Please note that you can leave a comment on any of our posts at our Facebook page.  Subscribers can also comment at length at our Angel's Corner Forum.

DECEMBER 19,  2010

CENSUS CONTAINS GRIM NEWS FOR DEMS – AT 7:51 P.M. ET:  We've had seemingly endless predictions in recent years that demographic trends were heading in the Democrats' direction.  Well, not so fast, you lefty statisticians!  The census will apparently contain good news for the right:

WASHINGTON (AP) — The 2010 census report coming out Tuesday will include a boatload of good political news for Republicans and grim data for Democrats hoping to re-elect President Barack Obama and rebound from last month's devastating elections.

The population continues to shift from Democratic-leaning Rust Belt states to Republican-leaning Sun Belt states, a trend the Census Bureau will detail in its once-a-decade report to the president. Political clout shifts, too, because the nation must reapportion the 435 House districts to make them roughly equal in population, based on the latest census figures.

The biggest gainer will be Texas, a GOP-dominated state expected to gain up to four new House seats, for a total of 36. The chief losers — New York and Ohio, each projected by nongovernment analysts to lose two seats — were carried by Obama in 2008 and are typical of states in the Northeast and Midwest that are declining in political influence.

Democrats' problems don't end there.

November's elections put Republicans in control of dozens of state legislatures and governorships, just as states prepare to redraw their congressional and legislative district maps. It's often a brutally partisan process, and Republicans' control in those states will enable them to create new districts to their liking.

The combination of population shifts and the recent election results could make Obama's re-election campaign more difficult. Each House seat represents an electoral vote in the presidential election process, giving more weight to states Obama probably will lose in 2012. The states he carried in 2008 are projected to lose, on balance, six electoral votes to states that his GOP challenger, Sen. John McCain of Arizona, won. That sets a higher bar for Obama before his re-election campaign even starts.

COMMENTS:  Sometimes we even get good political news. 

As a New Yorker, I can personally attest to what's happening here, at least in the areas outside Manhattan.  The state is falling apart, its taxes and cost-of-living driving out the most creative and dynamic people.  At the same time, the state faces a huge financial crisis as state employees retire to lavish, unfunded pensions.  New York's loss is the gain of many states, especially in the South and Southwest. 

Smug New Yorkers and Californians like to refer to the folks in the heartland as "the flyover people."  Well, my liberal New York and California friends, those are your people down there, in flyover country, looking for a better life.  Wave hello.

December 19, 2010      Permalink

RUBIO RATED TOP GOP COMMUNICATOR – AT 11:06 A.M. ET:   Earlier this week I suggested raising Marco Rubio, the new Republican senator from Florida, and everyone's candidate for vice president, to the presidential level, where his communications skills could give the GOP a presidential victory in 2012.  Now we have new ammunition.  From Newsmax: 

Marco Rubio, Haley Barbour, and Mike Huckabee are the Republicans most likely to defeat President Obama in 2012, according to a new analysis of their communications skills.

Former ABC and CNN journalist Brad Phillips — president of Phillips Media Relations, a media training firm — rated more than a dozen likely GOP candidates, plus Obama, on the seven traits he says all winning presidential candidates have had since 1980.

“Most pundits analyze a general election by looking at the same old measurements, such as unemployment data, consumer confidence, and early polling,” Phillips said.

“But they always miss a reliable predicator: The more gifted media spokesperson has won every presidential election since the beginning of the 24/7 media age in 1980.”

The candidates were evaluated on these seven criteria, Phillips said on his Mr. Media Training website:

The candidate with the clearest message has always won (since 1980).
The candidate who articulated the clearer vision has always won.
The sunnier candidate with the more optimistic message has always won.
The candidate whose message is best aligned with constituent concerns has always won.
The more charismatic candidate has always won.
The candidate who appeared most comfortable in his skin has always won.
The candidate who uses the most plain-spoken language has almost always won.
Based on these criteria and a review of television interviews, Phillips gives Obama an A for his communications skills in October 2008, but only a C for his skills now.

