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ELECTION - 25 days from today

FRIDAY, OCTOBER 8, 2010

THE SARAH FACTOR – AT 8:51 P.M. ET:  Like her or not like her, Sarah Palin is the most intriguing political personality in America today.  She is also one of the most influential.  The buzz about a possible 2012 run for the presidency is growing.

But Palin's negatives are very high, partly because of the unprecedented smear campaign waged against her by the media in 2008, and partly because of her own mistakes and, at times, lack of preparation.  She's improved dramatically, in my view, and is now hinting at a run for the White House.  The Politico reports:

Speaking to a group of well-connected Republicans at a private dinner in Florida this week, Sarah Palin implicitly addressed questions about her own electability by noting that critics also said Ronald Reagan couldn’t win in 1980, three attendees told POLITICO.

Palin, at an event organized by the conservative magazine Newsmax, told the right-wing crowd that those who don’t have the same convictions will always say a true conservative can’t win.

She makes a good point, of course, but please note that Ronald Reagan had been a two-term governor of our most populous state. 

Pointing out that the knock on Reagan was that he was also too far to the right, the former Alaska governor repeatedly invoked the 40th president and conservative icon, at one point citing the quotation he was most fond of: that America is a “shining city on a hill.”

“I think she sees herself as heir to Reagan,” said one attendee.

And it could turn out that way.  The Republican establishment was afraid of Reagan in 1980, and, as many readers will recall, tried to saddle him with former President Gerald Ford as his vice presidential choice, running together as a "co-presidency."  That idea, thankfully, went nowhere.

Her invoking of the Gipper at a closed-door gathering illustrates that Palin is, at the very least, thinking through how she’d make her case if she pursued the presidency. And combined with the recent revelation of an e-mail her husband, Todd, sent to Alaska Senate hopeful Joe Miller excoriating him for not saying Palin was qualified to be president, her private comments make clear that the 2008 vice-presidential candidate wants other Republicans to take her seriously as a White House prospect.

I like Sarah Palin.  I've had some doubts about her, but she has grown, she is more assertive, and I still like her.  If she runs, she'd make the 2012 race for the GOP nomination the most interesting since that great contest in 1980.  And hey, as we say in New York, yah never know.

October 8, 2010      Permalink

BUSH RESURGENT – AT 7:42 P.M. ET:  Many on our side believed President George W. Bush would gain respect as the years passed, but who knew it would happen this quickly?  From NPR:

According to a CNN/Opinion Research poll, respondents to a survey this week were essentially split on the question of who was a better president, Barack Obama or George W. Bush.

Unfortunately for Obama, he was essentially tied with Bush on that question, 47 percent to 45 percent.

A year ago, Obama had a 23-percentage point lead on that question over Bush.

Ah, those were the days, the days when college kids could chant, "Bush lied, thousands died," and be taken seriously.  All gone with the wind.

Mr. Bush will soon publish his memoirs.  And he's making public appearances:

In a rare public appearance, former President George W. Bush talked about life out of the limelight and took a jab at what the "elites" might be thinking of his upcoming book.

"I have written a book. This will come as a shock to some of the elites. They didn't think I could read a book, much less write one," Bush quipped...

...The 64-year-old said the tome gives some understanding to the decisions he made on tough issues like the handling of 9/11 and the Iraq war. The president, who has become a target of both Democrats and President Obama since he left office, refused to comment on the current state of political affairs. "You're not going to see me out opining or offering my critique. Frankly, I don't think it's good for the country to have a former president criticize his successor," Bush said.

President Obama has repeatedly blamed the "Bush-era policies" for today's lethargic economic condition.

A clear case of class versus no class, and the American voters are figuring it out.

The Bush book will be out after election, so it won't influence the vote.  But it's good to see the start of a reappraisal of the Bush administration.  It wasn't perfect, by any means.  But it wasn't the train wreck portrayed in the liberal media either.

October 8, 2010      Permalink

SNIPPET OF THE DAY – AT 7:25 P.M. ET:

SOUTHAMPTON, England, Oct. 8 (UPI) -- The British charter company behind a 100-year anniversary cruise following the Titanic's path said cabins are nearly sold out for the April 2012 trip.

I would have bought a ticket, but the cruise doesn't include the iceberg.  What a gyp.

