.  It's like trying to ban cars because of accidents.  The idea is to find ways to have nuclear power that is safe, and resistant even to natural catastrophes.  We didn't give up on ocean liners after the Titanic went down, and far more people died in that tragedy than in Japan's nuclear accident. 

August 6, 2011       Permalink 

LECTURE FROM CHINA – AT 11:47 A.M. ET:  For years many have warned that China holds too much of our debt, and could start demanding things of us in a financial crisis.  Well, the financial crisis is here, and China is demanding things. 

NEW YORK/SHANGHAI (Reuters) - China bluntly criticized the United States on Saturday one day after the superpower's credit rating was downgraded, saying the "good old days" of borrowing were over.

Standard & Poor's cut the U.S. long-term credit rating from top-tier AAA by a notch to AA-plus on Friday over concerns about the nation's budget deficits and climbing debt burden.

China -- the United States' biggest creditor -- said Washington only had itself to blame for its plight and called for a new stable global reserve currency.

"The U.S. government has to come to terms with the painful fact that the good old days when it could just borrow its way out of messes of its own making are finally gone," China's official Xinhua news agency said in a commentary...

...In the Xinhua commentary, China scorned the United States for its "debt addiction" and "short sighted" political wrangling.

"China, the largest creditor of the world's sole superpower, has every right now to demand the United States address its structural debt problems and ensure the safety of China's dollar assets," it said.

It urged the United States to cut military and social welfare expenditure. Further credit downgrades would very likely undermine the world economic recovery and trigger new rounds of financial turmoil, it said.

COMMENT:  Welcome to the new world.   China, not exactly a friend of the United States, now demands that we reduce our defense budget.  Gee, I wonder why.  Next it may well demand that we remove military assets from Asia.  And believe me, many Americans would be willing to go along, and not all of them will be liberals.

It is absolutely true that we got ourselves into this.  Both parties are to blame.  Now we have to get out of it, and it will be painful.  If we don't get out of it, there is risk of a further downgrade to the level of financially troubled nations like Spain. 

Financial observers differe as to whether the downgrade will have an immediate effect (Monday) on the stock market.  Some argue that the market had already taken into consideration the probability of a downgrade.  Others suggest that the stock market doesn't seem to have any connection with reality anyway.

August 6, 2011       Permalink

A DATE TO REMEMBER – AT 10:49 A.M. ET:  This is one of the most famous dates in American history.  It was on this date in 1945 that the United States dropped the atomic bomb on Hiroshima, Japan, in an attempt to bring World War II to a quick close.  Three days later we dropped a second bomb on Nagasaki.  The Pacific war that began with the Japanese invasion of Manchuria in 1931, and which escalated dramatically with the Japanese attack on Pearl Harbor in 1941, ended within a week.

There will be the usual hand-wringing today.  Of course, no moral person rejoiced in the terrible casualties suffered by the Japanese at Hiroshima and Nagasaki.  But the bombings, by bringing the war to a quick close, undoubtedly saved the lives of far more human beings than were taken.   Had the bombs not been used, the United States would have invaded Japan within months.  One can only contemplate the human carnage.

Since 1945 some on the political left have used the nuclear attacks to condemn America.  The Soviet Union was our ally in World War II, however, and such condemnations were not heard when the bombs were dropped.

Today we contemplate the possibility that nuclear weapons might fall into the hands of, or be developed by, terrorist groups and rogue states like Iran.  It is a horrible prospect because two nuclear devices set off in American cities would produce more casualties than have been suffered in all of America's wars combined.  And yet, as Iran moves forward with its nuclear program, our reaction is ineffective sanctions, and little more.

August 6, 2011      Permalink

TRAGEDY IN AFGHANISTAN – AT 10:29 A.M. ET:  The United States has suffered its single greatest loss in the history of the Afghan war:

KABUL, Afghanistan (AP) -- A military helicopter crashed in eastern Afghanistan, killing 31 U.S. special operation troops and seven Afghan commandos, the country's president said Saturday. An American official said it was apparently shot down, in the deadliest single incident for American forces in the decade-long war.

The Taliban claimed they downed the helicopter with rocket fire while it was taking part in a raid on a house where insurgents were gathered in the province of Wardak late Friday.

Americans have forgotten about Afghanistan.  This will remind them that Americans are still dying there, and it brings home once again the impact of the war on military families.  America is not at war.  The military is at war, and most Americans have no contact with the military. 

Cynics and propagandists will use this loss to advance their political platform on Afghanistan.  They always do.  We should do what is strategically wise.

Let us also remember that casualties in Iraq are increasing, just as we are pulling out.  The two are probably related, with attempts by Iran-backed insurgents to make life as miserable for our troops as possible, while destabilizing the country once we leave.

Once again, foreign policy goes to the front page, having been relegated to the sports section as we face our financial crisis.

