William Katz:  Urgent Agenda

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SHORT TAKES ON THE DRIFTING WRECKAGE – AT 7:55 P.M. ET:

HYPOCRISY – While tut-tutting about politicizing the hurricane, the liberal media is going all out to help Obama and hurt Romney while the storm is on the front page.  Latest gimmick:  CNN ran a graphic under a story about Romney stating that Romney, in 2011, called for a cut in FEMA funds.  In context, Romney was actually calling for more funds to go to state disaster agencies.  Tomorrow Obama will tour damaged areas with Republican Governor Chris Christie of New Jersey, who will be forced by custom and graciousness to compliment Obama for coming.  That clip, you may be sure, will run on every mainstream TV network.  The Obamans won't even have to buy time.

REVERSAL OF FORTUNE – We reported this morning on a Boston Globe poll showing Scott Brown two points ahead of Elizabeth Warren in the boutique Senate race of the year, in Massachusetts.  Sadly, a Suffolk University poll published later in the day showed Warren seven points up.  Rasmussen has her five points up.  Warren is being fueled by vast sums of money contributed from around the country.  She is seen as the symbol of the left wing of the Democratic Party, the new queen of the "weren't the sixties great" crowd.

TOUGH ONES – Republicans were "supposed" to make great gains in the Senate this year, but the going has gotten very rough, and there is real worry at this point.  Olympia Snowe, a sure re-elect, retired in Maine, and the GOP candidate is losing badly; Scott Brown, as noted, is in trouble in Massachusetts; two easy wins, Missouri and Indiana, have been placed in jeopardy by goofball comments by inadequate candidates; an easy pickup in Montana is jeopardized by a third-party "libertarian" who's actually being financed by Democrats; and in Nebraska, where a Republican pickup was considered certain, former governor and senator (and Medal of Honor recipient) Bob Kerrey, who hasn't lived in the state for ten years, is gaining rapidly on GOP nominee Deb Fischer.  One commentator on Fox tonight said that if Republicans badly stumble in Senate races, the party will have to seriously examine its primary procedures, which have yielded too many weak, ideological candidates with little appeal to the center.

AND NOW THE GOOD NEWS – I haven't seen too many numbers indicating the race is moving in Obama's direction.  By contrast, the great majority of statistics look better for Mitt Romney.  We stress that this doesn't guarantee victory.  Movement is not the same as majority.  But states previously considered in the bag for Obama are now considered by many observers as "in play," and Romney will be spending money in those states in the final campaign week.  They include Michigan, Minnesota, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania, although that last one looks tough.  Ohio is now very competitive, and dead even in some polls.  We interpret "dead even" as favoring Romney because of the intensity of Republican determination this year.  Also, it appears that Democrats pushed their most zealous supporters to vote early to try to drum up buzz of a Dem victory, but Romney still came out leading among early voters.  Republicans are counting on their largest contingent of truly committed voters to produce a GOP "tsunami" on election day. 

October 30, 2012