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Today marks the traditional start of the election campaign.  The midterms will be held on Tuesday, November 2nd.  In my view, they are the most critical midterms of our lifetime.  We have in Washington the most left-wing administration in American history.  We have in the White House a president who doesn't seem to like his job any more than he likes his country.  Americans have caught on, and have a chance to change our disastrous course.

Urgent Agenda will follow the campaigns intensively.  We'll give you updates on the important political news, sometimes more than once a day.  To make it easy for readers to spot the latest political bulletins, we'll set them off with a flag bar:

When you see those bars enclosing a post, you'll know that it signals election news.  Check back often.  And may the best and wisest candidates win.  Those are the ones we support.

TUESDAY, SEPTEMBER 7, 2010

UH, ON SECOND THOUGHT – AT 7:48 P.M. ET:  There is some thinking going on about global warming.  That's news.  The thinking doesn't match the prevailing party line.  That's real news.  The story:

PARIS (AFP) - – Estimates of the rate of ice loss from Greenland and West Antarctica, one of the most worrying questions in the global warming debate, should be halved, according to Dutch and US scientists.

In the last two years, several teams have estimated Greenland is shedding roughly 230 gigatonnes of ice, or 230 billion tonnes, per year and West Antarctica around 132 gigatonnes annually.

Together, that would account for more than half of the annual three-millimetre (0.2 inch) yearly rise in sea levels, a pace that compares dramatically with 1.8mm (0.07 inches) annually in the early 1960s.

But, according to the new study, published in the September issue of the journal Nature Geoscience, the ice estimates fail to correct for a phenomenon known as glacial isostatic adjustment.

This is the term for the rebounding of Earth's crust following the last Ice Age.

COMMENT:  Not to worry, environmental kamikazes.  Daddy Barack won't change his views anytime soon.  And you can still compare global-warming skeptics to Flat Earthers.  The press won't mind.

But recent surveys show that the American people are turning against the global-warming "consensus," and some of the dogmatic tactics used to advance it.  We need a lot more research, a a lot more honest research.  If Obama would lead on this, rather than follow, it might counter his image as weak, indecisive, and conformist.  But then, of course, he wouldn't be our Barack.

September 7, 2010      Permalink

ELECTION UPDATE – AT 7:24 P.M. ET:  This is bigger than the abdication of Eddie the 8th in 36.  Mayor Richard M. Daley of Chicago, son of the real Mayor Daley and one of the most powerful figures in American politics, has announced that he won't run for another term.  The political implications for Illinois, and even Washington job-seeking, are profound:

Mayor Richard M. Daley of Chicago said Tuesday that he would not run for re-election when his term expires next year, an announcement that could have implications from the Windy City to the White House.

“I’ve done my all. I’ve done my best,” Mr. Daley told reporters during a news conference at City Hall in Chicago. “Now, I’m ready with my family to begin the new phase of our lives.”

The news created an immediate stir inside the West Wing.

“No mayor in America has loved a city more or served a community with greater passion than Rich Daley,” President Obama said in a statement. “He helped build Chicago’s image as a world class city, and leaves a legacy of progress that will be appreciated for generations to come.”

He was also, in effect, Obama's "guiding force," a nice term for it, when Obama was an Illinois politician.

Rahm Emanuel, the chief of staff to President Obama, has talked openly about his desire to run for mayor of his hometown. He has said that he would only consider running if Mr. Daley decided to step aside.

This gives Obama a chance to replace the hard-edged Emanuel.  It also dramatically reduces Daley's influence in Illinois politics in the midst of a critical election campaign.  Obama's Senate seat is up for grabs.  If it's lost to the GOP, that would be a severe psychological blow to the president, and might make the difference in control of the U.S. Senate.

When I was a student at the University of Chicago many decades ago, the current mayor's father was mayor.  He was famous for running a tight, if ruthless ship, and for mangling the English language in ways that make George W. Bush sound like Winston Churchill.  The elder Daley would, for example, refer to O'Hare Airport as O'Hara Airport. 

He liked to call Chicago "the city that works."  That led some political wags to ask, "For whom?"  The Daleys have always run an efficient machine that paid great attention to citizens' basic needs, like traffic lights and street signs.  Education didn't quite make it up to that level of priority.

