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ELECTION - 9 days from today

SUNDAY, OCTOBER 24, 2010

BARACK, THEY'RE NOT LISTENING – AT 7:25 P.M. ET:  Rarely do political coalitions break up so quickly.   But the Obama coalition of 2008 seems to be fracturing, as the reality sinks in that Obama is, shall we say, inadequate:

On college campuses where Barack Obama made politics cool again, most students have moved on.

They’ve quit bugging their friends about change, they’re no longer trying to sign up new voters and the knock-on-door day trips now draw only the most hard-core.

One statistic from Rock the Vote, the most aggressive organization behind youthful political participation, illustrates the difference between now and 2008 — just 280,000 young voters signed up in its midterm elections voter drive, a fraction of the 2.5 million who eagerly put their name on voter forms two years ago.

The bottom line: From coast to coast, universities that brim with liberal ideas and idealistic students won’t be sending nearly as many voters to the polls on Nov. 2. And that’s bad news for Democrats.

COMMENT:  And neither African Americans nor Hispanics seem as enthusiastic about the Democratic Party this time 'round.  And the gender gap, vital to Dems, has narrowed.

This doesn't mean we'll have a rout on election night.  But it does mean we can, for the first major election in a long time, look forward to some fun.

October 24, 2010      Permalink

QUOTE OF THE DAY – AT 7:06 P.M. ET:  The Juan Williams/NPR scandal continues to boil, with no admission from NPR, of course, that it did anything wrong other than disrupt its fundraising week with the firing of Williams. 

Brit Hume, at Fox, hits on an issue that some have been reluctant to discuss:

Fox News commentator Brit Hume asserts that race played a role in National Public Radio's decision to fire Juan Williams last week after he made a comment on a Fox show about being concerned when he saw airline passengers in "Muslim garb."

"In the culture of NPR, appearing on Fox is a sin," Hume said on "Fox News Sunday," with regular panelist Williams sitting a few seats away. "And in the culture of NPR, for an African-American man like Juan, regardless of his personal stature, to be there and be kind of a Bill Cosby liberal, not a down-the-line liberal, is a sin as well. They’ve been gunning for him for years."

COMMENT:  So true, so true.  In the eyes of the left, and using the phrase that is so stinging to minorities, Juan Williams didn't know his place. 

NPR has had a bad week.  Good.  It's about time.  Its public "unmasking" (an old Marxist term, hah, hah) as a left-wing propaganda front has now taken place before an audience larger than it has ever gotten on its own.

Will it make a difference?

The building of truth occurs bit by bit.  The Chinese speak of "a thousand cuts."  This was a big cut this week.

October 24, 2010     Permalink

AND IN THE REAL WORLD – AT 9:28 A.M. ET:  Uh, this election is about something, and this is one of the things it's about.  We're not exactly in the money:

WASHINGTON (AP) -- Regulators on Friday shut down a total of seven banks in Florida, Georgia, Illinois, Kansas and Arizona, lifting to 139 the number of U.S. banks that have fallen this year as soured loans have mounted and the economy has sputtered.

The Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. took over the banks, the largest of which by far was Hillcrest Bank, based in Overland Park, Kan., with $1.6 billion in assets.

A newly chartered bank subsidiary of Boston-based NBH Holdings Corp. was set up to take over Hillcrest's assets and deposits. The new subsidiary is called Hillcrest Bank N.A.

The FDIC and Hillcrest Bank N.A. agreed to share losses on $1.1 billion of the failed bank's assets. Its failure is expected to cost the deposit insurance fund $329.7 million.

Also shuttered were First Bank of Jacksonville in Jacksonville, Fla., with $81 million in assets; Progress Bank of Florida, based in Tampa, with $110.7 million in assets; First National Bank of Barnesville in Barnesville, Ga., with $131.4 million in assets; Gordon Bank of Gordon, Ga., with $29.4 million in assets; First Suburban National Bank in Maywood, Ill., with $148.7 million in assets; and First Arizona Savings, based in Scottsdale, Ariz., with assets of $272.2 million.

Ameris Bank, based in Moultrie, Ga., agreed to assume the assets and deposits of First Bank of Jacksonville. Bay Cities Bank, based in Tampa, is buying the assets and deposits of Progress Bank.

COMMENT:  Welcome to the recovery.  I know that a good time is being had by all.

October 24, 2010      Permalink

ELECTION UPDATE – AT 8:52 A.M. ET:  Well, not much happens, even in an election year, between Saturday night and Sunday morning. 

In Ohio, GOP favorite John Kasich holds on to a narrow lead against incumbent Governor Ted Strickland, for the governor's chair.  Strickland is essentially running as a conservative, although a Democrat. 

