ROMNEY HOLDING, INCREASING SLIGHTLY – AT 10:32 A.M. ET:  Rasmussen reports the race this morning at 49-47, in favor of Romney, a one-point gain since yesterday.  The point is insignificant given the margin of error, but the key takeaway in all polls we've seen is that Obama gained nothing from his "victory" in the second debate, which means people are making up their minds, and not in his favor.

The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Sunday shows Mitt Romney attracting support from 49% of voters nationwide, while President Obama earns the vote from 47%. One percent (1%) prefers some other candidate, and two percent (2%) are undecided.

These numbers are unchanged from the morning of the second presidential debate. They suggest that the president’s stronger performance in that debate stopped his slide in the polls but did not regain lost ground. The first debate had a bigger impact, changing the race from a two-point Obama advantage to a two-point Romney edge. Still, the race remains too close to call with just over two weeks to go.

And...

The final presidential debate of this season is scheduled for Monday night and will focus on foreign policy. Obama has consistently earned higher ratings on foreign policy than on the economy. Currently, 46% say he’s doing a good or an excellent job on foreign policy while 39% rate his performance in this area as poor.

As for the situation in Libya, 35% think the administration is doing a good job. That’s down nine points from a month ago.

COMMENT:  Obama's numerical advantage in foreign policy is not enough to make a significant difference.  First, foreign policy won't determine this election.  The economy will weigh more heavily.  Second, the Libya debacle may shake some of Obama's support in foreign policy, especially if Romney does well in the debate tomorrow night.

Rasmussen's cautiousness, an attribute in this business, shows in his careful presentation of his results.  "Too close to call" is the operative phrase.  Some Republicans are growing overconfident about Romney's rise.  But I gently point out that if you're ten points behind and pick up eight points by election day, the election result remains the same.  It isn't the rise that counts.  What counts is who has the most votes at the ballot box. 

Romney must run as if he's 20 points behind.  The possibility of a popular-vote victory and electoral-vote loss is there.  From this point forward we should be concentrating entirely on the states.  The latest polls in the key state of Ohio show essentially a dead heat.  I believe that a dead heat favors Romney because our side is more energized, and the other side less energized, than in 2008.  There will be a flurry of state polls this week.  The RealClearPolitics electoral vote count remains Romney 206, Obama 201, with 131 tossups.

October 21,  2012