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ELECTION - 19 days from today

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THURSDAY, OCTOBER 14, 2010

SNIPPET OF THE DAY – AT 10:15 P.M. ET:

Embarrassed Chicago election officials Thursday announced they’d move to correct a misspelling of the Green Party candidate for governor’s name from “Rich Whitey to “Rich Whitney" on thousands of voting machines used in heavily African-American areas in Chicago.

The fix is expected to cost “tens of thousands of dollars," spokesman Jim Allen said.

I think they were really afraid that Rich Whitey would get elected. 

October 14, 2010       Permalink

IS THIS GREAT TIMING, OR WHAT? – AT 9:26 P.M. ET:  This isn't our typical item, but I just had to report it:

Now, you all know what the big news channel event was last week, right?  It was the premiere of the Spitzer-Parker talkfest on CNN.  They're promoting the thing all over the place.  CNN apparently sees it as its crown jewel.  They're got these ads running announcing Parker as a "fearless" journalist, something we hadn't noticed, and Eliot Spitzer as a kind of modern-day Winston Churchill, leaving out the little matter of his having to resign the governorship of New York, previously held by Franklin D. Roosevelt, because of some commercial transactions with self-employed women of athletic virtue. 

So I'm at my computer today and an e-mail arrives from the Writers Guild of America, of which I've been a member for some 41 years.  It's an invitation.  I'm invited to a showing of a new documentary - CLIENT 9: THE RISE AND FALL OF ELIOT SPITZER.

Are we talking great timing here?  CNN has done handstands to avoid mentioning Eliot's, uh, problem, and now this film will be out there.  Will CNN review it?  Will Kathleen Parker mention it?  If it wins an Oscar, will CNN blank out its name?

Will Eliot be forced to do a Checkers speech?

Stay tuned. 

October 14, 2010      Permalink

LARRY'S LIST – AT 8:23 P.M. ET:  Larry Sabato, of the University of Virginia, is one of the nation's leading election observers.  He's handicapped the Senate races, and is optimistic about GOP chances:

Concerning the Senate , the Democrats still appear to have a small edge to maintain narrow control—but Republicans have the opportunity to run the table, win a net +10 seats, and gain a one-seat majority. For now, we are raising (by one seat) the likely Republican Senate gain, from +7-8 to +8-9 . This was the level at which we had the GOP before its disaster in Delaware...

...However, Republicans have begun to do better in a couple of other states, and in this edition of the Crystal Ball, we are changing ratings in those two states: West Virginia and Wisconsin...

...West Virginia Senate goes from Lean D to Toss Up ...

...Wisconsin Senate goes from Toss Up to Leans R...

...Florida Senate from Leans R to Likely R...

...Missouri Senate from Leans R to Likely R...

...New Hampshire Senate from Leans R to Likely R...

...Pennsylvania Senate from Leans R to Likely R.

We noted before Labor Day that whenever the House has flipped parties since World War II, the Senate has changed party control in the same direction, even when election observers didn’t see it coming. If the Senate falls into the GOP column in 2010, it will do so right at the end of the campaign by a relative handful of votes in a couple of states. The closest contests are in Colorado, Illinois, Kentucky, Nevada, Washington, and West Virginia. To take control of the Senate, Republicans must win all of these seats, or pull off an unexpected upset in Connecticut or California.

COMMENT:  Sabato is a shade more optimistic about GOP chances in the Senate than are some other observers.  He now pegs the minimum GOP gain at eight seats, meaning the Republicans would wind up with 49 seats total.  As we've reported, RealClearPolitics pegs the probable GOP gain at five seats, with six toss ups.

The key to this election will be turnout.  No one doubts that Republicans, and critics of Obama, are energized far more than are the Dems.  But will the energy translate into votes on election day?  That may come down to items as basic as the weather in key areas. 

No guarantees.  Fight on.

October 14, 2010     Permalink

TOOMEY ROMPS IN PENNSYLVANIA – AT 9:45 A.M. ET:  Scott Rasmussen reports that Pat Toomey is solid for the U.S. Senate against Democrat Joe Sestak, although Pennsylvania is normally a Democratic state:

Republican Pat Toomey now holds a 10-point lead over Democratic Congressman Joe Sestak, the widest gap between the candidates since early April in Pennsylvania’s U.S. Senate race.

