MISSOURI MATCHUP – AT 10:04 A.M. ET:   In a presidential election year, most political attention is focused on the race for the White House.  But we must always remember that both houses of Congress are up for grabs.  Republicans would love to take control of the Senate, and are fighting to keep control of the House.

The Senate race in Missouri is one of the pivotal races this year, and Missouri is a good state to watch, for it often is an indicator of national trends.  I'd say the GOP has a fairly good chance for a pickup.  From The Hill:

Sen. Claire McCaskill (D-Mo.), holds a single-digit lead over all three of her Republican opponents, according to a new poll from a Democratic super-PAC.

McCaskill leads former Missouri state Treasurer Sarah Steelman (R) 45-36, businessman John Brunner 46-38 and Rep. Todd Akin (R-Mo.) 44-39 in the survey released Monday by Majority PAC and conducted by Democratic pollster Mark Mellman.

But McCaskill fails to break 50 percent against any of her potential challengers, suggesting the weakness of the GOP field may have more to say about McCaskill’s advantage in the race than her own popularity among constituents.

One of the most vulnerable incumbents up for reelection in November, McCaskill faces an electorate disenchanted by President Obama and a group of conservative super-PACs eager to tie her to the Democratic president. Obama lags 2 points behind Mitt Romney in Missouri, according to the poll.

COMMENT:  I suspect the GOP will do better once it settles on a nominee.  Primary battles tend to depress a party's vote, but that can be reversed when the party coalesces around one person.  I'm encouraged by Romney's lead, however small, in Missouri.  Romney is actually doing better at this stage in the race than many had expected.  Reagan was trailing Carter badly in May of 1960. 

I'd love to see our side control the Senate, with its powerful committees and its role in confirming or rejecting Supreme Court nominees.  It could happen, but only with good candidates.  Republicans were denied control of the Senate in 2010 because of some very poor candidates in states where victory was possible.

May 14, 2012