William Katz:  Urgent Agenda

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YIKES-A-ROOTIE – AT 9:33 A.M. ET:  Some of those last-minute polls that had us a bit discouraged now turn out to have overly sampled Democrats by quite a bit.  Consider the CNN poll:

The poll, released earlier tonight, shows a 49-49 tie among likely voters. But to get that result CNN had to use one of the most skewed samples we’ve seen this campaign (see page 29):

"Among those likely voters, 41% described themselves as Democrats, 29% described themselves as Independents, and 30% described themselves as Republicans."

A D+11 sample! By comparison, the electorate in 2008, when Obama-mania was at its peak, was merely D+7, according to exit polls.

And then there's the Pew poll, showing Obama up three, the largest lead in any national poll, but with a +6 rating for the Dems, about the same as 2008.  That just ain't gonna happen.

We'll be monitoring polling all day long, and a good part of the night.  At this point it's mostly fun.  We'll know the actual result soon enough, but the record of these polling operations will get a very sober look after the election.  As will the record of the media.

November 5, 2012