A new Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of Likely Voters in Pennsylvania shows Toomey earning 49% of the vote, while Sestak picks up 39% support. Two percent (2%) prefer some other candidate, but a sizable 10% remain undecided less than three weeks before Election Day.

The race now moves from Leans GOP to Solid GOP in the Rasmussen Reports Election 2010 Senate Balance of Power rankings.

Two weeks ago, Toomey, a conservative activist who formerly served in Congress, was ahead 49% to 40%, and earlier in September, he posted a 49% to 41% lead. Except for a brief bounce following his Democratic Primary win in mid-May over incumbent Senator Arlen Specter, Sestak has run second to Toomey in every survey since February.

COMMENT:  That's very good news, and we hope it continues.  Sestak is a strange cat.  He's a former Navy vice admiral, but seems to have left the Navy under a cloud, although he denies it.  Toomey is a solid conservative and deserves a seat in the Senate. 

October 14, 2010      Permalink

UNBELIEVABLE BLUNDER – AT 9:10 A.M. ET:  In a stunning development at the UN, Canada has been denied a seat among the non-permanent members of the Security Council.  Canada, a founding member of the UN, has had the seat each decade since the organization was founded in 1945.   Of course, Canada is one of our closest allies, and is now run by the conservative government of Steve Harper.  So the American role in this setback is stunning.  From Fox News:

The United Nations General Assembly elected five new Security Council members this week. India, South Africa and Colombia ran in uncontested races from the Asian, African and Latin American regional groups and will begin serving on the Security Council in January.

But the remaining races were contested, with Germany, Portugal and Canada competing for two seats from the Western European and Others group. With the European Union already represented by veto-wielding France and Great Britain on the Security Council, and either Portugal or Germany certain to win another seat for the EU, it was critical that America’s close ally Canada win a two-year term.

The U.S. could use the help in pushing for U.N. reform and advocating pro-democracy policies. The current conservative government in Canada had been campaigning for months to sit on the U.N.’s most powerful committee with no public support from the Obama administration.

In fact, U.S. State Department insiders say that U.S. Ambassador Susan Rice not only didn’t campaign for Canada’s election but instructed American diplomats to not get involved in the weeks leading up to the heated contest. With no public American support, Canada lost its bid to serve. That gives the EU more than 25% control of the body and a strong voting block to ensure EU priorities become global priorities. -- This was the second time a high profile ally could have used U.S. help yet Rice chose to stay silent.

The other ally not helped by one of Rice's silent spells was Israel.

I'm sure Canada, which has always been there for us, will appreciate Barack Hussein Obama's indifference.  I suspect our position had something to do with the fact that Canada's government is conservative at the moment.  Also, Canada is part of the British Commonwealth, and you know how Barack feels about the Brits.  Remember how he sent a bust of Churchill back to Britain, right at the start of his administration?

Another great moment in American foreign policy.  It's becoming a hazard to be an ally of the United States.

October 14, 2010      Permalink

REAL NICE, HUH? – AT 8:36 A.M. ET:  From Andrew Breitbart's Big Peace blog:

So would aiding and abetting terrorists to kill US soldiers qualify as behavior unbefitting of a sitting US senator?

On October 12, Scott Swett at the American Thinker reported that Senator Barbara Boxer (D-CA) along with Representatives Raul Grijalva (D-AZ), Dennis Kucinich (D-OH) and Henry Waxman (D-CA) secured diplomatic courtesy letters that allowed anti-American Code Pink activists to travel to Fallujah, Iraq. The radicals traveled to Fallujah in late 2004 to donate $600,000 worth of humanitarian aid to the people who had just killed 51 Americans and wounded 560 more earlier that month. Operation Phantom Fury in Fallujah was the heaviest US urban combat since the Vietnam War.

And...

Swett reported on how Barbara Boxer and Code Pink assisted terrorists in Iraq:

Perhaps the most revealing window into Boxer’s true feelings towards our military is her close alliance with Code Pink, a radical leftist group that reviles American troops as terrorists and assassins while praising their enemies as freedom fighters. For years, Code Pink has viciously harassed wounded veterans and their families outside Walter Reed Hospital, even telling the mother of a slain Navy Seal that her son “deserved to die.” Code Pink actively supports terror groups such as Hamas, the Muslim Brotherhood, the Taliban, Hezbollah and al Qaeda.

