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I appeared on Silvio Canto Jr.'s Dallas talk show yesterday.  It's here.

APRIL 5,  2011

THE PLANNING, THE STRATEGY, MAYBE THE MOVIE – AT 9:57 P.M. ET:  Libya isn't going well.  The rebels are stalemated, and maybe that isn't such a bad thing, since we don't know exactly who the rebels are.  Now we learn that mighty NATO, absent the United States, isn't a paper tiger.  It's a paper mouse:

Nato is running short of attack aircraft for its bombing campaign against Muammar Gaddafi only days after taking command of the Libyan mission from a coalition led by the US, France and Britain.

David Cameron has pledged four more British Tornado jets on top of eight already being used for the air strikes. But pressure is growing for other European countries, especially France, to offer more after the Americans withdrew their attack aircraft from the campaign on Monday.

"We will need more strike capability," a Nato official said.

Since the French launched the first raids on Libya 16 days ago, the coalition and Nato have destroyed around 30% of Gaddafi's military capacity, Lieutenant General Charles Bouchard, the Canadian officer leading the air campaign, told Nato ambassadors.

But attempts to "degrade" the Libyan leader's firepower further were being complicated by a shift in tactics by Gaddafi, said Brigadier General Marc van Uhm, a senior Nato military planner.

"They are using light vehicles and trucks to transport," while hiding tanks and heavy weapons, he said.

COMMENT:  There certainly doesn't seem to be much enthusiasm on the part of NATO, absent vigorous American leadership.  And there doesn't seem to be any vigorous strategy.  I think there has been a greater sense of hesitation after press reports noted that the rebels aren't exactly Explorer Scouts, and that key members of the rebel leadership have dark pasts.  Reports out of Egypt that the "democratic" revolution may not be very democratic may also be leading to a pulling back, at least emotionally. 

I also get the sense that Americans are losing interest in the Libya story.  Without a clear distinction of good guys and bad guys, it's hard to charge into the lines.

April 5, 2011       Permalink 

SNIPPET OF THE DAY – AT 9:32 P.M. ET: 

From AOL:  Police in Charlotte, N.C., say they arrested a home invasion suspect who accidentally left a T-shirt featuring his own face -- in the form of a mug shot -- at the scene of the crime.  Following his release from a North Carolina prison after serving seven years for armed robbery and breaking and entering, Jonathan Huntley, 25, acquired a T-shirt printed with his own mug shot and the words "Making Money Is My Thang," The Smoking Gun reports.

A man who messes up this badly should immediately be put in charge of our Mideast policy.  It would be a step up.

April 5, 2011      Permalink

THE BIG BUCKS ARE FLYING – AT 10:15 A.M. ET:   Republicans have unveiled their budget proposals.  They are dramatic, and they will be controversial.  From Bloomberg:

U.S. House Republicans today unveiled a plan to overhaul the federal budget and slash the deficit in coming years by about three-quarters, with a $6- trillion cut in spending and 25 percent cap on tax rates.

The proposal, the Republicans’ first comprehensive budget plan since the November elections, would cut the deficit next year to $995 billion from $1.4 trillion now. It would continue to narrow the shortfall to as little as $379 billion in 2018, though it wouldn’t balance the government’s books until 2040.

House Budget Committee Chairman Paul Ryan’s plan relies on spending cuts to reduce the red ink, slicing more than $6 trillion over the next decade out of Medicare, Medicaid, food stamps and scores of other programs. At the same time, his proposal calls for cutting taxes, with the top corporate and individual tax rates set at 25 percent.

“We believe that we have the moral responsibility to step in and provide the leadership that the president has not been providing,” Ryan told reporters today in Washington. “He punted on debt reduction. We’re not going to do that.”

The plan marks a major escalation in Washington’s budget wars where lawmakers have been debating for months funding levels for the remainder of the government’s current fiscal year. Ryan’s proposal presents substantial political risk for Republicans because Democrats are sure to pounce on proposed cuts to popular government programs before next year’s presidential and congressional elections.