A surprise Boston Globe poll puts Dem Governor Deval Patrick only four points ahead of challenger Tim Cahill.  And that's in one of the bluest states in the country.  Patrick is an incompetent governor, but too many in Massachusetts will automatically pull the Democratic lever.  Also, being an African-American, he will bring out the Boston vote.

Strange poll by the L.A. Times has Jerry Brown 13 points ahead of Meg Whitman for governor, and Barbara Boxer eight points ahead of Carly Fiorina for the Senate.  This poll is an outlier.  Others have both races much closer.

Latest Pennsylvania tracker shows Toomey up three over Sestak.

We have a bit more than a week to go.  House looks good, governorships look good, Senate looks shaky.  We await the possibility of some last-minute October surprise, probably sprung, not by the Democrats, but by their friends in the media.  The leak of thousands of war documents was clearly timed to influence our election, but I don't see it having much impact.  Watch for a last-minute hit against GOP candidates.

October 24, 2010       Permalink

WHY DOES HE HATE US? – AT 8:40 A.M. ET:  We used to ask, about other countries, why do they hate us?  Now we ask it about our own leaders.  Toby Harnden, one of the most astute British commentators on American politics, is appalled at President Obama and his opinion of his country, and charges that Obama can cause lasting damage:

This year, Democrats have embraced with gusto the notion that Republicans, and by extension anyone thinking of voting for them, are dimwits...

...In choosing California and Massachusetts, two of the most liberal states in the union, to demean ordinary Americans during election campaigns, Obama did not display a whole lot of his much-vaunted intelligence. But Obama's decision to plug Stewart's rally approvingly and appear on his show three days beforehand is even more foolish.

In the 1990s, Democrats managed to get away from their image as "eggheads" in the 1950s or "pointy-headed liberals" in the 1970s. Bill Clinton spoke like a Good Ol' Boy from the Deep South, ate junk food and enjoyed trashy women. He was clever, but he did not look down on people.

Obama, by contrast, has become a parody of the Ivy League liberal smugly content with his own intellectual superiority and pitying the poor idiots who disagree with him. It is an approach that shares much with the default anti-Americanism of British and European elites, who love to mock the United States as a country full of gun-toting, bible-clutching morons.

Obama would feel no pain if accused, to his face, of fomenting anti-Americanism.  He seems to have no problem with the phenomenon.

The problem for Obama and the Democrats is that belittling the Tea Party movement, which is taking hold of much of Middle America, merely fuels the popular sense that the party in power is out of touch. It also highlights the reluctance of Obama and the Democrats to discuss the Wall Street bail-out, economic stimulus and health care bills because they know they are not vote winners.

Joining the Europeans in mocking ordinary Americans for their supposed idiocy may play well at big-dollar fund-raisers. In adopting this as a political strategy, however, the Democrats could be the ones who end up looking stupid.

COMMENT:  They will look stupid, but they will never be called stupid by the media elites, who share their views and their shallowness.  How would you like the country run by Christiane Amanpour?

Obama has revealed his true self during this campaign, as compared to the fake image projected in 2008.  Most Americans don't like it.  But, even if that's true, the Republicans still must find a credible candidate to take him on, or we'll have four more years of Obama after 2012.

October 24, 2010     Permalink

SATURDAY, OCTOBER 23, 2010

ELECTION TIDBITS – AT 5:03 P.M. ET:  Some late polls give support to some trends we detected in the last few days:

In Pennsylvania, a new Morning Call poll has Toomey up three against Sestak for the U.S. Senate.  We had feared, early in the week, that Toomey's support was collapsing among independents, but things seem to have stabilized.  The lead is still within the margin of error, and too close for serenity, but we're hoping that GOP enthusiasm will stretch that number.

Reports from Illinois tell us that early voting has been disappointing for the Dems.  For the first time, according to one report, numbers from the Chicago suburbs have been greater than from the city itself.  And that includes the counting of Chicago voters who passed away years ago. 

A new Mason-Dixon poll in Illinois shows Republican Mark Kirk up two over his Dem opponent, whose name I cannot spell.  He's the guy who plays basketball with Obama, and this race is for Obama's old seat in the U.S. Senate.  Or maybe we should say "new" seat, since the chair didn't get much use when Obama was supposedly occupying it.

In California, obnoxious pseudo-Senator Barbara Boxer hangs on to a small lead, maybe two, three points, over Carly Fiorina, who has run a fine campaign.  This could be a heartbreaker if Carly falls a bit short.  Again, we're counting on GOP enthusiasm.  But California's public-employee unions, who can send literally hundreds of thousands to the polls, are going all out for the far-left Boxer.

