STEADY SO FAR – AT 9:46 A.M. ET:  Rasmussen is out with the first reliable poll taken partially after the debate.   Two thirds of today's report was compiled before the debate, one third after.  The result is:  No real change. 

If he saw any debate effect, Rasmussen would report it.

The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Thursday shows Mitt Romney attracting support from 49% of voters nationwide, while President Obama earns the vote from 47%. Two percent (2%) prefer some other candidate, and another two percent (2%) are undecided.

Obama is getting 85% of the vote from Democrats, while Romney is supported by 87% of Republicans. Among voters not affiliated with either major party, the GOP challenger has a nine-point advantage.

The president leads by four among women, while Romney is up by 10 among men.

A four-point lead for Obama among women is pathetic.  Women have been part of Obama's base.  If this is the best he can do, he may be cooked. 

A president’s job approval rating is one of the best indicators for assessing his chances of reelection. Typically, the president’s job approval rating on Election Day will be close to the share of the vote he receives. Currently, 48% of voters say they at least somewhat approve of the president's job performance. Fifty-one percent (51%) at least somewhat disapprove.

COMMENT:  We'll be watching the polling over the next two days.  Saturday morning's report will be the first in which all the responses will have come after the debate.  If there is no change, Obama will have failed.  That doesn't guarantee Romney's election, but it would be a major setback for the president.   It would probably mean that a solid verdict had been rendered on his presidency.

The final debate is Monday night.  By Tuesday we will be within two weeks of the election.  If Obama can't move the meter, moving vans will be called.

I have a fine mover I can recommend to the Obamas.  Nice guys.  Very careful with TV sets and fine dishes.

October 18, 2012