COMMENT:  At least the Republican proposals are serious and far-reaching.  Paul Ryan, whose career may either be enhanced or fatally damaged by the sheer scope of these proposals, deserves enormous credit for shaping the GOP plan.  He is a public servant in every sense.

The demagogues will now pounce.  My fear is that they will be successful, for they will have the media fronting for them.

As we said here yesterday, the way the GOP presents and explains this plan will be just as important as the plan itself.  Republicans should learn from the way Democrats botched the introduction of Obamacare.

April 5, 2011       Permalink

PETRAEUS ON THE MOVE? – AT 9:16 A.M. ET:  There's great buzz on the internet this morning about the future of General David Petraeus, the best-known American military officer of this generation.  Toby Harnden of Britain's Telegraph, has the best coverage:

This summer it will be musical chairs among President Barack Obama’s national security team. Leon Panetta, the CIA Director, is widely tipped to take over from Bob Gates as Pentagon chief. General David Petraeus, who is said to be exhausted and eager to leave Afghanistan, is being tipped by NPR as a serious contender for Panetta’s job.

We note that NPR is National Public Radio, not always known for its precision.  The story about Petraeus has not been confirmed.

It wouldn’t be unusual for a military officer to take over at Langley but Petraeus – known to some as King David – has no specialist intelligence background, though he’s certainly spent plenty of time as an intelligence consumer.

The possible move shows that the Obama administration is having a hard time finding a slot for the general, once considered a potential 2012 nominee for Republicans.

And...

One big thing the CIA job would do is give Petraeus an entry point into the civilian politics of Washington. Certainly, Petraeus is extremely well connected in DC for a military man but there’s no doubt that a stint at CIA would be a broadening experience for him.

Which means, of course, he would be an even more attractive presidential candidate in due course.
Petraeus in 2016 anyone?

COMMENT:  Well, I don't know.  We haven't had a general in the White House since Eisenhower, and he wore five stars and had far greater stature than Petraeus. 

I'm fascinated by this report, though, because it does make sense.  Panetta would probably be a solid choice, at least in Obama's mind, for SecDef because he's loyal to Obama and is well regarded as an administrator.  He's unlikely to develop a Hillary-like following.

Petraeus at CIA might bring to mind the awful CIA reign of Vice Admiral William Raborn, the father of the Polaris missile program, who was made CIA director and almost turned the agency into a sinking ship.  But Petraeus would bring to the CIA an understanding of unconventional warfare that could improve the agency's product. 

I'm not sure Obama would want to enhance the general's political credentials because he's widely believed to be a Republican.

The real change will come at the State Department.  When Hillary leaves at the end of Obama's turn, and if Obama is reelected, who will fill Clinton's shoes?  Some of the candidates talked about – John Kerry and Samantha Power – are beyond depressing and would send us rushing for sedatives.  We might also buy land in Australia. 

We hope, of course, that Obama will be sent by the voters back to the South Side of Chicago, and will not have the chance to make all these juicy appointments.  He could work for Mayor Rahm Emanuel.

April 5, 2011     Permalink 

OH DEAR, CAN ALL THIS BE TRUE? – AT 8:58 A.M. ET:  As readers know, we've been asking the fundamental questions about the "democracy" rebellions in the Mideast:  Who are the rebels?  What do they stand for?  The answers, day by day, are getting very depressing.  This, from Toronto's Globe & Mail: 

Who are these Libyan rebels whom the Western powers, including Canada, are helping with their air raids?

The little we know is anything but reassuring. And it makes one wonder why Western leaders were foolish enough to provide major support to a group that might prove to be even more dangerous than Moammar Gadhafi’s regime. Colonel Gadhafi is a cruel despot, to be sure, but at least he stopped sponsoring international terrorism; he’s now al-Qaeda’s nemesis and a violent foe of radical Islamists.

Yeah.  Absolutely evil, but maybe the lesser of two evils.  In the Mideast, a human-rights sewer, that may even count for something. 

In late 2009, a Canadian intelligence report called the anti-Gadhafi stronghold of eastern Libya an “epicentre of Islamist extremism,” pointing out that “extremist cells” operated in the region, including in some of Benghazi’s mosques.

