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DECEMBER 9,  2010

BRINGS BACK MEMORIES, AND NOT GOOD ONES – AT 9:45 P.M. ET:   Hudson New York publishes a thorough article warning of a possible Iranian military move...in this hemisphere:

Iran is planning to place medium-range missiles on Venezuelan soil, based on western information sources, according to an article in the German daily, Die Welt, of November 25, 2010. According to the article, an agreement between the two countries was signed during the last visit of Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez to Tehran on October19, 2010. The previously undisclosed contract provides for the establishment of a jointly operated military base in Venezuela, and the joint development of ground-to-ground missiles.

At a moment when NATO members found an agreement, in the recent Lisbon summit (19-20 November 2010), to develop a Missile Defence capability to protect NATO's populations and territories in Europe against ballistic missile attacks from the East (namely, Iran), Iran's counter-move consists in establishing a strategic base in the South American continent - in the United States's soft underbelly.

According to Die Welt, Venezuela has agreed to allow Iran to establish a military base manned by Iranian missile officers, soldiers of the Iranian Revolutionary Guard and Venezuelan missile officers. In addition, Iran has given permission for the missiles to be used in case of an "emergency."

And...

The situation that is unfolding in Venezuela has some resemblance to the Cuba crisis of 1962. At that time, Cuba was acting on behalf of the USSR; now Venezuela is acting on behalf of Iran. At present, the geopolitical situation is very different: the world is no longer ruled by two superpowers; new nations, often with questionable leaders and the ambition of acquiring global status, are appearing on the international scene. Their danger to the free world will be greater if the process of nuclear proliferation is not stopped. Among the nations that aspire to become world powers, Iran has certainly the best capabilities of posing a challenge to the West.

Back in the 1962, thanks to the stern stance adopted by the then Kennedy administration, the crisis was defused

Nowadays, however, we do not see the same firmness from the present administration.

COMMENT:  No, I guess we don't.  The missiles scheduled to be placed in Venezuela, or upgrades of those missiles, are capable of reaching the United States.  Iran is developing the capacity to tip those missiles with nuclear weapons. 

So, the Iranian nuclear program may not be the only Iranian threat we have to worry about.  Iranian missiles, based in a hostile Latin American state, would be a grave danger to us. 

We have yet to hear an Obama administration response. 

December 9, 2010      Permalink

SNIPPET OF THE DAY – AT 8:20 P.M. ET:

From U.K.'s Guardian:  Russia has suggested that Julian Assange should be awarded the Nobel peace prize, in an unexpected show of support from Moscow for the jailed WikiLeaks founder.  In what appears to be a calculated dig at the US, the Kremlin urged non-governmental organisations to think seriously about "nominating Assange as a Nobel Prize laureate."

I happen to agree with the Kremlin.  Give Assange the Nobel Peace Prize, formerly awarded to such giants as Jimmah Carter, Al Gore, Barack Obama, and Yasir Arafat.  Giving it to Assange will kill the Nobel farce once and for all.

December 9, 2010      Permalink

CYBER-WAR – AT 9:34 A.M. ET:  Computer experts have predicted cyber-wars for years – conflicts in which major websites are hacked, or flooded, by competitors or aggressors.  The time has come.

In retaliation for the arrest of Wikileaks leader Julian Assange, his allies are assaulting "enemy" websites across the web.  The Wall Street Journal reports:

A growing list of organizations and individuals that have tangled with WikiLeaks and its detained founder, Julian Assange, have suffered online attacks, in what appears to be an effort by hackers bent on exacting revenge for the document-leaking website.

The attacks stepped up Wednesday, a day after Mr. Assange was arrested and denied bail in London in connection with sexual-misconduct accusations in Sweden. A range of organizations, including MasterCard Inc., Visa Inc., and the Swedish prosecutor's office, reported technical difficulties with their websites that appear to stem from so-called denial of service attacks, in which computers flood a server to prevent it from displaying a Web page.

The attacks in recent days have hit eBay Inc.'s PayPal as well as MasterCard, both of which have pulled services from WikiLeaks in recent days. Also affected: Swiss bank PostFinance. The unit of Swiss Post recently closed Mr. Assange's account, saying he provided a false address in Geneva, failing to meet the bank's requirement of Swiss residency for account holders. While the attacks caused some business disruption, they were mostly annoying rather than crippling.

And...

"http://www.mastercard.com/ is DOWN! #ddos #wikileaks Operation:Payback," said one post under the name "Anon_Operation," whose Twitter page is identified as part of Operation Payback, a campaign against "anti-piracy & anti-freedom entities."