October 8, 2010      Permalink

ECONOMIC BULLETIN – AT 8:53 A.M. ET:  The economy is going in reverse.  From Bloomberg:

The U.S. lost more jobs than forecast in September, reflecting a decline in government payrolls that shows the damage being done by rising fiscal deficits.

Employers cut staffing by 95,000 workers after a revised 57,000 decrease in August, Labor Department figures in Washington showed today. The median estimate of economists surveyed by Bloomberg News called for a 5,000 drop. The unemployment rate unexpectedly held at 9.6 percent.

Private payrolls that exclude government agencies climbed 64,000, less than forecast, underscoring the concern expressed by some Federal Reserve policy makers that the rebound from the worst recession since the 1930s has been too slow and may require easier monetary policy. Economists surveyed by Bloomberg project unemployment will average at least 9 percent through 2011, which may restrain consumer spending, the biggest part of the economy.

COMMENT:  That is a disastrous report.  How will the White House spin it?  How will any Democratic candidate explain it?  The deep recession goes on, with no end in sight. 

That is one reason why this election, now three and a half weeks away, is so critical.

October 8, 2010      Permalink

DO YOU SENSE FEAR? – AT 8:43 A.M. ET:  One of Obama's major political gurus, is speaking out on the Republican Party.  From The Politico:

The Republican Party’s tea party candidates are energizing a deflated Democratic base and could wreak havoc with the GOP’s 2012 presidential primary process, David Plouffe, the architect of President Barack Obama’s 2008 campaign, said Thursday.

Plouffe predicted that Republican presidential hopefuls would run to the far right to court the Sarah Palin wing of the party, which ultimately could push the GOP nominee out of the mainstream.

But as for the prospects of running against the former Alaska governor head-on, Plouffe quipped: “Something tells me we won’t get that lucky.”

COMMENT:  Do you get the feeling he's desperately afraid of her?  With all her shortcomings, Sarah Palin is the most fascinating political figure in America today.  All she has to do is put a paragraph on her Facebook page, and it's major news immediately.  Some three quarters of the candidates she endorsed in GOP primaries won their races.

Sarah's negatives are high, too high for a national race.  But they can be brought down over time.  She's gotten better and more confident as a speaker.  With some careful maneuvering, she can energize what used to be called "the forgotten American." 

Plouffe, be careful what you wish for.

October 8, 2010      Permalink

WE HOPE THIS ISN'T TRUE – 8:25 A.M. ET:  Another Florida story.  Is there any limit to the cynicism in politics?  From The Wall Street Journal:

TAMPA -- Republican leaders in the Sunshine State are fretting that a deal may be in the works to get Democratic nominee Kendrick Meek out of the Florida Senate race in order to boost Charlie Crist's flagging chances of beating Republican Marco Rubio.

You may recall that Crist, the incumbent governor, was a Republican until it was clear he'd lose the GOP primary for the US Senate to Rubio.  Then, poof, he became an independent and we have a three-way race.

Across the state, groups such as Palm Beach Democrats for Crist and Tampa Democrats for Crist are emerging. Republican fears are further stoked by the almost universal acknowledgment that Mr. Meek has almost no chance to win. Statewide polling has his support in the teens and falling. His money coffers are all but dry. Democrats had hoped that when Mr. Crist abandoned the GOP for an independent run, it would split the Republican vote and propel Mr. Meek into the winner's circle. With four weeks to go, no one believes that now. Mr. Meek, who is African-American, polls strongly only with black voters.

Meanwhile, Mr. Crist is striving to assemble a center-left coalition by winning over Democratic voters. His latest mailing throughout the state was titled "Ten Reasons Democrats Should Vote for Charlie Crist." On issues from health care to taxes, Mr. Crist has moved dramatically to the left.

Does Crist have any principles left?  Any?  Aside from "elect me"?

Mr. Crist has also refused to say which party he would caucus with if he wins. His latest nonanswer: "I will caucus with the people." But Mr. Crist has met privately with Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid, adding to GOP paranoia that Democrats may be getting ready to throw the sure loser Mr. Meek over the side. One Republican Party leader tells me he wouldn't be surprised to hear suddenly that "Meek was offered an ambassadorship from Barack Obama."

If Meek pulls out and his votes go to Crist, Crist could defeat Rubio, then announce he's a Democrat.  That assumes, however, that Floridians accept Crist's self-promotion and cynicism.  It also assumes that virtually all of Meek's voters, heavily African American, are willing to see their man thrown overboard.  I doubt if blacks would march to Crist's tune simply because someone asks them too.