Happy days are here again.

Last month, the Transitional National Council, the group formed by the anti-Gadhafi rebels during the uprising of 2011, was endorsed by Abu Yahya, a Libyan-born al-Qaeda official (and alleged member of the Libyan Islamic Fighting Group), who broadcast a video message urging the Benghazi rebels to continue the fight for the establishment of an Islamic regime.

And...

The council’s chairman is Mustafa Abdul Jalil, a former justice minister in Col. Gadhafi’s government. The appellate court of which he had been president twice confirmed the death penalty for five Bulgarian nurses who had been arrested in 1999 on the ludicrous charge of contaminating Libyan children with the AIDS virus.

And...

Abdul Fatah Younis, a senior military commander of the insurgency, is a former interior and public security minister. As such, he was responsible for the system of torture set up by the Gadhafi regime.

And...

Idris Laga, the council’s “military co-ordinator,” was head of the Association of Relatives of Children Infected with AIDS, an organization set up by the regime to raise the price exacted for the Bulgarian nurses held hostage. Vladimir Chukov, a Bulgarian expert on the Arab world, says Mr. Laga “harbours a deep hatred for the West.”

COMMENT:  Have a nice day.  Remember that Hitler was democratically elected.

April 5, 2011      Permalink

MICHELE? – AT 8:27 A.M. ET:  No, I don't mean the one in the White House.  I'm referring to Michele Bachmann (one "l"), Republican congresswoman from Minnesota, who seems increasingly serious about running for president in 2012.  And she's being taken increasingly seriously, at least in the conservative base of the Republican Party.  Can she be a factor – nominee, kingmaker, troublemaker?  The Hill has a well-reported story:

The vacuum created by former Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin’s (R) absence from the 2012 campaign trail presents a major opportunity for the woman she once hinted might share a presidential ticket with her: Rep. Michele Bachmann (R-Minn.).

With strategists and conservative activists increasingly convinced that Palin won’t make a run for the White House next year, she is losing some clout among her contingent of grassroots devotees who are eager to hit the 2012 campaign trail and rally behind an alternative to President Obama.

Bachmann, who is mulling a 2012 run, is the most obvious choice to supplant Palin in next year’s presidential contest. The Minnesota Republican is positioning herself to take up the anti-establishment mantle that vaulted Palin to Tea Party stardom.

And polls reflect Bachmann’s growing cachet. The three-term lawmaker came in second in last week’s Gallup poll that measured GOP voters’ level of intensity about the 2012 hopefuls. Palin was sixth. The poll also found that Palin had a higher unfavorable rating, 8 percent, than Bachmann, who had a 4 percent disapproval rate.

COMMENT:  I have mixed feelings about this.  Bachmann is a crowd rouser, like Palin, and does her homework on the issues.  She's a lawyer who did post-graduate academic work in law.  However, she's very junior, and tends to be gaffe-prone.  Now, Obama is gaffe-prone as well, but, in the gaffe department, only Republicans get nailed by the media.  Dems get a pass. 

Bachmann will certainly draw a great deal of attention if she runs.  But, at this stage in her career, she's widely viewed as a lightweight, and someone who would have trouble bringing in the independents who are critical to a GOP victory in 2012.  She'd make the race more interesting.  She'd also draw attention away from those more likely to succeed at getting the nomination.  This is a potential candidacy that clearly cuts both ways.

Read the story.  Interesting stuff.  The 2012 election is right around the corner.

April 5, 2011     Permalink

APRIL 4,  2011

PALACE INTRIGUE, FROM THE GUY WHO USED TO LIVE IN ONE – AT 11:40 P.M. ET: 

WASHINGTON (AP) — Former President Bill Clinton says the Obama administration should consider arming rebels fighting to oust Moammar Gadhafi in Libya. Clinton tells ABC News in an interview that he "sure wouldn't shut the door" to assistance for the rebels, reflecting a position that some in Congress have urged President Barack Obama to pursue.