Social network Facebook Inc. removed the "Operation Payback" page on its site late Wednesday after the group used the page to urge hackers to launch an unlawful denial of service attack.

COMMENT:  What is disturbing here is that an operation like WikiLeaks, which itself is small, can have sympathizers all over the world willing to use their computers to hurt "the enemy."  That makes every knowledgeable computer owner a potential soldier in a cyber war.  I'm afraid what Wiki and its friends are doing is just the beginning.  Computer security firms will probably get very rich on this. 

It makes us wonder, and worry, about how secure the U.S. Government's computer systems are.  The Pentagon is run by computers.  But how good are our systems, especially if confronted with an attack by another nation, not just a group?

Warfare always reinvents itself.

December 9, 2010      Permalink

ECONOMIC GRIMNESS – AT 9:01 A.M. ET:  There have been some very serious rumblings in the international economy over the last few days, and the media's concentration on events in Washington and in Wikiland have tended to downplay them.  But this is serious.  From London's Telegraph:

Agreement in Washington on a fresh fiscal package has set off dramatic rise in yields of US Treasuries and bonds across the world, threatening to short-circuit any benefits of stimulus. The bond rout raises concerns that the US authorities may be losing control over events...

...The Treasury sell-off has ricocheted through the global system, triggering bond sell-offs in Asia, Europe and Latin America. Japan's finance ministry braced as borrowing costs on seven-year debt jumped by a sixth in one trading session, while German Bunds punched through 3pc.

And...

David Bloom, currency chief at HSBC, said it is hard to disentangle whether investors are shunning bonds because they expect US stimulus to boost growth next year, or whether they are losing patience with profligacy in Washington.

"If this is all about growth, that's brilliant. But if yields are rising because people think America's fiscal situation is unsustainable, then its armaggedon," he said.

"The US can get away with this only because it is the world's reserve currency. This would be totally unacceptable in any other country. We think these problems will start to crystallise for the US in the second half of 2011, once the European debt crisis has stabilised," he said.

And...

Both Moody's and Fitch warned that the US must map out a credible strategy to control spending. "We have long-term concerns about the US rating outlook and they're not yet being addressed," said Stephen Hess, chief US analyst for Moody's.

COMMENT:  Money bills originate in the House of Representatives, which will soon be controlled, heavily, by the Republicans.  It's up to them to come up with a spending plan that will move domestic and foreign markets.  If the GOP goes back to business as usual, and that has often been its history, it will fail, and Obama will use that failure to win reelection in 2012. 

The loss of confidence in Washington is palpable throughout the world.  We have never been in quite this situation, and it's starting to affect our influence in foreign policy.  Other nations and blocs are increasingly ignoring us, and going their own way.  And President Obama seems little inclined to do much about it.

December 9, 2010      Permalink

QUOTE OF THE DAY – AT 8:49 A.M. ET:  From a well-reported and remarkably fair (surprise) portrait of Sarah Palin and her political operation, in TIME:

...Palin thinks Obama is vulnerable, and she implies that she is the one to take him on. "In battleground states, he's polling at 40% or below," she notes. "The country is rejecting his agenda ... My vision of America is diametrically opposed to his. He sees America as the problem. I see America as the solution." Asked what she makes of Obama's presidency thus far, Palin quipped, "Two words: Jimmy Carter." Asked who can beat him, she needed seven more: "Someone who can draw a sharp contrast."

COMMENT:  The Republican establishment is terrified of Sarah, terrified that she could enter the race and win the presidential nomination because of her powerful base, only to lose the general election.  In this case, the establishment has a strong argument.  Sarah's negatives are still staggeringly high, and the mainstream media does not take her seriously.  Her TV series about Alaska is declining in the ratings, and has apparently alienated as many people as it has attracted.

And yet, she is the most fascinating person in American politics.  Her future may well depend less on herself than on the state of the American economy in 2012.  If the economy is recovering, and Obama hasn't entirely surrendered the country overseas, I can't imagine Palin winning the general election.  But if the economy sinks further, and we are further humiliated in foreign policy, a daily occurrence now, she might actually have a shot.  Angry voters will always surprise us.

In the meantime, enjoy the show.  And she certainly knows how to put one on.

December 9, 2010      Permalink 

PRESIDENT MIKE? – AT 8:21 A.M. ET:  There is considerable speculation that three-term Mayor Mike Bloomberg of New York is readying a presidential run for 2012.  He could probably finance it himself.  From the New York Post:

Sounding more like a presidential candidate than the leader of the nation's biggest city, Mayor Bloomberg yesterday fired a political salvo at Washington politicians -- of both parties -- for making "a mess of our country."

