BACK TO REALITY – AT 8:53 A.M. ET:  The Labor Department just released the weekly report on jobless claims, and it isn't good.  From Bloomberg:

More Americans than forecast filed applications for unemployment benefits last week, reflecting an unwinding of adjustments for seasonal swings at the start of a quarter.

Jobless claims increased by 46,000 to 388,000 in the week ended Oct. 13 from a revised 342,000 the prior period that was the lowest since February 2008, Labor Department figures showed today in Washington. The median forecast of 49 economists surveyed by Bloomberg called for a rise in claims to 365,000.

The typical pattern of large increases in unadjusted claims at the start of the quarter seems to have shifted by a week in one state, causing the adjusted data to become volatile, a Labor Department spokesman said as the figures were released to the press. Through the ups and downs, the level of firing has been little changed, indicating that a lack of hiring is the main reason payrolls have failed to strengthen.

COMMENT:  Yup.  Lack of hiring.  This report doesn't bode well for the more important job creation number, to be issued at the end of the month.  It'll be the last such report before the election.

Recovery?  What recovery?  There is no real recovery.  Yes, the mainstream media, essentially today a branch of the Obama administration, tries to find every shrewd of "good" news in the economic numbers, but the pickings are slim.

Conventional wisdom tells us that a jobless claims figure of 400,000 is very dangerous territory.  We're within 12,000, and Obama has been flying in Air Force One for four years.

Not too much longer, we hope.

October 18, 2012