THE RACE FOUR DAYS OUT – AT 8:10 A.M. ET:  There are no new dramatic polls to report as we enter the final weekend of the campaign.

There are only political instincts, some based on history, some based on gut feeling.  There seem to be three possible scenarios that knowledgeable people are talking about:  1) a narrow Obama win in which swing states that were trending toward Romney just don't trend for enough to give him victory; 2) a narrow Romney win by picking up enough swing states to go someone over the needed 270 electoral votes, to somewhere in the very low 300 range; and 3) a Romney breakout, the result of a last-minute surge among the undecideds and the persuadables, who conclude that the country needs a change.

The third, call it the Dick Morris scenario, is now supported by Wayne Allyn Root, who went to Columbia with Obama, was the Libertarian v.p. candidate in 2008, but is today supporting Romney.  A Las Vegas oddsmaker by trade, he has developed a reputation as a sharp political prognosticator.   He makes the point that, in 1980, Ronald Reagan was well behind Carter in the polls on the weekend before the election.  He predicts:

Add it up. Is there one major group where Obama has gained since 2008? Will anyone in America wake up on Election Day saying, I didn't vote for Obama four years ago, but he's done such a fantastic job, I can't wait to vote for him today. Does anyone feel that a vote for Obama makes their job more secure?

Forget the polls. My gut instincts tell me this will be a historic landslide and a world-class repudiation of Obama's radical and risky socialist agenda. It's Reagan-Carter all over again.

COMMENT:  From his mouth to you know whose ears.  I hope it's true.  My own guess, and it's only a guess, is that, if Romney wins, it will be a narrow victory.  Ah, but I would like both Dick Morris and Wayne Allyn Root to have reason to gloat on election night.

November 2,  2012