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ELECTION - tomorrow

I'll be on "The Conservative Hispanic" on KVCE Dallas at 10 this morning, ET.  Hear it at 1160 on your Dallas AM dial, or at KVCEradio.com on the internet.

MONDAY, NOVEMBER 1, 2010

HE FINALLY NOTICED – AT 8:35 P.M. ET:  President Obama committed a major blunder recently, and Republicans were poised to come down hard on him on the last day of campaigning.  He finally woke up.  From The New York Times:

WASHINGTON (AP) — A day before the pivotal midterm elections, President Barack Obama pulled back from remarks he made last month when he called on Latino voters to punish their "enemies" on Election Day. In an interview Monday with radio host Michael Baisden, Obama said he should have used the word "opponents" instead of enemies.

Republicans were quick to criticize the president's remarks. House Minority Leader John Boehner was expected to use Obama's words in an election eve speech in Ohio to paint the president as a staunch partisan.

"Sadly, we have a president who uses the word 'enemy' for fellow Americans, fellow citizens. He used it for people who disagree with his agenda of bigger government," Boehner said, according to prepared remarks released in advance of his speech.

Obama's original comments came during an interview with Eddie "Piolin" Sotelo, a Hispanic radio personality. Piolin questioned how Obama could ask Latinos for their vote when many don't believe he's worked hard to pass comprehensive immigration reform.

COMMENT:  The record will show that Obama only apologized when it became evident the Republicans would use the word "enemies" against him.  He seemed to have no concern about the concept, which is one of the problems with this administration.  Arrogance.

November 1, 2010      Permalink

THE LAST DAY OF CAMPAIGNING – AT 8:00 P.M. ET:  And it's almost over.  A sweep of the news networks and the internet this evening reveals that nothing important has changed today. 

Democrats may be feeling a bit more optimistic in West Virginia, and Republicans seem somewhat spirited about Washington state.  But these are feelings.  There has been no last-minute jolt, no major event in the news that migjht change things.

Fox News is putting great emphasis on the possibility of voter fraud, and has even set up an e-mail address for voters to report suspicions.  It's Voterfraud@Foxnews.com.  Fox's Eric Shawn reports that many, many complaints have already come in.  In very close elections, this is the issue to watch.

If you want an indication of what, at base, this election is about, look no further than a headline today at Salon:

The unbearable stupidity of American voters 

Nice, huh?  That is the attitude that Americans see coming from the liberal left, and, for good reason, they don't like it.  How many votes do you think you get by calling voters "stupid"?  I believe that, although the economy is the main issue, there is an underlying resentment toward the snotties in the Obama administration and in the liberal media, and they are being sent a clear message.

We'll be blogging tomorrow, tomorrow night, and through Wednesday morning, until control of each body of Congress is decided.  I have a recurring dream about Barbara Boxer's concession speech.  Oh yes, I have a dream today.

November 1, 2010     Permalink

OUTRAGEOUS AND UNACCEPTABLE – AT 9:13 A.M. ET:  What are the Obamans thinking, if anything?  From AFP:

The United States will come under the spotlight at the UN's top human rights assembly's for the first time over the coming week along with other countries that face scrutiny by the Human Rights Council.
The 12-day session of the 47 member council starting on Monday will include regular "universal periodic reviews" of 16 members of the United Nations, including the United States on November 5.

Several dozen non governmental organisation are expected to lobby the debate on the US human rights record, while Washington will also defend its record.

This is sickening.  The Human Rights Council is one of the most corrupt bodies in the UN, and is run by some of the world's worst dictators. 

Some 300 US civil liberties and community groups in the US Human Rights Network on Monday called on the Obama administration to bring "substandard human rights practices" in the United States into line with international standards.

These are the usual suspects, the old red groups and their allies.  They will stop at nothing to embarrass the United States. 

The United States only agreed to join the Council in May 2009, after the Bush administration had shunned the body which replaced its similar though discredited predecessor, the UN human rights commission, in 2006.

Bush was right, Obama was wrong.  We're used to that already, aren't we?  The Human Rights Council is at least as discredited as its predecessor. 

The Network produced a 400-page report criticising "glaring inadequacies in the United States? human rights record," including the "discriminatory impact" of foreclosures, "widespread" racial profiling and "draconian" immigration policies.

Huh?  Draconian immigration policies?  Like what?  We've allowed millions of illegal immigrants to flood across our border and receive benefits and jobs.  Boy, how draconian is that? 

This is the usual "everything is racist" crowd. 