There is already a movement building among the Democratic left to deny Rahm Emanuel the mayoralty, and it may succeed.  He doesn't make friends easily, and he's white in a heavily minority city.

If Rahm leaves to try for the job, though, Obama could reach for the stars and appoint a highly popular national figure as chief of staff, even offering the job to a willing Republican, and doing so before the November election.  But Obama is Obama, and he will probably stick with a member of the Chicago crowd, like Valerie Jarrett.

A major political power is leaving the stage at a time when his party is in disarray.  The mayoralty election is in February of next year.  The next months in Chicago will be fascinating, with national implications.

September 7, 2010     Permalink

SNIPPET OF THE DAY – AT 4:37 P.M. ET: 

BULLETIN FROM THE BBC:  Climate change is not responsible for civil wars in Africa, a study suggests.  It challenges previous assumptions that environmental disasters, such as drought and prolonged heat waves, had played a part in triggering unrest.  Instead, it says, traditional factors - such as poverty and social tensions - were often the main factors behind the outbreak of conflicts.

Al Gore is reported in seclusion.

September 7, 2010      Permalink

THANKS A LOT, GUYS – AT 10:02 A.M. ET:  Well, it was a good thought, I guess.  So-called "peace talks" began last week between Israel and the Palestinian Authority.  Now the president of the PA has pretty much cancelled the whole affair in advance:

Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas rejected Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu's talk about an "historic compromise" and said there would be no compromises on core issues such as Jerusalem and borders.

Then what is the point of peace talks?  In the end, these talks always end with Arab rejectionism. 

Abbas also reiterated his rejection of Netanyahu's demand that the Palestinians recognize Israel as a Jewish state. "We're not talking about a Jewish state and we won't talk about one," Abbas said in an interview with the semi-official Al-Quds newspaper. "For us, there is the state of Israel and we won't recognize Israel as a Jewish state."

Gee, neat.  What if we refused to recognize Muslim states as Muslim?  Can you just see our embassies burning?

Obviously, statements like this will not advance peace.  Abbas makes them because he has Arab extremists and the Western left behind him.  He could talk genocide and the Western left would still applaud.

We wonder whether President Obama will get on the phone with Abbas today and read him the riot act.  Don't hold your breath.  Riot acts are only read to America's allies.  It takes backbone to read them to enemies.  Backbone hasn't shown up on any of the president's recent X-rays or MRI's.  Specialists are upset.

So, right from the start, these talks are on life support.  Hillary Clinton will go to the Mideast later this month to preside over the second round of talks.  Given Abbas's stand, there isn't much to talk about....unless Hillary will take a big political risk and start knocking Palestinian heads.  She's experienced at knocking the Israeli heads. 

September 7, 2010     Permalink

TODAY CHICAGO, TOMORROW THE WORLD – AT 9:08 A.M. ET:  Having worked in Chicago politics some decades ago, I recall the whole catalogue of jokes about the dearly departed voting in every election.  True then, true now.  And what's being done about that, and other voter fraud scandals around the country?  An editorial from The Washington Times reports on some stunning news from our Department of Occasional Justice:

The dead voters may be forced back into their graves. The biggest scandal emerging from the infamous New Black Panther voter- intimidation case didn't even involve the Black Panthers. Instead, it came when whistleblowing attorney J. Christian Adams told the U.S. Commission on Civil Rights that top Justice Department official Julie Fernandes had openly refused to enforce laws that require states to remove ineligible names - dead people, felons, people who have moved - from voter rolls.

"We have no interest in enforcing this provision of the law," Ms. Fernandes reportedly told a roomful of employees of the department's Voting Section in November. "It has nothing to do with increasing turnout, and we are just not going to do it."

Now comes Mr. Adams to show this wasn't idle talk. As early as today, 16 states will start receiving official "notice letters" from him warning of coming private-action lawsuits to compel them to enforce these particular provisions of the law. This appears to mean that the Justice Department is refusing to make states comply with federal voter-verification laws - which is why the task will fall to Mr. Adams, helping represent private citizens whose legal votes otherwise would be diluted in value by fraudulent votes.

COMMENT:  Incredible.  When Gerald Ford became president, succeeding the disgraced Richard Nixon, one of the most important things he did was to choose an impeccable attorney general, Edward Levi of the University of Chicago.  Ford needed to assure the American people that the Justice Department was actually devoted to justice.