Incoming Florida Sen. Rubio gets an A, while Mississippi Gov. Barbour and former Arkansas Gov. Huckabee rate an A-minus.

COMMENT:  For the record, Phillips gave Mitt Romney, the man "next in line," a B-minus.

Rubio is a remarkable speaker.  As we wrote in our earlier post this week, he could lock up Florida and, being Hispanic himself, could cut into the traditionally Democratic Hispanic vote, which could make a decisive difference.

The name of the game is "win."   There is no prize for second place.  Rubio, in my view, could defeat Obama, who will be a formidable candidate, even if conditions in the country are less than ideal.  I don't think Romney could come close.  Huckabee and Barbour are good men, but I think they'd have a tough time climbing out of their regional base.  That's unfair, but it's the reality. 

Rubio.  Make a note.

December 19, 2010      Permalink

POSSIBLE SOLUTION TO GROUND ZERO MOSQUE ISSUE – AT 10:45 A.M. ET:  An idea is being floated that could possibly end the emotionally sizzling Ground Zero mosque controversy in New York City.  As you know, a Muslim group wants to put up a Muslim cultural center, including a mosque, within a block of Ground Zero, replacing a building that had been damaged in the 9-11 attacks.  Many, including family members of attack victims, object.

A solution may be coming.  From the New York Post:

A Manhattan lawyer with ties to the Saudi royal family is sounding out officials and community leaders about a plan to move the controversial Ground Zero mosque to the West Village.

Attorney Dudley Gaffin is claiming King Abdullah of Saudi Arabia might want to buy shuttered St. Vincent's Medical Center and transfer the mosque to a new Islamic cultural center he would build on a plot at the site, say sources who have heard Gaffin's pitch.

The king, worth more than $20 billion, would also save the hospital, reopening most of the units that closed when St. Vincent's filed for bankruptcy on April 14, the sources said.

They say that Gaffin, who heads his own firm in lower Manhattan, is floating the idea to gauge what the reaction might be -- and to ready a bid to rival the Rudin Organization, which is trying to snap up St. Vincent's in bankruptcy court with an eye on tearing down six hospital buildings for luxury housing.

COMMENT:  I'm always wary of Saudi influence, but at least some good would be done.  As long as hospital operations will not be influenced, in any way, by Saudi Arabia, this might be a way out of the mosque controversy, if not an ideal solution. 

Reopening St. Vincent's would help the area a lot more than another "luxury" apartment complex. 

December 19, 2010      Permalink

UNIVERSITIES RESPOND TO END OF "DON'T ASK, DON'T TELL" – AT 10:34 A.M. ET:  We wondered yesterday how universities that had used DADT as an excuse to bar ROTC on campus would respond to the DADT repeal.  We're getting some early answers.  From The Politico:

Some top universities moved quickly Saturday to respond to the vote repealing the ban on gays in the military, and those who don't restore their ROTC programs in the wake of the vote are likely to face immediate pressure on the issue.

The ROTC programs have been absent from a number of Ivy League and other leading campuses since the Vietnam War, and many schools subsequently linked programs' return to open service for gays and lesbians. The vote, said Columbia University President Lee Bollinger, provides "the opportunity for a new era in the relationship between universities and our military services."

"This is an historic development for a nation dedicated to fulfilling its core principle of equal rights. It also effectively ends what has been a vexing problem for higher education, including at Columbia -- given our desire to be open to our military, but not wanting to violate our own core principle against discrimination on the basis of sexual orientation," he said in a statement through a spokesman.

Harvard University President Drew Faust today signaled that she would move to restore ROTC to the campus.

"Because of today's action by the Senate, gay and lesbian Americans will now also have the right to pursue this honorable calling, and we as a nation will have the benefit of their service," she said in a statement through a spokesman. "I look forward to pursuing discussions with military officials and others to achieve Harvard's full and formal recognition of ROTC."