I hope a new Republican administration in 2013 will pull us out of this evil body and restore our self-respect.

November 1, 2010      Permalink

SNIPPET OF THE DAY – AT 8:45 A.M. ET:

Seeking to find some good news to disseminate amid a bounteous harvest of otherwise dire political predictions for Democrats in Tuesday's voting, the Democratic National Committee sent out a rapid response news release over the weekend.   It proudly announced that the committee, headed by President Obama favorite Tim Kaine, had just presented 11 different state parties with a total of $2.67 to split among themselves for last-minute expenses.

You see, Democrats are already getting into the spirit of cost-cutting.  They're learning that $2.67 goes a long way, when wisely spent.

November 1, 2010      Permalink

GALLUPING GALLUPS, WOULD YOU LOOK AT THIS – AT 8:23 A.M. ET:  The Gallup organization has now joined the list of those predicting a game changer tomorrow:

PRINCETON, NJ -- The final USA Today/Gallup measure of Americans' voting intentions for Congress shows Republicans continuing to hold a substantial lead over Democrats among likely voters, a lead large enough to suggest that regardless of turnout, the Republicans will win more than the 40 seats needed to give them the majority in the U.S. House.

The results are from Gallup's Oct. 28-31 survey of 1,539 likely voters. It finds 52% to 55% of likely voters preferring the Republican candidate and 40% to 42% for the Democratic candidate on the national generic ballot -- depending on turnout assumptions. Gallup's analysis of several indicators of voter turnout from the weekend poll suggests turnout will be slightly higher than in recent years, at 45%. This would give the Republicans a 55% to 40% lead on the generic ballot, with 5% undecided.

Republicans' 15-point lead among likely voters contrasts with their 4-point lead, 48% to 44%, among registered voters, highlighting the importance of higher GOP turnout to the election outcome. This wide difference between the GOP's margin among registered voters and its margin among likely voters is similar to the 2002 midterms, in which Democrats led by 5 points among all registered voters in Gallup's final pre-election poll, while Republicans led by 6 points among likely voters -- an 11-point gain.

COMMENT:  Gallup's model has shown the most dramatic leads for Republicans.  We will be very interested to know whether this model holds up tomorrow. 

I suspect that the GOP will wrap up a House majority fairly early in the evening, and that the Senate may well be the fascinating story once the House is secure.

November 1, 2010      Permalink

THIS IS RIDICULOUS – AT 8:04 A.M. ET:  The 2012 presidential sweepstakes have already begun, and dumb ideas are immediately making their appearance.  From The Politico:

Top Republicans in Washington and in the national GOP establishment say the 2010 campaign highlighted an urgent task that they will begin in earnest as soon as the elections are over: Stop Sarah Palin.

Interviews with advisers to the main 2012 presidential contenders and with other veteran Republican operatives make clear they see themselves on a common, if uncoordinated, mission of halting the momentum and credibility Palin gained with conservative activists by plunging so aggressively into this year’s midterm campaigns.

There is rising expectation among GOP elites that Palin will probably run for president in 2012 and could win the Republican nomination, a prospect many of them regard as a disaster in waiting.

Many of these establishment figures argue in not-for-attribution comments that Palin’s nomination would ensure President Barack Obama’s reelection, as the deficiencies that marked her 2008 debut as a vice presidential nominee — an intensely polarizing political style and often halting and superficial answers when pressed on policy — have shown little sign of abating in the past two years.

COMMENT:  I don't like using words like "stupid."  It's arrogant and lazy.  I'll make an exception this time.

First, "stop" anybody movements rarely work.  All they do is enhance the prestige of the target and make that person larger than life.  If a candidate is stopped, it's by the voters.

Second, dividing the party right out of the gate is not exactly smooth politics, coming right after what (we hope) will be a smashing victory.

Third, show me the money, or, rather, the candidate that these worthies want to throw up against Palin, and let's see if he, or she, can beat her.  That's the only "stop" movement that counts. 

I happen to agree that Palin remains polarizing, and has not corrected her deficiencies.  They're there, they're obvious, and they hurt.  But polls show that she doesn't do all that well in trial heats, even among conservatives.  If she runs for president, she should be treated as any other candidate.  If she improves that much and captures the nomination by the sheer quality of her candidacy, she deserves it.  If she falters, the voters will take care of the issue.

But please, no "stop" movements.  If you want to plan to stop anyone, make it Obama.