Still, a Meek pullout could put Rubio's win in jeopardy, and Rubio is a major, rising Republican star.

October 8, 2010    Permalink

END OF A BULLY? – AT 8:04 A.M. ET:  Bigmouth Alan Grayson is perhaps the most despised freshman in the House of Representatives.  The Florida Democrat has become famous for his poor taste and lack of minimal adult self-control.  He recently created an uproar when he took snippets of a speech by his GOP opponent, Dan Webster, and ran them out of context, making Webster "say" the opposite of what he was actually saying, and sound like a religious extremist.  It was typical Grayson, as The Washington Examiner points out:

Grayson has been involved in so many dust-ups, scrapes and other indignities that it's surprising to realize he has only been in office 20 months. From describing the Republican health plan as hoping the sick will "die quickly" to calling a top official at the Federal Reserve a "K Street whore" to saying of former Vice President Dick Cheney that "blood ... drips from his teeth while he's talking" to "Taliban Dan" -- well, a lot of people in Florida and Washington won't be sad to see him go.

And he might just be going:

A poll taken by Sunshine State News at the time of the ad controversy showed Webster with a 7-point lead, 43 percent to 36 percent. Barring any unforeseen events, that's likely to hold. The 8th District was Republican for almost 30 years, until the Obama-Grayson victories of 2008. Now it appears to be moving back to the GOP.

There are occasionally sweet moments in politics, and seeing this obnoxious fool Grayson defeated would be one of them.  By the way, he has an absolutely stellar academic history, which shows once again that high grades and common sense don't always fit together.

You can get a taste of Grayson on YouTube here.  Take seasickness pills first.

October 8, 2010     Permalink

THURSDAY, OCTOBER 7, 2010

CRISIS IN PAKISTAN – AT 8:24 P.M. ET:  I noted earlier today that one of the effects of a weak economy is to divert attention from foreign threats.  Add to a weak economy the focus on an upcoming election, and attention is diverted even further. 

Which brings us to the crisis with Pakistan.  Washington is now open about charges that parts of Pakistan's intelligence agency are working with the Taliban.  And there have been attacks on NATO convoys in Pakistan this week, convoys that bring supplies to allied forces in Afghanistan.  Further, Pakistanis are angry at the U.S. over drone strikes within its borders.  But Washington justifies the strikes on grounds that they're aimed at Al Qaeda.  From Fox News:

The Pentagon acknowledged Thursday that some parts of Pakistan's intelligence agency are cooperating with terrorist groups as a new report suggests Inter-Service Intelligence agents are working to undermine U.S. and NATO forces in Afghanistan.

Spokesman Col. Dave Lapan said the Pakistan intelligence service as an organization does not support terrorism, but some elements within the ISI are providing assistance to terrorists.

U.S. officials have raised concerns about whether some members of the ISI "might be interacting with terrorist organizations in ways that aren't consistent with what the government and military are doing," Lapan said.

Lapan was responding after a report in The Wall Street Journal that suggested the ISI is pushing the Taliban to keep fighting in Afghanistan, undermining efforts by the Pentagon to end the war.

The Journal quotes an Afghan commander in Kunar province who said the ISI is still urging and paying Taliban to fight NATO soldiers.

Pakistan possesses nuclear weapons, and the security of those weapons is a major concern for the U.S.  Clearly, our relations with Pakistan are deteriorating, and the country is, just as clearly, a major base for terror groups. 

If Pakistan becomes unstable, and slips under the control of radical elements, our effort in Afghanistan will almost surely fail.  This is a major story, which would be getting more attention had we not been involved with the election.  But watch it grow once the election is over.  Pakistan, plus Iran, will determine whether Barack Obama is a clone of Neville Chamberlain, or something much better.

October 7, 2010     Permalink

ELECTION BRIEFS – AT 7:53 P.M. ET:  We'll be running regular election briefs until this year's election is decided:

*  RealClearPolitics now has the new Senate pegged as an even split, with 50 Republicans and 48 Democrats, with two independents who vote with the Dems.  No toss ups.

*  RealClearPolitics also has the House pegged as 210 Republicans, 186 Democrats, with 39 toss ups.  The Dems would have to win 32 of the 39 toss ups to overcome the GOP lead, assuming the other 7 races went to Republicans.