Now, under Eric Holder and his hard-left appointees, we have a department that is highly politicized and devoted only to select causes dear to its political base.  Its civil rights division has become a virtual invasion force mounted against the state of Arizona. 

You'd think President Obama would realize the danger, but, in truth, he's part of the danger.  We have a Justice Department, Chicago style.  We've reached the point where a former official, J. Christian Adams, must take action as a private citizen to assure enforcement of basic voting laws.

Republicans have pledged that, if they take control of either house of Congress, they will investigate the Justice Department's handling of the Black Panther case, which could easily lead to a probe of the entire department.  We need that probe, and we need it fast.

September 7, 2010      Permalink

POLARIZATION AT THE SUPREME COURT – AT 8:41 A.M. ET:  The New York Times does a piece of solid, original reporting, seeking to examine the ideological intensity of the Supreme Court by the clerks the justices hire:

WASHINGTON — Each year, 36 young lawyers obtain the most coveted credential in American law: a Supreme Court clerkship. Clerking for a justice is a glittering capstone on a résumé that almost always includes outstanding grades at a top law school, service on a law review and a prestigious clerkship with a federal appeals court judge...

...These days the more conservative justices are much more likely than were their predecessors to hire clerks who worked for judges appointed by Republicans. And the more liberal justices are more likely than in the past to hire from judges appointed by Democrats.

And...

The recent divide in the selection of clerks amplifies the ideological rifts on a polarized court, one political scientists say is the most conservative in recent memory. And it echoes as clerks go on to prominent careers in government, the legal academy and major law firms.

David J. Garrow, a University of Cambridge historian, said the court had in this way started to mimic the political branches of government.

“We are getting a composition of the clerk work force that is getting to be like the House of Representatives,” Professor Garrow said. “Each side is putting forward only ideological purists.”

COMMENT:  Whether we like this trend or not, it shows the importance of taking control of the Senate, which must confirm justices by a simple majority vote.  Given President Obama's appointment, thus far, of two very liberal justices, and the number of 5-4 decisions the Court is making,  it is critical that the Democrats not be permitted to continue their rubber-stamp confirmations.  If Republicans are in control, they can influence the appointment of justices by simply making it clear that they will not confirm another cookie-cutter liberal.

September 7, 2010       Permalink

ELECTION UPDATE – AT 8:08 A.M. ET:  A series of new polls, right at the informal start of the campaign, indicate the depths of the problems for Democrats.  We weep, we wail.  Not.  From WaPo:

For the first time in more than four years, Republicans run about evenly with Democrats on the basic question of which party they trust to handle the nation's biggest problems. Among registered voters, 40 percent say they have more confidence in Democrats and 38 percent say they have more trust in Republicans. Three months ago, Democrats had a 12-point advantage.

Actually, other polls show the GOP well ahead.  Why the discrepancy?  It's explained here:

Among all voters, 47 percent say they would back the Republican in their congressional district if the election were held now, while 45 percent would vote for the Democrat. Any GOP advantage on this question has been rare in past years - and among those most likely to vote this fall, the Republican advantage swells to 53 percent to the Democrats' 40 percent.

The key is "likely voters."  Republicans and their allies are more likely to vote, and voting, not pre-election polls, are the numbers that count.  And there is this feast as well:

Voters were also asked whether they think it is more important to have Democrats in charge of Congress to help support the president's policies or to have Republicans in control to serve as a check on Obama's agenda. Here, 55 percent say they prefer Republicans, while 39 percent choose Democrats. The GOP's 16-point edge is double what it was in July.

Also, take a look at this chart from RealClearPolitics, showing where the parties stand on the generic Congressional ballot.  Solidly Republican.  The RealClearPolitics average shows the GOP with an 8.1-point advantage.  It actually is higher, but a Newsweek outlier poll shows the parties even, bringing down the GOP number.

September 7, 2010     Permalink

MONDAY, SEPTEMBER 6, 2010

OH, THAT OLD PROBLEM AGAIN – AT 7:35 P.M. ET:  You mean, we still have to deal with Iran?  Yeah, that's what I mean.  It's remarkable, but Obama's magic wand didn't do the trick, as The New York Times points out:

WASHINGTON — Three months after the United Nations Security Council enacted its harshest sanctions yet against Iran, global nuclear inspectors reported Monday that the country has dug in its heels, refusing to provide inspectors with the information and access they need to determine whether the real purpose of Tehran’s program is to produce weapons.