August 6, 2011     Permalink

AUGUST 5,  2011

SHORT TAKES ON THE DRIFTING WRECKAGE – AT 11:05 P.M. ET:

DOWNGRADE – By now you probably know that Standard & Poor's has downgraded the credit rating of the U.S. Government, the first time that's ever been done.  Two other credit bureaus, however, have not done the same.  The Standard & Poor's action is clearly a rebuke to the United States, and neither party can take any comfort in it.  Economic analysts say that the actual effect of the downgrade is unclear at this time.  We might get some early indication when Asia markets open again on Sunday night.

WHO WOULD NOTICE? – The US Postal Service said on Friday night that it may have to default on payments it owes the United States Government.  Actually, I understand that the Postal Service said this by letter several weeks ago, but the letter got lost in the mail.  (No, no, no.)   The service warned a while back that there may be drastic cuts in mail service in the years ahead, to stem the losses that are incurred chronically.  An end to Saturday deliveries is in sight.  Many post offices will have to be closed, and even some weekday deliveries will be cut back.  There are millions of Americans who don't have computers, or access to e-mail, and this could be a real hardship.

ONE HAS NEEDS, DEARIES – The New York Times reports that seriously priced luxury goods are selling like the proverbial hotcakes, including $750 women's shoes, and Mercedes Benzes.  There is a sneering quality to the article, and I object!  It seems to me that you want to look your best when going to the unemployment office.  Look like a winner who likes to work!  Pull up in that Mercdes, driven by a chauffeur.  (You can get a friend.)  They'll know you're going to look for a new job vigorously, just to support that lifestyle.  Oh, and that $9,000 coat from Neiman Marcus is a steal.

RUBIO PACS FOR ACTION – Republican Senator Marco Rubio has established a Political Action Committee, calling it Reclaim America Pac.  Rubio, who just became a senator this year, has rejected all suggestions that he run for president next year.  But he is being widely mentioned as a candidate for vice president, a steppingtone to the presidency whether his ticket wins or loses.  The PAC, like chicken soup, can't hurt.  Rubio is probably the best speaker in the Republican Party right now.

August 5, 2011    Permalink 

FINALLY, SOME GOOD NEWS – AT 9:09 A.M. ET:  The U.S. economy added 117,000 jobs in July, which, while not spectacular, wasn't bad at all.  From WaPo:

WASHINGTON — Hiring picked up slightly in July and the unemployment rate dipped to 9.1 percent, an optimistic sign after the worst day on Wall Street in nearly three years.

Employers added 117,000 jobs last month, the Labor Department said Friday. That’s better than the past two months, which were also revised higher.

The mild improvement may ease investors’ concerns after the Dow Jones industrial average plummeted more than 500 points over concerns that the U.S. may be entering another recession.

Still, the economy needs twice as many net jobs per month to rapidly reduce unemployment. The rate has topped 9 percent in every month except two since the recession officially ended in June 2009.

And...

The unemployment rate fell partly because some unemployed workers stopped looking for work. That means they are no longer counted as unemployed.

COMMENT:  At least there are a few smiles here.  This rate of growth in employment does not, as the story points out, solve our problems, but it gives a bit of a boost.  We'll just have to see whether it can be sustained, and, more important, built upon, in the coming months.

We await the opening of American markets to see what impact the jobs report will have.

August 5, 2011       Permalink

NO OTHER WAY – AT 7:54 A.M. ET:   When he ran in 2008, President Obama's campaign was overflowing with hope, optimism, inspiration, spirituality, and all that good stuff.  Why, The One was coming, and we could already feel ourselves cleansed.

Not so in 2012.  If Obama ran on his record, his campaign would last 30 minutes.  Instead, it appears that, like any failed president, this one will divert attention from himself, portraying his opponent as the Devil, and scaring the daylights out of the voters.  From The Los Angeles Times:

Reporting from Washington— The stock market plunge highlights a challenge President Obama faces in his quest for a second term: With a recovery that is anemic at best, he probably will be forced to run on something other than his economic record.

Already, the outlines of a hard-nosed reelection campaign are emerging. Using surrogates to distance the president from the effort, his team is pushing back hard against criticism of his handling of the economy. At the same time, aides are developing lines of attack against potential GOP opponents.

"It's not going to be 2008 'Yes, we can' anymore. I think it's going to be slash-and-burn," said Democratic pollster Paul Maslin. "We have an embattled incumbent who doesn't have much hope of improving his standing except by point of comparison with his Republican opponent. It's going to be a very different kind of election that's going to be brutal, to be honest."...

...Obama's political advisors reject the suggestion that the president will run a scorched-earth campaign. Instead, one of those advisors said, they will present a "very aggressive contrast" with the GOP nominee.

Ben LaBolt, an Obama campaign spokesman, put the contrast the campaign hopes to portray this way: "A president that prevented another depression, stood up to special interests to pass Wall Street reform, and is fighting to create the jobs of the future," versus a Republican nominee who supports policies that "would eliminate hundreds of thousands of jobs and erode critical programs like Social Security."