The Code Pink website repeatedly praises “our beloved Barbara Boxer.” And why not? Boxer has worked with the group and supported its goals on many occasions. In early 2005, Boxer was the only member of the Senate to oppose certifying the Electoral College result that returned George Bush to office for a second term. Code Pink hosted rallies and participated in various demonstrations and marches to “defend democracy” against the results of the 2004 elections. They wrapped up the event at Senator Boxer’s California office, “singing her songs of thanks.”

COMMENT:  That nails it.  Boxer is up for reelection, but you may be sure that the mainstream media will never bring this up.  If they did, they'd be accused of "McCarthyism," the standard accusation of the left. 

Code Pink is just an old-line red operation, with loads of money.  One of its chief honchos, Jodie Evans, was also a major fundraiser for Barack Obama, when he ran for president.  There was a time when any respectable candidate for public office would turn down help from the likes of Evans, but Obama welcomed it.  No comment by the mainstream media.

This story should sicken you.  The question is why the people who give us the "news" aren't sickened as well.

Barbara Boxer, one of the most ineffective senators in the Senate, is up for reelection, and is leading in the polls in California.  That's the pity.

October 14, 2010      Permalink

REVERSAL (CONT'D) – AT 8:12 A.M. ET:  Last night we told you that Patty Murray, Democratic senator from Washington state, was improving dramatically in the polls, and that West Virginia was also, in its Senate race, moving toward the Democratic column.

We hate to report somber news, but we have to.  This morning's RealClearPolitics Senate-race summary reflects some Democratic progress.  A few days ago, RCP had the projected Senate tied at 48-48, with four toss ups.  That's now changed to 48 Dems, 46 Republicans, with six toss ups.

The toss ups are:  California, Colorado, Illinois, Nevada, Washington, and West Virginia. 

The problem here is that all six could easily go Democratic, leaving the GOP with a gain of only five seats in the new Senate, not exactly what we've dreamed about. 

There are also some expected GOP House victories suddenly in jeopardy, both in Ohio.  In one case the candidate was caught wearing Nazi uniforms in "reenactments."  Real smart.  Get yourself photographed in Nazi garb and try to explain it during a campaign.

We hope for better news.  We have less than three weeks to go.  This is the period when the electorate starts to focus strongly on the election.  Things are fluid.  Take nothing for granted.

October 14, 2010     Permalink

WEDNESDAY, OCTOBER 13, 2010

MEANWHILE, IN THE REAL WORLD – AT 8:09 P.M. ET:   While we're fighting our campaign, events in the Middle East are troubling.  Hezbollah, a terrorist organization and one of the most dangerous groups in the world, is driving to take over Lebanon, once seen as a moderate state.

To help Hezbollah's henchmen do their black magic, Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad is making a guest appearance in Lebanon this week.  Reader Joseph J. Gallick refers us to this story, from the Wall Street Journal:

BEIRUT—Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad arrived to cheers from crowds of adoring Lebanese Shiites in this Arab nation for his first state visit, a trip seen as a move to bolster Tehran's ally, Hezbollah.

Just what we need – Ahmadinejad and his friends on the border of Israel, and taking over a nominal ally of the United States like Lebanon.

The trip comes amid growing political tension with the group's pro-Western partners in a delicate coalition government and has put the region on a tense footing. Mr. Ahmadinejad is expected to visit southern Lebanon later this week, perhaps venturing as far as the tense border with Israel. That frontier was the site of a deadly border clash between Israeli and Lebanese forces as recently as August.

That incident sharply raised regional tensions and heightened worry in the U.S. that Lebanon's independent—and partially U.S.-funded—military is being influenced by Hezbollah, the Shiite political and militant group supported by Iran and Syria.

Tens of thousands of middle-class Shiites, workers, children and students alike heeded the call by Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah to greet the Iranian leader and thank him for the hundreds of millions of dollars funneled from Iran to Shiite communities here after years of discrimination by Lebanese leaders. Underscoring the sectarian divide here, Beirut's main thoroughfares and streets leading through Shiite neighborhoods were lined with slick posters and homemade signs greeting the Iranian leader. In comparison, streets were bare of such adornment in Sunni neighborhoods and other sectarian enclaves elsewhere in Lebanon.