COMMENT:  What is intriguing is not the nature of the advice, but the fact that Bill Clinton is giving it.  By tradition, a former president doesn't give unsolicited public advice to an incumbent, unless the former president is Jimmy Carter, who'll give unsolicited advice to anyone, including the kid running the lemonade stand.

Now, we all know that Bill Clinton is married to Obama's secretary of state.  It is inconceivable that he'd be giving advice publicly without Hillary's approval.  He's had enough trouble at home.  But why would she approve?  Ah, that is the question.  Hillary has a large network of talkers in Washington who leak things to the press.  It's widely reported, via this network, that Hillary is frustrated with Obama's indecision and lack of leadership.  At the same time, she's announced she's stepping down from her post at the end of the president's first term.

Is Hillary Clinton planning anything?  Is she making her first move in distancing herself from this administration's failing foreign policy?  I have no idea, but I don't believe her when she says she has no interest in any further government work.  Watch her closely.  And watch her chief spokesman, Bill.

April 4, 2011      Permalink

MORE WORRY FROM EGYPT – AT 10:24 P.M. ET:  We reported this morning that radical Muslim elements in Egypt, taking advantage of the revolution, are asking that "modesty police" be established, just as in Saudi Arabia.  That would be the end of any serious concept of freedom.

Day by day, the Egyptian revolution is being compromised by Islamists, who are well organized in the country.  Now there's this, which is specifically worrisome for the United States:

CAIRO - Cairo is ready to re-establish diplomatic ties with Tehran after a break of more than 30 years, Egypt's foreign minister said on Monday, signaling a shift in Iran policy since the fall of President Hosni Mubarak.

"The Egyptian and Iranian people deserve to have mutual relations reflecting their history and civilization," said Foreign Minister Nabil Elaraby after meeting Iranian official Mugtabi Amani.

Pure garbage.  Egypt has, up to now, been stalwart in opposing the venomous Iranian influence in the Mideast.  Their civilizations actually clash on many levels.  This is not good.

Egypt is open to all countries and the aim is to achieve common interests," Elaraby said, adding that Cairo welcomed "opening a new page with Iran."

That's an aim that should make us very uneasy.  And...

Egypt and Iran have been at odds on a number of issues including the Middle East peace process and ties with Israel and the United States.

Maybe not anymore.

COMMENT:  We had such high hopes for Egypt, and the other countries where citizens are rising up against their governments, and we can still hope.  But the most important question for us has clearly become, "Who are the revolutionaries and what do they stand for?"  I'm afraid the answers are getting disappointing.  As we noted this morning, it's the Arab world.  Don't look for Tommy ("the declaration") Jefferson or Jimmy ("the Constitution") Madison. 

There's an old Chinese curse:  "May you live in interesting times."  The times are getting interesting indeed.

April 4, 2011      Permalink

A LIGHT UNTO THE NATIONS – AT 9:46 A.M. ET:  Americans are gradually learning that incandescent light bulbs will soon be illegal.  But not everyone is content to turn out the lights.  There is blowback:

State lawmakers are fed up with the federal government micromanaging their lives. The South Carolina Senate is scheduled to strike back Tuesday with a bill that asserts the 10th Amendment right of the state to tell Washington to take a hike when it comes to the sale of incandescent light bulbs manufactured within state borders.

Ever since then-President George W. Bush signed into law the Energy Independence and Security Act of 2007, the clock has been ticking on Thomas Edison’s venerable incandescent. Unless Congress acts before Jan. 1, 2012, federal bureaucrats will begin their campaign to foist the mostly Chinese-made, compact fluorescent bulbs on a public that has shown no interest in buying them on the free market.

Palmetto State lawmakers aren’t interested in waiting for the feds to see the light. The “South Carolina Incandescent Light Bulb Freedom Act” declares any fixture that bears the stamp “Made in South Carolina” is a product of intrastate commerce and thus “is not subject to federal law or federal regulation.”

COMMENT:  Good for South Carolina.  Look, we all want more efficient energy, and better bulbs are part of the solution.   I use small fluorescents myself and think they should get widespread use.  But my beliefs should not be imposed on others.  The answer to obsolete bulb technology is not more federal intervention, but entreprepreneurs who can, through the free market, convince Americans that their new technology is better and more economical. 

