WHERE OBAMA STANDS – AT 10:44 A.M. ET:  Today's Rasmussen poll brings mixed results.  Our side has been looking at the Rasmussen survey as proof that Romney is actually doing pretty well, despite the recent onslaught from the press and the Democrats.  Romney, yesterday, was up by three at Rasmussen.  A bit different today.

The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Saturday shows Mitt Romney attracting support from 48% of voters nationwide, while President Obama earns 46% of the vote. Two percent (2%) prefer some other candidate, and four percent (4%) are undecided. See daily tracking history.

When “leaners” are included, the race is tied at 48%. Leaners are those who are initially uncommitted to the two leading candidates but lean towards one of them when asked a follow-up question.

That last point is disturbing.  Leaners usually lean toward Romney in the Rasmussen poll.  What we may be seeing is the "rally 'round the flag" effect of an international crisis.

In swing states, recently the subject of much Obama celebration, Ras is more cautious:

In Virginia and Ohio, Obama leads by a point. In Florida, the president is up two. Romney has edged back into the lead in Missouri and is up six in North Carolina.

Those leads in Virginia, Ohio and Florida, are far less than those reported in more Obama-friendly polls.  These states are winnable.

But the bottom line is that Romney isn't doing all that well.  He just doesn't connect in an exciting way with voters.  It looks like Ryan has disappeared.  He hasn't, of course, but the blatant press bias has made him a nonentity.

There's this:

A president’s job approval rating is one of the best indicators for assessing his chances of reelection. Typically, the president’s job approval rating on Election Day will be close to the share of the vote he receives. Currently, 49% of voters say they at least somewhat approve of the president's job performance. Fifty percent (50%) at least somewhat disapprove.

That's good news for us.  Rasmussen had Obama in the plus column on approval for a time.  Now that is reversing. 

If the election were held today, it would be very, very close.  The election isn't being held today.

September 15,  2012