What a shock.  What a surprise.

For several weeks the Obama administration has argued that the sanctions are beginning to bite, cutting off Iran’s access to foreign capital, halting investment in its energy sector and impeding its ability to send its ships in and out of some foreign ports.

While there are strong indications that Iran is beginning to feel pain — largely from additional sanctions imposed by the United States and European and Asian nations over the summer — the report on Monday from the International Atomic Energy Agency indicates that so far they have failed to force Iran to comply with longstanding requests.

Which is pretty much what most sane observers predicted.

The agency protested that Iran had barred two of its most experienced inspectors from the country. They were barred only days after the Security Council passed its latest sanctions, part of a longstanding pattern of reducing access in retaliation for United Nations action. Iran has, however, permitted some other inspectors to enter.

The report also reiterated that for two years, since August 2008, Iran has refused to answer questions “about the possible existence in Iran of past or current undisclosed nuclear-related activities involving military-related organizations, including activities related to the development of a nuclear payload for a missile.” The report said it was “essential that Iran engage with the agency on these issues” because evidence can degrade with “the passage of time.”

COMMENT:  Boy, those hard-hitting comments will really shake up the mullahs.  Their turbans may actually pop off.

Iran remains the greatest foreign-policy issue facing us.  Some have concluded that it's an exaggerated threat, but it isn't.  A nuclear-armed Iran could dominate the Middle East and west Asia, and nuclear weapons, being small, are easily transported and could be given to trusted allies and terror groups.  Not a small thing to worry about.

We have made no progress with Iran.  That truth has to be faced.

September 6, 2010       Permalink

SNIPPET OF THE DAY – AT 11:44 A.M. ET: 

From the Detroit News:  Add Jesse Jackson’s ride to prominent vehicles being stripped in Detroit.  Following the embarrassing news that Mayor Dave Bing’s GMC Yukon was hijacked by criminals this week, Detroit’s Channel 7 reports that the Reverend’s Caddy Escalade SUV was stolen and stripped of its wheels while he was in town last weekend with the UAW’s militant President Bob King leading the “Jobs, Justice, and Peace” march promoting government-funded green jobs.  Read that again: Jackson’s Caddy SUV was stripped while he was in town promoting green jobs.

Well, to be fair, the stripped version probably is a little greener.  Give the man credit.

September 6, 2010       Permalink

IN EDUCATION, NOTHING SUCCEEDS LIKE FAILURE – AT 11:13 A.M. ET:  Next time someone appears on television weepin' and wailin' over "underfunding" in American education, please remember this story, about Los Angeles, from The Wall Street Journal:

At $578 million—or about $140,000 per student—the 24-acre Robert F. Kennedy Community Schools complex in mid-Wilshire is the most expensive school ever constructed in U.S. history. To put the price in context, this city's Staples sports and entertainment center cost $375 million. To put it in a more important context, the school district is currently running a $640 million deficit and has had to lay off 3,000 teachers in the last two years. It also has one of the lowest graduation rates in the country and some of the worst test scores.

The K-12 complex isn't merely an overwrought paean to the nation's most celebrated liberal political family. It's a jarring reminder that money doesn't guarantee success—though it certainly beautifies failure.

And...

Set to open Sept. 13, the school boasts an auditorium whose starry ceiling and garish entrance are modeled after the old Cocoanut Grove nightclub and a library whose round, vaulted ceilings and cavernous center resemble the ballroom where Kennedy made his last speech. It also includes the original Cocoanut Grove canopy around which the rest of the school was built. "It wasn't cheap, but it was saved," says Thomas Rubin, a consultant for the district's bond oversight committee, which oversees the $20 billion of bonds that taxpayers approved for school construction in recent years.

Can't you see the positive effect of this on math scores?

Talking benches—$54,000—play a three-hour audio of the site's history. Murals and other public art cost $1.3 million. A minipark facing a bustling Wilshire Boulevard? $4.9 million.

