BATTLE OF THE POLLS – Strange developments in the polling business.  A new AP poll has Obama up eight points among registered voters.  From The Politico:

Half of registered voters say they would back Obama in November. Forty-two percent favor Romney.

But wait.  Rasmussen, who polls likely voters, dares to dissent this morning:

The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Thursday shows Mitt Romney earning 49% of the vote and President Obama attracting 45% support. Three percent (3%) would vote for a third party candidate, while another two percent (2%) are undecided.

And even Gallup, polling only registered voters, dissents from the AP poll, showing 47% for Romney, 44% for Obama.

COMMENT:  Why the difference?  Well, first of all, polls will differ simply because each has a margin of error, and the exact same people aren't being polled by each organization.

But they also differ because of method.  I haven't seen the internals of the AP poll yet, but I'd guess they oversampled Democrats.  And they may have oversampled sub-groups who register widely, but don't vote on election day.

Polls are snapshots in time.  But two of the three polls noted above indicate serious problems for Mr. Obama.  He should be well ahead of a challenger at this stage of the race, and he apparently isn't.

May 10, 2012