How many bureaucrats does it take to screw in those new light bulbs?  It shouldn't take any.  They shouldn't be doing it. 

April 4, 2011      Permalink

A DISTURBING REPORT – AT 9:07 A.M. ET:  Our porous southern border is one of the continuing scandals in the United States.  It's usually associated with illegal immigration, but counterintelligence people worry that terrorist groups can slip across that border as well.  The problem is magnified by disturbing stories of Al Qaeda operations in South America.  From Reuters:

BRASILIA (Reuters) - Al Qaeda operatives are in Brazil planning attacks, raising money and recruiting followers, a leading news magazine reported Saturday, renewing concerns about the nation serving as a hide-out for Islamic militants.

Veja magazine, in its online edition, reported that at least 20 people affiliated with al Qaeda as well as the Lebanese Shi'ite Muslim group Hezbollah, the Palestinian group Hamas and two other organizations have been hiding out in the South American country.

The magazine said these operatives have been raising money and working to incite attacks abroad. The magazine cited Brazilian police and U.S. government reports, but did not give details on specific targets or operations.

The United States has said Islamic militants have been operating in the border region between Brazil, Paraguay and Argentina. Brazil has denied this, while saying it is aware that some members of Brazil's Lebanese community legally transferred funds to the Middle East.

There has been a warming of relations between Brazil and the United States since President Dilma Rousseff took office in January. She has sought closer U.S. ties after her predecessor, Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva, angered the United States with attempts to mediate over Iran's nuclear program.

Veja reported that a Lebanese man named Khaled Hussein Ali, who has lived in Brazil since 1998, is an important member of al Qaeda's propaganda operation and has coordinated extremists in 17 countries.

COMMENT:  Our great nightmare is that a terror group will be able to smuggle a weapon of mass destruction into the United States, possibly broken down into parts.  We have known about Al Qaeda activity in South America for years, and there is a greater chance that this activity will grow with the number of leftist governments that have come into existence south of our border.  Hugo Chavez is not likely to be helpful in this regard.

We need a real, firm, and probably expensive border policy, for the lives of thousands of Americans may depend on it.

April 4, 2011      Permalink

AS THEY SAY, TIMING IS EVERYTHING – AT 8:36 A.M. ET:  It never ceases to amaze me how some "executives" manage to undermine support for the free-enterprise system.  It's as if they're closet Marxists trying to bring it down.

Now comes the latest episode featuring an exquisite mix of bad taste and bad timing.  This will be extraordinarily popular at a moment when ordinary people are being asked to sacrifice:

(CNN) -- Declaring 2010 "the best year in safety performance in our company's history," Transocean Ltd., owner of the Gulf of Mexico oil rig that exploded, killing 11 workers, has awarded its top executives hefty bonuses and raises, according to a recent filing with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.

That includes a $200,000 salary increase for Transocean president and chief executive officer Steven L. Newman, whose base salary will increase from $900,000 to $1.1 million, according to the SEC report.

Newman's bonus was $374,062, the report states.

Newman also has a $5.4 million long-term compensation package the company awarded him upon his appointment as CEO in March 2010, according to the SEC filing.

The latest cash awards are based in part on the company's "performance under safety," the Transocean filing states.

"Notwithstanding the tragic loss of life in the Gulf of Mexico, we achieved an exemplary statistical safety record as measured by our total recordable incident rate and total potential severity rate," the SEC statement reads. "As measured by these standards, we recorded the best year in safety performance in our Company's history."

Oh, guys, come on.  There's a time and place.  Maybe the statisticians say you did well, but when you've got the Gulf oil spill on your backs, and 11 dead workers of your own, you might want to lie low and shut up. 

Reminds me of the BP big shot who complained that the oil spill was interfering with his lifestyle. 

In the early fifties, Secretary of Defense-designate Charles E. Wilson, the head of GM, got into trouble for saying that "what's good for General Motors is good for the country."  It was only a partial quote that distorted what he meant, but the country was in an uproar and Wilson almost didn't get his Cabinet post. 