In his most strident tone yet, Bloomberg delivered what could have been confused with a campaign stump speech before the city's business leaders by blasting federal lawmakers for letting political squabbles stifle economic growth -- in contrast to what's happened in New York City...

...The mayor invoked many of the themes he had sounded while testing the presidential waters in 2007: that "common-sense solutions" trump ideology; that both major political parties "follow the mood of the moment -- instead of leading from the front"; and that the American people are getting fed up with "political pandering," "legislative influence peddling" and constant infighting...

...The mayor took an indirect swipe at the White House by saying that very little of the federal stimulus spending or the health-care reform package promoted innovation.

"And the Obama administration will have to be very careful to make sure that the financial-services bill this year doesn't hinder innovation," the mayor added.

For many in the audience, there was only one take-away: Bloomberg is running for president, seriously considering running, or trying to make it look like he's running.

COMMENT:  With his vast resources, Bloomberg can have an impact.  I doubt if he could be elected.  The main question might turn out to be:  Which other candidate, Democrat or Republican, will he hurt the most?

In 1992, the eccentric Ross Perot, running as a third-party candidate, denied George H.W. Bush a second term.  Clinton was elected, but didn't come close to 50 percent of the vote.

Bloomberg is an unexciting candidate, and often comes off as not quite in tune with actual humans – as when he said that those who opposed the mosque at Ground Zero should be ashamed of themselves.

Like Obama, Bloomberg believes he walks on water.  And he, too, sinks.

December 9, 2010    Permalink

DECEMBER 8,  2010

OPTIMISM ON TAX COMPROMISE – AT 9:39 P.M. ET:  Despite deep angst among liberal Dems that their souls have been violated, predictions are positive that the tax compromise agreed to by Republicans and President Obama will make it through Congress.   From The Politico:

A wave of new Democratic support Wednesday signaled that President Barack Obama’s deal to renew the Bush tax cuts would make it through Congress, as long as most Republicans lined up behind it as expected.

With Democrats in both chambers still angry about parts of the package, the administration scrambled to allay concerns and build momentum for the unusual deal with congressional Republicans reached this week. By the end of the day, the measure looked increasingly likely to pass, as Democrats stepped forward one by one to back it.

Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid (D-Nev.) announced that he hopes to begin consideration of the bill as early as Thursday — a sign that the measure will receive a filibuster-proof majority.

And in the House, high-decibel liberal complaints were countered by a silent minority of Blue Dogs, New Democrats and even a handful of veteran liberals who said outright that they would vote for the bill or hinted strongly in private that they were leaning in that direction.

The one trump card for liberals is House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.), who could follow the will of the majority of her caucus and keep the bill off the floor. There was no sign Wednesday that she would use that authority, and lawmakers and aides said that this reality was beginning to set in with the caucus and that anger was turning to acceptance in some corners.

COMMENT:  Now we await liberal Democratic acceptance of the results of the 2000 election. 

And it is true that a majority of the liberal caucus wants to keep the tax bill from ever coming to the floor.  But they must surely understand that such a move would occur only after a storming of the parliament buildings by the proletariat, the Leninist factions, and the Modern Languages Association.

December 8, 2010      Permalink

MORE RESULTS FROM THE MADNESS PATROL – AT 9:06 P.M. ET:  Remember the days when Sergeant York was a hero?  John McCain?  The astronauts?  The Marines at Iwo Jima?

Well, I guess definitions of words are a bit different out in lala land.  From The Washington Examiner:

America's nuttiest city is at it again:

The Berkeley City Council will consider a resolution that would declare the Army private suspected of leaking classified information to WikiLeaks a hero and call for his release.

The council plans a vote Tuesday on the resolution in support of Pfc. Bradley Manning, who is being held in a military brig in Virginia. A city commission already has approved it.

Bob Meola, who authored the resolution, tells the San Francisco Chronicle that Manning is a patriot who deserves a medal.

COMMENT:  A medal?  A MEDAL?  Now, just what would this medal be?  What would the citation say?  "For conspicuous treachery in the face of a computer"?

Who would award the medal?  I know.  The publisher of The New York Times would award it "on behalf of a grateful nation."  The nation, of course, would be Iran, or maybe North Korea. 

