OBAMA BOUNCE HAS BOUNCED – AT 9:51 A.M. ET: Rasmussen has just published his daily tracker, confirming that the Obama convention bounce has all but disappeared.
The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Wednesday shows President Obama attracting support from 46% of voters nationwide, while Mitt Romney earns 45% of the vote. Four percent (4%) prefer some other candidate, and five percent (5%) are undecided.
The president received a modest convention bounce, but that's now gone. On the day the conventions began, Obama was up by two points. Now the numbers are essentially back to that starting point with the president leading by a point. See daily tracking history.
When “leaners” are included, it’s Romney 48% and Obama 47%. Leaners are those who initially indicate no preference for either candidate but express a preference for one of them in a follow-up question.
Of course, this polling took place before the Mideast crisis erupted. It's impossible to know whether that will help or hurt Obama.
The president leads by one in our daily Swing State tracking. All 11 swing states were won by President Obama in 2008.
A president’s job approval rating is one of the best indicators for assessing his chances of reelection. Typically, the president’s job approval rating on Election Day will be close to the share of the vote he receives. Currently, 51% of voters say they at least somewhat approve of the president's job performance. That's down a point from yesterday’s total which marked Obama's highest approval rating since January 2011.
Forty-eight percent (48%) at least somewhat disapprove.
COMMENT: If Rasmussen is right, the race is tightening once more, with the trend slightly toward Romney. This poll will have to be confirmed by others, but I think the others will show, roughly, the same trend.
But we're pretty much back where we were several weeks ago. It is a tight race, with a full two months to go before election day. The Mideast crisis shows how quickly events can change, and affect how people decide.
September 12, 2012