COMMENT:  Do the words "civil war" ring a bell?  Lebanon has fought those wars, bitterly, in the past, and the country looks ripe for another round of civil strife, with Iran dictating the moves on the Hezbollah side. 

Oh, didn't Mr. Obama wage a major "outreach" campaign in this part of the world?  Results, please?  Results are zero.

Your move, Mr. President.  The election will be over in three weeks.  International turmoil will go on a bit longer.

If Hezbollah takes over Lebanon, I believe it will be the first time an officially designated terrrorist group controls an entire country.  Not change we can believe in.

October 13, 2010      Permalink

REVERSAL IN WASHINGTON STATE – AT 7:43 P.M. ET:  A new series of polls puts Patty Murray, non-accomplishing Democratic senator from Washington, well ahead of GOP challenger Dino Rossi.  A week ago Rossi looked like he was essentially even with Murray, widely considered one of the weakest members of the Senate. 

The reason for Murray's advance?  One solidly reported story today said that Murray is going strongly after the women's vote, and emphasizing Rossi's pro-life stance.  Murray is right out of the 1960s, and apparently believes that abortion is the big issue.  In a so-called "progressive" (read "regressive") state like Washington, she may, sadly, be right.  She's now 30 points ahead among women, and it's hard to see how Rossi can counter that.

In fact, in the so-called toss up states, where Senate races are very tight, the odds are against Republicans because these states are fundamentally Democratic.  Carly Fiorina is still running behind Barbara Boxer, twin sister in non-accomplishment with Patty Murray, in California.  And in West Virginia, a race that looked as if it was leaning toward the GOP is now dead even, with popular Democratic Governor Joe Manchin now gaining on GOP challenger John Raese.  Machin is trying to distance himself from the deadly unpopular Barack Obama, and is running an ad showing him shooting – with a real shootin' iron – at a target meant to represent Obama policies.

So we wait.  Right now the best prognosticators have the Republicans winding up with 48 senators on election day, and, if the present trend continues, that may just be right.  But we have three weeks to go, and GOP ad blitzes are coming.

October 13, 2010      Permalink

MAJOR WHITE HOUSE ACT OF DIPLOMACY – AT 9:54 A.M. ET:  Gotta hand it to Obama.   When he wants expertise, he certainly knows where to turn.  From CNN:

(CNN) - Actor George Clooney paid a visit to the White House on Tuesday to meet with President Barack Obama and discuss his recent trip to southern Sudan.

Joining Clooney in the Oval Office meeting was Enough Project Co-Founder John Prendergast, who joined him outside of the West Wing after the meeting to talk to press.

Clooney said, "I think we're very impressed with how involved, at the highest level, this administration is and now our job is to try and continue to keep it in the press and keep it, to keep the light turned on for the next 90 days while we try and broker a peace deal, which is what they're working on right now."

While "we" try to broker a peace deal?  Does Clooney's agent know he's doing this?  Is he guaranteed a percentage of Sudan's gross profits?  Will the credit read, "Peace deal by George Clooney, from an idea by Barack Obama?"

The actor was heading to Capitol Hill to meet with Republican Indiana Sen. Dick Lugar, the ranking Republican on the Senate Foreign Relations Committee.

COMMENT:  Do you get the feeling it's amateur night in Washington?

But you can reserve seats now.

October 13, 2010      Permalink

SNIPPET OF THE DAY – AT 9:25 A.M. ET:

GEORGETOWN, Ga., Oct. 12 (UPI) -- A Georgia man caught cheating on his girlfriend said he is completing a list of six tasks she set for him to win back her heart.  Greg Tracy, 22, a soldier stationed at Hunter Army Airfield, said he stood on a Georgetown street corner Sunday for an hour wearing a "Scooby Doo" hat and holding a sign detailing his transgression and labeling himself a "dog," the Savannah Morning News reported Tuesday.  "I lied and cheated," Tracy said. "I have a list of things I have to do to win her back."

Let's get this woman working for us.  She knows how to treat members of Congress.