Similarly, the old guard in California wants retread, third-owner used car Jerry Brown to be governor.  Sadly, Brown, who was governor in an earlier era, before most of us had computers, before e-mail, before the internet, has a comfortable lead over Meg Whitman and will probably win.  This is particularly sad because congressional redistricting in California will now, if Brown does win, be in Democratic hands.

October 23, 2010       Permalink

WHO'S DEMANDING WHAT? – AT 10:25 A.M. ET:  Have you noticed that the UN, wallowing in corruption and dishonesty, has become more aggressive since our citizen-of-the-world president took office?  Now these "international civil servants" reach the height of arrogance.  From London's Telegraph:

The United Nations has called for the US to investigate whether its officials knew about alleged torture and other ill-treatment of detainees held by Iraqi security forces.

Hey, guy, how about asking Iraq?

Manfred Nowak, the UN's special rapporteur on torture, told the BBC the US President Barack Obama had an "obligation" to carry out an independent and objective investigation.

I'm sure he'll be glad to.  But how about imposing some "obligations" on dictatorships.  Too much trouble? 

"There is an obligation to investigate whenever there are credible allegations torture has happened – and these allegations are more than credible – and then it is up to the courts," he said.

How does he know they're more than credible? 

"It is then up to the courts on the one hand to bring the perpetrators to justice and also on the other hand to provide the victims with adequate reparation for the harm they have suffered."

Again, how about sending the same letter to dictators.

It follows the release of almost 400,000 secret US military logs, by the Wikileaks website, which suggest US commanders ignored evidence of torture by the Iraqi authorities.

COMMENT:  That leak, big news today, is disgraceful.  And equally disgraceful is the fact that we let it happen, and have not prosecuted anyone.

Document dumps like this often produce a number of "secret" reports that really aren't secret, but are overclassified, a common practice in government.  We wonder how this UN's "special rapporteur on torture" can be so sure that the documents are accurate.  But when you have nothing much to do...

October 23, 2010       Permalink

BULLETIN – AT 10:03 A.M. ET:  For the first time, RealClearPolitics now rates the House of Representatives as safely in Republican hands come election day. 

It takes 218 votes to control the House.  RCP now projects the new House as 220 Republicans, 178 Democrats, with 37 toss ups.  Of course, this has to be ratified by actual votes on election day, we have a good feeling.  Advice to Nancy:  Pack, and take the old drapes.

By contrast, the Senate remains an uphill battle.  RCP still has the Senate with 44 Republicans, 48 Dems and 8 toss ups. Republicans would have to win 7 of the 8 toss ups to gain control, not very likely.

However, if the GOP had 48 or 49 seats, the party, with some moderate Dem help, could, in practical terms, control the chamber.

RCP projects 28 Republican governors, 15 Dems, and 7 toss ups.  The governorships are particularly important in the years immediately following the Census because state governments handle redistricting of congressional seats.  A few blocks here, a few blocks there, you can change history.

Not bad, so far.  But I want to send retirement congratulations to Barbara Boxer and Patty Murray.  Both senators are ahead in their states by the narrowest of margins.  Turnout is the key.

October 23, 2010       Permalink

WILLIAMS IRATE...AND SOARING – AT 9:30 A.M. ET:  The Juan Williams controversy continues to escalate, as the nation's most publicized incident of political correctness focuses attention on the dry rot of liberal hypocrisy.  Conservative lawmakers are lining up to introduce bills cutting off the funding for National Public Radio, long seen as a liberal bastion.

Problem is, NPR only gets about two percent of its budget from the government.  It's the individual stations that are heavily dependent on the government dole.  However, if donors start cutting off NPR, maybe they'll learn their lesson.  Although, frankly, George Soros will probably be right there with his checkbook. 

Fox News is, of course, delightfully driving the story.  Williams took over hosting The O'Reilly Factor last night and expressed his personal fury at being fired for expressing an honest opinion, then being told by the NPR top honcho that the issue was between him and his psychiatrist, a low personal insult.

The Washington Post reports that even NPR staffers are dismayed at what's happened:

NPR faced fierce public and political reaction - most of it strongly negative - in the wake of its firing of commentator Juan Williams for comments he made on a Fox News program earlier in the week.

Even NPR's own staff expressed exasperation at the decision during a meeting Friday with NPR's president, Vivian Schiller. Several of those who attended said Schiller told employees that she regretted how she handled the episode.

Ya think?

There is political correctness on the right as well, but I've found that PC on the left is vastly more intolerant and arrogant.  I think that's because conservatives generally feel a greater obligation to decent behavior and courtesy.

Let the story grow. 

October 23, 2010     Permalink