* By contrast. some races are being locked up by Democrats, but all are on the East Coast, which Barry Goldwater suggested be sawed off and sent out to sea.  I would agree, but I live there, and I like visiting with my children.

Carl Paladino, the GOP candidate for governor of New York, is justifiably losing ground to terminally obnoxious Andrew Cuomo.  A plague on both their houses.  Paladino is a hothead who throws tantrums and uses racial language in e-mails.  Fundamentally, a jerk with money.  Cuomo will win.

In Connecticut, all polls show insufferable Democratic nominee Richard Blumenthal, who lied about his service record, pulling comfortably ahead of GOP nominee Linda McMahon.  This could have been an upset for the GOP, but McMahon, who actually has a very affecting style, is weighed down by her history with the Worldwide Wrestling Federation, not considered a class act in Connecticut.

Christine O'Donnell is way behind in Delaware, and, barring a miracle, will lose to very liberal Democrat Chris Coons, who may be to the left of Obama.  O'Donnell's nomination, won in a primary, was a serious GOP error.  She's a devoted young woman, but has more baggage than American Airlines. 

Elsewhere in the country, though, signs are good for the Republicans.

But there are 26 days to go.  Things change...we hope for the better.

October 7, 2010      Permalink 

BARACK FREUD SPEAKS – AT 10:40 A.M. ET:  It is very important that you read this post in order to improve yourself, so you can be as good, decent, thoughtful and philosophical as our dear leader.   This is what we all strive to be, right?  From USA Today:

President Obama says Democrats tend to be self-critical -- and that can be both a good thing and a bad thing.

Ah yes, a good thing and a bad thing.  That is philosophy.  Did BUSH (!!) ever say anything so profound?

"One of the strengths of Democrats is that we don't march lockstep," Obama told New Jersey Democratic donors last night. "We like to have internal arguments and we're very self-critical. We tend to look at the glass as half empty. And that makes us better."

Pass that on.  Pass that on.  Make sure all your neighbors know. 

"But," he added, "that's also a weakness, particularly four weeks before an election."

Yes, a weakness.  Are you taking notes?  Are you applying this to your own life?  There'll be a pop quiz.

The president warned fellow Democrats against "losing sight of that long game, and we start sulking and sitting back and not doing everything we can do to make sure our folks turn out."

Remember that:  No sulking.  To sulk is to lose.  Obama said that.  Write, write.

Now do you understand why Barack Obama is king of the world?  We haven't had such a profound thinker in the White House since...since...Jimmah Carter.  And he won a Nobel Peace Prize, so he must be good.

We look forward to more wisdom from dear leader, and we will pass it on to you.

October 7, 2010      Permalink 

NOT SO FAST, DEMOCRATS – AT 9:39 A.M. ET:  The Dem party line in the last four or five days is that they're staging a comeback, keeping the unclean Republicans at bay, and making the world safe for bankruptcy.  But talk of a comeback may be premature as Hotline points out:

...when you look at the national polling metrics and the race-by-race picture in the House, there's little evidence of any Democratic comeback. If anything, Republicans are in as strong a position to win back control of the House as they have been this entire election cycle.

And...

...a staggeringly high number of Democratic incumbents are below the 50 percent mark, including members in much of the polling conducted by Democratic firms released to counteract the GOP narrative. House Race Hotline editor Tim Sahd compiled an invaluable database of all the House race polling conducted this cycle and found 66 Democratic incumbents sitting below that magic 50 percent number.

That number should send shivers down the spines of Democratic strategists. In 2008, when Democrats coasted to victory across the board, 32 House Republican incumbents were under the 50 percent mark in the last poll of the cycle, and 14 of them lost -- a 44 percent mortality rate. When you account for all the vulnerable open seats and the competitive races where polling hasn't yet been released, it's very hard to see how Democrats can hold their majority.

And...

Our House Race Rankings now list 79 races as squarely in play, 72 of them held by Democrats, and other competitive races just missing the cutoff mark. It's hard for either party to keep track of all these late-emerging races, much less build up an opposition dossier in time to run ads against challengers.

Finally...

The fundamentals of this midterm have been troublesome all year for Democrats, and as the election draws closer, the gloomy national numbers are translating into seemingly safe members facing the fights of their political careers. House Democrats are still staring at a Category 5 hurricane that looks likely to sweep away their majority, with the real possibility that some of their most entrenched members could be among the victims.

