WHERE THE RACE STANDS – AT 10:19 A.M. ET: Scott Rasmussen has just published his first tracker in which all the replies came after the last presidential debate. The verdict: The debate made no difference. People are starting to make up their minds.
The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Saturday shows Mitt Romney attracting support from 49% of voters nationwide, while President Obama earns the vote from 48%. One percent (1%) prefers some other candidate, and three percent (3%) are undecided. See daily tracking history.
These updates are based upon nightly polling and reported on a three-day rolling average basis. As a result, today’s update is the first based entirely upon interviews conducted after the second debate. Before the first presidential debate, Obama was up by two, 49% to 47%. Following that debate, Romney was up 49% to 47%. Now it’s a one-point race with two days to go before the final debate. Romney leads by six among unaffiliated voters.
Because of methodology, Rasmussen's poll results swing less wildly than those of other surveys. Some people claim that Scott is a "Republican" pollster, but he plays it straight. The Gallup poll had Romney up by six yesterday.
This week, three states have shifted from Toss-Up to Leans Romney in the Rasmussen Reports Electoral College projections—Florida, North Carolina and Missouri. The race remains a Toss-Up in Ohio, Virginia and Wisconsin.
Again, that is very cautious. Other surveys give Virginia to Romney.
A president’s job approval rating is one of the best indicators for assessing his chances of reelection. Typically, the president’s job approval rating on Election Day will be close to the share of the vote he receives. Currently, 47% of voters say they at least somewhat approve of the president's job performance. Fifty-two percent (52%) at least somewhat disapprove.
That five-point gap is the largest that Rasmussen has shown in some time. I'll accept those numbers on election day. But remember that we vote by state, by electoral vote.
October 20, 2012