William Katz:  Urgent Agenda

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POLLING UPDATE – AT 3:22 P.M. ET:  President Obama has made some gains in national polling.  The new Pew Research poll, the largest poll taken of likely voters, has the race at Obama 50, Romney 47.  In addition, the NBC/Wall Street Journal has Obama up one.  The 

Many others have the race tied.  The RealClearPolitics average of polls, essentially a meaningless but entertaining number, has the race at 47.7 Obama, 47.3 Romney.

It must be admitted that no current national poll shows a Romney lead.  However, turnout on election day provides the greatest poll of all.

A second Pennsylvania poll published today has Obama up by three.  The previous poll published, the famous Susquehanna poll, has the race in Pennsylvania tied.

Based on today's results released so far, the race is still too close to call, but I agree with most pundits, who say that Obama has a slight advantage.  However, all polls have a time lag.  Some of the results posted are based, at least in part, on polling done during and immediately after Hurricane Sandy, when the president had an advantage.  The latest poll published today was started on Thursday.  So we have a three-day lag.  There'll be more results tomorrow.

Turnout, turnout, turnout.

November 4, 2012