COMMENT:  I certainly hope this chap is right.  But we should also pay attention to the Senate, where a GOP takeover is much more problematical.  The Senate is where Supreme Court nominations are confirmed or rejected, and where treaties are either ratified or voted down.  Those two critical functions can influence policy for a generation, not a year. 

Most estimates have the GOP increasing its numbers in the Senate, but falling a few votes short of a majority.  I think we're looking at 48 GOP seats in the new Senate, as opposed to 41 today.  We need a push in these last weeks to create the needed miracle. 

October 7, 2010       Permalink 

SNIPPET OF THE DAY – AT 8:45 A.M. ET:

From Fox:  NEW YORK -- New Yorkers on food stamps would not be allowed to spend them on sugar-sweetened drinks under an obesity-fighting proposal being floated by Mayor Michael Bloomberg and Gov. David Paterson.  Bloomberg and Paterson planned to announce Thursday that they are seeking permission from the U.S. Department of Agriculture, which administers the nation's food stamp program, to add sugary drinks to the list of prohibited goods for city residents receiving assistance.

So a guy on food stamps wants a soda with his sandwich, and can't buy it because billionaire Mayor Mike doesn't think it's good for him.  Talk about the nanny state.  It's here.  There's serious talk that Mayor Mike may be the next secretary of the Treasury.  Be prepared for a list of things you can't buy with your U.S.-minted dollars.  Just trying to make this a better world, says Mayor Mike.

Go away.

October 7, 2010      Permalink

A WARNING FROM HISTORY – AT 8:10 A.M. ET:  If I may, a few words about how our economy might lead us to a military confrontation far larger than any we have today.

There are a number of effects of a weak economy on foreign and defense policy.  One of the major causes of World War II was the Depression.  Americans, and Europeans, had little patience for talk of a Hitler, of German rearmament, or Japanese expansion in Asia.  People at home were suffering.  Tens of millions were out of work.  Americans were losing hope.  The idea that a national administration would devote precious resources to building ships and planes to counter a then-theoretical threat seemed absurd.

The result was that we were woefully unprepared for World War II, both physically and psychologically.  It is ironic that the Depression was one of the causes of the war, for it was the war that ended the Depression.

The psychology today is remarkably similar to that of the late 1930s.  American support for the war in Afghanistan has waned, with most Americans wanting out.  The sense of urgency we felt after the 9-11 attacks is largely gone (although another attack could bring it back).  We are seriously talking of cutting our defense budget, even though both the Air Force and Navy are flying the oldest fleets of planes in our history. 

Perhaps worst of all, we are ignoring the expansion of Islamist extremism and militarism.

We are also ignoring the rise of a militant, and well equipped China.  The recent news that China is developing missiles to sink American aircraft carriers in the western Pacific was greeted with a huge yawn.

So, a warning from history:  If we take our eye off the foreign-policy ball, we will pay for it, and pay a heavy price.  The Islamists are not affected by economic downturns.  They will live in caves if necessary.  The Chinese will build their powerful military, despite any economic cost.  We may think of Russia as weak, but Russia was far weaker economically as World War II approached, and made mincemeat of the Nazi armies on the Eastern front.

There is a prevailing "wisdom" on the American left that we really don't face any serious military threats, that it's all a creation of the "neo-cons."  That is an awful myth, and we must destroy that myth before it destroys us.

October 7, 2010      Permalink

NEW YORK POLL STUNNER – AT 7:58 A.M. ET:  New York is about as blue a state as possible, yet look at the results of a new poll:

WASHINGTON -- Most of the New Yorkers considered likely to head to the polls in November have an unfavorable opinion of President Obama, according to a new poll -- an extraordinary development in a state he carried with 62 percent of the vote two years ago.

Just 45 percent of likely New York voters approve of the job Obama is doing as president, compared to 48 percent who disapprove, according to the CNN poll.

COMMENT:  Remember that this is a poll of "likely voters."  Once again we see, as we're seeing nationally, that likely voters are much, much more likely to lean Republican and certainly to lean against Obama.  In 2008 Obama was able to tap millions of people who normally don't vote, primarily by appealing to ethnic and class pride.  But the bloom is certainly off the rose, and that tactic does not appear to be working any longer.  What Obama is left with is an angry electorate that does not see him as a cute novelty.  Times are serious.  Families are desperate.  The time for show business is long past.

October 7, 2010     Permalink