The Kennedy complex is Exhibit A in the district's profligate 131-school building binge. Exhibit B is the district's Visual and Performing Arts High School, which was originally budgeted at $70 million but was later upgraded into a sci-fi architectural masterpiece that cost $232 million.

Even more striking is Exhibit C, the Edward Roybal Learning Center in the Westlake area, which was budgeted at $110 million until costs skyrocketed midway through construction when contractors discovered underground methane gas and a fault line. Eventual cost: $377 million.

Remember, it's for the children, it's for the children.  Don't ask any questions.

The Roybal center now ranks in the bottom third of schools with similar demographics on state tests...

Congratulations!  Hey, it's better than the bottom ten percent.

But even though many Roybal kids can't read or do math, at least they have a dance studio with cushioned maple floors and a kitchen with a restaurant-quality pizza oven.

For the kids, for the kids.

Expect more such over-the-top and inefficient building projects in the future. Los Angeles voters have approved over $20 billion of bonds since 1997 and state voters have chipped in another $4.4 billion of matching funds. Roughly a third of the cost of the Kennedy complex will be shouldered by state taxpayers.

COMMENT:  And that, of course, is the heart of the problem.  It's OPM – other people's money.  I guarantee you that if the families of the kids attending these schools had been given a three percent hike in taxes to pay for them, the pizza oven would have never been ordered.  Let 'em eat cake!

Education in America isn't underfunded.  It's overfunded.  And when is someone going to start questioning the vast cost of sending a kid to college?  Oh, but we must not ask.  It's for the...you know.

September 6, 2010      Permalink

GOP ROMPS IN GENERIC BALLOT – AT 10:57 A.M. ET:  Scott Rasmussen reports a spectacular showing for the Republican Party in the Congressional generic ballot:

A new Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey finds that 48% of Likely Voters would vote for their district's Republican congressional candidate, while 36% would opt for his or her Democratic opponent. The survey data was collected on the seven days ending Sunday, September 5, 2010.

This matches the largest advantage ever measured for the Republicans. Three weeks ago, the GOP also held a 12-point lead.

Still, while the margin has varied somewhat from week-to-week, Republicans have been consistently ahead in the Generic Ballot for over a year. During 2010, the GOP edge has never fallen below five points. When Barack Obama first took office as president of the United States, the Democrats enjoyed a seven-point lead on the Generic Ballot.

COMMENT:  Of course, the result comes from questions that usually begin, "If the election were held today..."  And, as some political wag once said, "If the election were held today, I'd be very surprised."

The key for the Republicans is to keep this lead through the real election on November 2nd.  There is some concern in GOP circles that the party may have peaked too soon.  However, experienced analysts point out that the summer before a midterm election is crucial, and that the party leading at the end of the summer normally wins on election day. 

September 6, 2010      Permalink

WELL, YAWN, MAYBE IT'S TIME TO DO SOMETHING – AT 10:32 A.M. ET:  The White House is rolling out some new economic proposals, having finally recognized that the old Democratic theme song, "Happy Days Are Here Again," isn't quite rising in the charts.  From WaPo:

Under mounting pressure to intensify his focus on the economy ahead of the midterm elections, President Obama will call for a $100 billion business tax credit this week, using a speech in Cleveland on Wednesday to launch what administration officials said was a new policy push.

The business proposal - what one aide called a key part of a limited economic package - would increase and permanently extend research and development tax credits for businesses, rewarding companies that develop new technologies domestically and preserve American jobs.

It would be paid for by closing other corporate tax loopholes, said the official, speaking on condition of anonymity because the policy has not yet been unveiled.

COMMENT:  I can't imagine this having much electoral effect, although a change of three points in many close races can make a difference. 

According to news reports, the Democrats are preparing to focus only on those races that they feel they have a good chance of winning, cutting loose, from financial and other support, marginal candidates.  It's a kind of political triage.  There is still a belief in Democratic circles, and we do not ridicule it, that the Dems can still hold onto the House, if only by a tiny number of seats.  If they do, of course, it would make Nancy's office plans so much simpler.  It's so hard to get a good moving company these days.  And as for helpful decorators, don't even bother asking. 

There should be other economic proposals later in the week.  Too little, much too late.  Voters want to see results, and even good proposals will take months to work their way through the economy.  The election will be held in only two months.

September 6, 2010     Permalink