A spokesman for Yale University also suggested that change may be coming soon.

"We are aware of the vote and have plans in consideration," said Yale spokesman Thomas Mattia in an email.

COMMENT:  So far, so good.  Those are good statements.  But remember that universities are in the midst of their Christmas holidays.  Radical student groups are away, and no faculty meetings are being held.  We haven't heard from the campus left, which has great power.

Already there are rumblings with the word "delay" attached, from gay groups:

Some gay advocates, however, would prefer the schools wait until repeal has been fully implemented. Americablog's John Aravosis wrote that the schools should only let up "when the discharges stop and the ban is fully lifted."

Each university has its own set of rules, and some places may require faculty approval before ROTC is restored.  We'll see whether the positive opening statements chronicled above actually lead to action, or more obstruction.

December 19, 2010     Permalink

DECEMBER 18,  2010

CHAVEZ, THE NEW CASTRO – AT 8:25 P.M. ET:  One of the games played by Hugo Chavez's claque in the United States is that he was democratically elected.  Of course, so was Hitler, first time around. 

But the Chavez crowd insists that their guy and his policies reflect the will of the people.

Now, the "democracy" argument, like all the others in favor of Chavez, has gone out the window:

CARACAS, Dec 17 (Reuters) - Venezuela's parliament gave President Hugo Chavez decree powers for 18 months on Friday, outraging opposition parties that accused him of turning South America's biggest oil producer into a dictatorship.

The move consolidated the firebrand socialist leader's hold on power after nearly 12 years in office, and raised the prospect of a fresh wave of nationalizations as the former paratrooper seeks to entrench his self-styled "revolution."

Chavez had asked for the fast-track powers for one year, saying he needed them to deal with a national emergency caused by floods that drove nearly 140,000 people from their homes.

But the Assembly, which is dominated by loyalists from his Socialist Party, decided to extend them for a year and a half.

COMMENT:  Question for all the socialistas in the States who run down to Caracas regularly to kiss the ring of Hugo Chavez:  If the man is so popular, why does he have to rule by decree?

Of course, we've been asking that question of our local Castroites for half a century, without a coherent answer.

The totalitarian temptation is strong, and must always be resisted.  Sadly, the temptation often tempts self-professed "intellectuals," with tragic results.

December 18, 2010       Permalink

OVERTURNED – AT 6:45 P.M. ET:  Congress has completed action repealing "don't ask, don't tell," and sent the measure to the president for signature. 

From this point forward all American troops will be awakened in the morning by Judy Garland records. 

(If you don't understand that last line, send me an e-mail.)

December 18, 2010      Permalink

STAY HOME, ARNOLD – AT 10:32 A.M. ET:  What is it about public office that detaches people from reality?   From USA Today:

The Terminator goes to Washington? Outgoing California Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger says he would consider a post in the Obama administration.

Would the action movie star of The Terminator, Total Recall, True Lies and more recently, The Expendables, be willing to leave the West Coast for D.C.? Yes. Schwarzenegger tells the Los Angeles Times that he has the credentials to go to Washington and would like to work on public policy issues.

The bodybuilder-turned-actor-turned-politician says "with my celebrity power, and also my knowledge and experience," he believes can make an impact.

COMMENT:  Like the impact he made in California, which is on the verge of bankruptcy.

Look, maybe he can supervise an exercise class for liberals.  Or he can lift Nancy Pelosi with one hand and Harry Reid with the other.  Or, he can give dietary advice with the first lady.  The nation hungers for wheat germ.

Or, he can join the cabinet, and be the only one in the room without an accent. 

But Arnold, maybe it's best to go back to the movies.  In California these days, that's a higher reality than the state government.

December 18, 2010       Permalink

BLUNTNESS – AT 9:57 A.M. ET:  Admiral Mike Mullen, the chairman of the joint chiefs of staff, has been talking tough recently, first about the possibility of war on the Korean peninsula, and now about Iran.  It is a somewhat surprising turn, coming from a man who has traditionally been the consummate soldier-diplomat.  From Fox:

Iran is trying to build a nuclear bomb, posing a threat to its neighbors, and the United States is "very ready" to counter Iran should it make a move, the top U.S. military officer said Saturday.

