OHIO – AT 11:53 A.M. ET:  Both sides are fighting for Ohio, with its 18 electoral votes.  Romney could still win the election without Ohio, but it would require a unique patching together of other swing states.  With Ohio, he will sleep more soundly.  So how goes Ohio?  Very close, but there is room for optimism.  From Fox:

A late surge by Mitt Romney has made the contest between him and President Obama to win Ohio too close to call, according to a poll released Sunday.

Romney and Obama are tied at 49 percent among likely voters, according to an Ohio News Organization poll. The margin of error in the poll is 3.1 percentage points.

The biggest movement since the group’s poll in September is Romney's lead with male voters -- from 1 percentage point to 12 points.

The president held 51 percent of the vote in the September poll.

“Momentum is on our side,” Ohio Republican Sen. Rob Portman said on “Fox News Sunday.” “Energy and enthusiasm is on our side.”

And...

An averaging of polls Sunday by the website RealClearPolitics has Obama leading by 1.9 percent.
The Ohio newspaper poll used landlines and cellphones to reach 1,015 likely voters across the state from Oct. 18 through 23.

COMMENT:  The operative word is "momentum."  Romney's momentum started after his superb performance in the first debate.  But it has slowed somewhat, thanks in part to Obama's improved debate showing in the final two debates.  The issue is how much momentum Romney has left.  Also, will there be some surprise, or disruption, in the next week that can change the outcome of the race?

Ohio is winnable.  My own sense is that a tie means a Romney win, if the vote count is honest, because the Romney forces clearly have greater energy and motivation. 

Also take a close look at Iowa, Wisconsin and New Hampshire this week.  They are also winnable, and all three are very close.  Further, we've been assuming that Virginia and Florida, two must-wins for Romney, are pretty much won.  Don't assume it.  Both states are polling very close.

I see a long election night coming up.  And if the count is razor-thin in some states, we could be in for 2000-style recount. 

Buy snacks now. 

October 28, 2012