SHORT TAKES ON THE DRIFTING WRECKAGE – AT 10:58 P.M. ET:

POLLING – A bunch of polls released today show movement in Romney's direction, but not enough to guarantee the election.  Increasingly, observers are talking about the possibility of Romney's winning the popular vote and losing the electoral vote.  It happened in 2000, when Bush defeated Gore by electoral votes.  The battle now is for states.  Romney has made progress, Obama hasn't, but it is very tight.

ROMNEY ROMPS IN FAVORABILITY – One of the problems that dogged Mitt Romney before the first debate was that people didn't think they liked him.  But when they saw Romney and Obama on the same stage, that began to change.  Now Romney is beating Obama in two major favorability surveys.  Pew has Romney on top, 50 to 49.  Gallup also has Romney on top, 52 to 51, although I wonder why the latter adds up to more than 100%.  Even the Daily Kos poll has Romney up on favorability, 49 to 46%.  Part of this, I think, is Romney's performance.  The other part is that Obama seems less likable these days.  He's running a very raw campaign.

BEIRUT – There was an act of terror in Beirut today and the White House actually called it an act of terror.  I guess there are no new YouTube videos they're aware of.  The bombing in Beirut was the city's worst in four years and killed at least eight people, including the head of the intelligence unit of Lebanon's Internal Security Forces.  He was known as a foe of Syria, a fact that has led observers to fear expansion of the Syrian civil war into Lebanon.

OCTOBER SURPRISE? – The term has become part of our political vocabulary, and many political pundits expect some kind of October surprise from President Obama.  It could be military action in Libya, but there is also some buzz about a financial surprise, possibly a new proposal by Obama to lower taxes or expand government benefits by some kind of executive order.  Or, the Obamans may be holding some last-minute revelation about Mitt Romney.  But something is definitely expected by many.

October 19, 2012