And I could easily see the statue of Manning in Berkeley's Red Square, or Town Square, or whatever they call it.  This American hero, with laptop, grinning.  Berkeley citizens can come by and give marijuana offerings.

Yuch.

December 8, 2010      Permalink

BULLETIN:  THE FATE OF THE NATION IS INVOLVED – AT 9:27 A.M. ET:  This just in, from The Politico:

Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid is trying to use the tax cut package President Barack Obama brokered with Republicans to legalize online poker, POLITICO has learned — a move that could further complicate the deal Obama announced Monday.

Already, the online poker proposal has exposed the Nevada Democrat to charges of flip-flopping on a controversial issue, as well as using his Senate leadership position to repay big casino interests that helped him win reelection in a hard-fought campaign against Republican Sharron Angle last month.

What?  Reward the casinos?  Why, I never heard...

Reid, who has previously opposed online gambling, declined to comment Monday through a spokesman.

But Sen. Orrin Hatch (R-Utah), as well as several senior congressional sources and gambling lobbyists, confirmed that Reid and his staff have reached out to other Senate offices to try to build support for adding the online poker legislation — a draft of which POLITICO has obtained — to a measure extending the Bush-era tax cuts.

"They're trying," said Hatch, who next year will become ranking Republican on the Senate Finance Committee, which has jurisdiction over parts of the gambling measure. "Sen. Reid would like to do that."

COMMENT:  It is moving to see our esteemed leaders involved in grave matters of state.  Online poker is desperately needed to save the national soul.  Without it, what are we?  What do we have?  Baseball?  The Super Bowl?  The NBA?

It is obvious that a real national need has been identified by the senator from Las Vegas.

I've never played poker.  Is it fun?

December 8, 2010        Permalink

GOOD FOR THE PARENTS! – AT 9:07 A.M. ET:  I want to call your attention to a well reported story in The New York Times about a parents' revolt in Compton, California, a predominantly African-American community.

COMPTON, Calif. — By Marlene Romero’s count, her son has had just one effective teacher in his five years at McKinley Elementary School here. Most of the time, she said, he has merely shuffled through classrooms, struggling in math without ever getting extra help.

So when an organizer came knocking at her door promising that if she signed a petition, her son’s school could radically improve, Ms. Romero immediately pledged her support.

Now, she is one of more than 250 parents in Compton who are using a new state law to force the failing school to be taken over by a charter school operator, the first such move in the country.

Voicing enormous frustration with the existing school, the parents handed over the petition on Tuesday to district officials. “We are completely fed up,” Ms. Romero said. “We’ve been told to wait every year and nothing changes.”

When Ms. Romero attended Compton schools in the 1990s, she said, nobody seemed to notice or care when she skipped school for days at a time. She dropped out at the age of 16. “I want my children to be able to have what I didn’t,” she said.

For the last several months, Ms. Romero has helped gather petitions for the school takeover, which is expected to face legal challenges from the school board and teachers’ union, which strongly opposed the new law.

The usual suspects are on the other side:

Under the law, if 51 percent of parents at a school sign a petition, it “triggers” one of four actions, including takeover by a charter school. In this case, 61 percent of the parents signed the petition. When the State Legislature approved the measure in January, union officials referred to it as a “lynch mob provision.”

The move in Compton will likely be watched by educators and political leaders all over the country, as many advocates try to exert more pressure on teachers’ unions. Education Secretary Arne Duncan is supporting the effort and Rahm Emanuel has promised to introduce similar regulations in Chicago if he wins his bid for mayor there.

COMMENT:  There is a sign outside most American schools.  It says "public school" or something like it.  Tax-supported schools are owned by the public, not by "educators" or unions, or school boards, or anyone else.

It is inspiring to see what Ms. Romero and her fellow citizens are doing.  Many of our schools must be taken back from the "professionals" and local patronage-seeking politicians who have run them into the ground.

Obviously, this has to be done with some care.  Too often we see that "reform" groups are as bad as those they seek to replace.  But the California law is a good one, and allows parents to stir the pot. 

As the story reports, the Compton case is the first in the nation.  We'll follow it, and expect that other communities will see similar action.

And, by the way, do you know what your kids are being taught in school?  It's not a bad idea to leaf through their books.  You may get a jolt.

December 8, 2010       Permalink

THE GUN IS STARTING TO SMOKE – AT 8:52 A.M. ET:  The Scotsman, obviously published in Scotland, is a spirited newspaper that often breaks major stories, or at least identifies them.  It has picked up the story of an Iranian defector who confirms what we have suspected for years:

A FORMER Iranian diplomat who defected to the West this year has described how he saw North Korean technicians repeatedly travel to Iran, which western officials fear is trying to develop nuclear weapons.