Adm. Mike Mullen, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, reassured Persian Gulf nations nervous that an increasingly militarized government in Iran might try to start a war.

"The United States takes very seriously our security commitments in the Gulf region," Mullen said following a meeting with Bahrain's king. Bahrain, directly across the Gulf from Iran, is home to a large U.S. Navy base that would be on the front lines of any war with Iran.

"We're very ready," Mullen said, an unusually direct acknowledgment that the United States has contingency plans to counter Iran should it make a move. "There are real threats to peace and stability here, and we've made no secrets of our concerns about Iran."

Iran denies it is seeking a nuclear weapon, and denies U.S. claims that it sponsors terrorists. Iran has wary relations with many of its neighbors, who are trading partners with the oil giant but distrust the theocratic government.

COMMENT:  Well, how ready are we to counter Iran?  It is doubtful that Mullen would have spoken out without the approval of Secretary of Defense Robert Gates.  But does he have the approval of President Obama, who makes the final decisions? 

We don't know.  It may well be that the military feels more assertive in light of the recent election.  At least in the House, committee chairmen will be far more pro-military once the new Congress is sworn.

But Iran is signaling readiness for a new round of "talks," and the appeasement-minded Europeans are grabbing at the chance to delay any real action until these "talks" take place, as they've taken place for about seven years. 

The big political question is whether President Obama will move to the center.  We've seen a few signs of that, an echo of what Bill Clinton did after his party suffered staggering losses in the 1994 midterms.  But Obama isn't Clinton.  Obama is a true believer, a hardline liberal.  It will take more time, and more examples, to spot any real change in his approach, especially in matters like Iran and North Korea.

December 18, 2010      Permalink

OVERTURNED? – AT 9:37 A.M. ET:  There is a good chance that the Senate, following the House, will this weekend vote to overturn "don't ask, don't tell," and permit gays to serve openly in the military.  Republican opposition is fading, and at least four Republicans, including Scott Brown of Massachusetts, will go along with the overturn.

This would be a major victory for Mr. Obama, liberals, and the gay movement.

I must say that I've never given this issue much thought.  It is, of course, outrageous that the overturn might occur without a full, thoughtful Senate debate, but that's the way the liberal crowd does business.  The current Congress wants to slam through as much liberal legislation as possible before yielding to the new, much more conservative Congress that will be sworn in after the first of the year.  Who cares about election results or that "will of the people" stuff? 

There is, however, one clear benefit that I can see in the overturn:  It puts real heat on those "elite" colleges that have refused to bring ROTC back to their campuses, citing the "unfairness" of "don't ask, don't tell."  Two universities, in particular, Harvard and Columbia, have made it clear that the DADT rule was preventing them from having ROTC.  Well, if the rule is overturned, what will these places do?

I hate to sound cynical, but I'll make a semi-educated guess that these "top" colleges will do very little.  It is hard to exaggerate the cynicism of the far left, which has these places in a lock grip.  Oh yes, they'll acknowledge the end of "don't ask, don't tell," but I doubt if the welcome mat will be rolled out for the military.  I suspect the faculties will vote to "study" the issue...endlessly. 

Or, the campus trendies might invent still one more obstacle.  Now, what could that be?  Well, the Army pfc in custody for providing many of the classified documents to WikiLeaks is said to be gay.  His lawyers are already charging that he's being "abused," although they provide no evidence.  I could easily see a campus campaign on behalf of Private Manning, citing "abuse of a gay soldier."  Bring back ROTC with such a crisis underway?  Don't even think about it.

I hope I'm wrong.  I hope that, if the overturn occurs, these universities and colleges will honor their own argument and welcome the military to their campuses.  But I'll believe it only when I see it.

December 18, 2010     Permalink