BULLETIN – BOUNCE? – AT 9:34 A.M. ET: Regular Angel's Corner contributor and distinguished author Will Stroock alerts us to the new ABC News/Washington Post poll, which casts doubt on the bounce Obama has presumably received from his convention:
Last week’s Democratic National Convention helped President Obama improve his standing against Republican Mitt Romney, according to a new Washington Post-ABC News poll, but did little to reduce voter concern about his handling of the economy.
The survey shows that the race remains close among likely voters, with Obama at 49 percent and Romney at 48 percent, virtually unchanged from a poll taken just before the conventions.
But naturally there's this:
But among a wider sample of all registered voters, Obama holds an apparent edge, topping Romney at 50 percent to 44 percent, and has clear advantages on important issues in the campaign when compared with his rival.
It's the likely voters who count.
And this is strange: We learn, in a separate story, that those polled break down this way: Democrats 33%, Republicans 23%, and independents 37%. So it's Democrats with a ten-point advantage here? Are we serious?
SECOND BULLETIN – BOUNCE FADING – As we were doing this story, Rasmussen posted this morning tracking poll numbers, and they show Obama's bounce starting to fade. Yesterday Rasmussen had Obama up five. Today he has him up three:
The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Tuesday shows President Obama attracting support from 48% of voters nationwide, while Mitt Romney earns 45% of the vote. Three percent (3%) prefer some other candidate, and four percent (4%) are undecided.
Today’s data suggests that the president’s convention bounce has started to fade. When “leaners” are included, it’s Obama 49% and Romney 47%. Leaners are those who initially indicate no preference for either candidate but express a preference for one of them in a follow-up question.
Now we're getting somewhere.
The president leads by two in our daily Swing State tracking. All 11 swing states were won by President Obama in 2008.
But consider this:
A president’s job approval rating is one of the best indicators for assessing his chances of reelection. Typically, the president’s job approval rating on Election Day will be close to the share of the vote he receives. Currently, 52% of voters say they at least somewhat approve of the president's job performance. That matches yesterday’s total as his highest approval rating in more than a year-and-a-half, since January 2011.
Forty-seven percent (47%) at least somewhat disapprove.
COMMENT: The bounce is weakening, but there's a huge amount of work to be done. Obama has reversed his negative approval ratings, and Rasmussen also reports that the generic congressional ballot now favors the Democrats by a narrow margin, the first time since January that the Dems have led.
The combat is just beginning.
September 11, 2012