November 1, 2010      Permalink 

ONE DAY TO GO - AT 7:44 A.M. ET:  The last full day of campaigning is about to begin.  Some final polls are already out, with others expected later in the day.

Most interesting is a PPP (leans left) poll in Washington state showing Dino Rossi up two over Senator Patty Murray.

A PPP poll in Illinois shows Republican Mark Kirk up four over Dem candidate Giannoulias.  PPP in California, though, still has Barbara Boxer with a four-point lead over Carly Fiorina.  But RealClearPolitics has that race as a toss up.

RealClearPolitics is showing an average projected gain for Republicans in the House as a whopping 67 seats.  Well, we'll hope, but we'll see.

We are looking for any last-minute polls in Pennsylvania, West Virginia, and Delaware, which will be among the first states to come in tomorrow night.  If the GOP can win Robert Byrd's old Senate seat in West Virginia, the party has a shot at taking the Senate, assuming Pennsylvania also goes our way.  If both states go Dem, however, the Republicans can hope only for some significant gains in the Senate.  Delaware is more a curiosity.  How close can Christine O'Donnell actually come on election day?  So far, she's sliced Chris Coons's lead in half, but she's running out of time.

From every report we've seen, this is the most energized midterm election of our era.  One key question:  Has President Obama's constant (and at times, unseemly) campaigning been enough to turn out a good chunk of the Democratic base?  Two days from right now we'll know the answer and we'll be writing about it.

November 1, 2010     Permalink

SUNDAY, OCTOBER 31, 2010

TURNOUT IS THE KEY – AT 8:17 P.M. ET:  Polls are polls, but, as one of the most worn clichés in politics has it, the only poll that counts is the one on election day. 

Everything depends on turnout.  The projections, for our side, look good:

Pew Research Center's final 2010 pre-election survey finds the Republican Party continuing to hold a solid lead in preferences for Tuesday's midterm elections. The poll, conducted Oct. 27-30 among 2,373 registered voters, including 1,809 voters considered the most likely to vote, shows that 48% of likely voters say they will vote for the Republican in their district, compared with 42% who favor the Democratic candidate.

These results suggest little trend in voter opinion nationwide and they track results of a Pew Research Center poll conducted two weeks ago. That survey found the GOP holding a 50%-to-40% lead among likely voters. This is the third consecutive poll since September finding a significant Republican lead among likely voters.

The size and consistency of the probable Republican margin suggests that the party will win a large enough share of the popular vote nationwide to recapture control of the House of Representatives, barring a remarkable last-minute Democratic surge. A party's share of the popular vote and the number of seats it wins has been highly correlated in recent midterm elections.

COMMENT:  Of course, we hope the weather helps us on Tuesday.  Is it sacrilegious to pray for blizzards and locusts in certain coastal areas?  If it is, we'll settle for heavy rain and punishing winds.

By the way, there is a constant undercurrent of concern about voter fraud.  Look for charges of fraud Tuesday night.  The usual suspects are St. Louis and Chicago, but allegations of "irregularities" are already popping up around the country.

October 31, 2010      Permalink

THIS IS WHAT DEATH ROW MUST FEEL LIKE – AT 7:48 P.M. ET:  The thinking in political circles this Sunday night is that Democrats are in for unpleasantries on Tuesday.  And the pessimism seems to deepen with the hour.  From The Politico:

Now, for Democratic consultants and campaign officials who have plotted and strategized for months to preserve the embattled House majority, there’s nothing left to do but sit and wait for the expected horrors of Election Day to unfold.

There is nearly uniform consensus among Democratic campaign professionals that the House is gone — the only question, it seems, is how many seats they will lose.

While few will say so on the record for fear of alienating party officials or depressing turnout, every one of nearly a dozen Democratic House consultants and political strategists surveyed expect a GOP majority to be elected Tuesday — the consensus was that Democrats would lose somewhere between 50 and 60 seats.

A senior party consultant who was on the low end with his predictions said the party would lose between 40 and 50 seats. On the high end, one Democratic consultant said losses could number around 70 seats.

All spoke to the grimness of the mood.

And...

Already, the finger-pointing is beginning. With outside conservative groups pouring millions of dollars into races across the country, some operatives singled out liberal interest groups for not engaging in the election...

...But, most of the consultants said, much of the post-election scrutiny would surround President Barack Obama and a White House political operation that over the past two years struggled to sell an ambitious agenda that turned out to be radioactive to a wide swath of the electorate.