Mohammad Reza Heydari, who resigned in January as the Iranian consul in Norway, said he was "certain" the co-operation was continuing between his country and North Korea.

His comments, at a Paris think-tank conference, come amid rising international concerns that North Korea, which has already staged atomic tests, is helping Iran with its nuclear programme.

Mr Heydari said that from 2002 to 2007, when he headed the Iranian foreign ministry's office with responsibility for airports, he saw many technicians from North Korea travel to Iran.

"I witnessed repeated round-trips of North Korean specialists and technicians - given that I was right there at the border - who came to collaborate on the Iranian nuclear programme," he said through a translator.

COMMENT:  And yet, nothing really has been done.  We continue to "engage" with North Korea, year after year, as that rogue nation develops nuclear weapons and shares technology with delights such as Iran. 

Nuclear proliferation is the single greatest problem facing civilization in the foreseeable future.  We can handle just about everything else.  But two nuclear weapons set off in, say, New York and Washington, would kill a ghastly number of Americans and probably wreck the American economy, as well as cutting off the head of the U.S. government.

Nuclear weapons do exactly what they're designed to do.  They do not require careful aim.  And nonsense about "crude nuclear devices" is simply an illusion.  A "crude" device explodes with the same force as a sophisticated one. 

We always look at defector reports with some skepticism.  Defectors often tell us what they think we want to hear, the better to get an enhanced deal.  But this defector is confirming what others have reported, and his report appears genuine and well documented.

We have gotten nowhere with Iran.  New "talks" are scheduled with Tehran for January.  They will also get nowhere.

Condi Rice, as secretary of state, was ridiculed for warning of a "mushroom cloud over Atlanta."  She was right.  Those who laughed were wrong.

December 8, 2010      Permalink

NOT EXACTLY CHURCHILLIAN – AT 8:35 A.M. ET:  The ethical question arises:  Should we use material from WikiLeaks, knowing that it has been illegally obtained, and that some of it is damaging to the United States?

The answer, it seems to me, is that material should be used, on a very limited and careful basis, if it helps to illuminate a situation, and perhaps prevent a further tragedy.  But we are looking at the revelations on a case by case basis, while still deeply opposing what WikiLeaks did, and urging prosecution of those involved.

The legal expression is "fruit of the poisonous tree."  Evidence presented in an American legal case is often thrown out if it was illegally obtained, if it was the "fruit of the poisonous tree."  Many judicial scholars, including the late Supreme Court Justice Benjamin Cardozo, were skeptical of the concept, wondering why justice should be denied, say, the victim of a crime, because the constable made a mistake. 

WikiLeaks is the poisonous tree.  But there may be circumstances where exposing the poison may do some good.  One such case arises this morning, as reported by Fox News:

The British government feared a furious Libyan reaction if the convicted Lockerbie bomber wasn't set free and expressed relief when they learned that he would be released on compassionate grounds, leaked U.S. diplomatic cables show.

A cache of cables from the U.S. Embassy in Tripoli describes the run-up to the decision to free Abdel Baset Ali al-Megrahi, a former Libyan agent whose freedom on Aug. 20, 2009, sparked jubilation in Libya but roiled relations between London and Washington.

Critics of the decision on both sides of the Atlantic have alleged that British officials were motivated by commercial interests -- including those of energy company BP PLC -- when they moved to free al-Megrahi, the only man convicted in the 1988 attack on Pan Am Flight 103.

While officials here have always stressed that the 58-year-old al-Megrahi was released because he suffers from terminal prostate cancer, the cables show the Brits were keenly aware that they faced a hugely damaging backlash if they didn't do as the Libyans wanted.

COMMENT:  I can't imagine Churchill just caving like that.  The revelations are frightening for they expose the chronic tendency of some in the UK and Europe to think like diplomats of the 1930s, making one more concession just to get by. 

We recently learned, again from these leaked cables, that Washington is having a terrible time getting Mideast countries to stop funding terrorists.  Again, the terrorists practice terror – no doubt threatening governments if they don't write the checks, or look the other way while others write them.

Our struggle against terror is fragile, and will go on for decades.  We fought a Cold War for decades, and came out victorious.  This struggle, against an extremist enemy, may be more difficult, especially as terror groups begin to acquire weapons of mass destruction.

Actions like releasing the Lockerbie bomber only give aid and comfort to our enemies.

December 8, 2010     Permalink