I don't think we have the same sensibility today.  I wish we did.  You may be sure that the people who gave us this enormous recession will go right back to their old practices unless they are publicly shamed and shunned.  They haven't been.  As a society, we should be discussing this.

April 4, 2011      Permalink

THE NEW EGYPT? – AT 8:22 A.M. ET:  We've been following this trend closely.  There was a great deal of rejoicing when Egyptian protesters forced out Hosni Mubarak, an American ally.  There would be a new Egypt, democratic and modern.

But we've seen disturbing trends in recent years that the new Egypt might be worse than the old one.  Fundamentalist groups, which are intensely hostile to the West, are making their move, and there's not much rejoicing:

Officials of the Muslim Brotherhood, Egypt's leading Islamic group, have called for the establishment of a Saudi-style modesty police to combat "immoral" behavior in public areas in what observers say in another sign of a growing Islamic self-confidence in the post-Mubarak era.

In the political sphere, the Brotherhood led a successful drive to get voters to approve a package of constitutional amendments. On the street level, at least 20 attacks were perpetrated against the tombs of Muslim mystics (suffis), who are the subject of popular veneration but disparaged by Islamic fundamentalists, or salafis. After some initial hesitation, Islamic leaders have publicly praised the revolution.

"This is incredibly worrying to many Egyptians," Maye Kassem, a political scientist at the American University in Cairo (AUC), told The Media Line. "The salafis were always undercover in Egypt and now they are emerging as a political force. They are getting too vocal."

Newly freed from the political strictures of the Mubarak era, Egypt has turned into a battleground between those who envision a liberal, secular state and those who advocate various shades if Islam. The conflict mirrors those taking place elsewhere in the region. In Bahrain, unrest has evolved into a conflict between Sunni- and Shiite Muslims and the US has pulled back from supporting Libyan rebels over concerns they are dominated by Islamists.

COMMENT:  It's the Arab world.  We are separated from it not only by ideology, but by centuries.  This is a once-great civilization that that started to fade long before the pilgrims decided to use their frequent-sailor miles on a trip to Massachusetts.

What is called "the Arab spring" can turn into a bitter winter if the nuts take over, and I'm afraid there's not much we can do about it.

April 4, 2011       Permalink

HE'S OFFICIALLY IN – AT 8:11 A.M. ET:  President Obama entered the 2012 race officially this morning with a web video.  Fox, the president's favorite network, not, reports:

In case there was any confusion, President Obama is officially running for re-election in 2012, his campaign announced Monday morning in a web video.

His campaign website, BarackObama.com, was updated with a "2012" logo and a video featuring grassroots activists.

The short message actually did not feature the president at all, trying to emphasize getting people involved on the ground.

The site also had this message, "This campaign is just kicking off. We're opening up offices, unpacking boxes, and starting a conversation with supporters like you to help shape our path to victory. 2012 begins now, and this is where you say you're in."

Obama is also expected to formally put in his paperwork with the Federal Election Commission (FEC) later Monday.

I feel so privileged just to be alive for this announcement, don't you?  When in your life have you been given such a thrill?  A rumor swept Washington that, as the announcement was made, a star appeared over the White House and three wise campaign contributors appeared in Buicks to pay homage.

In two years Obama has not established much of a record.  He got Obamacare through, but it remains unpopular with large numbers of Americans.  His foreign policy has yet to be determined.  I'd imagine his campaign will be largely negative, employing the usual scare tactics to panic voters into not voting Republican.  Obama cannot count on the level of enthusiasm from young voters that he had in 2008, but he can count on media that will, once again, fall in line.  Journalists hate to be proved wrong – and they rarely admit it anyway – and they have a major career investment in this president. 

Don't underestimate the Obama machine.  It is ruthless and cunning, one of the best we've ever seen in presidential politics.  With the help of the media, it put a minor Chicago politician in the White House.  It can keep him there unless our side puts up a spirited candidate willing to wage an all-out fight.  I'm not seeing that candidate yet.

April 4,  2011     Permalink