BULLETIN – RASMUSSEN TIED – AT 9:28 A.M. ET:  Advance word on this morning's Rasmussen report is not good.  Obama has apparently tied it up, at 48% each.  That may be statistical noise, or it may be a response to Obama's "commander-in-chief" role during Hurricane Sandy.

Whatever it is, it ain't good.  Rasmussen, in our view, is the most accurate pollster.  He had Romney up four just two weeks ago.  Then it went to two.  Then it went to zero.  This is the opposite of what had been expected, that undecideds would break late for Romney.  A new ABC/Washington Post poll also has it tied at between 48 and 49% for each candidate.

This isthe popular vote.  In the swing states most of the most recent polls favor Obama by slight amounts.

It can still go either way, and we're hoping for a Romney surge in the final days.  As we've said, undecideds and persuadables tend to go for the challenger as the election approaches.  But there are no guarantees.  We'll be watching by the hour.

I don' think I've ever seen it this close.

November 2, 2012