COMMENT:  The problem for us is that these tactics often work.  Scare the voters into voting for the Devil they know.  People in America are frightened about their future, and, frankly, the Republican Party doesn't often come across as inventive or welcoming.

The tactics can fail if the Republicans come up with a candidate who 1) fights back; 2) has impressive experience; and 3) is an optimist with a warmth that shines through.  Of course, those were the characteristics of Ronald Reagan, who ran a vigorous campaign in 1980, who'd been a two-term governor of California, and who always told the American people that it's morning in America, no matter how dark the night.

The classic definition of a star in Hollywood is someone who has that indefinable something extra.  In politics, it's someone who wins the trust and hearts of the people in ways we don't always completely understand.  It's a human connection, as there was with FDR and Reagan, and, yes, to his 2008 supporters, with Obama.

Is there such a GOP candidate?  I don't know.  People mention Rick Perry, but he hasn't been tested beyond Texas.  Will he explode and expand?  Or will he be strictly local?  We're going to find out. 

Al Smith, the great governor of New York who, in 1928, became the first Catholic to be nominated by a major party for president, was called "the happy warrior."  That's a fine definition of what's needed.  Now show us the person.  No pessimists need apply.

August 5, 2011       Permalink

BLOODY SYRIA – AT 7:42 A.M. ET:  Syria is becoming an obscenity.  Secretary Clinton said yesterday that the Assad regime has killed more than 2,000 of its own citizens in recent months.  And yet the world reacts with only minor suggestions of upset.

Compare please to the international uproar that greeted a scandal in an American prison in Iraq during the Iraq War.  No one was killed.  No one was even seriously injured.  Some prisoners were humiliated and ill-treated, and the problem was exposed by our own Army and corrected.  Yet the world reaction suggested that mass genocide was taking place.  It is the double standard of the international left, as exemplified by "human rights" groups which, like the old red front groups, use grand words and market in hypocrisy.

Questions are being raised about America's own response to the Syrian massacres, given the speed with which we sent Hosni Mubarak to the showers.  From ABC News: 

The Obama administration has been reluctant to call on Syrian President Bashar al-Assad to step down despite the regime’s increasingly bloody crackdown on protestors seeking his ouster.

U.S. officials tell ABC News that there was a debate between the White House and the State Department this week over whether to take that step. The White House wanted President Obama go beyond his May 19 statement that Assad must reform or get out of the way, while the State Department cautioned that it was worth saving that arrow in the quiver.

Pressed repeatedly this afternoon by reporters asking why the U.S. has yet to call on President Assad to step down, Secretary of State Hillary Clinton eventually said “I come from the school that actions speak louder than words.”

And we've gotten neither.

To that end she said the U.S. is trying to develop international consensus for a global response to the violence in Syria.

“We are working around the clock to try to gather up as much international support for strong actions against the Syrian regime as possible,” Clinton said.

This crisis has gone on for months.  Must be a slow clock. 

The fact is that this administration's reputation for weakness, anticipated cuts in our defense, and a generally ambivalent attitude toward foreign policy, are combining to make us the pitiful helpless giant that we used to fear we'd become decades ago. 

There's an old saying in diplomacy:  "If you say you're going to take Vienna, take Vienna."  If we claim to be interested in advancing human rights in the Mideast, it's time to combine with other nations and insist that Assad leave power, while at the same time finishing the job against Gadaffi in Libya. 

We are losing influence.  We feel it around us.  The price will be paid.

August 5, 2011       Permalink

THE WORLD WAITS – AT 7:31 A.M. ET:  The heavy dip in stock prices yesterday was worldwide, fueled in part by America's economic problems, but also by Europe's financial crisis.  While Greece has been temporarily bailed out, Spain and Italy are on the brink.

Italy is the world's eighth largest economy, and not easily bailoutable.  For decades the West Europeans have been living on a credit card, maintaining vast welfare states, made possible in part because the United States was defending them.  Now a number of European states are running out of money, and Uncle Sam cannot help.   But don't despair.  The Europeans will still proclaim their superiority over us, no matter what kind of financial suicide they commit.  They will proclaim said superiority while secretly watching American sitcoms.

Stocks in Asia have already tumbled for an eighth straight day, and Europe is also down.  We await the result in the United States, whose performance will have a psychological impact on the rest of the world when the demolition derby begins again on Monday.

BRUSSELS (AP) -- Stocks around the world tumbled Friday ahead of crucial U.S. jobs figures, continuing a losing streak reminiscent of the aftermath of the collapse of U.S. investment bank Lehman Brothers in 2008.

Growing panic about the debts of big eurozone countries like Italy and Spain, paired with fears the U.S. may be heading back into recession. Jobs figures later could well go a long way to determining whether the U.S. economy is indeed on the point of shrinking again.

The biggest one-day points decline on Wall Street since the 2008 financial crisis Thursday carried into Asian and European markets Friday, taking down oil prices as well, as investors were preparing for a slowdown in demand.

Have a nice weekend.

August 5, 2011     Permalink