BOUNCE DETECTED – AT 10:42 A.M. ET:  Rasmussen is detecting a bounce for Romney from the GOP convention.  We caution that there may be a bounce the other way when the media-loving Dems meet in Charlotte this week:

The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Saturday shows Mitt Romney attracting support from 47% of voters nationwide, while President Obama earns 44% of the vote. Four percent (4%) prefer some other candidate, and six percent (6%) are undecided.

As expected, Romney is enjoying a modest bounce from the past week's Republican National Convention. He trailed the president by two when the convention began and is up by three today.

It will take a few more days to fully measure the bounce. This update is based on nightly interviews and reported on a three-day rolling average basis. As a result, roughly two-thirds of the interviews were conducted before Romney’s speech to the convention Thursday night. Next week is Obama’s convention which should produce its own bounce. Barring something unusual next week in Charlotte, we won’t really know which convention produced the bigger bounce until about a week after the Democratic National Convention.

And...Rasmussen is reporting that the "swing" states in this election are tied, 45-45%.  The states Rasmussen cites are Colorado, Florida, Iowa, Michigan, Nevada, New Hampshire, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia and Wisconsin.

What is striking is that Obama can't get out of the mid-forties in most polls.  If that trend continues, the undecideds will decide the election, and undecideds usually break heavily for the challenger.  Romney might just pull this out.

While we expect a Democratic bounce from Charlotte, that is not guaranteed.  I think much will depend on the tone of the convention.  The Democratic Party has, in recent years, been angry and reckless, and dominated by groups that tend to mouth off easily.  Phrases like "the Republican war on women," or the endless pandering to ethnic groups, are indicative.  The broadcast mouthpiece for the Dems, MSNBC, is becoming famous for crudeness. 

What can save the Dems is the Obama-adoring media.  We'll be watching them this week.

September 1,  2012