“Here’s the part of this that bothers me the most: This is not an embracing of Republicans. It’s a rejection of Democrats,” said Andrew Myers, a veteran Democratic pollster who worked on several House campaigns.

COMMENT:   What is remarkable is that the arrogance of the Democrats, the president in particular, seems to have gotten worse during the campaign.  The Dems seem to be saying, "Who are those peasants out there?  Who let them vote?  Who let them speak?"  Attitudes like that do not endear a party to the public.

October 31, 2010      Permalink

THIS IS REMARKABLE – AT 10:21 A.M. ET:  It's understandable that Republicans and many independents would be falling away from Obama.  But Democrats?  From the Washington Post:

Democratic voters are closely divided over whether President Obama should be challenged within the party for a second term in 2012, an Associated Press-Knowledge Networks Poll finds.

A real Democratic challenge to Obama seems unlikely at this stage, and his reelection bid is a long way off. But the findings underscore how disenchanted his party has grown heading into the congressional elections Tuesday.

The AP-KN poll has tracked a group of people and their views since the beginning of the 2008 presidential campaign. Among Democrats, 47 percent say Obama should be challenged for the 2012 nomination and 51 percent say he should not be opposed. Those favoring a contest include most who backed Hillary Rodham Clinton's unsuccessful faceoff against Obama for the 2008 nomination.

I hate to bring up an awkward subject, but I wonder how the poll breaks down racially.  It was recently noted that 91 percent of African Americans support Obama, contrasted with 37 percent of whites.  I wonder if a poll taken only of Democrats would reflect this division.  In other words, it's possible that a majority of white Democrats would favor a challenge to Obama, suggesting a potentially tense racial climate. 

Among all 2008 voters, 51 percent say he deserves to be defeated in November 2012 while 47 percent support his reelection - essentially a tie.

COMMENT:  Obviously, these figures can change dramatically by 2012, and may well change in the president's favor if the economy turns around.  But for president to suffer such disillusionment within his own party this soon into his presidency is something I haven't seen before.  Mr. Obama is in trouble.  He can't blame the public, although he will.  He needs help.

October 31, 2010      Permalink

MORE SERIOUS THAN WE'D THOUGHT – AT 10:13 A.M. ET:  More information on the latest airline bomb plot is being developed.  We knew it's serious.  Apparently, it's more serious than we'd thought, and more bombs may still be out there.  From London's Telegraph:

One of the two bombs mailed from Yemen and found on cargo jets in Dubai and Britain travelled on two passenger jets in the Middle East, according to a spokesman for Qatar Airways.

The airline spokesman said a package containing explosives hidden in a printer cartridge arrived in Qatar Airways' hub in Doha, on one of the carrier's flights from the Yemeni capital Sana'a.

It was then shipped on a separate Qatar Airways plane to Dubai in the United Arab Emirates, where it was discovered by authorities late early on Friday. A second, similar package turned up in England East Midlands Airport.

Barack Obama's counter-terrorism adviser said the parcel bombs had been made by the same person as the device worn by the so-called "underwear bomber" who botched an attack over Detroit on Christmas Day 2009.
"I think that the indications are right now based on forensic analysis that the individual responsible for putting these devices together is the same," John Brennan told ABC's "This Week" programme.

COMMENT:  Scary stuff.  And we still aren't sure what the full intent of the plotters was.  The British prime minister says the bombs were built to go off in the air while aircraft were over cities.  But the bombs discovered so far were destined for synagogues in Chicago. 

One thing is certain:  They'll try again.  Eventually they'll succeed. 

It's impossible to know if this latest plot, an extremely serious one, will have an effect on our election.  It may well have been timed to influence voters.  So far, there seems no detectable political impact.

October 31, 2010       Permalink

CALIFORNIA MIRACLE? – AT 9:59 A.M. ET:  Something may be happening in California, aside from Mel Gibson having run-ins with the cops. 

RealClearPolitics has moved the Barbara Boxer/Carly Fiorina Senate race from "leans Democratic" to "toss up."  This is the first change in RCP's Senate predictions in days.  Those predictions now have a Senate of 48 Democrats, 45 Republicans and 7 toss ups. 

Please note that only a third of the Senate is up for election or reelection.  That means the GOP must make all its gains in 33 races. 

We have not seen any new polls that might have prompted the RCP move.  They must have some internal information, but it would be great to see Carly Fiorina pull it out.  Barbara Boxer not only couldn't win any Miss Congeniality contest.  She'd have trouble with Miss Barely Acceptable. 

We'll follow this.

October 31, 2010     Permalink