ELECTION RACE STATUS – AT 10:48 A.M. ET:  There is no question but that virtually all attention is being turned to the Electoral College.  The national popular vote statistics are interesting and entertaining, but are fading in importance.  Thoughtful commentators are increasingly noting that Romney can win the popular vote, but may lose in the Electoral College, where the election is actually decided. 

From today's Rasmussen report:

The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Saturday shows Mitt Romney attracting support from 50% of voters nationwide, while President Obama earns the vote from 46%. Two percent (1%) prefer some other candidate, and another two percent (2%) are undecided. This is the fifth consecutive day that Romney has been at the 50% level of support. He has enjoyed a three- or four-point edge on each of those days.

But...

Romney is up two in Florida, moving that state back into the Toss-Up column. The Rasmussen Reports Electoral College projections now show the president with 237 Electoral Votes and Romney 206. The magic number needed to win the White House is 270. Eight states with 95 Electoral College votes remain Toss-ups. In addition to Florida, the battleground states are Colorado, Iowa, Nevada, New Hampshire, Ohio, Virginia, and Wisconsin.

COMMENT:  That marks an Electoral College drop of 29 votes from yesterday's Rasmussen report, attributable to Florida, with 29 electoral votes, slipping back into "toss-up."  That doesn't mean, of course, that Romney will lose Florida.  It just means that, in Rasmussen's survey, Florida is now closer than before.

We now watch the Electoral College maps closely.  RealClearPolitics (RCP) rates the race as 201 for Obama, 191 for Romney, with 146 toss-ups.  Without toss-ups, but including "leaners," the race is 290 Obama (enough to win), 248 Romney.  But that RCP map is a bit generous toward Obama.

Verdict:  The Electoral College race is too close to call, and anything can happen.

October 27,  2012