October 13, 2010      Permalink

CHALK ONE UP FOR THE PRESIDENT – AT 9:05 A.M. ET:   We're happy to rush in with the report that President Obama has one solid accomplishment to his credit.  He is making Americans nostalgic for George Bush.  John Fund of The Wall Street Journal gives us the remarkable revelation, and quotes Democratic pollster Stan Greenberg:

"Though voters agree the economy was an 'inherited' problem, they do not like to hear politicians blaming Bush or looking backwards," he concluded in his study. In an interview with Jane Hamsher of the blog Firedog Lake, Mr. Greenberg went on to say: "I'm really puzzled by Democratic leaders stuck in a message that demonstrably doesn't work." He puts it down to the president listening to economic advisers who want him to set a rhetorical tone that "will help confidence to come back."

But so far the only thing that seems to be coming back is nostalgia for George W. Bush. A new CNN poll finds voters still believe Mr. Obama is a better president than Mr. Bush was, but by only 47% to 45%. That's down from a whopping 23-point margin last year. "Democrats would be wise to think twice before bringing up the name of President Bush on the campaign trail this fall," says CNN Polling Director Keating Holland.

COMMENT:  We expected a political resurrection for Mr. Bush, but not this soon.  We thought the timing might be more Trumanesque – it took Mr. Truman some years to become popular again, after leaving the White House.  And look at Dick Cheney.  He packs 'em in wherever he goes, and just announced a new speaking tour.

President Bush will publish his memoir right after the election.  I suspect his popularity will increase even more.

October 13, 2010      Permalink

FASCINATING DISTRICT IN OUR "ROGUE" STATE – AT 8:48 A.M. ET:  The Obama administration seems to be engaged in a war against only one sovereign state in the world – Arizona.  And it actually got help from an Arizona congressman.  What is happening to that guy?  Michael Barone reports:

Amazing! Here’s a poll (by a firm unknown to me) showing Republican challenger Ruth McClung leading four–term Democratic incumbent Raul Grijalva 39%-37% in Arizona 7. This district was designed to be Arizona’s second Hispanic majority House district (it was 54% Hispanic in 2000) and to be safe Democratic (it voted 57%-42% for Barack Obama in 2008 and 57%-43% for John Kerry in 2004). So it would be amazing if rocket scientist McClung (yes, apparently she actually is a rocket scientist) won here.

What’s interesting here is that Grijalva has supported the tourist boycott of Arizona in retaliation for the passage of Senate Bill 1070 which he, like Barack Obama, has portrayed as a grievous violation of civil liberties.  Apparently some voters in Arizona 7 don’t want their state boycotted.

The Democrats treat Hispanics the same way they treat African-Americans:  They believe they'll vote for anyone of their ethnic group and blindly follow the party.  The various Hispanic communities, however, are developing quite an independent streak, and the Democratic attitude of "they're in our pocket" may be in for a rude shock.

Latest polling from Arizona indicates that the GOP can conceivably make a solid dent in the Arizona House delegation, currently 5-3 Democratic. 

October 13, 2010      Permalink

POLLING LATEST – AT 8:17 A.M. ET:  From The Hill:

Republicans are winning eight out of 10 competitive open House seats surveyed in a groundbreaking new poll by The Hill.

Taken on top of 11 GOP leads out of 12 freshman Democratic districts polled last week, The Hill 2010 Midterm Election Poll points toward 19 Republican victories out of 22 races, while Democrats win only two and one is tied.

This is part of a continuing series of Hill polls.  The result thus far...

...suggests a string of important pickup victories by the GOP in the midterm election just three weeks away.

Republican candidates have taken big leads in two districts Democrats have held for nearly a century and a half-century, respectively, according to The Hill’s survey. A Republican is also ahead in the heavily Democratic district that contains President Obama’s hometown of Honolulu.

Many races are tight — 12 of the 22 fall within the margin of error — but the margins, though slim, preponderantly favor the GOP.

COMMENT:  Absolutely remarkable.  Not to be a party pooper, but I want to point out the number of races falling within the margin of error...demonstrating the need to keep fighting and campaigning up until the last minute.  We can smile at the trend, but the smile will be wider if it's confirmed on election night.

October 13, 2010     Permalink