POLITICAL CHAOS – AT 10:03 A.M. ET:  The disgraceful press bias that I see every day makes it difficult to assess exactly where the presidential race is. 

The mainstreamers are establishing a common narrative – that Romney is essentially toast and that all that remains is the counting.  The worst offenders are the usual ones – The New York Times, the Washington Post, NPR, and CNN, whose Soledad O'Brien clearly needs time in a rest home. 

No doubt Romney is running a sub-par campaign, and no doubt his gaffes have hurt him.  Heavyweight Republicans are making clear their displeasure.  But the strangest thing is happening.  He is actually gaining in the polls.  The Obama convention bounce is gone, and I'm guessing that Obama's own behavior – like going to a Las Vegas fundraiser in the midst of the Mideast crisis, and appearing on Letterman while the economy burns – is having its own effect, unnoticed by his media footmen. 

Consider today's Rasmussen report:

The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Wednesday shows Mitt Romney attracting support from 47% of voters nationwide, while President Obama earns 46% of the vote. Three percent (3%) prefer some other candidate, and four percent (4%) are undecided. See daily tracking history.

When “leaners” are included, the race is tied with both Obama and Romney at 48%.

Not great, but not catastrophic for a guy whose political obituary has already been written.

The Swing State Daily Tracking Survey shows the race remains close in the battlegrounds.

And this may be the key point in analyzing why the race is so close:

But 55% of voters nationally who are not affiliated with either of the major political parties still consider the choice between Romney and the president as voting for the lesser of two evils.

I get that feeling as well.  I'm convinced that most of the Romney vote is an anti-Obama vote.  Let's face it:  There's no great yearning for Mitt.  In 2008 Obama had the Obama girl.  In 2012 Romney has the Romney shareholder, but it doesn't quite have the same pizzaz.   

A president’s job approval rating is one of the best indicators for assessing his chances of reelection. Typically, the president’s job approval rating on Election Day will be close to the share of the vote he receives. Currently, 49% of voters say they at least somewhat approve of the president's job performance. Fifty percent (50%) at least somewhat disapprove.

COMMENT:  A president is believed to be in trouble if his approval falls below 50%.  Obama's, these days, is usually in the high forties.

It would be nice, of course, if Romney woke up, appeared presidential occasionally, and spoke above the press to the American people.  We're being told that a Romney campaign avalanche is coming.  It's none too soon.

September 19, 2012