THE FINAL FOUR – AT 9:05 A.M. ET:  We are down to the final four weeks of the campaign.  Four weeks from today will mark the last day of electioneering.  Then America votes in one of the most critical elections of our time.  The country will have the clearest of choices between the future, represented by Mitt Romney, and the past, represented by Barack Obama.

Our side is now encouraged by Romney's spectacular debate performance last week.  He deserves full credit.  He was out there alone, and he delivered.  The president of the United States showed up.  Nothing more need be said.

The result has been a jolt in the polls.  Andrew Malcolm, of IBD, reports the latest polling development, from Gallup:

Based on his commanding debate performance, Republican Mitt Romney has erased President Obama's lead in the most recent days to pull into a tie among registered voters nationally in a brand-new Gallup Tracking Poll.

That's registered voters.  A poll of likely voters generally shows a slightly higher Republican vote.

Gallup's standard tracking poll uses a seven-day rolling average, in this case, the night of the debate and three nights on either side. Obama enjoyed a four- to six-point lead during the three days before the Oct. 3 Denver debate. But in the three days after, that lead evaporated into a dead heat at 47% each.

The survey actually found two movements, that Romney's standing among voters had improved, while Obama's position had faded below half. The seven-day average gives Obama a diminished three-point lead, heading into the campaign's second debate week with but 29 days left. Tracking results this week will reveal the endurance of the Romney bounce.

Gallup's latest survey also found overwhelming agreement that Romney had by far the best debate, with 72% of all debate-watching respondents agreeing, regardless of their favored candidate. This included 49% of Democrats, 70% of independents and 97% of Republicans.

Over the weekend the Rasmussen Reports presidential tracking poll, which uses a three-day rolling average, also confirmed clear movement toward Romney in its first survey conducted entirely after the Wednesday debate.
According to Rasmussen, Romney now leads Obama 49%-47%, with 2% undecided and 2% supporting someone else.

Additionally, the latest Reuters/Ipsos online tracking poll finds movement toward the Republican with Obama's lead shrinking from six points to two, 46%-44%. In that poll, some of Romney's increase comes right out of Obama's column of supporters, presumably softer ones.

All wonderful.  But I hardly have to point out that those figures show progress, not victory.  The progress must be continued, and four weeks is several lifetimes in politics. 

Get set for the ugliest four weeks in presidential electioneering that you've ever seen.  Obama's Chicago guys will throw everything they have at Romney.  I suspect the race card will be played heavily in urban communities to scare people to the polls.  The mainstream media will do its part with true left-wing heroism.  Look for some last-minute revelation about Romney, probably in The New York Times.  And Obama has the power of incumbency.  He may pull an October surprise, even the use of military action.

There will be a vice-presidential debate this Thursday.  It will be important in demonstrating whether Ryan is up to the national challenge.  I'm optimistic.  But the most important day of this campaign may well be the 16th, when the second presidential debate will be held.  That is the "ratifying" debate, in which Americans will get to see whether the impression they got last week was accurate. 

A different Obama will show up on the 16th.  He will be prepared, engaged, and filled with one-liners.   He will try to be the Obama of 2008.  But he will be ugly if he has to be.  If Romney can win another decisive victory, he may well be on victory road.  A draw will keep this a tight race.

It is far from over.  But things are going our way.  Now the decisive blows must be struck.

October 8, 2012